Title Date The Auto Future: Fast and Furious David E. Cole Chairman Emeritus Center for Automotive...
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Transcript of Title Date The Auto Future: Fast and Furious David E. Cole Chairman Emeritus Center for Automotive...
TitleDate
The Auto Future: Fast and Furious
David E. ColeChairman Emeritus
Center for Automotive Research (CAR)Chairman AutoHarvest
Good Morning LivingstonHowell, Michigan
February 11,2014
David is to be returned to Italy A bit of cultural news for a welcome change!
His Proud Sponsors were Fast Food Chains…
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4
Auto
“We Had a Problem”
Mostly Revenue –
with Depression Level of Sales
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PALE Meeting-March 19, 2009
5
However, Will It Come Back . . ?U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
Source: CSM Worldwide, J.D. Power
+4.4 M+6.8 M
+8.9 M+2.4 M
-9.3 M -5.2 M
-8.0 M
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PALE Meeting-March 19, 2009
6
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales History and ForecastCombined J.D. Power and CSM Worldwide Forecast
2007 - 2014
16.1
13.2
10.0
11.6
15.1
16.516.1
14.1
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: CSM Worldwide, JD Power, Inc.
Mil
lio
ns
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7
Pillars of Economy
Mining
Agriculture
Manufacturing
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8
Manufacturing–
An Amazing Level of Ignorance
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Manufacturing Choke Points?
Staff Tooling Suppliers Equipment Natural Events Materials
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10
Auto Industry of the Future
A World of
Vanishing Boundaries
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11
Beware: The Aging of the Boomers.
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12
Demographics
Consumer Behavior
Socio / Political
Health Care
Skilled Workers
World Issue
“Boomers go Boom”
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13
Auto Industry -
Thousands of New Jobs – But Only
for the Educated
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Tough Challenges Ahead:
14
K-12 Pipeline
Young Women
No Universal Message
Inadequate Resources
Poor History
Dated Picture of Manufacturing
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Give Scale to Great Educational Programs
Create a Message of Importance, Opportunity and Need
15
“Building America’s
Tomorrow”
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16
Success Requires Improvements in:
Cost
Revenue
Agility
Innovation
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17
Industry, Highly Unstable —
Not in Final Form
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18
The Old Business Model
is Broken
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19
Market Share is Nice
Profits are Essential
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20
BureaucracyPaper Linear
Slow Lean
IndividualSequential
Regional
Physical Prototypes
Job for LifeKings
Talk
Competition StructuredAcquisitions
Vertical Integration
Legalistic
Old Business Model
Control
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21
Anti-bureaucracyPaperless Collaboration
Fast Lean Agile
Teame-enabled
Global
Virtual Prototypes
People Flow Coaches
Listen
Coopetition
Parallel
FlexibleAlliances
Virtual Integration
Trust
New Business Model
Empowerment
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22
Time
Present Business Model
New BusinessModel
Real
Desired
Performance
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23
Leadership:
Responsibility - Authority
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24
Leadership:
Coach Team Vision Self Confidence Focus Systems Thinking More Than the Job Communication
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25
Key Questions for Leaders:
What Do I Have To Do That I’m Doing?
What Am I Doing That I Don’t Have To Do?
What Am I Not Doing That I Should Be Doing?
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26
Knowledge
The Competitive Edge
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27
It’s nice to be smart and rich,
but smart is more
important than rich.
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28
Do what you know.
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29
Customer Pull
Cars and Trucks
Productand
Process
Technology Push
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30
Time
KnowledgeApplication
Knowledge
Competitive Advantage
Innovation
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31
Innovation:
Innovative People and Companies Win
It Takes a Team
Leadership is Critical
Look Across Traditional Boundaries
Sometimes It is Better to Ask Forgiveness than Permission
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32
Coming Soon:
“Auto Harvest”
Check it out at autoharvest.org
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33
Big Data is Here
The Challenge: Use is
Intelligently
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34
STEM is Moving to
STEAM
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35
T I M E
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36
Fast-paced change demands
leverage of all resources
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37
Communication
Collaboration
Cooperation
Alliances
Teamwork
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38
Product Technology
At the edge of a revolution?
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39
Future Auto Power Plants Gasoline
Diesel
Hybrid
Fuel Cell
Electric
?
The Answer – ?
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40
Future Fuels
Petroleum
Bio
Hydrogen
NH3
The Answer – ?
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41
Future Gasoline Price –
$ 1.50 – $ 5.00 /gallon
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42
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 $-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$2,250
$1,125 $750
$563 $450 $375 $321
$4,500
$2,250
$1,500 $1,125
$900 $750 $643
$7,500
$3,750
$2,500
$1,875 $1,500
$1,250 $1,071
$1.50/gal$3.00/gal$5.00/gal
Annual Mileage 15,000
MPG
An
nu
al F
uel
Co
st
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43
Breakthrough Areas
Advanced Batteries
Cellulosic Bio-Fuels
Connected Vehicles
Advanced Material Systems
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44
The Invention
is Here!
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45
Future Direction
It’s All a Matter of Economics