Tim's Cheltenham 2016 Guide

Tim O’Mahony

1

Cheltenham Festival 2016

“Two men looked out from prison bars, one saw mud, while the other saw stars!”

Day 1(Tuesday):

Supreme Novices:

Last year Ted Walsh was quoted as saying on Douvan, "If Willie Mullins says this horse is as good as

he's sent to Cheltenham, what sort of a gob***** would you be to disagree?"

Well I was one! The old phrase of fool me once (Champagne Fever in 2013), fool me twice (Vautour

in 2014) but to fool me three times with Douvan winning the Supreme in 2015…I felt like George W

Bush! Fast forward exactly 12 months later and Willie Mullins, Rich Ricci and Ruby Walsh are on for

Pegasus 4.0 with the hype machine Min. He is now priced accordingly at around 2/1 and looks all set

to give the dream team an unprecedented 4th win in a row! Two years ago, I was down in the Mullins

yard and the word was that the horse in Box A was the best they ever had, closely followed by the

horse in Box B and then the yolk beside them in Box C kept working with them and was keeping up

with them. Box A was Allez Colombieres, Douvan was in Box B and Min was in Box C. Roll on 2 years

later and the best horse sadly died but the horse in Box B won last year’s Supreme and is a 1/3 shot

for this year’s Arkle and the horse in Box C is now the raging hot favourite for this year’s race. Truly,

an embarrassment of Riccis.

Now to look at the other horses in the race. Try to avoid the top rated horse in the race as they can

come unstuck look at Cue Card, Dunguib and My Tent or Yours. I always try to look for an improver

that could have even been beaten over hurdles in there career look at Al Ferof, Menorah and

Champagne Fever. They all ran in Irish bumpers and the record of horses that have originally

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contested an Irish bumper is phenomenal. 17 of the last 20 places have been filled by bumper

horses. Altior interestingly can lay claim to this while also being the top rated horse in this race at

151. Buveur D’Air has looked very classy as a novice so far and Noel Fehily is sweet on his chances.

However, Nicky Henderson has not won this race since 1992 and has even managed to get horses

such as Sprinter Sacre and Binocular beaten in this! Previous Champion Bumper form is also a big

plus so don’t write off Supasundae to have an each way chance. Connections had Sizing John run a

big race last year and Supasundae has seriously good bumper form having beaten Yanworth and

finished a close 6th in last year’s bumper. Keep an eye out for wherever Yorkhill goes but I think he

rocks up in the Neptune so I’m not going to talk about him yet. Tombstone is a horse I have liked all

season and if there is to be an Irish surprise he is the one with Grade One form to boot and could be

suited to a Bryan Cooper front running display. Better ground, a faster pace and the addition of a

hood could prove decisive and give him an each way squeak.

Anyway enjoy the gift of the drift on Min and just smash into him to kick the week off in style!

Race Trends:

• 17 of the last 18 winners won last time out

• 15 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous 50 days

• The Irish have won 11 of the last 15 renewals

• Only 5 favourites won in the last 26 renewals

• 9 of the last 17 winners started in the front two of the betting

Win: Min

Each Way: Tombstone

Year Winner Trainer Jockey Age/Wt SP

2015 Douvan W P Mullins R Walsh 5 11-7 2/1f

2014 Vautour W P Mullins R Walsh 5 11-7 7/2f

2013 Champagne Fever W P Mullins R Walsh 6 11-7 5/1

2012 Cinders And Ashes D McCain Jnr J M Maguire 5 11-7 10/1

2011 Al Ferof P F Nicholls R Walsh 6 11-7 10/1

2010 Menorah P J Hobbs R Johnson 5 11 - 7 12/1

2009 Go Native N Meade P Carberry 6 11-7 12/1

2008 Captain Cee Bee E Harty R Thornton 7 11-7 17/2

2007 Ebaziyan W Mullins D Condon 6 11-7 40-1

2006 Noland P F Nicholls R Walsh 5 11-7 6-1

2005 Arcalis J Howard Johnson G Lee 5 11-7 20-1

2004 Brave Inca C A Murphy B M Cash 5 11-7 7-2f

2003 Back In Front E J O'Grady N Williamson 6 11-8 3-1f

2002 Like-A-Butterfly C Roche C F Swan 8 11-3 7-4f

2001 No Race

2000 Sausolito Bay N Meade P Carberry 6 11-8 14-1

1999 Hors La Loi III M C Pipe A P McCoy 4 11-0 9-2

1998 French Ballerina P J Flynn G Bradley 5 11-3 10-1

1997 Shadow Leader C R Egerton J Osborne 6 11-8 5-1

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Arkle:

Named after the greatest jumps horse of them all, the Arkle Trophy is the most prestigious race of

the year for novice chasers. It is run over two miles on the old course, and recent combatants have

included future Champion Chase and Gold Cup winners.

Douvan will lead them from pillar to post! Been there done that and he is already rated 163 over

fences. Back Douvan to win beat the distance as Ruby will struggle to pull him up. Move on.

