August 1, 2016

“The wholesale market values continue to depreciate at a humdrum pace as dealers report slow sales in retail.”

Anil Goyal, Senior Vice President of Automotive Valuation and Analytics

Model Years: 2008-2014, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 7/22/16 to 7/29/16

No Major Surprises in Market Movement Last Week

Volume-weighted, overall car values decreased by 0.47% last week. This is similar to the average

depreciation rate of 0.46% seen in the previous four weeks.

In car segments, Mid-Size Car segment declined the most, dropping by 0.91%.

Volume-weighted, overall truck values decreased by 0.26% last week. This is slightly better than the

average change of -0.35% seen in the previous four weeks.

In truck segments, Compact Crossover/SUV segment declined the most, dropping by 0.48%.

-$23-0.36%

-$33-0.42%

-$85-0.91%

-$61-0.54%

-$37-0.22% -$65

-0.32%-$117-0.33%

-$34-0.21% -$132

-0.35%

-$54CARS

-0.47%

-1.2%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0%

+0.2%

WEE

KLY

CH

AN

GE

-$15-0.11%

-$62-0.48%

-$62-0.39%

-$3-0.01%

-$30-0.16%

-$1-0.01% -$26

-0.12%

-$30-0.10%

-$30-0.24%

$00%

-$33-0.20%

-$19-0.14% -$37

-0.20%

-$42TRUCKS-0.26%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0%

+0.2%

WEE

KLY

CH

AN

GE

2

August 1, 2016

Sentiment from the Auction Lanes

Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights:

“Dealers reporting that sales have been very slow this week on their lots

leaving very little to send to auction. Plenty of no-sales here today.” Doug

from TN

“Good sale today at this location, dealer lanes were very busy.” Gerry from

FL

“Prices are down on most everything here. Consignment was better than

last week but still low compared to normal.” Jim from WA

“The market has slowed down a little in this area but all lanes still seemed to do pretty well.” Mark from CA

“Slow retail and wholesale in this market location.” Richard from NJ

Mid-Size Cars: Three-Year Retention

Three-Year Retention (as percent of typically-equipped retail) on mid-size cars in 2016 on 2013 Model

Year is trending more than 2 percentage points lower than the retention percentage seen last year on

2012 Model Year as demand shifted from cars to SUVs.

Vehicle Highlight 2017 Toyota Camry has a Base MSRP of $23,070 not including destination charge. Trim levels include LE, SE, XLE, XSE, and Hybrid LE, SE and XLE. The hybrid trim offers 43 mpg on the highway. Close competitors include Mazda 6, Chevrolet Malibu, Honda Accord, Kia Optima, Hyundai Sonata, Ford Fusion and Nissan Altima.

This week’s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets.

3

August 1, 2016

All Roads Lead to Monterey “The automotive events held in the middle of August on California’s scenic

Monterey Peninsula have become the year’s most important gathering for high end

car collectors and enthusiasts. The vast majority of major auction houses will be

holding sales, including Mecum, Russo and Steele, Bonhams, Rick Cole, Gooding, and RM Sotheby’s

(featuring the first ever Shelby Cobra, serial number ‘CSX 2000’). In addition to the auctions, there will

be several top notch Concours, including The Quail, Concorso Italiano, and Pebble Beach. Throw in a

variety of Road Rallies and Vintage Racing at Laguna Seca, and you’ve got yourself quite a week!”

Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

Two recent Mecum auctions, held in Portland and Denver, combined to top $20,000,000 in sales. Mecum’s inaugural Portland auction saw 300 collector vehicles trade hands for just over $9,000,000, while in Denver the auctioneers were able to hammer 402 of 611 lots sold for $11,000,000, a respectable 65% sales ratio. Both recent Mecum auctions were dominated by mid-1960s to early-1970s American Muscle Cars.

Notable Sales Include:

1963 Ford Galaxie 500XL R-Code 427 $155,000 (Mecum Denver)

1963 Chevy Corvette Split Window $140,000 (Mecum Denver)

1970 Buick GSX Stage 1 Coupe $115,000 (Mecum Denver)

1967 Shelby GT500 Fastback $80,000 (Mecum Denver)

1986 Porsche 930 Turbo $80,000 (Mecum Denver)

1970 Pontiac GTO Judge Hardtop $67,000 (Mecum Denver)

1965 Shelby GT350 Fastback $305,000 (Mecum Portland)

1969 Ford Mustang Boss 429 $240,000 (Mecum Portland)

1970 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda Coupe $190,000 (Mecum Portland)

1974 De Tomaso Pantera Coupe $100,000 (Mecum Portland)

Photo Courtesy of Mecum Auctions

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Vintage European Exotic Sports Car Values

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

COLLECTIBLE CARS

4

August 1, 2016

Values at Auction Cool Down as Summer Winds Down

“The wholesale market was very consistent last month, with motorized units and

towables not only moving in the same direction, but changing very similar

amounts. Typically, as we head into the tail end of summer, consumer spending on boats and RVs starts

to taper off, as most recreational purchases have already been made for the year. Wholesale activity

naturally follows suit, as dealers in seasonal regions align their inventory with expected demand.” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C)

Average selling price was $39,423, down $2,587 (6.1%) from previous month

One year ago, the average selling price was $39,058

Auction volume was down 15% from previous month

For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels)

Average selling price was $10,797, down $555 (4.8%) from previous month

One year ago, the average selling price was $11,140

Auction volume was down 19% from previous month

30000

32000

34000

36000

38000

40000

42000

44000

46000

Jan

-12

Feb

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-15

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-16

Feb

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Motor Home Value Trends

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

Jan

-12

Feb

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Jul

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-16

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Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

RECREATIONAL VEHICLES

5

August 1, 2016

Powersports Market Begins Its Seasonal Change “Values in the Powersports market are down across the board this month.

