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Transcript of acfstakeholders.orgacfstakeholders.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/ACFS-SW… · Translate this...
• Develop understanding of flows and levels under varying historic conditions
• Predict flows and levels under future conditions
• Investigate variations in ACF system operations
• Recommend changes in ACF system operations
WHY MODEL?
2
2. Problem Definition/Performance Indicators
1. Work Plan
8. Report and Study Dissemination
3. Tailoring of Models to Indicators
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC2011 2012
4. Data and Information
5. Devel. of Water Management Altern.
6. Conduct Iterative Basin Assessments
7. Seek Consensus
TASKS
JAN FEB2013
Q1 Board MeetingQ2 Board Meeting
Q3 Board Meeting
Q4 Board MeetingOverall Schedule
MODEL FLOW CALCULATION AT NODE
16 March 2012
4
Qout
NodeQinflow
Qout @ Node = Qinflow + Qreturn ‐ Qwithdrawal
Qwithdrawal
Qreturn
MODEL FLOW CALCULATION AT A NODE WITH STORAGE
16 March 2011
5
Qout
Node
Qinflow
Qwithdrawal
Qreturn
QevapQprecip
Qout @ Node = Reservoir Release
Reservoir Release can be a complex calculation of volume stored, inflow, time, or other factors
• Nodes
• Storage (volume and stage/storage)
• Hydropower facilities
• Water withdrawals
• Water returns
• Evaporation history
• Precipitation history
• Operation constraints
• Unimpaired inflows
MODEL INPUTS
16 March 2011
6
• Unimpaired inflow (UIF) series represent the natural inflows that would occur if no human development were present in the basin and were derived by removing the human influences on the water cycle from historically observed streamflowmeasurements.
UNIMPAIRED FLOWS
8
Performance Indicators
• Levels (flows) in river for navigation
• Flood frequencies
• Low flow frequencies
Constraints
• Reservoir minimum flow release
• Flow X at node Y
• Flow ramping
• Reservoir operations
CONSTRAINTS AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
13
1. Unimpaired Baseline
2. Baseline with construction of reservoirs
3. Baseline with RIOP operation of reservoirs
4. RIOP operation of reservoirs AND current water demands and discharges
5. Alternative Scenarios (iterative)a. Operational Rulesb. Scenarios
MODELING SCENARIO PROGRESSION
14
Task 6.1
Task 6.2
• Description of a specific combination of inputs and operational constraints
WATER MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVE
15
• 2060 water demands and returns, including legislated water conservation measures
• 2060 water demands and returns, including X% municipal conservation, Y% agricultural conservation, with additional storage as required to meet desired flows
• 2060 water demands and returns, modified reservoir operations plans
WATER MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES
16