Timberland Investment Group Market Report · 2019. 2. 25. · report, real GDP reflects 3Q2018;...

Timberland Investment Group Market Report4rd Quarter 2018

2BTG Pactual • Timberland Investment Group

Table of Contents

Timberland Investment Dashboard..................................................................................................................................................................3

Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................................................................................5

United States...................................................................................................................................................................................................................8

Latin America...............................................................................................................................................................................................................15

Europe...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................21

South Africa...................................................................................................................................................................................................................23

New Zealand.................................................................................................................................................................................................................26

Australia...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................28

Global Pulp and Paper Markets.........................................................................................................................................................................30

Baltic Dry Index...........................................................................................................................................................................................................32

Disclaimer.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................34


Timberland Investment Dashboard


Indexed Exchange Rates of Selected Countries vs. the US Dollar (2009=100)

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank; Bloomberg

US Southwide Quarterly Pine Chip-n-Saw and Sawtimber Prices

Source: TimberMart-South

Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices in Paraná State, Brazil

Source: STCP

Annual US Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, and 30-year Mortgage Rates

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank; US Dept. of Commerce Census Bureau

Quarterly Charcoal and Eucalyptus Stumpage Prices in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Sources: Associação Minera de Silvicultura, Silviconsult

Baltic Dry Index

Source: Bloomberg


ExecutiveSummary


TIG’s View from the GroundIn the US South, timber prices, particularly pulpwood, increased as wet weather in certain areas made procuring wood challenging. In the solid wood markets of Southwest Arkansas and East Texas, sawlog pricing increased given wet weather and a dearth of logging capacity.

In the US Pacific Northwest, log prices declined given softer domestic consumption and slower exports.

In Brazil, timber demand continues to improve in Minas Gerais given better pig iron demand and strong pulp demand. Elsewhere in Brazil, domestic timber demand continues to increase given better economic fundamentals while pulpwood remains oversupplied in certain regions.

In Uruguay, pine sawlog demand was steady, partially due to stable ocean freight rates and despite global economic uncertainty. Demand for eucalyptus pulpwood logs is solid given strong demand from local pulp producers.

Industrial & Capacity UpdateIn the US, Georgia-Pacific began production at its new Talladega, AL lumber mill (230 million board feet “mmbf”) and announced that it closed its Warm Springs, GA plywood production facility (195 million square feet “mmsf”). Weyerhaeuser completed the build-out of its Dierks, AR lumber mill (380mmbf ) while Tolko entered into a 50/50 joint venture with Southeastern Timber Products at its Ackerman, MS lumber mill. Meanwhile, ND Paper, the US-based subsidiary of China-based Nine Dragons Paper, announced plans to invest US$ 300 million at its Rumford, ME and Biron, WI mills. ND Paper also completed the acquisition of the idled Old Town kraft pulp mill in Old Town, ME. WestRock completed its acquisition of KapStone while Greif announced its intent to acquire Caraustar Industries.

In Brazil, WestRock announced a US$ 345 million investment at its Três Barras packaging mill aiming to increase the mill’s current capacity of 470,000 metric tonnes (“MT”) to 680,000 MT. In November, the European antitrust authority approved the combination of Suzano and Fibria, clearing the way for both companies to close the transaction. As part of the approval, Fibria ended its commercial bleached eucalyptus pulp kraft sales agreement with Klabin.

United StatesIn Q3, the US economy expanded with GDP increasing 3.4% quarter-over-quarter versus an increase of 4.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2. Meanwhile, unemployment increased to 3.9% in December versus 3.7% in November, the Institute for Supply Management (“ISM”) Purchasing Managers Index was at 54.1% in December versus 59.3% in November, and November housing starts increased 3.2% over the prior month (-3.6% versus November 2017). The overall economic outlook is cautiously optimistic.

Southern pine sawtimber prices increased 0.6% for the quarter and 1.6% year-over-year.

Southern chip-n-saw prices declined 1.0% sequentially in Q4 and 1.4% year-over-year.

Southern mixed hardwood sawtimber prices increased 2.6% for the quarter and 1.5% year-over-year.

Southern softwood pulpwood prices increased 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, but declined 6.5% year-over-year while hardwood pulpwood prices increased 6.3% quarter-over-quarter and 17.4% year-over-year.


Softwood lumber prices declined 25.5% quarter-over-quarter while Southern Plywood 15/32” 4-ply prices declined 22.6% versus the end of Q3.

Latin AmericaIn Q3, Brazil’s GDP increased 0.8% quarter-over-quarter versus a 0.2% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q2.

For the three months ended October, changes in Brazilian softwood sawtimber prices were generally positive, depending on assortment, with veneer logs (large-diameter) experiencing more notable year-over-year gains.

In Q4, Brazilian charcoal prices increased 38.1% year-over-year given lower charcoal supply, improvement in automobiles, and a weaker real. The price of eucalyptus used in charcoal production increased 8.8% year-over-year.

Eucalyptus pulpwood prices in Brazil declined 0.1% for the three months ended October and 0.6% year-over-year.

Uruguay’s GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.1% in Q3 versus 2.6% growth in Q2.

Eucalyptus pulpwood prices in Uruguay were flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in Q4.

