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![Page 1: This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment Développement dune évaluation quantitative de.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551d9d80497959293b8b9080/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Développement d’une évaluation quantitative de risque microbiologique pour évaluer le risque de
salmonellose humaine suite à la consommation de viande hachée de porc en Belgique
L. Delhalle1, W. Messens2, K. Bollaerts3, M. Aerts2, Y. Van der Stede4, S. Quoilin5, E. De Busser6, J. Dewulf6, D. Maes6, I. Boone4, K. Mintiens4 & K. Grijspeerdt2, G. Daube1
1 University of Liège, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Food Science Department – Microbiology Section, Liège, BE2 Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research, Technology and Food Unit, Melle, BE3 University Hasselt, Center for Statistics, Diepenbeek, BE4 Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre, Coordination Centre for Veterinary Diagnostics, Brussels, BE5 Institute for Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Toxicology, Division of Epidemiology, Brussels, BE6 Ghent University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Reproduction, Obstetrics and Herd Health, BE
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Présentation
Le projet METZOON
AQRM & MPRM
Le modèle METZOON
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Présentation
Le projet METZOON
AQRM & MPRM
Le modèle METZOON
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Objectifs
Evaluation quantitative de risque associée avec la consommation de viande hachée de porc contaminée par Salmonella en Belgique
Appréciation Quantitative de Risque modulaire (ARQ) permettant une analyse de scénarios et analyse de sensibilitéSystème objectif pour décrire la qualité des informations et des assomptions utilisées pour construire le modèleDéveloppement et améliorations de la méthodologie statistique employée dans les AQR’s.Identification des données manquantes et collecte de données via différentes sources
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Durée: 2005-2008
Ressources: Agence Fédérale pour la Sécurité de la Chaîne alimentaire (AFSCA)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Présentation
Le projet METZOON
AQRM & MPRM
Le modèle METZOON
![Page 7: This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment Développement dune évaluation quantitative de.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551d9d80497959293b8b9080/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
AQR
Appréciation quantitative du risque décrit la probabilité/sévérité du risque pour la santé suite à l’exposition à des agents microbiens Codex Alimentarius
Identification du danger, caractérisation du danger, évaluation de l’exposition, caractérisation du risque
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
MPRM = modular process risk model Processus modulaire
“Modulaire”
“Processus”Processus microbiologiquesCroissanceInactivation
Processus de manipulation de la nourritureDécoupeHachagePortionsContaminations croisées
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Présentation
Le projet METZOON
AQRM & MPRM
Le modèle METZOON
![Page 10: This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment Développement dune évaluation quantitative de.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551d9d80497959293b8b9080/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Description du modèle
Détermination du nombre de salmonelloses humaines causées par la consommation de viande hachée de porc ?
De la “Fourche à la fourchette” avec les modules (MPRM):Production primaireTransport et attenteAbattoirDécoupe te hachageDistribution et stockagePréparation et consommation
Simulation de Monte-Carlo implanté dans @Risk et MatlabParamètres d’entrées (input) ~ distributionEchantillon des distributions combinés pour estimer le risque 1
Répété N fois 1, 2,…, N
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Identification du danger
En 2006: salmonelloses reportées < campylobactérioses Les serovars différents de Enteretidis deviennent proportionnellement plus importants STM reste constant (IPH)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Schéma
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Evaluation de l’exposition: production primaire (1)
Seroprevalence des troupeaux de porcsDonnées provenant du programme de surveillance de Salmonella (AFSCA) (VAR, Van der Stede et al.)Pour chaque troupeau la proportion du nombre d’animaux positifs est calculée (SP-ratio > 0.25) Densité pondérée par le nombre d'échantillons prélevés au sein d'un troupeauEstimation de la densité par la méthode P-splines
Nombre d’animaux séropositifs dans un batch.
