Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

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GECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios GECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios Workshop Workshop 18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UK 18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UK G. Fischer, M.M. Shah, H.T. van Velthuizen International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

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GECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios Workshop 18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UK G. Fischer, M.M. Shah, H.T. van Velthuizen International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

Page 1: Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

GECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios WorkshopGECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios Workshop18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UK18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UK

G. Fischer, M.M. Shah, H.T. van VelthuizenInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Page 2: Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

GECAFSScenarios : Spatial, Temporal

Food ProvisionProduction & Trade = Consumption

Driving Force and VulnerabilitySocial, Economic, Environmental

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

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Food System Scenarios

FAO : Towards 2030

IFPRI 2020

IIASA : Towards 2080(ecologically spatial, global environmental change …)

Page 4: Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

Food ProvisionVulnerability & Sustainability

Social VulnerabilityPopulation, Hunger, Poverty, Health, Education…..

Economic VulnerabilityAgriculture Economy, Trade and Aid, Employment & Livelihoods,…..

Environmental VulnerabilityLand, Water, Biodiversity, Pollution……

Page 5: Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

Historical Population Density, 1700 – 1990

History Database of the Global Environment

Reference: K.Goldeweijk and J.J. Battjes

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Reference: Ramankutty, N. and J. Foley, 1998, 1999.

Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment

Historical Cropland Dataset (1700-1992)Fraction of grid cell in croplands

Page 7: Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

Population Growth2000-2080

Source: Lutz et al., 2001

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Share of Agriculture in Total Population (%)

Source: FAO AGROSTAT, 2000

Source: FAO AGROSTAT, 2000

Share of Agriculture in Total Population

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

OECD EEUR LAM SAFR MEA SEAS CASI

GDP Index

% of Population in Agriculture

Population

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Poverty

Per Capita GDP Index

Source: Human Development Report, 2001

GDP Index = (log(GDP/CAP)-log(100))/(log(40000)-log(100))

15

30

45

60

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

OECD EEUR LAM SAFR MEA SEAS CASI

GDP Index

GINI Coefficient

Income Distribution vs. Per Capita GDP

Source: Human Development Report 2001

Change in number of people living below $1 per day, 1987-98

-150.4

-60.4

16.5

-3

-3.3

47.4

84.4

-200 -100 0 100

chan

ge

in n

um

ber

s li

vin

g i

n e

xtre

me

po

vert

y

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and NorthAfrica

Latin America and theCaribbean

Eastern Europe andCentral Asia

South Asia

East Asia and Pacific(excluding China)

East Asia and Pacific

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0

20

40

60

80

80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Index of Food Supply / Food Required

% u

nd

ern

ou

rish

ed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1969-71 1979-81 1990-92 1997-99

mill

ion

peo

ple

Latin America &Carribean

South Asia

East Asia

Near East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

The State of Food

Insecurity

(Source: FAO, 2001)

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Millennium Goals

Goals for 2015

50% Reduction in hunger (cf 1974, 1996, 2002)

67% Reduction in child mortality

50% Reduction in poverty

50% Increase in access to potable water

Universal primary education

Eliminate gender disparity

75% Reduction in maternal mortality

Reverse spread of HIV/Aids

WB Cost Estimate: $40 to $60 billion a year

FAO Hunger Estimate: $ 24 Billion a year

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Land UseLand Use is at the core ofEconomy–Society–EnvironmentEconomy–Society–Environment relationships

LANDUSE

SYSTEMS

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Agro-ecological Zones Methodology

Page 14: Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

Global Agro-ecological Zones

Environmental resources database

including climate, soil, terrain, and land cover

comprising 2.2 million grid cells,

assessing the agricultural potential

Food crops, Bio-energy crops, Livestock Systems

Fish : Inland and marine ?

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BLS Model System18 National Models, 2 Regional Models, 14 other Regional Models

Commodities : wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine and ovine meat,dairy products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture,non-agriculture.

Linkage : trade, world market prices and financial flows

National and Regional ModelsArgentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, China, India, USA

European Union, Eastern Europe and former USSR

AFRICA (Oil exporters, medium and low income : exporters and importers)

LATIN AMERICA (high-income : exporters and importers, medium income)

SOUTHEAST ASIA (high-medium income exporters and importers)

SOUTH ASIA (low income)

SOUTHWEST ASIA (oil exporters, medium-low income)

Rest of the world

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Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Food and Agriculture Systems

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COUNTRY A

WORLD MARKETS

International prices to satisfy: • commodity balances • financial transfer balance

COUNTRY B

COUNTRY ECOUNTRY DCOUNTRY C

EXCHANGE EQUILIBRIUM

Prices, consumption, stocks, net exports to satisfy:

• Budget constraint • Market clearance • Trade balance • Trade quota

GOVERNMENT POLICIESTarget price, tariffs, taxes, quota, etc.

PRODUCTION

Non-agricultureproduction

Agricultureproduction

Production inputs:

• Land • Fertilizer • Labour • Others • Capital

International commodity prices PW Net trade EA

PW

PWPWPW

EC ED EE

EB

The International Linkage in the World Food System Model

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CLIMATECHANGE

FORESTLOSS /

DEGRADATION

BIODIVERSITYLOSS

LANDDEGRADATION

FOODPRODUCTION

Food Production andGlobal Environmental Change

FRAG-MEN-TATION

GENETICDIVERSITY

PESTI-CIDES

SOILFERTILITY

EROSION,SALINIZATION

CONVERSION

HYDRO-LOGY

FERTILIZER

AGRO-ECOLOGY

CARBON

FIRES, PESTS

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Climate ChangeTemperature rise

Precipitation changeSea-level rise

Variability & extreme events

Emissions andconcentrations

Greenhouse gasesAerosols

Human andnatural systems

Land and water resourcesEcosystems and biodiversity

Human settlements & infrastructureHuman health

Socio-economicDevelopment path

Demographic changeEconomic growth

TechnologyPolicy & Institutions

Adaptation,Vulnerability

Imp

acts

Mit

igat

ion

Climate Change and DevelopmentClimate Change and Development

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Source: IPCC, 2001.

IPCC SRES Scenarios

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0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

GD

P $

/cap

A1-MDC

A1-LDC

A2-MDC

A2-LDC

B2-MDC

B2-LDC

B1-MDC

B1-LDC

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

mil

lio

ns

AML

ASIA

REF

OECD

B2

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

mil

lio

ns

AML

ASIA

REF

OECD

A2

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

mil

lio

ns

AML

ASIA

REF

OECD

A1, B1

IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100

Population, Scenario B2

Population, Scenario A1, B1

Population, Scenario A2

GDP per caput

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CLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIABILITY

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DroughtsFrequency of Droughts : 115 Affected Population : 163 millionEthiopia, Mozambique, Somalia : 43% Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia : 62%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

all 14 countries Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia,

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

all countries Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia,

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19611965

19691973

19771981

19851989

19931997

All countries Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

All countries Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia

Floods Frequency of Floods : 127 Affected Population : 17 million Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia : 27% Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia : 50%

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IIASA ScenariosSpatial : National and Regional

Temporal : Annual to 2080

EnvironmentalLand and Water resources – Agro-ecological zones

Climate Change – GCMs/IPCC 3GGI - Mitigation and Adaptation

Economy and TradeNational/regional and international

SocialPopulation and demography, Hunger and Poverty, Health…