Elsewhere in Latin America in Q3, Chile’s GDP increased 2.8% year-over-year and Argentina’s GDP declined 3.5% year-over-year.

EuropeIn Q3, euro zone GDP increased 0.2% quarter-over-quarter versus 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2.

In Estonia, pine sawlog prices increased 11.4% year-over-year while birch sawlog prices increased 10.0% year-over-year given increasing global sawlog demand. Estonian pine pulpwood prices increased 59.7% year-over-year while birch pulpwood prices increased 94.4% year-over-year due to factors which limited timber availability.

South AfricaSouth Africa’s economy emerged from a short-lived recession with GDP increasing 2.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 following a 0.4% quarter-over-quarter decline in Q2.

*GDP is reported in real terms while timber and wood products pricing are reported in nominal terms **For every country mentioned in this report, real GDP reflects 3Q2018; 4Q2018 real GDP will be released between February 2019 and mid-April 2019

In November, lumber prices increased 1.9% versus the prior three months and 1.3% from November 2017.

Softwood log prices were mixed. In Q3: A-grade logs increased 2.0% for the quarter, but declined 0.5% year-over-year, B-grade logs declined 4.0% for the quarter, but increased 1.7% year-over-year, C-grade logs increased 2.4% for the quarter and 4.7% year-over-year, and D-grade logs increased 4.5% for the quarter and 5.3% year-over-year.

New Zealand / AustraliaIn Q3, New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.3% quarter-over-quarter versus growth of 1.0% quarter-over-quarter in Q2.

New Zealand A-grade export log prices declined due to slower Chinese demand. Domestic log prices declined due to increased log availability.

In Q3, Australia’s GDP increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter versus growth of 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q2.

Despite slowing housing demand due to tighter credit conditions, Australian softwood and hardwood roundwood prices increased. Softwood chip prices moved higher while hardwood chip prices moved lower.

Global Pulp & Paper MarketsIn Q4, bleached hardwood kraft pulp (“BHK”) prices declined 0.5% versus Q3 but were still up 11.1% year-over-year.

Prices began to modestly soften at the end of the quarter due to weaker Chinese demand and elevated inventories.

Bleached softwood kraft pulp (“BSK”) prices declined 0.3% versus Q3 but were still up 28.4% year-over-year.

During the quarter, weakening end-market demand and elevated pulp inventories began to pressure prices.


United States


In Q3, US GDP expanded at an annual rate of 3.4% versus 4.2% in Q2 (Figure 1). The Q3 growth in GDP reflected increases in personal consumption, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports also increased, which subtracted from GDP. The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in December from 3.7% in November while the change in total nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) was 312,000 in December versus 176,000 in November. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate increased to 63.1% in December versus 62.9% in November, still trending along low levels (Figure 2).

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector continued to expand in December, although at a slower pace given tariff concerns and increased caution over future growth. The ISM, a bellwether of manufacturing activity, was at 54.1% in December versus 59.3% in November (Figure 3). The ISM is a diffusion index with values over 50% indicating growth and values below 50% indicating contraction.

Figure 1. Annualized Quarterly US Real GDP Growth (%)

Sources: US Dept. of Commerce, BEA

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Uemployment Rate (L) Labor Force Participation Rate (R)

Figure 2. US Unemployment, and Labor Force Participation Rate

Sources: US Dept. of Labor, BLS

Figure 3. US ISM Purchasing Managers Index

Source: Institute for Supply Management

US HousingThe US housing market continues to improve at a gradual pace. In November, housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (“SAAR”) of 1.256 million units (Figure 4). This figure is up 3.2% versus October’s 1.217 million units (SAAR), but down 3.6% versus November 2017’s 1.303 million starts (SAAR). The share of multifamily starts as a percentage of total starts increased to 34.4% versus 29.0% in October.

New single-family home sales declined 8.9% month-over-month in October (Figure 5). Existing home sales increased 1.9% month-over-month in November (-7.0% year-over-year) to 5.32 million units (SAAR). Inventories of existing homes declined to 3.9 months in November versus 4.3 months in October, a very low level of inventory by historical standards.


Figure 4. Annual US Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate and 30-year Mortgage Rates

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, US Dept. of Commerce Census Bureau

Figure 5. Monthly New Home Sales, New Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates

Sources: US Dept. of Commerce Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors

In November, building permits increased 5.0% month-over-month. This increase was driven by a 14.8% month-over-month increase in multi-family permits and a slight 0.1% month-over-month increase in single-family permits.

