Todayʼs Overview

Lecture:PolicyPrinciplesofInterna1onalAc1onGlobalwarmingtheory

Ac*vity:PolicyQues1ons

ReadingforTomorrow:IPCCSummaryforPolicyMakers(18pp)NYTWhiplashar1cle

Slatemagazinear1cleonjournalismofdissent(op1onal)

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• major reports in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007

• Authors shared Noble Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007

• Three “working group” books: • WG1 = The Scientific Basis • WG2 = Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability • WG = Mitigation

• "Summary for Policymakers" is required reading for tomorrow

IPCC – Scientists Perspective

History of IPCC WG1 assertions concerning the detection of human-induced global warming

1990: observed warming is "generally consistent" with predictions from climate models

2007: the first quantitative claim of confidence (>90%). This is a big deal. It asserts that global warming has become a "mature" scientific theory.

2007: "Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

1995: "balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence" on global average temperature

2001: "There is new and stronger evidence..." that most of the recent warming is due to human activities

Managing Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Adapta*on(preventharm;dealwithsymptoms):

Mi*ga*on(preventclimatechange;dealwithcause):

ReduceemissionsofGHGsinordertoreducetheamountofclimatechangethattakesplace,e.g.:

‐energyconserva*on‐carbon‐freeenergy(wind,solar,nuclear)‐carbonsequestra*on

Alterhumanstructuresandprac*cesinordertoreducetheharmfuleffectsofclimatechange,e.g.:

‐improvedhealthcarepoliciesforheat‐stress‐switchtoheat‐resistantcrops‐builddikestodealwithsea‐levelrise

Human problems: Beyond Global Warming

Holdren et al. (2008) "Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-Being", Science, 319, 424-434. 

Managing Climate Change: Current International Agreements

UNCED United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 1992

Included the Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCC

Kyoto Protocol, 1997/2001

Principles of Current International Agreements

•  Sustainable Development

•  Precautionary Principle

•  Polluter-pays principle

•  Principle of equity

In-class activity...

2. Define in your own words

•  Sustainable Development

•  Precautionary Principle

1. What does this acronym stand for:

IPCC WG I SPM

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Working Group 1, Summary for Policymakers

"The Earth Summit" 1992, Rio de Janeiro

Rio Declaration on Environment and Development

Representatives of 160 nations met to discuss: - resources needed for development, and - long-term protection of the environment.

The agreed upon solution that connects these two issues is "Sustainable development".

Rio Declaration lists 27 core principles.

Signed by all 160 nations, including the United States.

Ratified by the United States Senate giving the force of law within this country.

Rio Declaration 1992: Sustainable Development*

Principle 1: "Human beings are at the center of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature."

Principle 7: "States shall cooperate . . . to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystem."

*"developmentthatmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenera1onstomeettheirownneeds."[BruntlandCommission,quotedinIPCC2007,WGII,TSp.75]

Rio Declaration 1992: Precautionary Principle

Principle 15: "Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation."

Rio Declaration 1992: Polluter-Pays Principle

"thepollutershould,inprinciple,bearthecostofpollu1on"

Principle 16: "National authorities should endeavor to promote the internationalization of environmental costs and the use of economic instruments, taking into account the approach that the polluter should, in principle, bear the cost of pollution, with due regard to the public interest and without distorting internatinoal trade and investment."

Rio Declaration 1992: Principle of Equity

equity:interna1onalandintergenera1onal

Principle 3: "The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations."

Principle 5: "All States and all people shall cooperate in the essential task of eradicating poverty as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development..."

UNFCCC, 1992

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (extracts, text, p.243)

International treaty that emerged from the Rio Earth Summit

"The ultimate objective of this Convention... is to achieve... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

- Signed by the U.S. President, Summer, 1992. - Ratified by the required 2/3 of the U.S. Senate, Fall, 1992.

Kyoto Protocol, 1997 UNFCCC: lofty principles, behavior encouraged Kyoto Protocol: the gory details of mandatory implementation (summarized in text, p.246-249)

Annex 1 Countries: Developed nations that agreed to take the lead in reducing GHG emissions.

Emission Targets: Specific emission levels for each nation (about 5% reduction on average from 1990

emissions to be achieved by 2012) Global Warming Potential (GWP): Relates emissions of any GHG (methane, nitrous oxide, etc) to the equivalent emission of the main GHG, carbon dioxide.

Kyoto Protocol, 1997

- Signed by the U.S. President Clinton in 1997

- never submitted to the Senate for ratification (therefore, never became U.S. law)

- U.S. President Bush officially withdrew in 2005

- treaty comes into effect later in 2005 when Russia adds its signature. (This achieves the requirement that developed countries representing at least 55% of Annex I emissions must sign on.)

