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The Vulnerability of Small Farmers to Climate Change in the Amazon:

Adaptive Challenges of Inter-linked Environments

Eduardo S. Brondizio and Emilio F. Moran

Department of Anthropology

Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change (ACT)

Indiana University

Human adaptation to climate change

A-the processes that mediate perception of environmental change and behavioral adaptation at different levels:

.What processes affect differential adaptive responses to change at individual and population levels?

B- as a problem of functional interdependency (Young 2002) of resource use systems: the horizontal and vertical inter-linkages of economies, , ecosystems, and institutions

.How do different forms of cross-level institutional arrangements can help facilitate solutions to intricate cross-scale problems?

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Human dimensions of climate change

A-the processes that mediate perception of environmental change and behavioral adaptation at different levels

Adaptation to change and degree of vulnerability as a function of:

.Cultural context (repertoire of responses, knowledge environmental signals)

.Social context (social networks, supporting services, infrastructure)

.Environmental context (spatial landscape pattern, vegetation,..)

B- as a problem of functional interdependency of resource use systems and institutions:

Adaptation to change and degree of vulnerability as a function of:

.Different forms of cross-level and institutional arrangements facilitating co-production, mediation, translation, and negotiation of information and knowledge within and across levels

From Moran 1979/2000

Environmental perception and adaptive responses to changeEnvironmental inputs/signals recognized in cultural context (experience, knowledge, lexicon, behavioral scripts)

Is it comparable to previous experiences?

Repeated on previous behavior useful in the past as a response to similar stimuli

Or

Different experience triggering complex assessment:

Can we compare this to our previous experience?

Are new “scripts” and routines worth the cost and the risk?

What are the pay-offs?

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Local populations and Inter-generational history

Cemetery, floodplains Western Marajo island, 1995

Brondizio, E. S. and W. A. Neves 1997: Ethnoecologia Cabocla. In C. Pavan ed. Uma estrategiaLatino Americana para a Amazonia. S.P. Unesp

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B-Functional interdependency of resource use systems, ecosystems, and institutionsForms of governance working at one level limited to deal with impacts at other levels

Brondizio, E. S., E. Ostrom, O. Young. Social Capital and Ecosystem Services: Institutions and Governance at multiple levels. In Anantha Duraiappah and Siddiq Osmani (eds.) Beyond the Wealth of Nations. United Nations Environmental Programme. (under review)

Deforestation (red) by 1994 Deforestation (red) by 2005

Source: Instituto Socioambiental (www.socioambiental.org), Dec 19, 2006Info site: http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/pgn/index_htmlDeforestation: http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/pgn/indique.html#

http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/slideshow_mapa.html

Xingu Indigenous Park, Xingu River Watershed, and Deforestation Mato Grosso, Brazil [ISA: www.socioambiental.org]

Global Forecasting: Decadal, inter-annual, seasonal circulation patterns

Monitoring and regional information dissemination

Media / information dissemination

State agricultural extension

Environmental signals (e.g., delayed rainfall)

Community and interest group information dissemination

Local methods of data collection

Knowledge of environmental signals

Oral transmission and Linguistic cues and lexicon

Frequency and magnitude of large scale ecosystem change experienced regionally

Degree of landscape connectivity and support service

Social networks and rural-urban connections

Regional composition of human and physical capital

Settlement pattern and Community organization

Asset value and Invested landesquecapital

Consumption – market balance of the household

Age and belief system

Stage of farm lot

Factors Affecting Perception and Responses to environmental change

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Vulnerability and adaptive responses

Approached from an Well being (based on Sen 1981, 1999)

-Ability to respond to change, stochastic events while maintaining basic capabilities and enabling conditions

Sen’s basic capabilities approach and enabling conditions1-Security2-Health3-Material wealth and livelihood4-Social relations5-Freedon of choice

Riverine Caboclo ‘Long-term’ residents 2nd. Generat. colonists 1st. Generat. colonists