US Forest Products and Timber MarketsLumber, Oriented Strand Board (“OSB”), and Plywood markets experienced pricing weakness throughout most of the quarter. In aggregate, softwood lumber prices declined 25.5% quarter-over-quarter (Figure 6), the largest quarterly decline since Q406, following what had been a strong increase in lumber pricing earlier in 2018 due to strong demand, lean inventories, and some logistical issues stemming from inclement weather. Throughout the quarter, lumber prices declined due to seasonally softer demand, destocking, and slower construction activity in certain parts of the US due to inclement weather (e.g., Hurricane Michael

in Florida; heavy rain in Texas). In response, a number of western lumber mills took downtime, but excess supply and lackluster demand continued to pressure prices. During Q4, structural panel pricing declined 19.3% quarter-over-quarter (Figure 6), the largest quarterly decline since Q406, following a strong price increase earlier in the year due to extended order files and limited supplies. Similar to lumber, OSB prices declined throughout the quarter due to destocking and as producers lowered prices in order to move product. Moreover, prices experienced pressure from greater OSB supply given Martco’s new OSB plant in Corrigan, Texas, and restarts of Tolko’s mill in High Prairie, Alberta, Norbord’s mill in Huguley, Alabama, and Huber’s mill in Spring City, Tennessee. Construction activity in the US South also moderated due to poor weather. By the end of Q4, Southeast 7/16” OSB prices declined 40.7% to US$ 175 per thousand square feet (“msf”) versus US$ 295/msf at the end of Q3. Meanwhile, plywood prices declined given weaker demand (despite Hurricane Michael), slower construction activity, and active inventory management. By the end of Q4, Southern Plywood 15/32” 4-ply prices declined 22.6% to US$ 360/msf versus US$ 465/msf at the end of Q3.

Figure 6. US Framing Lumber Index and Panel Composite Index

Source: Random Lengths

Figure 7. US Southwide Quarterly Pine Chip-n-Saw and Sawtimber Prices



Throughout the US South, pine sawtimber prices increased 0.6% in Q4 and 1.6% year-over-year according to TimberMart-South (Figure 7). Chip-n-saw prices declined 1.0% sequentially in Q4 and 1.4% year-over-year. Pine sawtimber and chip-n-saw prices averaged the highest in Florida and lowest in Tennessee.

Southern hardwood sawtimber prices were mixed during Q4. Region-wide, mixed hardwood sawtimber prices increased 2.6% for the quarter and 1.5% year-over-year. Oak sawtimber prices declined 1.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.2% year-over-year (Figure 8).

In New York’s Adirondack region, northern red oak sawtimber remained flat quarter-over-quarter, but increased 29.0% year-over-year. Hard maple sawtimber remained flat quarter-over-quarter, but declined 5.9% year-over-year (Figure 9).

Figure 8. US Southwide Quarterly Mixed Hardwood and Mixed Oak Sawtimber Prices


Figure 9. Quarterly Northern Red Oak and Hard Maple Sawtimber Prices in New York

Source: Forest2Market

Source: Steigerwaldt and Burns

In Ohio, red oak sawtimber declined 12.4% versus Q3 and 6.0% year-over-year. Hard maple sawtimber slightly increased 0.8% during the quarter but declined 13.3% year-over-year. White oak sawtimber increased 0.5% quarter-over-quarter and 7.1% year-over-year (Figure 10).

In Wisconsin, northern red oak sawtimber declined both 10.0% quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in Q4 (Figure 11). Hard maple sawtimber declined 8.0% quarter-over-quarter and 2.8% year-over-year. Yellow birch sawtimber declined both 8.0% quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Figure 10. Northern Red Oak, Hard Maple, and White Oak Sawtimber Prices in Ohio

Source: Forest2Market

Figure 11. Northern Red Oak, Hard Maple, and Yellow Birch Sawtimber Prices in Wisconsin


In the Pacific Northwest, softwood sawlog prices declined across all grades. The price of Douglas-fir #2 declined 12.2% sequentially and 11.0% year-over-year (Figure 12). As of November 2018 (latest data available), Douglas-fir #2 is now 3.2% below its prior 2014 peak. The price of Whitewood #2 sawlogs declined 11.1% for the quarter and 5.1% year-over-year. As of November 2018, Whitewood #2 is now 6.7% below its prior 2014 peak. In September 2018 (the latest available data), total softwood log exports to China declined 27.8% year-over-year to 71.74mmbf from 99.42mmbf in September 2017 while softwood log exports to Japan increased 0.6% year-over-year to 34.38mmbf from 34.19mmbf in September 2017.

In the US South, hardwood pulpwood prices increased 6.3% in Q4 and 17.4% year-over-year while pine pulpwood prices increased 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, but declined 6.5% year-over-year (Figure 13).

Figure 12. Monthly Columbia River #2 Douglas-fir and Mixed Whitewood Log Prices

Source: Log Lines

Figure 13. US Southwide Quarterly Mixed Hardwood and Mixed Pine Pulpwood Prices


TIG’s View from the GroundIn Eastern South Carolina, pulpwood prices have significantly increased since early December due to consistent wet weather, which has made procuring wood challenging, and strong demand from pulp mills. Sawlog prices have largely remained stable given excess timber on the stump, and the fact that a number of sawmills can utilize their own standing timber and therefore do not have to rely on spot market timber purchases. In North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, pulpwood prices have seen some modest price tension while sawlog prices have largely been flat.

In Southwest Arkansas, a predominantly solid wood market, sawlog prices increased given wet weather and a dearth of logging capacity. Timber demand has also improved as Georgia-Pacific has expanded its Gurdon lumber and plywood mill, Weyerhaeuser recently rebuilt its Dierks lumber mill, and West Fraser began procuring wood in southwest Arkansas for its Mansfield lumber mill, located in northwest Arkansas.

In East Texas, another predominantly solid wood market, trends were similar to Southwest Arkansas with sawlog prices increasing given wet weather and a logger shortage.