Kyoto Mechanisms Complicated! See box on Houghton p. 248 Goal: Specific emission reductions by Annex 1 countries by 2012.

Joint Implementation: Allows developed countries to collaborate in projects that reduce emissions or increase "sinks". (A way of sharing the credit.)

Clean Development Mechanism: Allows developed countries to get credit for projects that reduce emissions in undeveloped countries. (This aids the goal of technology transfer, essential to long-term reductions by the entire world.)

Emissions Trading: Allows developed countries to purchase 'assigned amount units' from other developed countries. Creates a market in "carbon credits".

About 1.6 billion people around the world have no electricity (25% of all people)

They burn wood and dung, which often leads to poor air pollution

indoor air pollution is one of the world’s top 10 causes of mortality or premature death

Ozonehole–Antarc*cozonehole

•  the Antarctic ozone “hole” is a region of extreme ozone loss (up to 60%) that has been appearing since the 1970s.

•  Very harmful locally in spring, then mixes and depletes ozone globally

•  Caused by Chlorine from human-made freone (CFC)

Poses strict limits on CFC emissions and other ozone destroying agents

•  decrease Cl to levels as before ozone hole (2 ppb) by 2060

•  decrease Cl to natural level, within a century

Montreal Protocol (1987)

Why has the effort to fight ozone depletion been so successful? (1) CFCs and ozone destruction connected by sound science. (2) Chemical industry fearing federal regulation, developed viable alternatives to CFCs, within a year or two. (3) Equity issues between developed and developing nations were recognized. • developing nations phased out later • fund established by the wealthy countries global commitment to solving the problem.

Managing Planet Earth . . .

A new phase in human history An enormous challenge...

Are we up to it?

1 Ansley, Annemarie Kaza2 Arif, Khalida3 Brooks, Kelly Christine4 Burger, Corinne Margaret5 Daniel, Noel Marie1 Dion, Steven Thomas2 Doherty, Blaine Timothy3 Flam, Joshua Eliot4 Gleason, Kylea Athena5 Guthrie, Brita Alicia6 Hart, Russell McDermid1 Heath, Elizabeth Ann2 Helms, Hillary Sarah3 Kimani, Maureen Wangari4 May, Michael Patrick5 Nichols, Andrew Peter6 Omidi, Tayler1 Paulsson, Kerstin Elizabeth2 Poole, William Wyatt3 Rhoades, Christine Marie4 Sistek, Katie Francis5 Thomas, Joel Patrick6 Tomaras, Erin Nicole1 Voss, Sarah Rose6 Yang, Hao-Lin

GROUPS

SurveyQues*on1

Howmuchwarmingsofar?

SurveyQues*on2

UnanimousagreementthatthedominantcauseisGHGemissions

SurveyQues*on3

Confidencecausedbyhumans

Outline

i.GlobalEnergyBalance

ii.TheGreenhouseEffect

Concepts/vocabulary

‐radia*on:aformofenergy‐solarradia*onandterrestrialradia*on‐Stefan‐BoltzmannLaw:allbodiesemitradia*on;warmerbodiesemitmore

Today: Global Warming Theory

Electromagne*c(EM)Radia*on

• Calledradia*onforshort

• Allbodiesandsomegaseswithtemperatureabove0Kemitsradia*on

• Radia*onisanenergyfluxF(unitsofW/m2)

• Radia*onpropagatesthroughspaceatspeedoflight

• Radia*onisclassifiedbywavelengthλ

(a)hasalongwavelength

(b)hasashortwavelength

Whichoneismoreenerge*c?Why

Whatcolorofvisiblelightismostenerge*c?

Whatwavelengthsdoesthesunpredominantlyemit?

Whereandwhatisultravioletlight?

Whereandwhatisinfraredlight?

InfraredRadia*on,IR

• Notvisible

• Alsocalled"thermalradia*on"or"heatenergy”withregardtomaaeronEarth

• Alsocalled“terrestrialradia*on”

Radia*onandMaaer

Absorp*onofradia*oncausesmaaertowarmup(orgainheat)

Emissionofradia*oncausesmaaertocooldown(orloseheat)

Whatareexamplesofeach?

Temperatureofbodyiscri*calforWavelengthandEnergyoftheradia*on

HigherTemitsatshorterwavelengths(Wien’sLaw)

HigherTemitsmoretotalenergy(Stefan‐BoltzmannLaw)

ShortwaveandLongwave

Solarandterrestrial

visibleandinfrared

Whatdothesepairsoftermsreferto?