Diversity of small farmers in the Amazon

diverse and dynamic, varying in time in the region,

knowledge of the environment, cultural ties and density of social networks

strongly shaped by cycles of migratory flows

lack of servicesglobal commodity markets

large scale infrastructural changes

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Riverine Caboclo ‘Long-term’ residents 2nd. Generat. colonists 1st. Generat. colonists

Extended drought and rainfall.planting time and risk of ‘seasonal trap’

.loss of crops and productivity.transportation and access to market

.flammability.water quantity and quality

.infectious and non-infectious diseases

Variation in low and high flood level.residency pattern.fishing grounds

.planting grounds.transportation and access to market

.infectious diseases

Accidental fire.risk invested capital

.neighbor conflict.non-infectious diseases

.Food security

.Economic independence

Credit debt

.Homelessness

.Health risks

.Social violence

Variability and Vulnerability of small farmers to climate change

Time in the regionCultural knowledge and cognitive ‘scripts’

Land use experience Social memory of events

Social networks and forms of collective actionDiversity of economic portfolio

Turn over of familiesCommunity breakdown

Environmental/ technological dependency

Propensity to innovateLandscape patchiness

Extension servicesLocation and access

.Food security

.Economic independence

Credit debit

.Homelessness

.Health risk

.Social violence

Riverine caboclo ‘Long-term’ residents 2nd. Generation colonists 1st. Generation colonists

Factors affecting adaptive responses to to climate change

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Curua Una - Region 1

Mujui dos Campos - Region 2

Moju-Jabuti - Region 3

Cuiaba-Santarem - Region4

Sampling

Historical occupation Land

tenure

Access and location

Regional sites

Regional

Intra regional

Communities

Farm level

Individual

Time of arrival in the regionSample from two colonization settlements

050

100150200250300

Antes de 1970 Anos 70 Anos 80 Depois de1990

# Fa

mili

es

(McCracken et al 1999, 2002, Moran et al 2002, Brondizio et al 2002)

Sample 904 families

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community

• Global processes, local dynamics: Formation and transformation of rural communities

Brondizio, Siqueira, Dantona 2006. AAA Annual meeting.

1800~1910Colonial occupation and Rubber economy

Formally recognized communities

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1930-1970Early logging corridors and Northeastern migrationsJute Cycle

1972-1979TransAmazon highway and BR-163Colonization settlementsNational Forest

10

1979-1986Expanding agrarian reform settlements and agropastoral expansion

1986-1991Expanding agrarian reform settlements and agropastoral expansion

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1991-2001Industrial agriculture expansion

2003Number of Families

Rural Population (including floodplains)~180,000 to 200,000

Brondizio, Dantona, Siqueira 2006

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Pillars of community formation

• Formal religion recognition• Soccer team, soccer place of union• Formal schooling• Associative space

ENSO 1997/98

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Índice de Chuvas em Santarém (Anos de 1980-2000)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Ano

Prec

ipita

cao

(mm

)

Rainfall (1980-2000) and most remembered Droughts and ENSO YearsSantarem 2001, n = 442

Percentage of responses

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Before 1974 1974 – 1978 1979 – 1983 1984 – 1987 1988 – 1993 1994 – 1998

Groups of Arrival on Property

%

Does not Remember an ENSO Year

Does not Remember

1997-98

1991-93

1986-87

1982-83

1977-78

1972-73

ENSO year

Moran et al 2006)

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Altamira Source of Weather Information

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

nothing

don't know

tv

radio

new spaper

neighbors

union

church

ag agency

extension

nr agency

ngos

animal behavior

salt

other

% of Total Responses

Santarem Source of Weather Information

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

nothing

don't know

tv

radio

new spaper

neighbors

union

church

ag agency

extension

nr agency

ngos

animal behavior

salt

other

% of Total Responses

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Perception of DroughtSource of information about more recent

drought (Enso 1997/98)

0 20 40 60 80 100

MediaCommunity groups

Government agenciesNGOsOthers

Personal experience

% Altamira farmers (n=252)

Perception of DroughtSource of information about more recent

drought (Enso 1997/98)