In South Central Alabama, repeated wet weather did not have any notable impact on timber pricing due to timber availability. Mills appear to have ample wood decks and loggers have been able to source wood from other locations.


In Virginia, timber prices have notably increased due to wet weather. That said, timber sellers remain cautious given WestRock’s acquisition of KapStone, which has afforded the combined company increased pricing power (controlling the four largest integrated board mills in Virginia).

In Ohio, timber prices have increased (pulpwood prices have increased more notably than sawtimber prices) due to tight supply (wet weather has restricted the ability of loggers to harvest), depleted mill log decks, and strong end-market demand. With respect to log decks, mills historically would build their log decks over the summer. However, wet weather over the summer, which continued into the fall, has resulted in lean log decks causing mills to scramble for wood with some mills even offering bonuses for wood procurement. Meanwhile, end market demand (pulp, whiskey barrels, railroad ties, pallets, flooring, cabinetry, and furniture) remains robust.

In Appalachia, despite concerns about slowing hardwood demand given US / China tariffs, demand for quality hardwood sawtimber remains steady given growing domestic end-markets including railroad ties and plywood. Inclement weather has resulted in slightly better pricing over the last few months.

In Wisconsin, timber markets have slowed due to the onset of winter and as mills have ample log decks.

In the Pacific Northwest, log prices declined given softer domestic consumption and slower exports. However, pricing has recently begun to rebound.

Industrial & Capacity UpdateDuring the quarter, PotlatchDeltic announced an agreement to sell its El Dorado Medium Density Fiberboard (“MDF”) business near El Dorado, AR to Roseburg Forest Products for around US$ 92 million. Georgia-Pacific began production at its new US$ 100 million Talladega, AL lumber mill. The mill currently produces 230mmbf and is targeted to produce 300mmbf in the near future. The company also announced that it closed its Warm Springs, GA plywood production facility (195mmsf ) citing challenging market conditions and OSB substitution. Weyerhaeuser completed the US$ 190 million build-out of its Dierks, AR lumber mill, which has the capacity to produce 380mmbf while Boise Cascade announced that it is permanently curtailing laminated veneer lumber (“LVL”) production at its Roxboro, NC mill.

Meanwhile, Tolko Industries US, a subsidiary of Canadian forest products producer Tolko Industries Ltd, and Southeastern Timber Products announced a 50/50 joint-venture partnership in Southeastern’s lumber mill in Ackerman, MS. The joint venture aims to increase the mill’s capacity to 300mmbf from 100mmbf. Last, Canfor announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Elliott Sawmilling Co (210mmbf ) located in Estill, SC for US$ 110 million.

In paper and board, WestRock, a multinational provider of paper and packaging solutions for consumer and corrugated packaging markets, completed its acquisition of KapStone, a North American producer and distributor of containerboard, corrugated products and specialty papers. The company is also looking to bring its Panama City, FL mill to full production (353,000 tons of linerboard and 292,000 tons of market pulp) after it was heavily damaged by Hurricane Michael. Meanwhile, ND Paper announced plans to invest US$ 111 million at its Rumford, ME mill and US$ 189 million at its Biron, WI mill for upgrades, conversions, and recycled pulp capacity. ND Paper plans to complete the projects within two years. On a related note, ND Paper completed the acquisition of the idled Old Town kraft pulp mill in Old Town, ME, aiming to restart production in 1Q2019 and ultimately producing 275,000 MT of unbleached kraft pulp. The Finance Authority of Maine also selected ND Paper to receive US$ 12 million in state tax credits for its Old Town mill. During the quarter, Greif, a global leader in industrial packaging products and services, announced that it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Caraustar Industries, a leading recycled paperboard and packaging solutions company in a cash transaction valued at US$ 1.8 billion. In addition,


Graphic Packaging plans to invest US$ 350 million over six years at its Augusta, GA bleached coated paperboard mill (two active paper machines with total capacity of 526,575 tons and an idled paper machine with capacity of about 128,500 tons). Last, Resolute Forest Products completed the sale of its Catawba, SC mill for US$ 300 million to New-Indy Containerboard.

Paper & Forest Products DutiesIn late November, China and the US agreed to forgo any further tariffs for the next few months and to explore ways in which both countries could deescalate their current trade impasse. As a result, the US agreed to delay the imposition of higher tariffs until March (tariffs on US$ 200 billion of Chinese goods including imported pulp and paper products will remain at the current rate of 10% and not increase to 25%) while China agreed to increase its purchases of US agricultural, energy, industrial, and other products. Duties that China has already applied to the US timber and forest products

industry - Doug-fir logs (5%-10%, depending on diameter), hemlock logs (5%-10%, depending on diameter), southern yellow pine logs (25%), kraftliner (5%), market pulp (5%), recycled paper (25%), and recycled pulp (10%) – remain in effect.

Meanwhile, in November, the US signed a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement “USMCA”) replacing the prior North American Free Trade Agreement (“NAFTA”). The agreement still needs to be ratified by the legislative bodies of all three countries. While the USMCA keeps in place the ability for each country to challenge one another’s anti-dumping and countervailing duties in front of a panel of representatives from each country, it does not address the current softwood lumber dispute between the US and Canada. As such, given the countervailing and anti-dumping duties the US has applied to Canadian lumber, Canada continues to pursue three appeals through NAFTA and two appeals through the World Trade Organization.


