Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 1/28 Review of the NCEP production Suite: Recent Changes...

Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010 NFRA telecon, 1/28

Review of the NCEP production Suite:Recent Changes and Plans

The short version

Hendrik L. TolmanChief, Marine Modeling and Analysis BranchNOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC

[email protected]

WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE WEATHER AND OCEAN SERVICES BEGIN


Mission Statement

The Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch is part of the Environmental Modeling Center.

MMAB provides analysis and real-time forecast guidance (1 – 16 days) on marine meteorological, oceanographic, and cryospheric parameters over the global oceans and coastal areas of the U.S.

Evaluates quality of retrievals of ocean surface data from satellite borne sensors, improves their quality as needed, and examines the impacts of the data on forecast models.

Monitors performance of operational guidance products.


Why MMAB ?

Traditionally part of the EMC support to the NWS (OPC, TPC, Regions, WFOs). Justification: General support of meteorological mission.

From weather to Earth System modeling. Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS) 1974:

NWS responsible for wind waves. NOAA SAB on Ocean modeling 2004 and IOOS-MAST final

report 2008. NCEP to be the backbone for ocean modeling within

NOAA in strong partnership. Focus on global scales (NOPP, Navy, ….). Enable/perform regional/coastal (NOS, IOOS, …) Enable ecosystem modeling.


resources

MMAB resources and collaborations:

MMAB consists of approximately 10 FTE and 15 contractors.

5-10 bodies short of ideal staffing. Collaboration with all groups and branches within EMC.

Total of 51 FTE and approx. 100 contractors. Collaboration within NOAA:

NOS, OAR, NDBC, NMFS, …. Collaboration with other federal government:

Navy, USACE, USGS, COAST Guard, NASA, .. + Int. Academia and industry ….

Too many to mention ….


joint ventures

Collaborations to consolidate operational models on NCO managed compute resources:

NOS ocean circulation, PORTS, tidal and inundation models.

Ecosystems pilot projects. NOS/GLERL water quality for Great Lakes. Chesapeake Bay pilot projects (sea nettles, HAB).

Tsunami modeling with PMEL / ATWC and PTWC.

Enabling organizations outside NCEP to become part of NCEP operational environment,


Wind wave modeling


waves

Wind wave modeling efforts at NCEP are consolidated on the WAVEWATCH III ® model. Developed as NCEP model, but used as a community

modeling framework. Close to open-source approach, but with license and

trademark. Version 3.14 publicly available since July 2009. Many external collaborators.

Federal: NRL, FNMOC, USACE, SHOM. NOPP: Federal + 7 teams from academia. Non NOPP collaborators (URI, LSU, Alkyon, Delft

UT, …..) Many beta-testers. Two wave models based on WAVEWATCH III

elements.


waves

WAVEWATCH III cont’ed:

Present capability: Global multi-grid or mosaic model. Hurricane wave models (to be transitioned). Great Lakes wave models (NAM or NDFD winds). Assimilation of altimeter and buoy data (to be

transitioned). Global wave ensemble

Joint effort with FNMOC, NAEFS/NUOPC.

In the pipeline : Higher spectral resolution of “salt-water” models. Extension of grids to North Pole.


waves

Cont’ed

Great Lakes NDFD driven model fixes in processing of NDFD winds.

Deal with inconsistency between consecutive grid masks in NDFD winds.

Flagging of missing data in SMS. Transitioning of data assimilation to multi-grid model.

Limited resources, no hard time line yet. Adding FNMOC data to ensemble:

No time line yet, waiting for operational data feed from FNMOC.

Minor bug fixes.


waves

Coastal wave modeling requirements have been formulated within the NWS (OSIP 06-093). Based on pilot projects spearheaded by WFO Eureka. Responsibilities to transition to NCEP using localized

WAVEWATCH III: Spiral development with local-central model. Local off-cycle capability. AWIPS-II or local workstation.

Now funded by NOS through HFIP. Toward coupled wave-surge capability in collaboration

with NOS. WAVEWATCH III – ADCIRC capability. NOS ADCIRC model for East Coast for boundary

data. New hires to start April 1 and July 15, 2010.


waves

Miscellaneous issues that we are working on:

Coupling efforts have started. HWRF – HYCOM - WAVEWATCH ESMF (NEMS) version being developed (NRL).

NOPP project (NOAA-USACE-ONR, 2010-2014) to address deep water and shelf physics ($2M/year).

Approx. 2012 model physics upgrade. Approx. 2014 model physics upgrade.

Shallow water (mosaic) applications require alternative grid and solution approaches (sub-km scale resolution):

Generalized curvilinear grids (NRL). Unstructured grids for coastal areas, and coupling to

surge (SHOM).


Ocean Modeling


NOS / NCO

CFSRR group

Present ocean modeling capability at NCEP: 1/12º resolution Real Time Ocean Forecast System for

North Atlantic Ocean. (RTOFS-Atlantic, HYCOM based). Deterministic 5-6 day forecast. Assimilation of most available data with in-house

assimilation schemes. Run once per day.