0 20 40 60 80

MediaCommunity groups

Government agenciesNGOsOthers

Personal experience

% Santarem farmers (n=442)

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Effect of Driest Year in Altamira

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%

Dry Pasture

Delay Planting

Diminish Harvest

Increase Fire Susceptible Area

Fire Enter Neighbor's Property

Fire Enter Your Area

Breathing Problems

Traff ic Accidents

Affect Perennial

Affect Cattle

Economic Losses

Other

% of Total Responses

Effect of Driest Year in Santarem

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%

Dry Pasture

Delay Planting

Diminish Harvest

Increase Fire Susceptible Area

Fire Enter Neighbor's Property

Fire Enter Your Area

Breathing Problems

Traff ic Accidents

Affect Perennial

Affect Cattle

Economic Losses

Other

% of Total Responses

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Accidental Fires in Altamira and Santarem

0

10

20

30

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year

Rat

e (%

of A

ccid

enta

l Fire

s)

Altamira n=171 farmersSantarem n=271 farmers

Altamira Santarem

Coping with drought (1997/98 ENSO)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

doesn't apply/ wouldn't changemonetary/food reserve forchange cropping strategy

water reserve/build pond orfirebreak

burn laterfarm elsewhere/move away

not burn/ not deforestsell cattle

use greater care in burningtells neighbors/hunters

use of water

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Technology and equipments for Agropastoral activities2000-2001

0%20%40%60%80%100%Hand tools (axe, hoe, etc)Manual planterAnimal medicationMineral saltOrganic fertilizerChain SawPesticidesGeneratorAnimal transportationChemical fertilizerTractorPlow erWagonDouble-plow erFungicidesHerbicidesAnimal traction/soil

(ACT sample 2000-2003)

Adaptive challenges

Family turn over and community transformation

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Breakdown of communities and social groups: Land Aggregation and Fragmentation at a regional level

Fragmentation and community formation

Land Aggregation andCommunity disappearance

Brondizio, Dantona, Siqueira 2006. AAA

Lot turnover since the beginning of settlement

76.323.7Altamira

74.225.8Santarém

65.134.9Porto Acre

More than one ownerContinuousa

Lot occupation (%)Study site

aFarm families who remain on the lots originally assigned by INCRA.

Ludwig, Dantona, Brondizio. (under review World Development)

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Land distribution dynamics across three study sites

0.53340.4214.40.1444.398.1Altamira

0.79402.61370.5367.237.1Santarem

0.3991.693.80.1215.363.5Porto Acre

GiniSt devAverage area per

owner (ha)GiniSt. dev.Average area per

owner (ha)Sites

Survey (2003/2005)Original INCRA settlement

Stage 1: Household Isolation, economic pressure, and social intimidation

(Brondizio, Siqueira, Dantona 2006)

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Stage 2: Demographic decline, social network break down, discontinuity of services, economic isolation

Reaction to change

• Organization around important resources: water and land

• Cooperation around production systems• Multiple levels of political organization

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Small Farmers:Strengthening community identity and Resistance Movements

Alliances with the church and environmental movements

Inter-community organization of Small farmers

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Inter-community associations

Confederation of Community Associations

Community associations

National Forest creation 1974Residents expelled

Logging concessions (ITTO)Community and inter-community Associations

Demarcation of community areas NGO Saude & Alegria

“Traditional” Communities: Phases of conflict and expulsion, organization and assertion of rights, and co-management

National Forest of Tapajos; 25 communities, three municipalities

SNUC and Traditional Population legislationConfederation of resident communities

Pressure to participate on managementReclaiming ethnic identity and land rights

1974 1985 1988 1995 2002

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Individual invest/ Search alternative water supplies

Implications• Memory and oral history

• Landscape connectivity and collective action

• Information and knowledge conflict

• Level of social and human capital

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Memory, uncertainty, and risk

Fragmented memory of past events

Variation with experiences of recovery

Uncertainty of information and future events

Preference for risk [while economics treats people as risk averse, in most cases most individuals tend to be skeptical about low probability and high cost events, uncertainty]

The need to translate concepts of irreversibility; possible close to the initial concept of “tipping points,” thresholds. To what extend drought and accidental fire can be neutralized by good weather later?