Johnny Burke, Alan Potts and Henry De Bromhead have a nice chase prospect in Sizing John. He has

very nice hurdle form and solid chase form. The same connections won this race with the great

Sizing Europe and I can see Sizing John picking up the pieces if anything was to happen to Douvan.

He is 4/1 without the fav and I’d be all over that.

Race Trends:

26 of the last 28 winners finished in the top two last time out

6 of the last 13 winners were the highest-rated hurdler in the field

The last 24 winners have started at 11/1 or shorter, but only 6 favourites won

The Irish have only won 4 of the last 17 renewals

French bred horses have won 10 of the last 20 renewals

Win: Douvan

Each Way: Sizing John


2015 Un De Sceaux W P Mullins R Walsh 5 11-7 2/1f

2014 Western Warhorse D Pipe T Scudamore 6 11-7 33/1

2013 Simonsig N J Henderson B J Geraghty 7 11-7 8/15f

2012 Sprinter Sacre N J Henderson B J Geraghty 6 11-7 8/11f

2011 Captain Chris P J Hobbs R Johnson 7 11-7 6/1

2010 Sizing Europe H De Bromhead A E Lynch 8 11-7 6/1

2009 Forpadydeplasterer T Cooper B J Geraghty 7 11-7 8/1

2008 Tidal Bay J Howard Johnson D O'Regan 7 11-7 6/1

2007 My Way De Solzen A King R Thornton 7 11-7 7-2

2006 Voy Por Ustedes A King R Thornton 5 11-2 15-2

2005 Contraband M C Pipe T Murphy 7 11-7 7-1

2004 Well Chief M C Pipe A P McCoy 5 11-3 9-1

2003 Azertyuiop P F Nicholls R Walsh 6 11-8 5-4f

2002 Moscow Flyer Mrs J Harrington B Geraghty 8 11-8 11-2

2001 No Race

2000 Tiutchev N J Henderson M Fitzgerald 7 11-8 8-1

1999 Flagship Uberalles P F Nicholls J Tizzard 5 11-0 11-1

1998 Champleve M C Pipe A P McCoy 5 11-0 13-2

1997 Or Royal M C Pipe A P McCoy 6 11-8 11-2

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National Hunt Chase:

In 2014, I thought Shutthefrontdoor was going to win this race but he finished nowhere before going

onto win the Irish National and last year I thought Thunders & Roses had a chance before he flopped

and then also went on to win the Irish National in 2015! So if the horse doesn’t perform on the day

then keep him in mind for the next day. The one horse under the radar that I like is Ballychorus each

way. She jumps like a stag, gets a mares allowance and is a sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Follow

The Plan. She has been so close to winning two huge pots at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse until she

fell when leading at the last in both. Her recent win in Thurles looks to have sorted out her jumping

and her trainer Mags Mullins can ready a horse for the big day (look at Martello Tower winning last

year). Neil Mulholland is another very shrewd trainer and the horse that ticks all the boxes for this is

Southfield Royale. The money has come for this horse and the trainer is no stranger to a Cheltenham

winner. Southfield Royale also has Grade One form in the bag and has got the added bonus of Nina

Carberry doing the steering! Nina has actually never won this race so there could be a gamble on this

one on the day. Paddy Mullins is still not sure what he will ride but if he manages to get the leg up

on Roi Des Francs then I might be swayed that way on the day. He will place whoever he is on.

Race Trends:

Jonjo O’Neill has won this race 5 times

10 out of the last 13 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

Win: Southfield Royale

Each Way: Ballychorus

Champion Hurdle:

No Hurricane Fly, no Jezki, no Arctic Fire and now no Faugheen! Safe to say I will be very surprised to

see a horse rated 170 win this and the absence of the aforementioned machine certainly takes the

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gloss off the whole week. But New Zealand managed to win a World Cup without Dan Carter so it is

possible that Willie Mullins can emulate them and win with the B Team of Annie Power, Nichols

Canyon and Sempre Medici!

Firstly the opposition, My Tent or Yours is a phrase better off found in Stradbally and he has no

business winning a Champion Hurdle first time out. He will no doubt travel like the winner 3 out until

crumbling and is a massive In-Play lay! Gigginstown are synonymous with chasers and it is pleasantly

surprising to see Identity Thief turn out to be such an improving hurdler but a Champion Hurdler?! I

don’t think so. So then comes The New One who actually can boast the best form behind Faugheen

now and with the top 4 from last year’s race now out, he would have been called the winner! But

this will be his 3rd attempt at the race and he is just full of excuses each time.

Nichols Canyon has beaten the unbeatable Faugheen and is the only horse to do so. If you can

forgive his last run then Nichols Canyon should be favourite. Very tricky race so maybe the 7 pound

pull for Annie Power might swing things in her favour but don’t be surprised to see a shock with

something like Sempre Medici flying home late. Willie Mullins to have another 1-2-3?

