Time series Forecasting using svm
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Transcript of Time series Forecasting using svm
Financial time series forecasting using support
vector machinesAuthor: Kyoung-jae Kim
2003 Elsevier B.V.
Outline
• Introduction to SVM
• Introduction to datasets
• Experimental settings
• Analysis of experimental results
Linear separability
• Linear separability– In general, two groups are linearly separable in n-
dimensional space if they can be separated by an (n − 1)-dimensional hyperplane.
A 2-D case
• In 2-D:– Training data:
xi ci<1, 1> 1<2, 2> 1<2, 1> -1<3, 2> -1
-2x+2y+1=-1
-2x+2y+1=1-2x+2y+1=0
w=<-2, 2>b=-1margin=sqrt(2)/2
Soft Margin
• Choose a hyperplane that splits the examples as cleanly as possible
• Still maximizing the distance to the nearest cleanly split examples
• Introduce an error cost Cd*C
Kernel Trick
• Build maximal margin hyperplanes in high-dimenisonal feature space depends on inner product: more cost
• Use a kernel function that lives in low dimensions, but behaves like an inner product in high dimensions
Kernels
• Polynomial– K(p, q) = (p•q + c)d
• Radial basis function– K(p, q) = exp(-γ||p-q||2)
• Gaussian radial basis– K(p, q) = exp(-||p-q||2/2δ2)
Datasets
• Input variables– 12 technical indicators
• Target attribute– Korea composite stock price index (KOSPI)
• 2928 trading days– 80% for training, 20% for holdout
Settings (1/3)
• SVM– kernels• polynomial kernel
• Gaussian radial basis function– δ2
– error cost C
Settings (2/3)• BP-Network– layers
• 3– number of hidden nodes
• 6, 12, 24– learning epochs per training example
• 50, 100, 200– learning rate
• 0.1– momentum
• 0.1– input nodes
• 12
Settings (3/3)
• Case-Based Reasoning– k-NN• k = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
– distance evaluation• Euclidean distance
Experimental results
• The results of SVMs with various C where δ2 is fixed at 25
• Too small C• underfitting*
• Too large C• overfitting*
* F.E.H. Tay, L. Cao, Application of support vector machines in -nancial time series forecasting, Omega 29 (2001) 309–317
Experimental results
• The results of SVMs with various δ2 where C is fixed at 78
• Small value of δ2
• overfitting*
• Large value of δ2
• underfitting*
* F.E.H. Tay, L. Cao, Application of support vector machines in -nancial time series forecasting, Omega 29 (2001) 309–317