Latin America


Brazilian EconomyIn Q3, Brazil’s GDP increased 0.8% quarter-over-quarter following a 0.2% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q2. Quarter-over-quarter, agricultural production increased 0.7%, industrial activity increased 0.4%, and service activity increased 0.5%. Investment increased 6.6% quarter-over-quarter following a 1.3% quarter-over-quarter decline in Q2. BTG Pactual’s Brazilian Economics team currently expects 2019 GDP of 2.8% and 2020 GDP of 2.8%.

As part of this modest improvement, household spending increased 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 versus 0.1% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2. Unemployment declined to 11.6% in the September-November quarter from 12.1% in the June-August quarter. Moreover, industrial production declined 0.9% year-over-year in November after increasing 0.8% year-over-year in October.

During the quarter, inflation declined due to lower gasoline and electricity costs. As a result, the Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (“IPCA”) declined to 3.75% annualized in December from 4.53% annualized in September (Figure 14)1. Real rates have also trended somewhat lower as evidenced by declining Treasury inflation-protected bond yields (Figure 15). In December, Brazil’s central bank held the Selic rate flat at 6.50%.

Meanwhile, exports increased 6.7% sequentially in Q3 following a 5.1% quarter-over-quarter decline in Q2. Imports increased 10.2% sequentially after declining 1.2% in Q2. Separately, while the real appreciated 3.7% sequentially in Q4, it still remains 17.2% lower year-over-year (Figure 16) given fiscal and political uncertainties.

Figure 14. Brazilian SELIC Rate and Annualized IPCA Index

Source: Banco Central do Brasil, Brazilian Institute of Geography

and Economics

Figure 15. Brazilian Treasury Inflation Protected Bond Yield

Source: Brazil National Treasury

Figure 16. US Dollar: Brazilian Real Daily Exchange Rates

Source: Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System

1 The IPCA tracks continuous variations in consumer prices for households with income of up to 40 times the minimum wage.


On the political front, Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party (“PSL”) was sworn in as the new President of Brazil on January 1, 2019. Referred to as “Tropical Trump” in some circles, Bolsonaro is a populist, anti-establishment leader elected to office to improve Brazil’s security situation and economic environment. As part of his initiatives, Bolsonaro intends to pursue social security reform and economic reforms including increasing privatizations (e.g, railroads, airports, ports, etc) and greater infrastructure development while minimizing government spending and eliminating corruption. With respect to social security reform, Bolsonaro appears to have a sense of urgency as evidenced by his desire to use former President Michel Temer’s proposal as a basis for pursuing reform, which would allow the revised bill to go directly to the floor of the Lower House. If Bolsonaro were to pursue new social security legislation, it would have to go through two commissions before heading to the Lower House, a process which could take around nine months. On a related note, Sergio Moro, the judge overseeing the Lava Jato (“Car Wash”) scandal, was appointed to serve as justice minister in Bolsonaro’s cabinet, a public indication of his intention to make good on his anti-corruption campaign promises. In December, Temer was charged with corruption and money laundering following an investigation into graft related to port concessions. Meanwhile, Brazilian Federal Police raided the home of former Science and Technology Minister Gilberto Kassab on accusations that he received bribes from JBS, one of the largest global meatpacking companies, between 2010-2016. In December, a Brazilian lower court ruled that prisoners serving sentences but appealing are constitutionally entitled to freedom, which would have allowed former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is serving a 12-year prison sentence for corruption and money laundering, to be released from jail. However, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court overturned that ruling for the time being and intends to revisit the issue in April.

Brazilian Forest Products and Timber MarketsThe price of pine timber in Brazil was generally positive during the quarter. Through the end of October, pulpwood (8-18 cm) in Paraná State declined 0.9% quarter-over-quarter but increased 0.8% year-over-year in local currency terms. Small sawtimber (18-25 cm) increased 0.4% quarter-over-quarter and 4.7% year-over-year while large-diameter sawtimber (25-35 cm) increased 0.3%

Figure 17. Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices in Paraná State, Brazil

quarter-over-quarter and 3.0% year-over-year. Veneer logs (35+ cm), used primarily for export-oriented softwood plywood, slightly declined 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, but increased 5.4% year-over-year (Figure 17). The price of larger diameter sawtimber continues to be driven by exports, particularly of plywood and lumber.

Wood charcoal, which is used to produce pig iron which in turn is used to make steel, has improved after a number of years of being challenged by a significant supply/demand imbalance. While charcoal prices declined 7.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, they are still 38.1% higher year-over-year (Figure 18, left axis). Moreover, the Q4 sequential price decline occurred after charcoal prices had already increased 49.1% since the end of 2017 due to lower charcoal supply, an improvement in durable goods such as automobiles, and a weaker Brazilian real. Charcoal pricing also tends to be one of the central drivers of eucalyptus stumpage pricing (Figure 18, right axis). In Q4, Minas Gerais eucalyptus prices increased 2.2% quarter-over-quarter and 8.8% year-over-year.