Race Trends:

26 of the last 30 winners won last time out

23 of the last 24 winners won a race previously that season

20 of the last 23 winners started in the first five of the betting

19 of the last 25 winners had winning form at Cheltenham and 19 of the last 22 winners had

previously been placed at the festival

Only 4 winners older than eight since 1951

The Irish have won 11 of the last 15 renewals

Win: Annie Power

Each Way: Nichols Canyon


2015 Faugheen W P Mullins R Walsh 7 11-10 4/5f

2014 Jezki Mrs J Harrington B J Geraghty 6 11-10 9/1

2013 Hurricane Fly W P Mullins R Walsh 9 11-10 13/8f

2012 Rock On Ruby P F Nicholls N Fehily 7 11-10 11/1

2011 Hurricane Fly W P Mullins R Walsh 7 11-10 11/4f

2010 Binocular N J Henderson A P McCoy 6 11-10 9/1

2009 Punjabi N J Henderson B J Geraghty 6 11-10 22/1

2008 Katchit A King R Thornton 5 11-10 10/1

2007 Sublimity J G Carr P A Carberry 7 11-10 16-1

2006 Brave Inca C A Murphy A P McCoy 8 11-10 7-4f

2005 Hardy Eustace D T Hughes C O'Dwyer 8 11-10 7-2jf

2004 Hardy Eustace D T Hughes C O'Dwyer 7 11-10 33-1

2003 Rooster Booster P J Hobbs R Johnson 9 12-0 9-2

2002 Hors La Loi III J R Fanshawe D Gallagher 7 12-0 10-1

2001 No Race

2000 Istabraq A P O'Brien C F Swan 8 12-0 8-15f



1997 Make A Stand M C Pipe A P McCoy 6 12-0 7-1

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Mares Hurdle:

Vroum Vroum Mag is the form mare this season and looks a star. Her ratings suggest she will win

and she is a penalty kick (Baring any last flight falls). Willie Mullins can win this race for the 7th time

in a row!

The Govaness trained by Dr Newland looks an improver and might be one to fill the places at a big

price as she would have beaten last year’s 2nd in this Polly Peachum last time out if given a better

ride.

“And as they come into the home straight, the four-timer is on." Vroum Vroum Mag will hopefully do

what Annie Power couldn’t do and win the last leg of an almighty 4 timer 2nd time round!

Win: Vroum Vroum Mag

Each Way: The Govaness

WILLIE INSURANCE: Deja Vous but here are a few accums that might pay for the week:

Banker Treble- Vroum Vroum Mag, Limini, Thistlecrack, = 10/1

Ruby Tuesday- Min (Supreme), Vroum Vroum Mag (Mares), Douvan (Arkle) and Annie

Power(Champion Hurdle) 25/1

Dream Acca- Annie Power(Champion Hurdle), Un De Sceaux ( Champion Chase)

Thistlecrack(World Hurdle), Vautour (Gold Cup) = 75/1

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Day 2(Wednesday):

Neptune Novices Hurdle:

Istabraq, Faugheen and Hardy Eustace have all won this en route to victory in the Champion Hurdle.

Will Yanworth do the same? He is rated 158 already and looked imperious at Cheltenham the last

day. It is a race predominantly won by a classy horse and unlike the Supreme is not one to look for a

big improver. Favourites have been successful in 15 of the 42 running’s (36%) so good news for

Yanworth backers. He could be the one to destroy this opposition.

The Irish have an excellent record in this race with 18 wins, including last year’s winner Windsor

Park. I’ll give a big each way shout to the same connections with Dermot Weld’s Vigil at 33/1. Nice

Cheltenham bumper form (5th twice) and a decent prep. However, Willie Mullins notoriously has ‘a

good thing’ aimed at this race to win or place. If Yorkhill were to go for this then I would be backing

him each way but in the unlikeliness of that happening you can look to Graded novice hurdle

winners Bellshill, A Toi Phil and Long Dog to carry the flag.

If he were to run then I would go for the unbeaten Yorkhill. He is rated 151 which is the same as

Altior but his form lines are outstanding. He beat Agrapart in the Tolworth who won the very

competitive Betfair Hurdle and thumped Nicky Henderson’s 007 who went onto win after as well.

The only issue I have with him is that he might go for the Supreme instead so my advice is wait for

the declarations for this one but don’t forget to keep him onside wherever he goes.

Long Dog is the forgotten horse. Handicapper rates him and he is rated 148 in Ireland but 158 in

Britain same as Yanworth. Long Dog is a massive price for a horse that has already won 2 Grade One

Novice hurdles, stuffed a Galway Hurdle winner in Thomas Edison and a recent Grade One winner in

Bleu Et Rouge and is currently on a winning run of 6 races in a row. If Yorkhill doesn’t go for this

then I’ll be all over Long Dog and I can see Paul Townend scaring the bejaysus out of Yanworth from

the front!

Win: Yorkhill

Each Way: Long Dog

RSA Chase:

This is a test for the Gold Cup with previous winners going on to win the Blue Riband in Denman, Lord Windermere and Bob’s Worth. Don Poli is aiming to emulate them this year and he holds every chance. No More Heroes is the big Irish hope but Gigginstown have a poor win record in this race considering

their focus on it with only 2 winners in the last 20 years (had last year’s winner in Don Poli). No More

Heroes looks a bit soft to me and reminds me of previous short priced favs for the race in Grands Cru

and Time for Rupert who both ended up flopping when it counted. At a big price take a look at Noel

Meade’s Monksland. I reckon he could be a very nice each way play with form in all the big Irish

Grade One novice chase’s this season. A few years ago Noel trained Very Wood to win the Albert

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Bartlett after placing in the novice hurdle Grade One’s all season and I think if there is to be a big

priced winner then it could be this horse.