With the end of summer upon us, many dealers have begun to draw down

their inventory of street bikes as we head into the fall. At the same time,

many are beginning to stock more ATVs and Utility Vehicles in advance of the seasonal farming and

hunting activities that drive increased sales of these vehicles once cooler weather arrives.”

Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor

Off Road bikes lead the declines this month, dropping by $92 (3.9%) on average.

The Cruisers, Scooters, and Street Bikes saw large declines as well, with drops of $235 (3.0%),

$51 (3.1%), and $215 (2.9%) respectively. Within the Cruiser segment, domestic V-Twins

performed about a percentage point better than their metric counterparts did.

ATVs and Utility Vehicles both saw their prices at auction drop as well, though they performed

better than the street bike segments. The ATVs went down $79 (2.1%), while the Utility Vehicles

performed slightly better with a drop of $153 (1.8%).

The highly seasonal segments (snowmobiles & watercraft) each dropped as well, but by negligible

amounts in the case of the sleds, as very few of these units are crossing the auction block at the

moment. The watercraft, both personal and jet boats, declined in line with expectations for the

end of summer, dropping $112 (1.7%) and $372 (1.7%).

-2.10%

-3.00%

-1.70%

-3.90%

-2.80% -3.10%

-0.60%

-2.90%

-1.80% -1.70%

-4.50%

-4.00%

-3.50%

-3.00%

-2.50%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change July to August 2016

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

POWERSPORTS

6

August 1, 2016

Vocational Segment Stays Strong!

“Other Late Model Segments Strong for Right Now As Well, With Help

from Low Mileage 2015’s.” Charles Cathey, Editor – Heavy Duty Truck Data

The volume of available used trucks continues to grow which insures good buys

at HD Auctions for most. But, with some low-mile, high-price 2015’s becoming

available in recent days, we have noticed the average values in the Over the Road and Regional Segments ramping

up dramatically. With the miles on 2011’s and 2012’s getting higher each month along with their quantities, this

upward spike will more than likely be temporary until demand hopefully catches up with the used HD supply.

DATE

Constructional/Vocational Over the Road Trucks &

Tractors Regional Tractors

MODEL YEARS Value

$ Change

% Change Value

$ Change

% Change Value

$ Change

% Change

08/01/16 87,551 -184 -0.2% 74,511 -224 -0.3% 64,432 -321 -0.5% 2014-2015

07/01/16 77,772 -397 -0.5% 63,842 -795 -1.2% 54,622 -852 -1.5% 2013-2014

2013-2014 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $184 (0.2%) in July compared to the average decline of $397 (0.5%) in June.

2013-2014 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $224 (0.3%) in July compared to the average drop of $795 (1.2%)in June.

2013-2014 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $321 (0.5%) in July compared to the average depreciation of $852 (1.5%) in June.

DATE

Constructional/Vocational Over the Road Trucks &

Tractors Regional Tractors

MODEL YEARS Value

$ Change

% Change Value

$ Change

% Change Value

$ Change

% Change

08/01/16 43,882 -236 -0.5% 35,476 -529 -1.5% 27,051 -519 -1.9% 2006-2013

07/01/16 37,697 -176 -0.5% 30,995 -314 -1.0% 22,934 -338 -1.5% 2005-2012

2005-2012 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $236 (0.5%) in July compared to the $176 (0.5%) in June.

2005-2012 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $529 (1.5%) in July compared to $314 (1.0%) average deprciation in June.

2005-2012 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $519 (1.9%) in July compared to the average drop of $338 (1.5%) in June.

-$1,600

-$1,400

-$1,200

-$1,000

-$800

-$600

-$400

-$200

$0

+$200

Mo

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Average Wholesale Value Changes (Market)

Constructional/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

HEAVY DUTY

7

August 1, 2016

Medium Duty Truck Segment continues its decline

“Medium Duty trucks are still tracking downward this past month.”

Bret Swanson, Editor – Medium Duty Truck Data

In the Medium Duty Truck wholesale market, we saw the older models decline more and the newer trucks

decline less. This past month, the 4 to 11 year old models came down on average, $266 or 1.3%. In June,

that average decline for this group was, $203 or 1.1%. The 2 to 3 year old models faired a little better this

past month. The average amount of decline was $312 or 0.7% for July, and in June, that average decline

was $359 or 0.9%.

Diesel prices continue to rise but at a slower rate. The national average price per gallon now stands at,

$2.40. That is $.03 less than last month. It is still better than the average price of $2.78 per gallon, one year

ago. Which is $.38 lower than this time last year.

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-$0.01-$0.01+$0.00

$0

+$0.00

+$0.02

-$0.38-$0.40-$0.41-$0.42

-$0.43-$0.44

-$0.50

-$0.40

-$0.30

-$0.20

-$0.10

+$0.00

+$0.10

07/18/1607/11/1607/04/1606/27/1606/20/1606/13/16

Diesel Price Changes

Price Chg/Week Price Chg/Year

SPECIALTY MARKETS:

MEDIUM DUTY

Value $ Change % Change

08/01/16 20,234 -266 -1.3% 2006-2013

07/01/16 17,927 -203 -1.1% 2005-2012

MODEL

YEARSDATE

Medium Duty

Value $ Change % Change

08/01/16 45,352 -312 -0.7% 2014-2015

07/01/16 39,681 -359 -0.9% 2013-2014

MODEL

YEARS

Medium Duty

DATE