Emerging global HYCOM capability. MOM3-4 (GFDL) ocean model as part of the coupled

Climate Forecast System (CFS). Supporting MOM4 based Global Ocean Data

Assimilation System (GODAS). Test version of HyCOM-HWRF coupled hurricane model. Emerging NOS capabilities at CCS.

ocean


Ocean modeling focus at MMAB:

RTOFS-Atlantic. Workhorse development platform (1/12°, rotated).

Coupled hurricane modeling. NWS / HFIP focus and funding (1/6°, rotated)..

RTOFS-global. Adopting Navy 1/12° HYCOM for daily run at NCO..

RTOFS-global-coupled. Develop global HYCOM capability (1/4° 1/6° ?).

ocean


RTOFS-Atlantic

Most main issues with operational model have been resolved. Poor model behavior due to

operationalizing, not due to our ability to model.

Main effort on analysis re-engineering (“hands-off” in operations).

Will be main development platform for us.

Two main focus areas: NWS needs (OPC,

weather, hurricane). Community support

(NOS, IOOS, Eco., …)


old

RTOFS-Atlantic upgrade

Potential Temperatures from model (left panel) and observations (right panel) at WOCE section A03

new


RTOFS-HWRF

Coupled hurricane modeling is a main NWS focus. Funding source for much of

my ocean modeling. Presently HYCOM-HWRF

in testing. Very positive results:

Our approach: best possible ocean should give best potential for hurrican weather model. Focus on SST and MLD.

Presently coupling with waves too.


meld

ATMOS.:

HWRF

O(9 & 27 km)

OCEAN:

HYCOM–Regional:

O(8~14 km)

RTOFS-Atlantic

(HYCOM–Basin):

O(4~17 km)

IC

Feature Model Wind

Data Assimilation (SST, SSH, T&S) using 2D/3DVAR

BC

SST

* Wind-stress* Heat Fluxes* Precipitation* Atm. Pressure

Coupled HWRF- HYCOM system

GFS: O(25 km)


ocean

subinertial waves

Cold wake

Real time testing for 2008 hurricane

season (Ike).

Realistic Oceanic Simulation and Response to a

Storm!


RTOFS-Global

Adopting 1/12° global HYCOM from navy (NAVO/NRL). We have been able to run code here. We have established data transfer of initial conditions

from NAVO (Not yet hardened). In-house initialization not before 2015. Operationalization at NCEP delayed 6 months due to

lack of disk space in initial CCS transition. Parallel testing scheduled for end of 2010. Full operational implementation as soon as data

processing issues have been addressed.

Issues: Processing of results including (GODAE) metrics. Data dissemination. Going from Navy to NCEP forcing?


RTOFS-global-coupled

First and foremost a NWS project to improve weather to climate capabilities of NWS/NCEP.

Possible member of multi-model ensemble and/or replacement of MOM4 (no in-house expertise or support)

Building low-resolution RTOFS-Global for application in NEMS. FY2010 pre-ops deliverables:

NEMS coupler for HYCOM with full regridding. Initialization from upscaling of RTOFS-Global-HR. Initialization by using GODAS. Initial assessment of resolution (hor. - vert. - ML).


RTOFS-global-coupled

NCEP Operational Global Weather-Climate (“Seamless”) Forecast System July 23, 2007

A. Operational forecasts

1. All forecasts are Atmosphere-Land-Ocean coupled 2. All systems are ensemble-based except daily, high-resolution run 3. All forecasts initialized with LDAS, GODAS, GSI from GFS initial conditions 4. Physics and dynamics packages may vary

a. Anticipated that the weekly forecast will have most rapid implementations and code changes, seasonal configuration may be one (or at most two) versions behind weekly

Forecast Product

Number of members per refresh period

Runs/day Membership refresh period

Horizontal resolution (ratio, current value)

Forecast Length

Initialization technique

Computing resource

ratio* Daily-hires 1 4 daily 1.0, T382 15 days GSI 1.0

Weekly 80 80 daily 0.5, T170 15 days ET breeding 2.5

Monthly 56 8 weekly (7 days)

0.5, T170 60 days ?? 1

Seasonal 60 2 monthly 0.33, T126 1 year Lagged analysis 2x daily

0.44

Calculated from ratio of runs/day * forecast length * expense of each forecast#

# expense ratio is resolution**3

Executing the weather-climate strategy


Sea Ice and SST


sea ice

Northern and Southern Hemisphere daily ice

concentration products.

Key issue: modeling at weather time scales


SST

Used as a separate product, and for validating ocean

modeling.

Most issues with coastal SSTs removed with

implementation this week.


Final big picture

We want to provide (modeling) services to provide what our customers need. Waves: go-to group for NOAA. Ocean: Part of national backbone, strong collaboration

needed. SST/ice, part of international community.

We want your help and feedback, specially on the ocean modeling side, but ….

Know what our missions and mandates are, and tune your expectations accordingly ….

Tolman et al, Feb. 19, 2010NFRA telecon, 1/28 Review of the NCEP production Suite: Recent Changes...

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