Diversity and Validity of Stable-Unstable Transitions in the Algorithmic Weak Stability Boundary
THERE IS NO STABLE COUNTRY WITH UNSTABLE BANKS.
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Transcript of THERE IS NO STABLE COUNTRY WITH UNSTABLE BANKS.
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Improvement of the credit market in Poland
Krzysztof PietraszkiewiczPresident of Polish Bank Association
Tel Aviv 14 June 2012
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THERE IS NO STABLE COUNTRY WITH UNSTABLE BANKS.
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Area 312 679 km2
Population 38 135 000
Capital Warsaw, Population 1,702 mln
Currency Złoty (PLN) = 100 groszy (gr.)
Number of enterprises Over 3,5 million
Life expectancy 79,7 women, 71,0 men
GDP growth
POLAND
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Unemployment in Poland (1990-2011)
%
3,43
8,98
12,93
14,9916,49
15,2114,29
11,49 9,9811,99
14,0116,23
19,7119,92
19,51
18,19
14,80
11,20
9,50
10,70
12,9013,10
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
4
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Inflation 1991-2011
Źródło: GUS,
585,5
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• Poles remember the anguish and long-term struggle with inflation.
• Poles know what the credibility is.
• We are proud what Poland has achieved, but we are also aware of the risks.
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National debt/GDP
Źródło: GUS, 2012
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Budget deficit/GDP
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STATE OF PLAY
a) Stable,b) Modern, c) Well-managed and well-supervised, but... backlogs are still enormous and difficult problems to solve.
We have the right to be proud of stability in economic policy and banking system which is:
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Banks play a special role in the Polish economy.
Poland is still an underbanked country.
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Polish financial system structure
Źródło: NBP
Open retirement fund
Stock-brokersInvest Funds
Insurance corporations
Banks
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Number of Polish banks
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Deposits of the nonfinancial sector in millions PLN
Źródło: NBP
100 597125 890
144 857 151 251 166 028182 737
204 995184 282
220 836239 361262 400
331 997379 671
425 917482 082
491 331
19,0% 19,8%
23,9%
28,2%30,4%
33,6% 34,5
30,4 29,6 29,3 29,226,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0,0
100 000,0
200 000,0
300 000,0
400 000,0
500 000,0
600 000,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 03/2012
Corporations House Holds Corporations/Non-financial sector
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Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cypru
s
Czech Rep
ublic
German
y
Denmark
Estonia
Spain
Finlan
dFra
nce UK
Greece
Hungary
Irelan
dIta
ly
Lithuan
ia
Luxe
mbourgLat
viaMalt
a
Netherl
ands
Poland
Portuga
l
Romania
Swed
en
Slove
nia
Slova
kia 10
100
1,000
DepositsNonMFI/GDP
Deposits to GDP in the EU in 2010 in %
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A deficiency in domestic savings .
Too small part (only 4%) of
long-term savings.
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11/20110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Kredyty Depozyty
Credits to deposits
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Credits for nonfinancial sector in billions of PLN
Źródło: NBP
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
800,0
900,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 03/2012
117,9 120,4 116,0 119,1 136,5 171,2 216,0 212,0 204,0 238,9 242,086,1 98,1 109,6 136,0
182,9254,1
367,0
412,0477,5
534,0 526,0
9,2 10,7 11,0 11,914,7
15,8
16,0
25,0 33,2
38,936,0
Corporations house holds Local goverment units
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Special Credits
• Technology• Ecology • Modernisation of Agriculture• Renewable energy
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Number of active mortgage credits
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Total value of mortgage credits lending in millions PLN
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Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cypru
s
Czech Rep
ublic
German
y
Denmark
Estonia
Spain
Finlan
dFra
nce UK
Greece
Hungary
Irelan
dIta
ly
Lithuan
ia
Luxe
mbourgLat
viaMalt
a
Netherl
ands
Poland
Portuga
l
Romania
Swed
en
Slove
nia
Slova
kia 10
100
1,000
10,000
Loans/GDP in %
Loans/GDP
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A WELL-PREPARED AND EXPERIENCED POLISH BANKS PERSONNEL .
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Employees
Źródło: KNF, 2011
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OWN FUNDS IN THE BANKING SECTOR ARE BUILTCONSISTENTLY.
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Own Funds in millions PLN
Źródło: NBP
3 394 5 257 7 66112 526
17 86122 468
25 76730 689
37 76940 558
40 56442 71946 587
51 234
61 765
74 346
88 423
100 598
110 876115 533
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 03/2012
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Assets in billions PLN
Źródło: KNF, 2011r.
26
428 460 466 489539
587
681
801
1041 1060
1 159
1 295 1 302
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 03/2012
PL
N M
ld z
ł.
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Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cypru
s
Czech Rep
ublic
German
y
Denmark
Estonia
Spain
Finlan
dFra
nce UK
Greece
Hungary
Irelan
dIta
ly
Lithuan
ia
Luxe
mbourgLat
viaMalt
a
Netherl
ands
Poland
Portuga
l
Romania
Swed
en
Slove
nia
Slova
kia 10
100
1,000
10,000
Assets/GDP in %
Assets/GDP
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A good quality loan portfolio
Good performance of the banking sector
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Non-performing loans to loans in total
Źródło: NBP
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STRUCTURE OF EVERYDAY PAYMENT (cash payments dominance)
Źródło: NBP
CASHCARDSPAYMENT ORDER
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Card transactions value in millions PLN
Źródło: NBP
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
50,000.0
100,000.0
150,000.0
200,000.0
250,000.0
300,000.0
350,000.0
400,000.0
450,000.0
11,589.034,385.0
64,211.688,494.9
109,306.7130,067.4
156,671.9
187,246.8
218,939.5
265,158.9
304,289.4330,450.5
353,822.0
389,036.6
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Payment cards in Poland
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Internet banking
Źródło ZBP
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Stable position of the National Bank of Poland.
A stable and strong position of the banking
supervision – Polish Financial Supervision
Authority.
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Key elements of Polish banking infrastructure
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Key elements of the Polish financial sector infrastructure
Banking market
• Bank Guarantee Fund• National Clearing House• Bureau of Credit
Information• Bereau of Economic
Information Infomonitor• The Polish Banking
Ombudsman • Effective system of
banking training and education
Capital market
• Warsaw Stock Exchange
• National Depository for Securieties
• CCP• Bondspot• Power Exchange
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www.bik.pl 37
Bureau of Credit Information
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Economic Data Office
Number of reports published by Economic Data Office in 2006-2011
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National Clearing House
• Krajowa Izba Rozliczeniowa S.A. develops and markets innovative solutions pertaining to the exchange of electronic information. Such solutions have a significant influence on shaping and developing Polish e-economy. Products and services offered by KIR S.A. are targeted at banks and financial institutions, enterpreneurs, public administration, as well as at e-commerce operators and their clients.
• Products:– BILIX– PayByNet– ELIXIR– EuroELIXIR
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The Bank Guarantee Fund
The Bank Guarantee Fund's mission is to work in favour of the safety and stability of banks and to increase confidence in the banking system.
The basic tasks of the Fund are:- to reimburse, up to the amount specified by the Act on the BGF, of funds
accumulated on bank accounts, in the event of the bankruptcy of a bank which is a participant in the deposit guarantee scheme,
- to provide financial assistance to banks which have found themselves faced with a loss of solvency and are engaging in independent reforms,
- to support processes involving the merger of endangered banks with strong bank entities,
- to collect and analyse information about entities covered by the guarantee system, including the preparation of analyses and forecasts concerning the banking sector.