Source: STCP


Figure 18. Charcoal and Eucalyptus Stumpage Prices in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Sources: Associação Minera de Sivicultura; Poyry Silviconsult

Meanwhile, eucalyptus pulpwood prices slightly declined 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (ended October) and 0.6% year-over-year on a countrywide basis (Figure 19).

The price of pine resin, a secondary product that can be collected from pine plantations between harvests and is used in the production of synthetic rubber, glues, adhesives, printer inks, and other products, increased during Q4. Mixed tropical pine resin increased 10.5% quarter-over-quarter while slash pine resin increased 10.7% quarter-over-quarter (Figure 20).

Figure 19. Brazil Eucalyptus Pulpwood (8-18 cm) Stumpage Prices

Source: STCP

Figure 20. Average Annual Resin Prices in Brazil

Source: Associação dos Resinadores do Brasil

TIG’s View from the GroundIn Q4, TIG’s Brazilian regional foresters continued to report that improving Brazilian economic conditions resulted in better timber market conditions in most Brazilian states.

In Minas Gerais, timber demand continues to increase resulting in higher stumpage prices. Through November, automobile production, a significant driver of pig iron demand, has increased 8.7%. Meanwhile, despite some weakness the last few months, pulp demand remains resilient (consumption up 3.7% year-to-date through November according to Ibá, the Brazilian Tree Industry Association) with some mills aggressively looking to procure multi-year contracts to secure timber for the next few years.

In São Paulo (Itapeva region), demand for pulpwood and sawnwood remain strong. Shipments of corrugated board, which are used to package a variety of goods, have increased 2.2% year-to-date through November. With respect to sawnwood, demand continues to increase, rising 3.8% year-to-date through November according to Ibá. That said, pulpwood supply remains elevated as the large area of new plantations established in 2007-2009 have started to reach harvestable ages.

Similar to the other regions, the pulp market in Paraná (Guarapuava region) remains robust with many companies increasingly looking to purchase wood. Log demand has also benefited from strong sawnwood exports. Meanwhile, timber owners are hopeful that Klabin will build a second 1 million


Figure 21. Uruguay E. globulus and E. grandis Pulpwood Prices (Nominal US$ / m3)

Source: Litenco

MT unbleached kraft pulp line at its Puma plant, as announced last quarter, which would further increase demand and help address a surplus of standing pulpwood.

In Santa Catarina, timber supply exceeds demand as a large area of tree plantations established between 2002-2011 are reaching maturity at the same time. Moreover, timber demand is concentrated among a limited number of buyers, thereby making it difficult for timberland owners to negotiate higher prices. Klabin recently purchased some plantations, which it will likely use to feed its own mills in the state.

Industrial Capacity UpdateDuring the quarter, WestRock announced a US$ 345 million investment at its Três Barras packaging mill in southeast Brazil, including additional virgin pulping capacity, a new biomass power boiler, a new turbine generator, and debottlenecking two paper machines. In aggregate, the expansion increases the mill’s current capacity of 470,000 MT to 680,000 MT. The startup is planned for the first half of 2021. In November, the European antitrust authority approved the combination of Suzano and Fibria, clearing the way for both companies to close the transaction which occurred on January 14. As part of the approval, Fibria ended its commercial bleached eucalyptus pulp kraft arrangement with Klabin (selling 900,000 MT of Klabin’s pulp outside South America).

UruguayIn Q3, Uruguay’s GDP increased 2.1% year-over-year versus 2.6% year-over-year growth in Q2. Manufacturing increased 4.6% year-over-year while transportation increased 6.1% year-over-year. Gross fixed capital formation declined 0.4% year-over-year in Q3 versus an increase of 3.0% year-over-year in Q2 while household spending increased 2.7% year-over-year versus an increase of 2.6% year-over-year in Q2. Exports declined 10.4% year-over-year versus a decline of 7.5% year-over-year in Q2 while imports increased 3.3% year-over-year versus an increase of 5.0% year-over-year in Q2. During Q4, the Uruguayan peso depreciated 11.7% year-over-year.

In Uruguay, E. globulus and E. grandis prices were flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in Q4 (Figure 21).

In January, UPM announced that it is taking part in the international public tendering process in the port of Montevideo organized by the National Ports Administration of Uruguay. The purpose of the tender is the building and operation of a port terminal specialized in the storage and shipping of pulp, chemicals and other inputs related to pulp production with a capacity to handle approximately 2 million MT of pulp annually. As part of UPM’s agreement with the Government of Uruguay related to its evaluation of a new 2 million MT pulp mill, the Government needs to make significant progress with infrastructure development including a port terminal. If UPM is awarded a concession in this stage, it expects its initial investment in the port terminal to be US$ 20 million. If UPM decides to proceed with a greenfield mill, it expects its total investment in the port terminal to reach US$ 260 million.

TIG’s View from the GroundIn Q4, TIG’s local staff reported that pine sawlog demand was steady, partially due to stable ocean freight rates and despite global economic uncertainty. However, demand for eucalyptus pulpwood logs remains solid given strong demand from local pulp producers, which continue to produce at full production.

ChileIn Q3, Chile’s GDP increased 2.8% year-over-year following 5.4% year-over-year growth in Q2. Agriculture increased 7.5% year-over-year and


construction increased 4.1% year-over-year, partially offset by mining which declined 2.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation increased 7.1% year-over-year, government spending increased 2.3% year-over-year, and consumer spending increased 3.8% year-over-year. Exports increased 1.7% year-over-year while imports increased 8.4% year-over-year. In Q4, the Chilean peso depreciated 7.4% year-over-year.

