Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono...

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Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins

Transcript of Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono...

Page 1: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Today

Inverse trig review

Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions

Mono-mono twins

Page 2: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trigf(x) = sin(x) ---> f-1(x) = arcsin(x)

sin(x)

Page 3: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trigf(x) = sin(x) ---> f-1(x) = arcsin(x)

Flip sin(x) about y=x.

sin(x)

Page 4: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trigf(x) = sin(x) ---> f-1(x) = arcsin(x)

Flip sin(x) about y=x.

Many angles (x) have the same sin(x) so mirror image is not a function - must choose favourite values for arcsin.

sin(x)

Page 5: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trigf(x) = sin(x) ---> f-1(x) = arcsin(x)

Flip sin(x) about y=x.

Many angles (x) have the same sin(x) so mirror image is not a function - must choose favourite values for arcsin.

sin(x)

Page 6: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trigf(x) = sin(x) ---> f-1(x) = arcsin(x)

Flip sin(x) about y=x.

Many angles (x) have the same sin(x) so mirror image is not a function - must choose favourite values for arcsin.

sin(x)

arcsin(x)

Page 7: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trigf(x) = sin(x) ---> f-1(x) = arcsin(x)

Flip sin(x) about y=x.

Many angles (x) have the same sin(x) so mirror image is not a function - must choose favourite values for arcsin.

sin(x)

arcsin(x)

Page 8: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trigf(x) = sin(x) ---> f-1(x) = arcsin(x)

Flip sin(x) about y=x.

Many angles (x) have the same sin(x) so mirror image is not a function - must choose favourite values for arcsin.

sin(x)

not arcsin(x)

arcsin(x)

Page 9: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

The domain of arcsin is...

(A) (-π/2, π/2)

(B) [-π/2, π/2]

(C) [0, π]

(D) (-1, 1)

(E) [-1, 1]

Page 10: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

The domain of arcsin is...

(A) (-π/2, π/2)

(B) [-π/2, π/2]

(C) [0, π]

(D) (-1, 1)

(E) [-1, 1]

Page 11: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

The range for arcsin(x) is...

(A) [ -1, 1 ]

(B) [ 0, π ]

(C) [ -π, π ]

(D) [ -π/2, π/2 ]

(E) ( -infinity, infinity )

Page 12: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

The range for arcsin(x) is...

arcsin(x)

(A) [ -1, 1 ]

(B) [ 0, π ]

(C) [ -π, π ]

(D) [ -π/2, π/2 ]

(E) ( -infinity, infinity )

Page 13: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trig

Which of the following is false?

(A) cos(arctan(sqrt(3))) = 1/2

(B) sin(arccos(1/2)) = sqrt(3)/2

(C) arctan(1) = π/4

(D) arcsin(1/2) = π/3

(E) sin(3π/2) = -1

Note: cos-1(x) = arccos(x), tan-1(x) = arctan(x).

Page 14: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Inverse trig

Which of the following is false?

(A) cos(arctan(sqrt(3))) = 1/2

(B) sin(arccos(1/2)) = sqrt(3)/2

(C) arctan(1) = π/4

(D) arcsin(1/2) = π/3

(E) sin(3π/2) = -1

Page 15: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Derivatives of inverse trig functions

Page 16: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Derivatives of inverse trig functions

For ANY inverse function, find its derivative implicitly (doc cam)…

Page 17: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Derivatives of inverse trig functions

For ANY inverse function, find its derivative implicitly (doc cam)…

y = arcsin(x)

sin(y) = x <--- rewrite in inverted mode

cos(y) y’ = 1 <--- take implicit derivative

y’ = 1/cos(y) = 1/cos(arcsin(x)) <--- solve for y’

Page 18: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

cos(arcsin(x)) = . . .

(A) sqrt(1-x2)

(B) 1/sqrt(1-x2)

(C) x/sqrt(1-x2)

(D) sqrt(1-x2)/x

(E) 1/x

Page 19: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

cos(arcsin(x)) = . . .

(A) sqrt(1-x2)

(B) 1/sqrt(1-x2)

(C) x/sqrt(1-x2)

(D) sqrt(1-x2)/x

(E) 1/x

Page 20: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

cos(arcsin(x)) = . . .