The winner and one of the bets of the meeting is the only horse to have beaten Annie Power fair and

square and that’s Jonjo O’Neill’s More Of That. His form took a nice boost when Sametegal recently

winning a handicap off a big weight. More Of That is a potential superstar and is Tony McCoy’s nap

of the meeting. I don’t know about you but that is good enough for me.

Race Trends:

26 of the last 27 winners won or finished second last time out

11 of the last 20 winners were rated below 134 over hurdles, however the last 9 were not

Only 2 winners (Florida Pearl & Don Poli both trained by WPM) with less than 3 chase starts since 1992

All 21 Feltham winners have been beaten (6 horses beaten in that race have won)

50 out of last 51 winners had run in the same calendar year- Don Poli being the exception last year!

Seven year olds have won 13 of the last 16

No winner over eight since 1992

12 of the last 15 winners raced prominently

Only 7 Irish victories since 1985 (but 6 of last 7 including Don Poli)

4 of the 7 Irish winners were trained by Willie Mullins

Win: More Of That

Each Way: Monksland


2015 Don Poli W P Mullins B Cooper 6 11-4 13/8f

2014 O'Faolains Boy Miss R Curtis B J Geraghty 7 11-4 12/1

2013 Lord Windermere J H Culloty D N Russell 7 11-4 8/1

2012 Bobs Worth N J Henderson B J Geraghty 7 11-4 9/2

2011 Bostons Angel Mrs J Harrington R M Power 7 11-4 16/1

2010 Weapon's Amnesty C Byrnes D N Russell 7 11-4 10/1

2009 Cooldine W P Mullins R Walsh 7 11-4 9/4f

2008 Alberta's Run J O'Neill A P McCoy 7 11-4 4/1f

2007 Denman P F Nicholls R Walsh 7 11-4 6-5f

2006 Star De Mohaison P F Nicholls B Geraghty 5 10-8 14-1

2005 Trabolgan N J Henderson M Fitzgerald 7 11-4 5-1

2004 Rule Supreme W P Mullins D J Casey 8 11-4 25-1

2003 One Knight P J Hobbs R Johnson 7 11-4 15-2

2002 Hussard Collonges P Beaumont R Garritty 7 11-4 33-1

2001 No Race

2000 Lord Noelie Miss H C Knight J Culloty 7 11-4 9-2

1999 Looks Like Trouble N T Chance P Carberry 7 11-4 16-1

1998 Florida Pearl W P Mullins R Dunwoody 6 11-4 11-8f

1997 Hanakham R J Hodges R Dunwoody 8 11-4 13-2

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Queen Mother Champion Chase:

Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre. The last 3 winners of the race are all coming back

for a second bite at the cherry but there is an odds on favourite in the shape of another Willie

Mullins hotpot in the hell raiser Un De Sceaux.

The form of previous year’s Arkle runners is incredible. They all tend to finish in the first 3 the

following season so Un De Sceaux and God’s Own are the second season horses to keep on your

side. The form horse is Un De Sceaux, the trends horse is Un De Sceaux and the best horse is Un De

Sceaux. Hard to imagine any other winner barring accidents and with the 3 previous Queen Mother

Champion Chase winners likely to slit each other’s throats it could pay to look towards last year’s

Arkle form and God’s Own to plug on for a place. There won’t be a dry eye in the house if Sprinter

Sacre can come back from the dead to win again and he is the only horse who could fairly beat Un

De Sceaux if both ran to form.

Race Trends:

29 of the last 32 winners started in single figures in the betting

The last 14 Arkle winners to run in the following year's Champion Chase all finished in the

first three (7 won)

Win: Un De Sceaux

Each Way: God’s Own

PREVIOUS WINNERS Year Winner Trainer Jockey Age/Wt SP

2015 Dodging Bullets P Nicholls S Twiston-Davies 7 11-10 9/2

2014 Sire De Grugy G Moore J Moore 8 11-10 11/4f

2013 Sprinter Sacre N J Henderson B J Geraghty 7 11-10 1/4f

2012 Finian's Rainbow N J Henderson B J Geraghty 9 11-10 4/1

2011 Sizing Europe H De Bromhead A E Lynch 9 11-10 10/1

2010 Big Zeb Colm A Murphy B J Geraghty 9 11-10 10/1

2008 Master Minded P Nicholls R Walsh 6 11-10 4/11f

2008 Master Minded P Nicholls R Walsh 5 11-10 3/1

2007 Voy Por Ustedes A King R Thornton 6 11-10 5-1

2006 Newmill J J Murphy A J McNamara 8 11-10 16-1

2005 Moscow Flyer Mrs J Harrington B Geraghty 11 11-10 6-4f

2004 Azertyuiop P F Nicholls R Walsh 7 11-10 15-8

2003 Moscow Flyer Mrs J Harrington B Geraghty 9 12-0 7-4f

2002 Flagship Uberalles P J Hobbs R Johnson 8 12-0 7-4f

2001 No Race

2000 Edredon Bleu Miss H C Knight A P McCoy 8 12-0 7-2

1999 Call Equiname P F Nicholls M Fitzgerald 9 12-0 7-2

1998 One Man G Richards B Harding 10 12-0 7-2

1997 Martha's Son Capt T Forster R Farrant 10 12-0 9-1

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Champion Bumper:

