T.M.Jayasekera T.M.Jayasekera B Sc. Eng, C Eng, B Sc. Eng, C Eng, MBA,FIE,FIM,FCIWEM,MICE,MSLIM,MSLITADMBA,FIE,FIM,FCIWEM,MICE,MSLIM,MSLITAD

National Consultant National Consultant

UNDP TA on Strengthening Plan UNDP TA on Strengthening Plan Implementation CapabilityImplementation Capability

Ministry of Plan Implementation .Ministry of Plan Implementation .

Results Based Results Based Monitoring and Monitoring and

Evaluation SystemEvaluation System

Challenges Confronting Society in 21st Century

Development Challenges

Alternatives Programmes designed

to attack the problems

Social Challenges

Poverty, Hunger, Mal-nutrition, Child Mortality,

Maternal Mortality, Degrading Environment

Braking families increasing crimes Drug abuse,

child and spouse abuse, teenage pregnancy

Scarce Resource – Tough Choices :- Cancel some programmes to continue others

Programmes Evaluation

What is Working

Poorly

What is more

effective

What is Working

Well

What is less

effective

Traditional Project Monitoring System to Traditional Project Monitoring System to speed-up Implementationspeed-up Implementation

Implementation Implementation Failures Failures Low Foreign Aid DisbursementLow Foreign Aid Disbursement

Disbursement RatioDisbursement Ratio Sri LankaSri Lanka 13.12%13.12% (Target 20%)(Target 20%) China China 29.82%29.82% ThailandThailand 37.14%37.14% VietnamVietnam 17.87% (ADB 2004)17.87% (ADB 2004)

Sick Projects/Sick Projects/ Problems ProjectsProblems Projects Time OverrunTime Overrun Loan Cancellations Loan Cancellations

Monitorable Work Plan with Financial / Physical targetMonitorable Work Plan with Financial / Physical target Monitor Financial and Physical Progress (formats)Monitor Financial and Physical Progress (formats) Identify short falls / Gaps – issues – Remedial Action.Identify short falls / Gaps – issues – Remedial Action. Early warning Signal – AlertsEarly warning Signal – Alerts M&E Mechanism – LM Meetings – Back to Office Report – PMCM&E Mechanism – LM Meetings – Back to Office Report – PMC Foreign Aid Utilization – 2003 – 14%Foreign Aid Utilization – 2003 – 14% 2004 – 20%2004 – 20%

Implementation Progress Implementation Progress alone not sufficient:alone not sufficient:

Project Failures and Project Failures and Declining “Results”Declining “Results”

PS47%

GS44%

US9%

US PS GS

ADB Projects 2004

Concept of RBME Concept of RBME Tracks performance of a Tracks performance of a

projects based onprojects based onImplementation Progress Implementation Progress

(Physical / financial)(Physical / financial)Development Objectives Development Objectives

(Benefits / effects and Impacts)(Benefits / effects and Impacts)

Implementation ProgressImplementation Progress may may not necessarily lead to not necessarily lead to satisfactory achievement of satisfactory achievement of development objectives development objectives

Results Management CultureResults Management Culture

Input Outputs ImpactEffect

The Logical FrameworkThe Logical FrameworkLFA is an analytical tool forLFA is an analytical tool for objective oriented project objective oriented project planning and managementplanning and management including Monitoring and including Monitoring and Evaluation. It is a way of structuring the main elements of Evaluation. It is a way of structuring the main elements of a project, highlighting logical linkages between inputs, a project, highlighting logical linkages between inputs, planned activities and expected results. In the planned activities and expected results. In the development processdevelopment processIf the inputs are available then activities will take place.If the inputs are available then activities will take place.If activities take place then the outputs would be If activities take place then the outputs would be produced. produced. If the outputs are produced then the purpose will be If the outputs are produced then the purpose will be achieved.achieved.If purpose is achieved, it will contribute to the fulfillment If purpose is achieved, it will contribute to the fulfillment of goal.of goal.

