Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Release - UP

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Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Release October 17, 2013 Jack Koraleski, CEO 2 2011 2012 2013 $1.85 $2.19 $2.48 Best-Ever Quarter Third Quarter 2013 Record Results +13% Earnings Per Share Third Quarter Positives Best-Ever Quarter Operating Revenue Operating Income Operating Ratio Earnings Franchise Diversity Challenges Grain Volumes Coal Volumes Colorado Flooding

Transcript of Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Release - UP

Page 1: Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Release - UP

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Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Release October 17, 2013 Jack Koraleski, CEO

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2011 2012 2013

$1.85

$2.19

$2.48 Best-Ever Quarter

Third Quarter 2013 Record Results

+13%

Earnings Per Share Third Quarter Positives

• Best-Ever Quarter – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio – Earnings

• Franchise Diversity

Challenges • Grain Volumes • Coal Volumes • Colorado Flooding

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Third Quarter 2013 Marketing & Sales Review October 17, 2013 Eric Butler, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales

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Chemicals

Automotive

Coal

Third Quarter 2013 Recap

Volume ARC Freight Revenue

Freight Revenue Performance (Year-Over-Year Change)

Volume Growth

Flat

+5% +5%

Freight Revenue Mix

Agricultural 15% Autos 10%

Chemicals 17%

Coal 21%

Industrial 18%

Intermodal 19%

Agricultural

TOTAL

-1%

+8%

-4%

-7%

+3%

Flat

+9% Industrial Products

Intermodal

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Agricultural Products Revenue $771M (-2%) Volume 210K (-4%) ARC $3,679 (+2%)

Quarterly Drivers • Limited Corn Supply • Replenishment of Low Ethanol

Inventories • Reduced Import Beer

Grain Products

36%

Grain 37%

Food & Refrigerated

27%

Volume Mix

73.2 75.2

Grain Products*

2012 2013

69.9 63.8

Grain*

2012 2013

-9%

58.7 56.1

Food & Refrigerated*

2012 2013

*Volume in thousands of carloads and excludes equipment shipments

+3%

-4%

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Automotive Revenue $512M (+17%) Volume 195K (+8%) ARC $2,620 (+9%)

Finished Vehicles

56%

Volume Mix 104.5

110.2

Finished Vehicles*

2012 2013

+5%

76.5 85.3

Auto Parts*

2012 2013

+12%

*Volume in thousands of carloads

Quarterly Drivers • Continued Replacement of

Aging Vehicles • Production Stabilized at Key

Assembly Plants

Auto Parts 44%

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Coal Revenue $1,082M (+2%) Volume 468K (-7%) ARC $2,312 (+10%)

Quarterly Drivers • Contract Loss & Mild Weather • Soft Demand and Colorado

Flooding Impact CO/UT Coal • Growth from Other Regions

44.7 41.1

Southern Powder River Basin*

2012 2013

*Tons in millions

8.4 7.0

Colorado/Utah*

2012 2013

-8%

-17%

Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

Other 13%

1Q 4Q

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

25,000

29,000

33,000

37,000

41,000

45,000

2011

2012

2Q 3Q

2013 (19%) Flat

(7%)

WY Blizzard

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Industrial Products Revenue $975M (+11%) Volume 325K (+9%) ARC $2,998 (+2%)

Quarterly Drivers • Drilling Activity – Frac Sand • Increased Construction Activity • Housing Start Growth • Growth in Iron Ore and Energy

Related Metals

Paper 9%

Gov’t/Waste 12%

Metals 19%

Volume Mix*

Minerals/ Consumer

19%

Construction 32%

Lumber 9%

**Volume in thousands of carloads *Beginning in 3rd Quarter 2013, Shipments of Salt, Carbon Black, Rubber and Magnesium Chloride are reported under Gov’t / Waste.