The best bumper horse on form in Ireland is New To This Town and the best in England is Ballyandy

but form rarely works out in this race with so many horses being unexposed. However, Jessica

Harrington doesn’t just enter any old horse for this race. Her last 2 runners have been Cork All Star

Champion Bumper winner in 2007 and Jezki who won the Champion Hurdle in 2014. Not bad

company for New To This Town. He has recently been bought for a king’s ransom by Alan Potts

(Sizing Europe fame) and the outstanding Johnny Burke will now be riding him who has a serious

chance of breaking his festival duck with this horse.

You can’t talk about the bumper without mentioning the king and Patrick Mullins is the champion

amateur jockey so whoever he ends up riding you have to sit up and take note. Interestingly

rumours abound that Avenir D’Une Vie could be the best of the Mullins brigade which is great news

for the Harrington’s having conquering him with New To This Town already. A few others to note

would be the breath-taking performances of Augusta Kate but she is a mare and also Paddy can’t get

down to do the weight so that fella Walsh picks up the ride! Paddy is likely to ride Battleford who

looks a future stayer so expect to see a Champagne Fever like bully boy performance from the front.

Castello Sforza is another Mullins potential star and will be ridden by Barry Geraghty. Check out the

form of his bumper win. Also, interestingly last year’s Cheltenham bumper winner Moon Racer won

the same Fairyhouse Bumper the year before. The form of Castello Sforza’s bumper win has been

excellent (Death Duty and Sunni May romping home after). So he is one that money could come for.

Race Trends:

20 of the 22 winners won last time out

16 of the last 17 winners were aged five or six

The Irish have won 17 of the 22 renewals

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Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 18 renewals. (4 were the only stable representative

(other 4 were 2nd/3rd string in the market) and 6 had one run and one win to their name

15 of the 22 winners started in the first six in the betting

Favourites have won 4 of the 22 renewals

Win: New To This Town

Each Way: Castello Sforza

Day 3(Thursday):

JLT Novice Chase:

This is a race for misfit toys and has been dominated by Irish winners since it became a graded race.

I think it will suit a genuine 2 mile 4 horse such as Outlander. His novice hurdle win last year in

Leopardstown was outstanding. He beat three festival winners (Windsor Park, Kilutagh Vic and

Martello Tower) and also had multiple Grade One winner No More Heroes way back in the field. He

went ok in the Neptune last year despite a poor ride. However, this year he has been very smooth

over fences winning 3/3 including a Grade One in Leopardstown. He beat Monksland by more than

No More Heroes did over the same distance and there is no excuses to be made for this horse. Looks

rock solid and is going under the radar for Team Mullins. One of the bets of the meeting.

The fact Philip Hobbs is adamant on sending Garde La Victoire for this race instead of taking on

Douvan in the Arkle doesn’t take Einstein to work out. He is 3/3 over fences so far as well as giving

away lumps of weight and a 7 length thumping to the current favourite in Bristol De Mai. How he is

favourite ahead of him is baffling. So I’ll be going for Richard Johnson and Garde La Victoire as a

strong each way play.

Win: Outlander

Each Way: Garde La Victoire

Ryanair:

This race will go to England so get your pen and just cross off all Irish horses. Irish horses either win

over 2 miles or 3 miles but this race has always been dominated by English trainers. David Pipe’s

Dynaste is overpriced and looks like a solid each way bet. He is former winner, recent wind op will

help and he has beaten likely fav Al Ferof on numerous occasions. Dynaste just keeps running into

top class opposition such as Cue Card and Silviancio Conti but won’t face anything like them in this.

He is just under Grade One class but this is a weak race and is a basically a Grade Two. The improving

horse over chases this year is certainly Village Vic and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bang there

at the finish. The other unexposed horse to keep on side is Josses Hill for Nicky Henderson. He

promised so much as a novice hurdler but has failed to make it count over fences so far. He was 2nd

in the Bumper behind Faugheen, 2nd in a Supreme behind Vautour and 3rd in an Arkle behind Un De

Sceaux. He is sick of the Mullins stars and with his jumping now sorted I can see him running a big

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one. He was impressive last time out beating God’s Own who is a decent yardstick and Nicky

Henderson record in this is very good record. With only a half dozen runs over fences he could easily

prove to be a fly in the ointment and could be the improver.