On the political front, Chile and Brazil signed a free trade agreement that eliminates tariffs in 17 key areas and cell phone charges between the two countries.

ArgentinaIn Q3, Argentina’s GDP declined 0.7% quarter-over-quarter versus a decline of 4.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2. On a year-over-year basis, GDP declined 3.5% versus a decline of 4.0% year-over-year in Q2. Argentina’s economy continued to contract in Q3 due to manufacturing weakness (-6.6% year-over-

year) and a severe drought which continued to negatively impact agricultural production (-5.2% year-over-year). In turn, this weakness negatively affected exports (-5.9% year-over-year) as the country is one of the largest global producers/exporters of soybeans and corn. The decline in exports also comes despite the Argentinian peso depreciating 85.1% year-over-year (35.7% sequentially) against the US dollar.

On the political front, a federal court confirmed that former president and current senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will stand on trial for corruption charges accusing her of receiving bribes from business leaders who had been awarded significant government contracts. While Ms. Kirchner is protected from pre-trial imprisonment given her parliamentary immunity, it does not prevent prosecution. More than a dozen government officials and 30 businessmen have been implicated.


Europe


In the euro zone, Q3 GDP increased 0.2% quarter-over-quarter as compared to 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2. Year-over-year, GDP increased 1.6%. On an individual country basis, quarter-over-quarter GDP growth increased in France, was flat in Spain, and moderated in Germany and Italy. Gross fixed capital formation grew 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 versus growth of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2. Both personal consumption and government spending increased at slower rates versus the prior quarter. Unemployment slightly declined to 7.9% in November versus 8.0% in October.

Meantime, European net exports of goods (exports less imports) declined year-over-year. In November (latest month reported), exports increased 1.9% year-over-year while imports increased 4.7% year-over-year, resulting in a euro zone trade in goods surplus of €19.0 billion versus a goods surplus of €23.4 billion in November 2017.

Estonian Forest Products and Timber MarketsSawlog prices in Estonia increased over the last few months and year-over-year. Pine sawlog prices (latest data available November 2018) increased 2.7% from three months earlier and 11.4% year-over-year. Birch sawlog prices increased 2.5% from three months earlier and 10.0% year-over-year (Figure 22). Sawlog prices remain higher year-over-year given increasing global sawlog demand, particularly from China, as China has likely shifted demand from the US given the current trade dispute.

Estonian pulpwood prices were also higher. Pine pulpwood prices (latest data available November 2018) increased 1.4% from three months earlier and 59.7% year-over-year while birch pulpwood prices increased 5.0% from three months earlier and 94.4% year-over-year (Figure 23). Prices remain elevated due to challenging weather conditions earlier in the year and recent forest fires, both of which limited harvests. Given this lower timber supply, some sawmills took downtime.

Figure 22. Estonia Sawlog Prices (Nominal € / m3)

Source: RMK (Estonia State Forest Agency)

Figure 23. Estonia Pulpwood Prices (Nominal € / m3)

Source: RMK (Estonia State Forest Agency)


South Africa


In Q3, South Africa emerged from a short-lived recession with GDP increasing 2.2% quarter-over-quarter. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing increased 6.5 % quarter-over-quarter while manufacturing increased 7.5% quarter-over-quarter.

On the political front, the ruling African National Congress (“ANC”) party and populist Economic Freedom Fighters, the third-largest party, used their majorities to force through the adoption of a report recommending that constitutional amendments be made to explicitly permit land expropriation without compensation. Meanwhile, South Africa’s High Court rejected a legal challenge brought by a group representing white farmers against President Cyril Ramaphosa’s plans for land expropriation without compensation. Separately, President Ramaphosa fired the head of the country’s tax collection agency while the home affairs minister resigned, both events due to their connections to the scandal-plagued former President Jacob Zuma.

South African Forest Products and Timber MarketsIn November, lumber prices increased 1.9% versus the prior three months and 1.3% from November 2017, as measured by the South African Lumber Index, a composite price series (Figure 24).

Softwood log prices were mixed (Figure 25). Sawlogs in South Africa are categorized into A, B, C or D grades, with A-grade logs being the smallest and D-grade logs being the largest. In nominal terms in Q3 (latest data available): A-grade logs increased 2.0% for the quarter, but slightly declined 0.5% year-over-year, B-grade logs declined 4.0% for the quarter, but increased 1.7% year-over-year, C-grade logs increased 2.4% for the quarter and 4.7% year-over-year, and D-grade logs increased 4.5% for the quarter and 5.3% year-over-year.

Despite the aforementioned price gains, it is worth noting that annual inflation in South Africa is 5.2%, so in real terms most of the year-over-year gains are negative (i.e., A-grade logs: -5.4% real year-over-year, B-grade logs: -3.4% real year-over-year; C-grade logs: -0.1% real year-over-year, and D-grade logs: 0.1% real year-over-year). Meanwhile, in Q4, the rand depreciated 9.2% sequentially against the US dollar (Figure 26), but slightly appreciated 0.4% sequentially against the Euro (Figure 27).