93.8 104.1

Construction**

2012 2013

51.0 61.7

Non-Metallic Minerals**

2012 2013

+21%

42.0 40.3

Gov’t / Waste**

2012 2013

+11%

-4%

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Intermodal Revenue $1,027M (Flat) Volume 848K (-1%) ARC $1,211 (+2%)

Quarterly Drivers • Port Transloading Impacts

International • Highway Conversions Drive

Domestic Growth

International 52%

Domestic 48%

Volume Mix 469.9

444.1

International*

2012 2013

-5%

387.3 404.2

Domestic*

2012 2013

+4%

*Volume in thousands of units

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Chemicals Revenue $883M (+5%) Volume 282K (+3%) ARC $3,134 (+2%)

Quarterly Drivers • Improved Industrial Chemicals

Markets • Strength in Petroleum Products • Narrowing Crude Spreads Impact

Short-haul Moves **Volume in thousands of carloads * Beginning in 2013, Fertilizer includes Phos Rock and Sulfur; Soda Ash includes

Sodium Products; Crude Oil separated from Petroleum & LPG

Volume Mix*

Plastics 21%

Industrial Chemicals

23%

Petrol. & LP Gas

14% Fertilizer 18% Soda Ash

10%

Crude Oil 14%

21.6 23.8

Petroleum Products**

2012 2013

60.1 65.7

Industrial Chemicals**

2012 2013

+9%

40.5 38.5

Crude Oil**

2012 2013

+10%

-5%

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Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail

FY 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

36.7

22.0

33.7

40.5 41.3 45.6 46.9

38.5

Crude Oil Carloads (000s)

2012 2013 2011

• Dynamic & Evolving Marketplace

• Spreads Impact Crude Flows

• New Destination Facilities Being Developed

• Long-term Fundamentals Remain Solid

St. James

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Fourth Quarter 2013 Outlook

Agricultural Products + Fall Crop / Grain shipments Automotive + Auto Sales Growth Chemicals + Most Markets Remain Solid ? Crude Oil Spreads Coal – Contract Loss ? Weather Industrial Products + Shale Drilling - Frac Sand + Housing & Construction Intermodal – International + Domestic Highway Conversions

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Third Quarter 2013 Operations Review October 17, 2013

Lance Fritz, Executive VP - Operations

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Dedicated Focus on Safety Third Quarter YTD Employee

(Reportable Personal Injury Incidents Per 200,000 Employee-Hours)

Rail Equipment (Reportable Derailment Incidents

Per Million Train Miles)

Public (Crossing Accidents Per Million Train Miles)

2010 2011 2012* 2013*

1.37 1.15

1.04 1.05

Good

2010 2011 2012* 2013*

2.98

3.28 3.35 3.26 -3% Good

2010 2011 2012* 2013*

2.32

2.11

2.34 2.18

Good -7%

All-Time Annual Record

• Continue to Strengthen Our Safety Culture

• Infrastructure Investment & Focus on Human Factor Incidents

• Align Public Safety Activity to High Risk Areas

+1%

* January-September

All-Time Annual Record

All-Time YTD

Record

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2010 2011 2012 2013

90 87 89 89

94 94 95 96

Network Performance Third Quarter • Sequential and Year-Over-

Year Improvement • Colorado Flooding Impact • Agility & Resiliency

Demonstrated with Resources & Service Plan • Strategic Investments Aid

in Recovery & Add Capacity • Positioned for Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013

25.7 24.6

26.1 26.3

Velocity (as Reported to the AAR)

Service Delivery* and IS&P Industry Spot & Pull % Good

* Includes early deliveries

**

** Best-ever quarterly record

+1%

Good

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Network Productivity Third Quarter

2010 2011 2012 2013

990 958

623

384

Slow Order Miles Good

3rd Qtr Record

-38%

Locomotive Productivity (Gross Ton Miles per HP Day)

Flat

+1%

-2%

+3% South

Agility & Resource Readiness (vs 3Q 2012)

North

West

Total

Volume Active TE&Y

3%

Flat

-1%

-2%

+3%

(Gross Ton Miles per HP Day)

2010 2011 2012 2013

120 118

120 121 Good +1%

* All-time quarterly record

Nbr of Cars Switched

Y&L Employee Days

Cars Switched* (per employee day)

+1.5%

Flat

+1.5%

Manifest Growth Impact (vs 3Q 2012)

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Full Year 2013

• Safety, Service and Network Productivity

• Resource Agility

• Effective Capital Deployment

• Well Positioned for Growth with Excellent Service

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Third Quarter 2013 Financial Review October 17, 2013

Rob Knight, CFO

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Third Quarter Income Statement In Millions (except EPS)

Operating Revenues $5,573 $5,343 4 Operating Expenses 3,611 3,557 2 Operating Income 1,962 1,786 10 Other Income 28 28 - Interest Expense (138) (137) 1 Income Taxes (701) (635) 10 Net Income $1,151 $1,042 10 Weighted Average Diluted Shares 464.2 475.2 (2)