Race Trends:

7 of the 8 winners (and 7 runners-up) had previously won at Cheltenham

4 of the 9 winners ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup

Since it became a Grade One 5 of the 6 winners ran in a King George

9 of the 10 winners started 6/1 or shorter

Win: Josses Hill

Each way: Dynaste


2015 Uxizandre A King AP McCoy 7 11-10 16/1

2014 Dynaste D Pipe T Scudamore 8 11-10 3/1F

2013 Cue Card C L Tizzard J Tizzard 7 11-10 7/2

2012 Riverside Theatre N J Henderson B J Geraghty 8 11-10 7/2f

2011 Albertas Run Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy 10 11-10 6/1

2010 Albertas Run Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy 9 11-10 14/1

2009 Imperial Commander N A Twiston-Davies P J Brennan 8 11-10 6/1

2008 Our Vic D Pipe T Murphy 10 11-10 4/1

2007 Taranis P Nicholls R Walsh 6 11-0 9/2

2006 Fondmort N J Henderson M Fitzgerald 10 11-0 100/30j

2005 Thisthatandtother P F Nicholls R Walsh 9 11-3 9-2

World Hurdle:

Thistlecrack is top class and should be shorter for this. The deflection of Annie Power and Vroum

Vroum Mag make his task even easier and to me looks like a penalty kick. Have a look at some

horses who might plug on and stay at the finish such as the Irish stayers Alpha Des Obeaux(the only

horse to get within 3 lengths of Douvan), Martello Tower who looks to be trained with one race in

mind all season and as last year’s Albert Bartlett winner should out run his big odds.

Then there is Nicky Henderson’s Whisper who has been shocking all season but can perform on the

big day (look at Aintree last year). Kilcooley also recorded a huge Timeform Rating of 163 and looks

set to be ridden by the champion jockey in waiting Richard Johnson. He will make the places if he

runs to the same level.

Anyway, Thistlecrack looks every inch Big Bucks light and wins this like a good thing.

Race Trends:

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18 of the last 20 winners ran at the previous years' festival

Only 9 horses outside the first four in the betting have been placed since 2002

1 Irish winner in 20 years

Only one horse over nine years old has won the stayers' crown since its inception in 1972

Win: Thistlecrack

Each Way: Kilcooley


2015 Cole Harden W Greatrex G Sheehan 7 11-10 14/1

2014 More Of That J O’Neil B Geraghty 6 11-10 15/2

2013 Solwhit C Byrnes P Carberry 9 11-10 17/2

2012 Big Buck's P F Nicholls R Walsh 9 11-10 5/6f



2009 Big Buck's P F Nicholls R Walsh 6 11-10 6/1

2008 Inglis Drever J H Johnson D O'Regan 9 11-10 11/8f

2007 Inglis Drever J H Johnson P Brennan 8 11-10 5-1

2006 My Way De Solzen A King R Thornton 6 11-10 8-1

2005 Inglis Drever J Howard Johnson G Lee 6 11-10 5-1

2004 Iris's Gift J O'Neill B Geraghty 7 11-10 9-2

2003 Baracouda F Doumen T Doumen 8 11-10 9-4jf

2002 Baracouda F Doumen T Doumen 7 11-10 13-8f

2001 No Race

2000 Bacchanal N J Henderson M Fitzgerald 6 11-10 11-2

1999 Anzum D Nicholson R Johnson 8 11-10 40-1

1998 Princeful Mrs J Pitman R Farrant 7 11-10 16-1

1997 Karshi Miss H C Knight J Osborne 7 11-10 20-1

Tim O’Mahony

14

Day 4(Friday):

Triumph:

Look to key trials at Kempton and Leopardstown (The Willie Mullins 3 horses and Ivanovich

Gorbatov) for this as they have provided the winner between them 9 times in the last 16 years. I

reckon there are no good Irish 4 year olds and that the English big stables have this mopped up

between King, Nicholls and Henderson. To me the most impressive performance of a 4 year old this

year has come from Paul Nicholl’s Zubayr in the key trial, the Adonis. I was blown away by it and Paul

Nicholls has gone down this route before with Zarkandar and the fact he was bought for almost

€400k tells me this guy looks every inch a potential star. Sceau Royal looks like he is the best from

Alan King’s yard and Ncky Henderson’s Protek Des Flos was very impressive when coming off the

pace on debut in January beating Clan Des Obeaux. He could be the surprise package.

9 of the last 11 winners were found in the first four in the betting

Only two winners have justified favouritism in the last 14 years

4 of the last 8 winners had won just once over hurdles before

Win: Zubayr

Each Way: Sceau Royal

Albert Bartlett:

This is a tricky race to get right with big priced winners popping up in the past for example Bertie’s

Dream(33/1), Very Wood(33/1) and last year Martello Tower at (20/1)! But there have also been

class horses such as Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross who have won so Barters Hill could fall into

that category as he is still unbeaten and looks as tough as old boots.

For me the race needs an out and out stayer to win and Barter’s Hill has been unmerciful in his

faultless career thus far. It will take a very good stayer to beat him as everything he has faced has

finished their race legless. Look at what he did to Up For Review.

