ThinkHQ Poll

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.

P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C. P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.



P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .

Copyright 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever, without the prior written consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.

Albertas Public Affairs Monitor

VOICE OF ALBERTA

April 2015 Wave 2

CONFIDENTIAL: VOA Provincial Election April 2015 - Wave 2 Copyright 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGYPUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Study fielded via hybrid methodology: Survey instrument via Online Research Panel & random, stratified Live-Dial Telephone (mixed landline and cellular)

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Field Dates: April 26-28, 2015

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Panel Sample Sources: Voice of Alberta & Vision Critical PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Sample Composition

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Telephone: n=801

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Online Panel: n=1313

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Total Sample: n=2114

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Weighted to reflect gender, age, region of Alberta population according to Stats Canada

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .A majority of the sample is derived from on-line research panel. Online survey component utilizes a representative but not random sample, therefore margin of error not applicable. However, a probability sample of 2114 would yield a margin of error of +/-2.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C.P U B L I C A F F A I R S I N C .Accuracy of sub-samples of the data decline based on sample sizes

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REGIONAL SAMPLE SIZES & MARGINS OF ERROR

Total Interviews (Unweighted)

(n)

Total Interviews (Weighted)

(n)

Margin of Error (Associated with a probability

sample of this size)

ALBERTA TOTAL

Calgary CMA

Edmonton CMA

North

Central

South

2114

737

638

224

263

252

2114

709

643

274

254

234

+/- 2.1

+/- 3.6

+/- 3.9

+/- 6.6

+/- 6.0

+/- 6.2

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PROVINCIAL POLITICAL HORSERACE - DECIDED VOTE -

1%

4%

9%

20%

27%

39%

If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

Some other party

% Decided Voters (n=1891)

Initial Undecided 13%

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PROVINCIAL POLITICAL HORSERACE

- THQ TRACKING -

Electi

on 201

2

Oct

12

Dec

12

Feb 13

Apr

13

June

13

Sept

13

Nov

13

Jan 14

Mar'1

4

May'1

4

July'

14

Oct'1

4

Dec'1

4

Jan'1

5

Apr6

'15

Apr2

8'15

1%3% 4% 4%

5%2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%

1%3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4%

5% 5% 4%

10% 11%12% 13%

14% 14% 14%12%

14%16%

14% 14%12%

14% 14%12%

9%10%

14%16% 16%

13%15% 14% 14% 15% 15%

17%

13% 13% 14%

19%

26%

39%

34% 33%35%

38% 39%41%

38% 39% 38%

46%

41% 41% 40%

30%

20%

31%

27%

44%

36%

31%

26% 26% 26% 27%28%

30%

19%

24%26%

31%

36%

40%

25%

20%

PC WR NDP Lib AB Oth

% Decided Vote

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PROVINCIAL POLITICAL HORSERACE - BY REGION -

Alberta Total Calgary (CMA) Edmonton (CMA) North Central South

1%1%1%0%1%1%3%3%4%2%

6%4%

34%

30%

36%

56%

31%

39%

7%6%

11%8%

11%9%

34%37%

31%

17%

28%27%

21%22%

18%17%

23%20%

PCs WRP LIB NDP ALBERTA OTHER


% Decided Voters (n=1891)

DECIDED VOTE (Leaners Included)

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0%

2%

8%

17%

17%

56%


Some other party

% Decided Voters (n=582)Initial Undecided

11%

EDMONTON (CMA)

MARGIN OF ERROR (Based on a probability

sample of this size) (+/-4.1)

Low

51.9%

12.9%

12.9%

High

60.1%

21.1%

21.1%

3.9% 12.1%

6.1%

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1%

6%

11%

23%

28%

31%


Some other party

% Decided Voters (n=641)Initial Undecided

13%

CALGARY (CMA)

MARGIN OF ERROR (Based on a probability

sample of this size) (+/-3.9)

Low

27.1%

24.1%

19.1%

High

34.9%

31.9%

26.9%

7.1% 14.9%

2.1% 9.9%

4.9%

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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PROVINCIAL POLITICAL HORSERACE - CALGARY(CMA) TRACKING -

2012

Elxn

Oct

12

Dec

12

Feb 13

Apr

13

June

13

Sept

13

Nov

13

Jan 14

Mar'1

4

May'1

4

July'

14

Oct'1

4

Dec'1

4

Jan'1

5

Apr6

'15

Apr2

8'15

0%

6% 6%

3% 3% 2% 2%4%

2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2%3% 2% 1%1%

4% 3% 4% 4%5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%

6%8% 7% 6%

11% 11% 12%14% 15% 13%

15% 14% 15% 15% 13%

19%

12%

15% 14% 14%

11%

5%

14% 15% 14%12% 12% 12%

10%

13%

10% 11%

8% 8%10%

12%

18%

31%

37%

32%

35%

38%

43%

40%

37%39% 38%

49%

44%

40% 40%

29%

20%

32%

28%

45%

33%

28%26%

22%

28% 29%30% 30%

20%

27% 27%

34%

38%

44%

27%

23%


% Decided Vote

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PROVINCIAL POLITICAL HORSERACE - EDMONTON(CMA) TRACKING -

2012

Elxn

Oct

12

Dec

12

Feb 13

Apr

13

June

13

Sept

13

Nov

13

Jan1

4

Mar'1

4

May'1

4

July'