Input Activities Output Purpose Goal

Input Outputs GoalPurpose

MenMaternalMoneyManagement

Rehabilitation of Tanks, canals, Sluice gates and distribution channels

Functional Irrigation Scheme

Increased AcreageCropping IntensifyAccess to water

Increased ProductionIncreased EmploymentImproved Living standard

Activities

Implementation Results

Project LogicProject Logic

The model describes as to how these The model describes as to how these activities could conceivably achieve activities could conceivably achieve the stated goals and objectives the stated goals and objectives (Results Chain)(Results Chain)

A specification of what must be done A specification of what must be done to achieve the desired goals.to achieve the desired goals.

Programme model conveys the Programme model conveys the linkages between program goals and linkages between program goals and objectives and progrmme action. i.e. objectives and progrmme action. i.e. establishes the link between the establishes the link between the problem and the programme.problem and the programme.

Programme Theory

Input Outputs ImpactsOutcome

Water pipesTaps Advice etc.

Installation of pipes. training, involving women community management

20 water taps installed; 10000 safe gallons p.a.

Water borne diseases reducedLess diarrheaMore time available to women

Improved living conditions to womenImproved health situation

Activities

Water Supply Project

Programme TheoryProgramme Theory

Log Frame Matrix IntroductionLog Frame Matrix Introduction

The Log Frame provides a one-page summary of:The Log Frame provides a one-page summary of:

WHYWHY a project is carried outa project is carried out

WHATWHAT the project is expected to achievethe project is expected to achieve

HOWHOW the project is going to achieve these resultsthe project is going to achieve these results

WHICHWHICH external factors are crucial for the success of the external factors are crucial for the success of the projectproject

HOWHOW we can assess the success of the projectwe can assess the success of the project

WHEREWHERE we find the data required to assess the success we find the data required to assess the success of the projectof the project

WHATWHAT the project will costthe project will cost

THE LOGICAL FRAMEWORKTHE LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

- Tool for better Project Cycle Management- Tool for better Project Cycle Management

EVALUATIONDESIGN/

APPRAISALLOG FRAME

IMPLEMENTATION AND MONITORING

IDENTIFICATION

Goal Purpose

Outputs Activities

Outputs Activities

Goal Purpose

Project Planning Matrix / Logical Framework MatrixProject Planning Matrix / Logical Framework Matrix

Note 1 : Emphasis on developing performance indicators

Note 2 : The Project Management should be able to guarantee the project outputs. The immediate objective is beyond their direct control

Hierarchy of Objective

Verifiable Indicators

Means of Verification

Important Assumptions

GOAL Measuring the achievement of the GOAL

PURPOSE Measuring the achievement of the PURPOSE

OUTPUTS Measuring the achievement of the OUTPUTS

INPUTS Summary of the project inputs: COSTS AND RESOURCES

Definition and TerminologyDefinition and Terminology

Input - Resources (Men, Material, Money, Management)

Output - Physical accomplishment that the project management should be able to guarantee.

Purpose - The immediate objective or effect which is expected to be achieved as the result of the project

Goal - The ultimate (long term) overall objective of the project

OVI - Set of criteria's, indicators or measures to verify achievement of objectives at different levels.

This includes direct or proxy (indirect) indicators. Objectively verifiable means, different independent observers would come to the same conclusion as to the status of achievement.

LFA Contd..LFA Contd..

MOV - The means, methods and sources which permit OVI to be measured in precise term.

Assumption- These are important events, conditions decisions that must exist if the project is to succeed but which are

outside the direct control of the project management. These are linked to different levels in the project planning matrix

Log Frame : Vertical LogicLog Frame : Vertical Logic

Overall Overall GoalGoal

AssumptioAssumptionsns

Vertical Vertical LogicLogic

Project Project PurposePurpose

AssumptioAssumptionsns

Results/ Results/ OutputsOutputs

AssumptioAssumptionsns

ActivitieActivities/ s/ InputsInputs

AssumptioAssumptionsns

Log Frame : Horizontal LogicLog Frame : Horizontal Logic

Overall Overall

GoalGoalIndicatorIndicator Means of Means of

verificationverification

Horizontal Horizontal LogicLogic

Project Project PurposePurpose

IndicatorIndicator Means of Means of verificationverification

Results/ Results/ OutputsOutputs

IndicatorIndicator Means of Means of verificationverification

Activities/ Activities/ InputsInputs

Specification of inputsSpecification of inputs

Basic StructureBasic Structurea.a. Vertical LogicVertical Logicb.b. Horizontal LogicHorizontal Logic