(A) sqrt(1-x2)

(B) 1/sqrt(1-x2)

(C) x/sqrt(1-x2)

(D) sqrt(1-x2)/x

(E) 1/x

Page 21: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

cos(arcsin(x)) = . . .

(A) sqrt(1-x2)

(B) 1/sqrt(1-x2)

(C) x/sqrt(1-x2)

(D) sqrt(1-x2)/x

(E) 1/x arcsin(x)

Page 22: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

cos(arcsin(x)) = . . .

(A) sqrt(1-x2)

(B) 1/sqrt(1-x2)

(C) x/sqrt(1-x2)

(D) sqrt(1-x2)/x

(E) 1/x

x

arcsin(x)

Page 23: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

cos(arcsin(x)) = . . .

(A) sqrt(1-x2)

(B) 1/sqrt(1-x2)

(C) x/sqrt(1-x2)

(D) sqrt(1-x2)/x

(E) 1/x

x1

arcsin(x)

Page 24: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

cos(arcsin(x)) = . . .

(A) sqrt(1-x2)

(B) 1/sqrt(1-x2)

(C) x/sqrt(1-x2)

(D) sqrt(1-x2)/x

(E) 1/x

x1

arcsin(x)sqrt(1-x2)

Page 25: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Derivatives of inverse trig functions

For any inverse function, find its derivative implicitly...

y = arcsin(x)

sin(y) = x <--- rewrite in inverted mode

cos(y) y’ = 1 <--- take implicit derivative

y’ = 1/cos(y) = 1/cos(arcsin(x)) <--- solve for y’

Page 26: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Derivatives of inverse trig functions

For any inverse function, find its derivative implicitly...

y = arcsin(x)

sin(y) = x <--- rewrite in inverted mode

cos(y) y’ = 1 <--- take implicit derivative

y’ = 1/cos(y) = 1/cos(arcsin(x)) <--- solve for y’

y’ = 1/sqrt(1-x2)

Page 27: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Wrap up example...

A “real-life” optimization problem starring

least squares fitting,

Hill functions,

exponential decay,

two very small people,

a very serious question about survival.

Page 28: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculus

Page 29: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

Page 30: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

based on emotional responses,

Page 31: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

based on emotional responses,

with insufficient information

Page 32: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

based on emotional responses,

with insufficient information

without thinking carefully and

Page 33: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

based on emotional responses,

with insufficient information

without thinking carefully and

without even knowing that they could do otherwise.

Page 34: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

based on emotional responses,

with insufficient information

without thinking carefully and

without even knowing that they could do otherwise.

Sometimes this is just fine.

Page 35: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

based on emotional responses,

with insufficient information

without thinking carefully and

without even knowing that they could do otherwise.

Sometimes this is just fine.

Other times, they should have used math.

Page 36: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Why I teach calculusPeople often make decisions

based on emotional responses,

with insufficient information

without thinking carefully and

without even knowing that they could do otherwise.

Sometimes this is just fine.

Other times, they should have used math.

Quantitative thinking (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the vehicle).

Page 37: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

The main characters

Page 38: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

The main characters

Page 39: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Pregnancy

Page 40: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

PregnancyFor singletons, full term is 40 weeks.

Page 41: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

PregnancyFor singletons, full term is 40 weeks.

For twins, “full term” is 37 weeks.

Page 42: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

PregnancyFor singletons, full term is 40 weeks.

For twins, “full term” is 37 weeks.

Twins are often premie. Premie survival is uncertain.

Page 43: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

PregnancyFor singletons, full term is 40 weeks.

For twins, “full term” is 37 weeks.

Twins are often premie. Premie survival is uncertain.

Babies delivered at 22 weeks rarely survive.

Page 44: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

PregnancyFor singletons, full term is 40 weeks.

For twins, “full term” is 37 weeks.

Twins are often premie. Premie survival is uncertain.

Babies delivered at 22 weeks rarely survive.

About 50% of babies delivered at 24 weeks survive.

Page 45: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

PregnancyFor singletons, full term is 40 weeks.

For twins, “full term” is 37 weeks.

Twins are often premie. Premie survival is uncertain.