Gigginstown have a decent record in this (Won 2 out of last 7 renewals) so Gangster could stay on

late for a place but interestingly Willie Mullins is actually 0 out of 18 with his runners in this race

horses of the calibre of Black Hercules, Arvika Legionnaire, Briar Hill, Quel Esprit and Boston Bob

have all lost. However, Willie Mullins novices look too strong this year and I reckon one of his will

place at least and that is Thomas Hobson at a big price. He reminded me of Martello Tower with his

gutsy finish the last day beating Open Eagle and he is the only one who could trouble Barter’s Hill.

But Barter’s Hill…what a champion and what a sight to behold. Everytime he looks beaten he gets up

and goes again. He has beaten Altior, Buveur D’Air and Bellshill in bumpers when he looked beaten

each time. He took on Up For Review far too early last time out yet he still managed to plug on for

victory. Paul Nicholls compares him to Denman and he is by far the best priced novice hurdler. Pile

on him and enjoy a small yard having a big victory.

Win: Barters Hill

Alternative: Thomas Hobson

Tim O’Mahony

15

Gold Cup:

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the pinnacle of jump racing. It has been won by so many iconic horses

such as Arkle, Dawn Run, Desert Orchid, Denman and Kauto Star. It is has been 30 years since Sir

Peter O'Sullevan famously roared “And the mare is beginning to get up!”

Trends play a big part in this race so follow the top horses in the betting with 14 of the last 16

winners having contested either the King George or Lexus Chase. Is this the year Willie Mullins finally

takes home the Holy Grail after so many 2nd place finishes? Another one last year in Djakadam to

add to Florida Pearl, On His Own and Sir Des Champs. Crazy to think that the world’s best jumps

trainer hasn’t added this to his mantelpiece yet but in Vautour, Djakadam, Don Poli, Valseur Lido and

On His Own he has a few shots to fire! I am not going to look past Rich Ricci and Gigginstown for this

so I’ll throw in Don Cossack and Road to Riches but nothing else should get close. But what about a

rejuvenated Cue Card you say? He is in the form of his life, won the key trial and is on the course to

win a Million pound bonus! But he is now a 10 year old and if this age was a step too far for Kauto

Star and Denman then I can’t be having Cue Card to buck the trend. Smad Place ran in the race last

year and finished 8th so I can’t have him to improve on that running either and then to be frank the

rest of the horses shouldn’t be good enough. So back to the Irish brigade.

On His Own is running in this for a crack at the National so I am going to sidestep this 12 year old and

wish his rider a safe journey round. Valseur Lido fell last time out so I’m leaving him which sadly

means I will leave Djakadam too as it has proved extremely difficult for horses to win any race in

Cheltenham especially after a fall (that was also his 2nd fall at Cheltenham) never mind trying to win

the Gold Cup! The record of horses that were beaten in the race going back to try win it the

following year is shocking( Only Kauto Star managed it after losing his crown to Denman) and

therefore I’m leaving Noel Meade’s Road to Riches out so that leave me with three horses…Don

Cossack, Vautour and Don Poli. This is where the winner will come from I’ve no doubt.

Don Cossack is the highest rated horse with an RPR of 185 but his form at Cheltenham is very poor

considering he has that lofty rating and he doesn’t seem to enjoy big fields so I am going to leave

him. If he wins then that’s great for connections especially Davy Russell and Gordon Elliot but I won’t

be in that Don’s corner.

However, Don Poli is the enigma and one horse I can’t ignore. He is 2/2 at Cheltenham, is the RSA

winner and his lazy attitude makes him so appealing to conquer the hill. There is something special

about him and I’ve no doubt he could be off the bridle after the first fence yet bang there when it

comes to the last. One horse to back in running for sure.

Then comes the winner… Vautour! He has an RPR of 184 and has been spectacular in victory when

destroying the field in both the Supreme Novices and JLT Chase at Cheltenham. The image of Ruby

Walsh jumping 2 out in the King George and looking in cruise control still makes the hairs on the

back of my neck stand up. The difference between his performances in Winter to those in Spring is

staggering and I expect to see a stone in improvement. The comparisons to Kauto Star rings true for

me and all you need to do is rewatch last year’s JLT again before you decide on who your money is

on. Faith is required with Vautour but “In Willie We Trust”! King Kauto is gone, all hail the new King

Vautour!

Tim O’Mahony

16

Race Trends:

The last 13 winners were in the front three in the betting

11 of the last 15 winners of the Gold Cup had previously finished first or 2nd at the festival

12 of the last 23 winners were second season chasers

13 of the last 15 winners, either won or finished second last time out.

11 horses priced 33/1 and bigger have been placed since 1997

76 of 77 horses beaten in the race before since 1994 have been beaten again. The only

exceptions are Kauto Star and See More Business.

17 of the last 20 winners were aged between seven and nine

No horse older than ten has won since 1969

Since 2003, all 22 horses to have run in a Grade 1 Chase at the Cheltenham Festival having

fallen last time out were beaten.