Figure 24. South Africa Lumber Index

Source: Crickmay and Associates

Figure 25. South Africa Pine Sawlog Prices

Source: Crickmay and Associates


Figure 26. South Africa Rand to US$ Exchange Rate

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Figure 27. South Africa Rand to Euro Exchange Rate

Source: Bloomberg


New Zealand


In Q3, New Zealand’s GDP increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter versus 1.0% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2. Exports slightly increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter on strength in agriculture and fishing products and oil & coal, partially offset by weakness in chemicals and services while imports declined 0.2% quarter-over-quarter due to gasoline. In Q4, the New Zealand dollar appreciated 0.4% quarter-over-quarter against the US dollar (Figure 28).

New Zealand Timber MarketsNew Zealand A-grade export log prices declined 3.0% in September to NZ$ 162/m3 versus NZ$ 167/m3 in June (Figure 29) as a weaker Chinese yuan slowed Chinese log demand (less buying power). Trade commentary suggests that prices modestly rebounded early in Q4 due to declining Chinese log inventories before softening again later in the quarter due to a stronger NZ dollar versus the US dollar. Domestic structural logs used for construction (S1 and S3) were weaker given increased log availability (Figure 30).

Figure 28. NZ Dollar / US$ Exchange Rate


Figure 29. NZ Export Log Prices

Source: New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries

Figure 30. New Zealand Domestic Log Prices

Source New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries.


Australia


In Q3, Australia’s GDP increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter versus growth of 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q2. Despite this quarterly increase, three of Australia’s key industries – agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining, and manufacturing – declined by 1.6%, 0.9%, and 0.7%, respectively. Meantime, exports slightly increased 0.1% quarter-over-quarter while imports declined 1.5% quarter-over-quarter. In Q4, the Australian dollar depreciated around 1.8% quarter-over-quarter against the US dollar (Figure 31).

Australian Timber MarketsDespite slowing housing demand due to tighter credit conditions, softwood roundwood prices increased 3.6% in Q3 to US$ 86/odmt (“oven dry metric ton”) from US$ 83/odmt in Q2 (Figure 32). Hardwood roundwood prices increased 1.0% quarter-over-quarter to US$ 100/odmt from US$ 99/odmt in Q2 (Figure 33). Softwood chip prices increased 2.2% while hardwood chip prices declined 1.8% in Q3. Australia is the second largest exporter of chips to China following Vietnam.

Figure 31. Australia Dollar to US$ Exchange Rate


Figure 32. Australian Softwood Pulpwood Prices

Source: Wood Resource Quarterly

Figure 33. Australian Hardwood Pulpwood Prices

Source: Wood Resource Quarterly


Global Pulp and Paper Markets


During Q4, BHK prices in Europe, a key benchmark, declined 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, but was still higher 11.1% year-over-year, averaging around US$ 1045/MT (Figures 34 & 35). Although prices were flat earlier in the quarter, they began to modestly soften at the end of the quarter due to weaker Chinese demand and elevated inventories.

Specifically, hardwood pulp shipments declined 3.0% year-over-year in November with total pulp shipments to China declining 10.7% year-over-year. While demand for hardwood pulp was stronger earlier in the year, weakness in Chinese paper and board markets has eroded demand and caused hardwood pulp inventories to increase to 44 days of supply, 3 days above the 10-year average of 41 days. On a positive note, both Indonesian-based Asia Pacific Resources International (“APRIL”) and its Chinese affiliate Asia Symbol intend to reduce hardwood market pulp supply by around 500,000 MT in 2019 as they convert existing hardwood pulp capacity to dissolving pulp.

The price of BSK in Europe, a bellwether of the pulp and paper sector, averaged around US$ 1223/MT, down 0.3% versus the prior quarter, but up 28.4% year-over-year (Figures 34 & 35). Similar to hardwood pricing, softwood pulp pricing was generally flat though most of the quarter given relatively balanced supply and demand fundamentals before beginning to soften towards the end of the quarter.

During November, softwood pulp shipments declined 9.4% year-over-year. A deceleration in Chinese demand for softwood pulp has caused inventories to increase with softwood pulp inventories at 35 days of supply, 6 days above the 10-year average of 29 days. Meanwhile, pulp inventories at European ports have increased 36.5% since the beginning of the year. In response, some producers have begun to lower prices in order to spur demand.

Figure 34. Global BSK and BHK Pulp Prices over Time

Source: FOEX

Figure 35. Global BSK and BHK Pulp Prices Recent Performance

Source: FOEX


Baltic Dry Index


In Q4, the Baltic Dry Index, which provides a benchmark for the price of transporting major raw materials including grains, coal, and iron ore by sea, declined 17.5% during the quarter (Figures 36 & 37). Amongst other factors, there were increased

concerns over global economic slowing, which weighed on global trade. At a value of 1271 on December 31, 2018, the index remains well below its peak of 11,793 reached in May 2008.

Figure 37. Baltic Dry Index Recent PerformanceFigure 36. Baltic Dry Index Performance over Time

Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg


Disclaimer


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Timberland Investment Group Market Report · 2019. 2. 25. · report, real GDP reflects 3Q2018;...

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