14

Oct'1

4

Dec'1

4

Jan'1

5

Apr6

'15

Apr2

8'15

1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%2%

4% 4% 4% 3% 4%5% 4%

6%4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 3% 2%

14% 15%

19%16%

18% 19% 18%

14%

20% 21%

17%15% 14%

18%

14%12%

8%

18%

23% 24% 22%

17%

22% 21%

26%

19%

23%

27%

22% 23% 21%

32%

38%

56%

22%19%

24%

30%33%

29%32% 31%

29%

35%32%

35%32%

22%

14%

23%

17%

43%

39%

28%26% 27%

24%22%

25% 25%

16%

20%23%

26%

32%34%

22%

17%


% Decided Vote

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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VOTER CERTAINTYThe provincial election is being held on May 5, 2015. Thinking about your feelings today, how certain are you about which

partys candidate you will vote for? Please use a scale anywhere from 0 to 100 where 100 means you are absolutely certain and 0 means you are absolutely not certain about which partys candidate you will be voting for on May 5th?

5%

23%

23%

16%

33%Absolutely Certain (100)

Unsure

% Albertans

Very Certain (81-99)

Somewhat Certain (51-80)

Not Very Certain (0-50)

MEAN 73.4

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VOTER CERTAINTY BY VOTE INTENTION

The provincial election is being held on May 5th. Thinking about your feelings today, how certain are you about which partys candidate you will vote for?

32%

24%

20%

11%

31%

23%

23%

26%

11%

13%

18%

22%

25%

38%

35%

40%

Absolutely Certain (100) Very Certain (81-99) Somewhat Certain (51-80) Not Very Certain (0-50)

NDP (744)

Wildrose (504)

Liberal (167)

PC (386)

% Albertans

MEAN (out of 100)

82.9

77.5

73.2

64.1

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VOTE SHIFT: THE PC VOTE - SINCE APRIL 2012 ELECTION -

PC Popular Vote 2012

44%Election tomorrow 20%

39%

18%

34%

5%

3%

Some Other Party0%

Undecided: 15% PC Voters

2012 April (n=690)

Decided Vote

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3%

7%

23%

10%

5%

4%

11%

21%

13%

5%

60%

64%

46%

52%

36%

8%

8%

4%

12%

28%

2%

1%

3%

5%

22%

Much Better Somewhat Better About the same Somewhat worse Much worse Net Better Unsure

7%

4%

5%

% Albertans

-37

Brian Jean and the Wildrose Party

Jim Prentice and the Progressive Conservatives

22%

9%-8

+3

+40

50%

17%

7%

9%

10%

10%

23%

44%

18%

7%

Rachel Notley and the Alberta New Democrats

-7

Greg Clark and the Alberta Party

David Swann and the Alberta Liberals

SHIFT IN IMPRESSIONS TOWARDS PARTY LEADERS

Compared to your feelings a week ago, have your personal impressions toward each of the following gotten better, worse or stayed about the same?

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PC WR NDP LIB UND TOTAL

Rachel Notley (NDP) +10 +20 +78 +36 +27 +40

Brian Jean (Wildrose) -23 +39 -28 -6 -8 -7

Jim Prentice (PC) +18 -47 -62 -29 -27 -37

By Provincial Vote Intention (Net Better)

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Calgary Edmonton North Central South TOTAL

Rachel Notley (NDP) +39 +46 +40 +35 +36 +40

Brian Jean (Wildrose) -7 -10 +3 -10 -7 -7

Jim Prentice (PC) -33 -43 -38 -37 -29 -37

By Provincial Vote Intention (Net Better)

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PUBLIC CONCERNS ABOUT POSSIBLE ELECTION OUTCOMES

Anything can happen in an election. Thinking about Albertas future, how concerned would you personally be if each of the following election outcomes were to occur in the May 5th election?

% Albertans

The Wildrose Party is elected as government

The Progressive Conservatives are re-elected as government

The New Democrats are elected as government 25%

15%

12%

24%

23%

17%

21%

25%

27%

26%

33%

41%

Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concernedNet

Concerned Unsure

4%

4%

3%

-2

+39

+20

68% 29%

58% 38%

47% 49%

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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PUBLIC CONCERNS ABOUT POSSIBLE ELECTION OUTCOMES

-BY VOTE INTENTION-

Total (2114)

NDP (744)

WR (504)

PC (386)

LIB (167)

Undecided (164)

PCs Re-elected 68% (41%)

88% (59%)

79% (46%)

79% (49%)

52% (22%)

WR Government 58% (33%)

78% (50%)

72% (39%)

65% (40%)

48% (20%)

NDP Government 47% (26%)

79% (48%)

81% (53%)

42% (11%)

41% (22%)

Provincial Vote Intention % Concerned - Total (% Very Concerned)

PUBLIC AFFAIRS INC.

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Copyright 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever, without the prior written consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.

For more information, please contact: Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. [email protected]

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