Landscape connectivity and collective action

Landscape connectivity and effects of land use system

.Edge and contract between land use systems.Access to transportation routes

.Size of clearing.Micro-topography and susceptibility to flooding

.Soil structure and humidity retention.Micro-climate

.Vegetation phenology.Crop diversity

.Crop resistance to drought

Accidental fire

Requirements for Collective Action

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. Credibility and legitimacy of knowledge and information systems (both way problem)

. Relevance of information to scale of decision making

.Trust and confounding presentation of problems by the media

Technical and Scientific

Local and Experiential

Divergences of Scales (adapted from Cash et al 2006)

-Ignorance: failure to recognize different systems of knowledge

-Mismatch: units of information, physical environment, behavioral environment

-Plurality: diversity of stakeholders and communities

Building trust over Information and knowledge

Some Challenges for Vertical and Horizontal Inter-linkagesVertical inter-linkages

Large scale unplanned ecosystem change[random connectivity]

Emphasis on physical capital

Inconsistency and ephemeral incentives

Trust (lack of) on government agents

Credibility and legitimacy of information

Mismatch of information scale

Unequal distribution of incentives

Horizontal inter-linkages

High level of lot turn over

Constant population movement

Diversity of communities

Different levels of knowledge and experience

Technological dependency

Limited access to incentives

-Decay of extension services since 1990 (“morto vivo”)

-The municipal paradox: decentralized services, minimum tax base

-Missed opportunities of “bolsa familia” (welfare program)

-Unbalanced social capital: associations vs. corruption cartels

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The Paradox of Youth demographics: Possibilities vs an undermined future

IDH - Educacao, 2000

Educacao, Marajo Meso region, 1991-2000 (PNUD 2000)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Afuá (PA)Anajás (PA)Breves (PA)

Cachoeira do Arari (PA)Chaves (PA)

Curralinho (PA)Macapá (AP)Muaná (PA)

Ponta de Pedras (PA)Salvaterra (PA)

Santa Cruz do Arari (PA)Santana (AP)

Soure (PA)São Sebastião da Boa

% 15 anos ou mais com menos de quatro anos de estudo, 2000% 15 anos ou mais com menos de quatro anos de estudo, 1991

Inequality measures and concentration of wealth (1991-2000) for Estuarine municipalities, PNUD, 2003

Concentration of Wealth Estuarine municipalities1991-2000

-10-505

10152025

Estuarine municipalities

Perc

enta

ge

% Difference (1991-2000) of the wealth held by 20% poorest (1991-2001) % Difference (1991-2000) of the wealth held by 20% wealthies (1991-2001)

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1991 2000

20% poorest 3.5 1.640% poorest 10.4 7.460% poorest 21.4 17.780% poorest 39.4 34.920% richest 60.6 65.1

Percentage of Regional Wealth appropriated by different income groupsSantarem-Belterra-Placas region 1991 e 2000

Human Development Atlas, Brazil. PNUD 2003

a. Individuals live and operate in a world of institutions: close link between instrumental freedoms and institutions.

b. Recognize complexity, learn how to deal with complexity: move beyond scales and analysis that are historically decontextualized

c. Rising connectivity as a double edged sword: disturbance spread fast throughout the system, but can also accelerate learning process, as people dealing with problems in one area have the opportunity to learn and exchange experiences with others;

c. Key issue: level of randomness versus a process characterized by co-evolution and mutual adjustment over time; Random connectivity is more likely to give rise to tipping points that trigger system shift and undesirable spread of impact (Gunderson and Holling 2002)

Inter-linked Challenges of adaptation

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What are we looking for?

In what terms “development” is framed?

• Sen’s Theory of Justice

• Transcendental: identifying just social arrangements

– Critical “distance” versus parochialism

• Comparative/Relational: ranking alternative social arrangements

(A. Sen 2006. Theory of Justice. Journal of Philosophy)

Thanks!