Statut sérologique de chaque porc
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Transport et attente (1)
Conversion du statut sérologique à un statut de contamination interne et externe pour chaque porc
Statut interne: Probabilités de transition dérivées de deux études belges :
Nollet et al. (2005) ont étudié la relation entre les ganglions mésentérique (mesenteral lymph nodes (MLN)) et la sérologie à l’abattoir(MLN=pos|SERO=pos, pi) (MLN=pos|SERO=neg, pi)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Transport and lairage (2)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Transport and lairage (3)
Botteldoorn et al. (2003) ont étudié la relation entre MLN et le contenu caecal (CC) à l’abattoir(CC=pos|MLN=pos)=0.539 (CC=pos|MLN=neg)=0.115
Statut interne des porcs est positif si MLN=pos et/ou CC=pos
Le statut externe est dérivé de données de Davies et al. (1999)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
AbattoirEvolution de la prévalence de la contamination externe de la carcasse: saignée, flambage , polisseuse , éviscération , et refroidissement Données d’opinions d’experts (VAR, Boone et al.)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Découpe et hachage
Changement dans la concentration causée par les procédés de fabrication
DécoupeEn supposant une distribution homogène de la
contamination
HachageSimplement une sommeModélisation simultanée de plusieurs carcasses
provenant de différents lots de porcs
Portions1 batch de viande hachée = 5000 portionsLa contamination des salmonelles est distribuée
aléatoirement dans les portions (taille des portions variables)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Distribution et stockage
Modèle de croissance d’Oscar (1999)Croissance en Log par unité de temps en fonction de la température des étapes et de la concentration en NaCl Température
– Données (ULiège, Delhalle et al.)– Température minimum de croissance: 10°C
Concentration en NaCl (%)– carcasses: 0.9– Viande hachée: ~unif(1.12,1.72)
Durées des étapes– données (ULiège, Delhalle et al.)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Preparation and consumption (1)
Cross-contamination: Nx
Principle according to Mylius et al. (2007)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Préparation et consommation (2)
Sous cuisson: Ncook
Assomptions of Hill et al. (2003)Probabilité de sous cuissonTempérature et durées de cellules se trouvant dans une « aire protégée « de la portion de viande hachéeLa survie des salmonelles est calculée par la D-value
Dose en salmonelles: Ndose = Nx + Ncook
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Caractérisation du risque (1)
Risque pour la santéSymptômes de salmonelloses non-typhoïdeDiarrhée, douleur abdominale, mal de tête, nausées,
fièvre, (vomissements)Conséquences limitées mais peut être dangereux
pour les groupes sensibles (YOPI group)
TraitementAntibiotiques uniquement lorsque l’infection peut
devenir potentiellement mortelle, mais il existe des multi résistances rendant le traitement difficile
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Caractérisation du risque (2)
Modèle dose-réponse S. Typhimurium pour la population normale et sensible (CENSTAT, Bollaerts et al., 2008)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Caractérisation du risque
Population sensible (groupe YOPI)24.0% de la population 0-5 ans, âgée > 65 jaar (IPH)
Nombre de consommation par année = 11
Ncases_sens = Ncons × 24% × ncons × sens
Ncases_norm = Ncons × 76% × ncons × norm
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Résultats de base pour l’abattoir
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Résultats de base : découpe et hachage
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Résultats de base pour la caractérisation du risque
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Résultats de base pour la caractérisation du risque
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Analyse de sensibilité (graphique Tornade)
Correlations for Prevalence after inspection/D51
Correlation Coefficients
Fn,e / Expected/B19-,006
Fn,sc / Expected/B10-,006
Fn,pol / Expected/B17-,007
Propfarm,IC / Expected/B3 ,013
Propfarm,I / Expected/B4 ,043
Pec,TL / Expected/B6-,123
Fp,mi / Expected/B22-,203
Fp,sp / Expected/B20-,204
Fp,d2 / Expected/B12-,204
Fp,sc / Expected/B9 ,204
Fp,d1 / Expected/B11-,204
Fp,sk / Expected/B7-,278
Fp,e / Expected/B18-,286
Fp,pol / Expected/B16-,394
Fp,sg / Expected/B14-,554
P Proc Mi/B34 1
-1 -0,75 -0,5 -0,25 0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Conclusions
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
Merci à
DVM Ludo BollaertsDr. Rob Davies (VLA)Drs. Nathalie Nollet and Nadine BotteldoornDr. Bianca Cox (IPH)Marc Vandebroeck (Covavee)Drs. Katie Vermeersch, Julie Witz (FASFC)Prof. Dr. Stefaan De Smet (UGent)
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This research is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service of Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
BibliographieAFSCA (2007). Activity report 2006. Brussels, Federal Food Agency: 186.Anonymous. (2003, 15/04/2003). "Opinion of the Scientific Committee on Veterinary Measures relating to Public Health on Salmonellae in foodstuffs." Retrieved 20/06/2006, from http://ec.europa.eu/food/fs/sc/scv/out66_en.pdf.Anonymous (2006). Annual report on human Salmonella and Shigella in Belgium 2006. National Reference Center for Salmonella and Shigella. Brussels, Scientific Institute of Public Health: 38.Feinberg, M., et al. (2006). Analyse de risque alimentaire. Paris, Editions Tec et Doc.Toma, B., et al. (1991). Glossaire d’épidémiologie animale. Maisons-Alfort, Editions du Point Vétérinaire.Vose, D. (2000). Risk analysis A quantitative guide. Chichester, John Wiley & Sons Inc.Vose, D. (2005). ModelAssist Advanced for @Risk. V. Consulting. Gent, Risk Thinking Ltd.