Tim Storey National Conference of State Legislatures ... · Tim Storey National Conference of State...
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Tim Storey National Conference of State Legislatures October 12, 2018
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Tim Storey
National Conference of State Legislatures
October 12, 2018
State Elections 2018
Governor Elections - 36
D: 9
R: 26
I: 1 House Only: 4
Legislature Elections
No 2018 Elections: 4
Both House and Senate: 42
State Legislatures 2018
Democrat - 14
Split - 4
Nonpartisan
Republican - 31
State Legislatures 2018 Get Real Version*
Democrat - 13
Split -6
Republican - 31
* Factors in coalitions in AK House, NY Senate; NE = Republican.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Legislative Seats Held by Party 1900-2018
Governor Party 2018
Democrat - 16
Republican - 33
Independent- 1
State Governments 2018
Democrat - 7
Divided - 17
Republican- 26
President's Party in Mid-Term Elections
Seats Gained/Lost
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Avg. Loss
= 412
Legislative Battlegrounds 2018
Governor Elections
Solid/Likely=5
Lean R=2
Toss Up = 8
Lean D=7
Solid/Likely=14
50%
40%
30%
20%
60%
70%
Generic
U.S. House Ballot
Projected Seat Gain
for Democrats
GOP +6 224
GOP +4 269
GOP +2 314
Tie 359
Dem +2 404
Dem +4 448
Dem +6 494
Reapportionment 2020
*Election Data Services Projections
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25 Days to Go•••
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Pre-election Turnover over 23% = 1300 New Legislators
What Kind of Wave?
