The Velocity of Climate Change: 2011 Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology...
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The Velocity of Climate Change: 2011 Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology www.global-ecology.org
Transcript of The Velocity of Climate Change: 2011 Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology...
The Velocity of Climate Change: 2011
Chris Field
Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecologywww.global-ecology.org
Toles, time machine
Article 2 of the UNFCCC
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Article 2 of the UNFCCC
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Article 2 of the UNFCCC
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Three Messages
• Need for risk-based framing• Need to tackle the hard stuff
– Agriculture: Human factors– Ecosystems: Mortality
• The role of velocity
Risk = probability x consequence
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The velocity of climate change
• How fast is the climate changing?• How fast ecosystems and agriculture
respond?• How fast can people and societies respond
– adaptation?• How fast can people and societies respond
– mitigation?
Loarie et al. Nature 2009
The velocity of climate change
(°/yr)/(°/km) = (km/yr)
Loarie et al. Nature 2009
Parmesan and Yohe. Nature 2003Average shift 0.61 km yr-1
Chen et al. Science 2011Average Shift 1.69 km yr-1
Loarie et al. Nature 2009
Angel Watkins, US Forest Service, 2007
Euphydryas editha bayensis Centaurea solstitialis
Challenges
• Forestry– Mortality
• Agriculture– Yield gaps– Thresholds
Rapid, widespread forest die-off
Allen et al. 2010
Lobell et al. ARER 2009
Lobell et al. ARER 2009
Lobell et al. ARER 2009
US crop yields: Threshold behavior
Schlenker and Roberts PNAS 2009
Corn
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Temperature (°F)
Temperature (°C)
Lobell et al. Nature Climate Change 2011
Lobell et al. Nature Climate Change 2011
• The role of velocity?– Which ecosystem outcomes– Which farmer decisions
• Integrating risk