Win: Vautour

Each Way: Don Poli


2015 Coneygree M Bradstock N De Boinville 8 11-4 7/1

2014 Lord Windermere J Culloty D Russell 8 11-10 20/1

2013 Bob’s Worth N J Henderson B Geraghty 8 11-10 11/4

2012 Synchronised Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy 9 11-10 8/1

2011 Long Run N J Henderson Mr S Waley-Cohen 6 11-10 7/2f

2010 Imperial Commander N A Twiston-Davies P J Brennan 9 11-10 7/1

2009 Kauto Star P Nicholls R Walsh 9 11-10 7/4f

2008 Denman P Nicholls S Thomas 8 11-10 9/4

2007 Kauto Star P Nicholls R Walsh 7 11-10 5/4f

2006 War Of Attrition M F Morris C O'Dwyer 7 11-10 15-2

2005 Kicking King T J Taaffe B Geraghty 7 11-10 4-1f

2004 Best Mate Miss H C Knight J Culloty 9 11-10 8-11f

2003 Best Mate Miss H C Knight J Culloty 8 12-0 13-8f

2002 Best Mate Miss H C Knight J Culloty 7 12-0 7-1

2001 No Race

2000 Looks Like Trouble N T Chance R Johnson 8 12-0 9-2

1999 See More Business P F Nicholls M Fitzgerald 9 12-0 16-1

1998 Cool Dawn R H Alner A Thornton 10 12-0 25-1

1997 Mr Mulligan N T Chance A P McCoy 9 12-0 20-1

Tim O’Mahony

17

Cheat Sheet

Cheltenham Race Selection

Supreme Min Arkle Douvan

Champion Hurdle Annie Power

Mares Hurdle Vroum Vroum Mag National Hunt Chase Southfield Royale

Neptune Yorkhill RSA More Of That

Champion Chase Un De Sceaux

Champion Bumper New To This Town JLT Outlander

Ryanair Josses Hill World Hurdle Thistlecrack

Triumph Zubayr Albert Bartlett Barters Hill

Gold Cup Vautour

Whispers

Bouvreuil (Tuesday, Close Brothers Handicap Chase) - nice handicap chase mark off 139 and

his chase win over Vyta Du Roc took a big boost recently.

Doctor Harper (Tuesday, Ultima Handicap Chase) Pipe’s handicap good thing. Step up in trip

to prove to be clinical. Could run in Kim Muir.

Kruzhlinin (Tuesday, Ultima Handicap Chase) – Looks like a tank and is Phillip Hobbs best

chance of a winner and he has been quoted on that. Will want to win this for new owners.

Josies Orders (Wednesday, Cross Country) Looks better than the rest in this and could be

the next Garde Champetre for connections.

Diamond King (Wednesday, Coral Cup) very likeable win at Punchestown and looks to be a

serious improver after moving from McCain’s to Elliot’s yard.

Diego Du Charmil (Wednesday, Fred Winter)-This horse is beating Zubayr in the gallops and

could be very well-handicapped off a mark of 136. Paul Nicholls’s best chance of a winner.

Kasakh Noir (Wednesday, Fred Winter)-Really liked his debut win and he has now

completed the necessary 3 hurdle races to get a handicap mark. Rated only 137 and could be

very interesting in this for Dan Skelton off a big price.

Limini (Thursday, Mares Novice) this horse is an aeroplane. Will win in Royal Ascot after.

Arpege D’Alene (Thursday, Pertemps) - Very classy horse who just didn’t set the world

alight over fences. Could be off a nice hurdle mark at 146 and I’ll be watching the market for

Paul Nicholl’s horse with great interest.

Tim O’Mahony

18

Taglietelle (Thursday, Pertemps) very tricky race but this horse is very honest and came

alive last year in the spring. Distance is ideal and with Jack Kennedy’s allowance could defy

the heavy weight.

Cause Of Causes (Thursday, Kim Muir)- He looks to be a JP plot for this race and is actually 5

pounds lower then when winning in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last year. Same

jockey on-board in Jamie Codd, same result expected.

Leave at Dawn (Thursday, Pertemps) - Dream punters team of Charles Byrnes and JP

McManus team up. Cheltenham form and fell into 5th the last day in order to qualify for this.

Will be punted off the boards if he gets in. Oi Oi!

Blue Hell (Friday, County Hurdle) the form of his seasonal debut win keeps getting franked

and he could be Barry Connell’s big winner of the week.

Henry Higgins (Friday, County Hurdle) it is hard to get away from his performance in the

Boylesports Hurdle. He could not have been more impressive and hasn’t been destroyed by

the handicapper at all. His price grossly undervalues his claims.

It Came To Pass (Friday, Foxhunters) Irish horses dominate this race so forget the English.

On The Fringe was very poor the last day and there is a chance last year’s treble has left its

mark. Also, with the likes of Prince De Beauchene and Salsify out of the race then we have to

look at the Raymond Smith race in Leopardstown for our winner and Jim Culloty’s horse

looks progressive and will be carrying my money.

Squouateur (Friday, Martin Pipe)- Jack Kennedy is set to ride this horse off 141 and Gordon

Elliot has already been quoted as saying he really wants to win this race for his former boss.

Rock The World (Friday, Grand Annual) Harrington’s best chance of a winner. Course and

distance form and is reportedly working out of his skin. The best bet until last.

Tim's Cheltenham 2016 Guide

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