Babies delivered at 22 weeks rarely survive.

About 50% of babies delivered at 24 weeks survive.

By 32 weeks, prospects are very good.

Page 46: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

PregnancyFor singletons, full term is 40 weeks.

For twins, “full term” is 37 weeks.

Twins are often premie. Premie survival is uncertain.

Babies delivered at 22 weeks rarely survive.

About 50% of babies delivered at 24 weeks survive.

By 32 weeks, prospects are very good.

34 weeks is almost the same as full term.

Page 47: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Monochorionic/Monoamniotic twins

~1 in 50,000 pregnancies 1% of twins

~8/yr in Canada

Page 48: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Complications

Cord entanglement

Cord compression

Twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome

Page 49: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Risks and interventions

Page 50: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Risks and interventions

50% of unmonitored mono-mono twins survive to birth.

Page 51: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Risks and interventions

50% of unmonitored mono-mono twins survive to birth.

Survival goes up to 81-95% with monitoring.

Page 52: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Risks and interventions

50% of unmonitored mono-mono twins survive to birth.

Survival goes up to 81-95% with monitoring.

Monitoring involves twice-daily ultrasounds, listening to heart beats for irregularities.

Page 53: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

Risks and interventions

50% of unmonitored mono-mono twins survive to birth.

Survival goes up to 81-95% with monitoring.

Monitoring involves twice-daily ultrasounds, listening to heart beats for irregularities.

Delivery is by scheduled c-section at 32-34 weeks or earlier by emergency c-section if monitoring reveals problems.

Page 54: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Page 55: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Schedule it too late, risk of mono-mono complications goes up.

Page 56: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Schedule it too late, risk of mono-mono complications goes up.

Schedule it too early, risk of death due to prematurity goes up.

Page 57: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Schedule it too late, risk of mono-mono complications goes up.

Schedule it too early, risk of death due to prematurity goes up.

Consider a simple scenario for which analysis is possible (by MATH 102 students)

Page 58: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Schedule it too late, risk of mono-mono complications goes up.

Schedule it too early, risk of death due to prematurity goes up.

Consider a simple scenario for which analysis is possible (by MATH 102 students)

Without monitoring, when should you schedule a c-section?

Page 59: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Collect premie survival data.

100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 60: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Collect premie survival data.

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 61: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Collect premie survival data.

Fit a smooth curve (Hill function).

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 62: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

50%

100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

80%

90% 95% 98%

Page 63: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

50%

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 64: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

Want prob of “surviving until delivery AND surviving as a premie from delivery”:

50%

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 65: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

Want prob of “surviving until delivery AND surviving as a premie from delivery”:

Red x purple50%

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 66: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

Want prob of “surviving until delivery AND surviving as a premie from delivery”:

Red x purple

Optimum at 27 weeks50%

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 67: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

Want prob of “surviving until delivery AND surviving as a premie from delivery”:

Red x purple

Optimum at 27 weeks

Delivery one week later means 2% lower survival probability. That’s 4-6 fewer babies per year in NA.

50%

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Page 68: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

Want prob of “surviving until delivery AND surviving as a premie from delivery”:

Red x purple

Optimum at 27 weeks

Delivery one week later means 2% lower survival probability. That’s 4-6 fewer babies per year in NA.

50%

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

Find max of P (w) =w � 25

k + w � 25e�0.23w

Page 69: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

When to schedule a c-section

Solve #5a, MT2 2012.

Want prob of “surviving until delivery AND surviving as a premie from delivery”:

Red x purple

Optimum at 27 weeks

Delivery one week later means 2% lower survival probability. That’s 4-6 fewer babies per year in NA.

50%

80%

90% 95% 98%100%

Probability of survival, delivered at week w

50%

w

~27 weeks

Find max of P (w) =w � 25

k + w � 25e�0.23w

Page 70: Today - UBCMATH WIKI · Today Inverse trig review Derivatives of inverse (trig) functions Mono-mono twins. ... (not necessarily calculus) is my target (even though calculus is the

The more complicated model - with monitoring

The question: when to start monitoring, when to schedule a (no-later-than) c-section.

Must account for

emergency c-section at any time during monitoring,

false alerts, missed events.

Requires integration and much more data.