Diluted EPS $2.48 $2.19 13

2013 2012 %

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Freight Revenue Third Quarter (In Millions)

2012

Volume & Mix

Core Price

Fuel Surcharge

2013

+1.1%

+3.5% $5,250

$5,019

+4.6%

Flat

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$1,188 $1,196

Compensation & Benefits Expense Third Quarter 2013 $1,196M, +1%

2012

Compensation & Benefits (in Millions)

2013

46,205 46,605

2012

Workforce Levels (Quarterly Average)

2013

+1%

• Inflation Costs • Higher Training Costs • Productivity Gains • Flat Volume

• Increased Workforce

– TE&Y Training – Capital (including PTC)

+1%

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Fuel Expense Third Quarter 2013 $866M, -2%

• Lower Average Diesel Fuel Price

• GTMs down 2% compared to 2012

• 1% Consumption Rate Increase

$3.19 $3.17

Average Fuel Price (Per Gallon Consumed)

2012 2013

245,415 241,350

2012

Gross Ton-Miles (in Millions)

2013

-2%

-1%

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$542 $588

Third Quarter 2013 Expense Review In Millions

2012

Purchased Services & Materials

2013

• Increased Locomotive & Freight Car Repair Costs

• Joint Facility Maintenance • Logistics Management Fees

+8%

$447 $447 • Higher Depreciable Asset

Base • New Equipment Rate Study • Timing of Asset Purchases

and Project Work Completion 2012

Depreciation

2013

Flat

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Third Quarter 2013 Expense Review (cont) In Millions

• Container Costs - Contract Arrangement

• Higher Freight Car Rental Expense

$300 $309

2012

Equipment & Other Rents

2013

+3%

• Higher Property Tax Expense • Increased Freight Damage

Costs • Moderately Lower Personal

Injury Expense

$200 $205

2012

Other

2013

+3%

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Operating Ratio Performance

2011 2012 2013

69.1

66.6

64.8

Third Quarter (Percent)

-1.8 pts

Best-Ever Quarter

Best-Ever Quarter

• Solid Core Pricing

• Productivity Gains & Network Efficiencies

• Flat Volumes

Reiterate Full Year Sub-65 Operating Ratio

Goal by 2017

YTD Operating Ratio = 66.5%

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$12,753 $12,772 $13,025

Cash from Ops

Investing Dividends

$4,366

($2,866)

($860)

$4,881

($2,596)

($968)

Strong Financial Position Nine Month Period Ending September 30 ($ In Millions)

• Solid Free Cash Flow of $1.3 Billion ‒ Strong Cash from Ops ‒ 13% Cash Dividend

Increase

• Strong Balance Sheet ‒ Investment Grade Credit

Rating

Free Cash Flow*

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. Adjusted Debt to Capital

2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012

Total Debt* (Adjusted)

40.7% 39.1%

12/31/2011 12/31/2012

38.5%

9/30/2013

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Driving Strong Shareholder Value

• Repurchase Activity ‒ 3.7 Million Shares in 3Q ‒ 9.6 Million Shares YTD

• Cash Returned to Shareholders in Dividends and Share Repurchases up 15%

• 5.4 Million Shares Remaining in Current Authorization

Dividends & Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)

Quarterly Share Repurchases ($ In Millions)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

$433 $415 $378

$248

$394 $463

$575

2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2012

2012 YTD 2013 YTD

$2.09 $2.40 Dividends

Share Buybacks +15%

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Closing out 2013 and Looking Ahead to 2014 2013 • Modest Volume Growth in

the 4th Quarter • Full Year Record Earnings 2014 • Modest Volume Growth

Assuming Economy Cooperates

• Continued Real Core Pricing Gains but Lower than 2013

• Growing Returns • Increased Shareholder

Value

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Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Release October 17, 2013 Jack Koraleski, CEO

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Potential of the UP Franchise

• Well Positioned for Economic Recovery – Capitalize on

Opportunities – Navigate through

Challenges

• Reinvestible Pricing

• Leverage Capital Investments

• Grow Customer Value & Shareholder Returns

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Cautionary Information This press release and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to future economic improvement and its ability to capitalize on any future economic improvement; provide safe, efficient and reliable service; maintain agility; and generate value for its customers and shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

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Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Release October 17, 2013 Question & Answer Session