Vertical LogicVertical Logic This identifies what project intends to do, clarifies the logical This identifies what project intends to do, clarifies the logical linkages between means and ends, and specifies uncertainties linkages between means and ends, and specifies uncertainties concerning the project. The elements of vertical logic areconcerning the project. The elements of vertical logic are

1.1. Hierarchy of project objectives:Hierarchy of project objectives:Input, output and purpose are specific to project, while Input, output and purpose are specific to project, while higher level-Goal-relates the project to the programme higher level-Goal-relates the project to the programme

of which project is a partof which project is a part

2.2. Casual linkages within the hierarchy:Casual linkages within the hierarchy:Means-end relationship.Means-end relationship.IF inputs are provided THEN output will be IF inputs are provided THEN output will be

produced……..produced……..

3.3. Important Assumptions:Important Assumptions:

-- Assumption at each level are linked to different levels Assumption at each level are linked to different levels in the in the LFM.LFM.

““IFIF the planed outputs are proceed the planed outputs are proceed and IFand IF the the important assumptions are valid important assumptions are valid THEN THEN

the project the project purpose will be achieved”purpose will be achieved”

-- Assumptions are weighted according to importance Assumptions are weighted according to importance and and probability.probability.

4.4. The notion of hypothesis:The notion of hypothesis:

-- Success at each lower level of vertical logic does not Success at each lower level of vertical logic does not guarantee success at ultimate Goal level. guarantee success at ultimate Goal level.

THE LOGICAL FRAMEWORKTHE LOGICAL FRAMEWORKImportant Assumptions:Important Assumptions:

Describe the external risks to the Describe the external risks to the projectproject

Key points:Key points: Both the criticality and probability of assumptions Both the criticality and probability of assumptions

should be assessed.should be assessed. Risks should, as far as possible be ‘internalized’ by Risks should, as far as possible be ‘internalized’ by

redesigning the project. This leads to stronger projects.redesigning the project. This leads to stronger projects.

Narrative Summary

Verifiable Indicators

Means of Verification

Important Assumptions

GOAL Assumptions about external factors for sustaining the benefits of the project.

PURPOSE Assumptions about external factors for achieving the GOAL.

OUTPUTS Assumptions about external factors for achieving the PURPOSE.

ACTIVITIES Assumptions about external factors for achieving the OUTPUTS

The Logical FrameworkThe Logical Framework

CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIPSCAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS

Goal

Purpose

Outputs .

Activities

.

Assumptions

Assumptions

.

Assumptions

.

1 4

Assessment of AssumptionsAssessment of Assumptions1st Questions: “Is the assumption important1st Questions: “Is the assumption important

Yes No Don’t include this oneDon’t include this one

2nd Question: “How likely will it occur”2nd Question: “How likely will it occur”

Not likely

Almost certain

Quite likely

Don’t include this one eitherDon’t include this one either

Put this assumption into your Project Planning MatrixPut this assumption into your Project Planning Matrix

Project Management mustProject Management mustmonitor it andmonitor it andif possible influence itif possible influence it

3rd Questions: “Can the project be re-designed”3rd Questions: “Can the project be re-designed”

Yes

No

Redesign project!Redesign project!

Plan activities to influence assumptionsPlan activities to influence assumptions

Killer assumption!Killer assumption!

Warn decision makers!Warn decision makers!

Stop!Stop!

Horizontal LogicHorizontal Logic“ “ The objective of the horizontal logic is the The objective of the horizontal logic is the MEASUREMENT of the resources and results of a project, MEASUREMENT of the resources and results of a project, through OVI and MOV” (CIDA)through OVI and MOV” (CIDA)

1.1. Objectively Verifiable IndicatorObjectively Verifiable Indicator-- Measures (direct or Indirect) to verify to what extent Measures (direct or Indirect) to verify to what extent Input, Input, Output, Purpose and Goal is achieved. (Input Output, Purpose and Goal is achieved. (Input indicators, Output indicators, Purpose indicators, Goal indicators, Output indicators, Purpose indicators, Goal indicators) indicators)

-- Measurement can beMeasurement can beQuantitative (e.g. Km of road rehabilitation)Quantitative (e.g. Km of road rehabilitation)Qualitative (e.g. Farmers cooperative functioning Qualitative (e.g. Farmers cooperative functioning

effectively)effectively)Behavioral (e.g Increased use of sanitary facilities)Behavioral (e.g Increased use of sanitary facilities)

Qualitative indicators should be made measurable.Qualitative indicators should be made measurable.

