TIP 2001-02 Evaluation

Presentation of results22 July 2002

Sarah LevyCalibre Consultants, UK

Carlos Barahona Statistical Services Centre,University of Reading, UK

Production and food security survey

• All districts in Malawi

• 5 villages per district selected at random from the TIP register

• A total of 135 villages

• A total of 2,952 households

• 1,541 TIP recipients and 1,411 non-recipients

How reliable are these results?

The sample is representative. Random selection of villages and households.

The sample is large enough to provide results at national level, regional level or in clusters of districts.

A careful process of quality control was set in place at every stage of the study: from design to report writing.

The team of Malawian professionals responsible for carrying out the work have proven capacity to do the job.

Are they smallholders?

• Land holding size (acres)

1 acre = 0.4046 ha

How much do they cultivate?

• Cultivated area (acres)

1 acre = 0.4046 ha

What crops do they grow?

Where do they get their income from?

How much did they make from crops?

MK average per household

Inputs constraint

1.5 acres = 0.6 ha – appropriate amount of fertiliser is around 60-90kg

But only 1/3 of smallholder farmers that did not receive free inputs in 2000-01 and 2001-02 seasons used ANY fertiliser on their crops

And ¾ of those that used fertiliser, used less than 10kg

Targeting the poor?

• SP targeted poor smallholder farmers

(not to medium-sized farmers or estates)

• TIP tried to narrow down the targeting to ‘the poorest of the poor’

– Unsuccessful in 2000-01– Unsuccessful in 2001-02

Poverty profiles of recipients and non-recipients

Why did targeting fail for TIP?

Reason

• Criteria are not strongly associated with poverty

• Village authorities target themselves and their relatives first – ‘inclusion errors’

• Even if they ‘got it right’, there would be a large number of ‘the poorest of the poor’ left out because the quota is too small – ½ or ⅓ does not relate to any poverty line – the poverty line is around 65%

Maize production in the household

Maize production at household level

8.4

7.68.07.7

7 7.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

TIP recipient Non-recipient All farmers

50

Kg

ba

gs

2000-01 2000-02

Reduction in the smallholder maize harvest: 10%

2001-02

Is this the full extent of the decrease in output?

• Early harvesting

– 64% of the 326 visited in field visits harvested early in 2002.

– 66% of the 2,913 farmers visited in the main survey ate nsima from green maize (chitibu)

• Storage problems associated with harvesting maize before it matures

Reasons for pre-harvesting maize