-- Direct indicators should be supplemented Direct indicators should be supplemented by by indirect (proxy) indicators (e.g. indirect indirect (proxy) indicators (e.g. indirect wealth wealth indicator may be indicator may be quality of house quality of house construction construction materials, ownership of materials, ownership of bicycles/radio)bicycles/radio)

-- Properties of Goal indicatorProperties of Goal indicator

Specific Specific Measurable Measurable AchievableAchievableRealisticRealisticTime-boundTime-bound

2. Means of Verification (MOV)2. Means of Verification (MOV)

Secondary Education Improvement Secondary Education Improvement ProjectProject

Goal (Impact)

Purpose (Effect)

Outputs .

Inputs .Imp

lem

enta

tion

Res

ult

s

• Improved literacy rate• Employable workforce -

Absorption rate by Industries

• Increased enrolment rate• Less Dropout rate• Improved quality of teaching –

students pass rate

• No of teachers trained• No of text books supplied• Curriculum Development – No of

modules completed• No. of school buildings constructed • Facilities (computers, drinking

water, toilets, electricity)

• Funds spent

Key Performance Key Performance IndicatorsIndicators

QualitiesQualities S – Specific S – Specific M – MeasurableM – Measurable A – Achievable A – Achievable R – RealisticR – Realistic T – Time boundT – Time bound

Setting KPIs Setting KPIs

Baseline Indicator

Level

Desired Level of Improvement (Intervention)

Target Performance

Benchmark =

Issues and ChallengesIssues and Challenges

LFA be incorporated into design stage of the Project

Unintended effects and impacts not covered in the LFA

Highly optimistic performance target setting is dangerous as it would finally lead to rating of a good project as a failure

Indicators developed may necessitate the conduct of field surveys which are time consuming and costly.

Hierarchy of Hierarchy of ObjectivesObjectives

ObjectivelyObjectively

Verifiable IndicatorsVerifiable IndicatorsKey Key

AssumptionsAssumptions

GoalsGoals Reduce poverty in Reduce poverty in

rural area rural area Reduce pressure on Reduce pressure on

coastal fisheries coastal fisheries

ResourcesResources

8000 beneficiaries should increase 8000 beneficiaries should increase

income above poverty line.income above poverty line. Percentage of borrowers below Percentage of borrowers below

poverty line declined from 30% to poverty line declined from 30% to

19%19% No of new off-shore employmentNo of new off-shore employment

Supportive Supportive Government Government policy policy EnvironmentEnvironment

PurposePurpose Promote non-Promote non-fishing fishing

income generating income generating

activities and activities and

establishment of establishment of

entrepreneurial entrepreneurial culture culture

Number of viable micro-Number of viable micro-enterprises enterprises

established established Recovery RateRecovery Rate Number of additional workers Number of additional workers

employed per enterprises employed per enterprises Cost per job generated Cost per job generated

Fishermen are Fishermen are willing to give willing to give up traditional up traditional fishing fishing activitiesactivities

Availability of Availability of extension extension servicesservices

OutputOutput Provision of credit Provision of credit of of

Rs.400 ml to 8000 Rs.400 ml to 8000

micro enterprises micro enterprises

through PCIs and through PCIs and

accredited NGOsaccredited NGOs

Number of micro enterprises Number of micro enterprises financed financed Sector- wise and PCI wise loan Sector- wise and PCI wise loan

disbursement disbursement Average sub-loan size per PCI and Average sub-loan size per PCI and

male female participationmale female participation Percentage of borrowers without Percentage of borrowers without

previous borrowing experience previous borrowing experience

Banks are Banks are flexible to flexible to grant loans on grant loans on character character reference reference rather than rather than collateral’s collateral’s

Logical Framework Analysis