THE USE OF CADASTRAL DATA TO ESTIMATE SUB-COUNTY POPULATIONS Jim Sylvester Bureau of Business and...
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Transcript of THE USE OF CADASTRAL DATA TO ESTIMATE SUB-COUNTY POPULATIONS Jim Sylvester Bureau of Business and...
THE USE OF CADASTRAL DATA TO ESTIMATE SUB-COUNTY POPULATIONS
Jim SylvesterBureau of Business and Economic Research
The University of Montana-Missoula
The ProblemMany sub-county places are outside incorporated areas
– Census Designated Places (CDP)– School districts– Indian Reservations– Planning districts
How can one estimate population of sub-county areas without building permit data?
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Definitions
• CAMA (Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal) data sets contain standardized set of characteristics including age and type of structure so that comparisons of property assessments can be made.
• A cadastral map shows political and surveyed boundaries as well as ownership of land parcels.
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
CAMA Housing Units vs. Building Permits
Okaloosa, FL
Osceola, FL
Marion, FL
Sumter, FL
Lewis & Clark, MT
Missoula, MT
Flathead, MT
Spokane, WA
Gallatin, MT
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
POP t HUt PPH t OCC_RATE t= * * GQ t+
Housing Unit Method Equation
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Uncontrolled Household Population
Place 1 PPHHousing Units
OccupancyRate* * = Household Population
Place 1
Place 2 PPHHousing Units
OccupancyRate* * = Household Population
Place 2
Place 3 PPHHousing Units
OccupancyRate* * = Household Population
Place 3
Place 4 PPHHousing Units
OccupancyRate* * = Household Population
Place 4
Uncontrolled CountyHousehold Population
+
+
+
=
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
WEIGHT Control Household Population
Uncontrolled Household Population
= /
Controlling to Official Estimate
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Place 1
Place 2
Place 3
Place 4
Controlled CountyPopulation
+
+
+
=
* =Uncontrolled
Household PopulationPlace 1
WEIGHT Controlled PopulationPlace 1
* =Uncontrolled
Household PopulationPlace 2
WEIGHT Controlled PopulationPlace 2
* =Uncontrolled
Household PopulationPlace 4
WEIGHT Controlled PopulationPlace 4
* =Uncontrolled
Household PopulationPlace 3
WEIGHT Controlled PopulationPlace 3
GQPlace 1+
+
+
+
GQPlace 2
GQPlace 3
GQPlace 3
Controlled Population
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Data Needs• Block level Census data– Total population– Household population– Housing units– Occupied housing units
• Map files– Census blocks with linked population and housing data– Outline files of subcounty areas– CAMA housing units by year built
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
The Process• Isolate housing units from other property uses• Add boundaries of sub-county geography from
Census year• Estimate new construction each year using GIS
procedures• Determine persons per housing unit for detailed
areas from latest Census• Calculate estimated household population for
each area using HU*VR*PPH
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
2000 Tabulation Blocks for Subcounty Area
Residential Parcels for Subcounty Area
Reasons for Large Errors
• Small numbers• Quality of the housing unit count• Changing PPH and occupancy rates• Boundary files and parcel data problems• Increases or decreases in group quarter
populations• Areas outside property tax jurisdictions
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Osceola County, Florida
Kissimmee city (59,682)
Alternate balance of county (166,393)
Celebration CDP (7,427)
Census balance of county (173,820)
St. Cloud city (35,183)
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Okaloosa County, Florida
Cinco Bayou town (383)
Crestview city (20,978)
Alternate balance of county (83,062)
Wright CDP (21,697)
Census balance of county (104,759)
Valparaiso city (5036)
Shalimar town (717)
Niceville city (12,749)
Mary Esther city 3,851)
Laurel Hill city (537)
Fort Walton Beach city (19,507)
Destin city (12,305)
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Marion-Sumter Counties, Florida
Belleview city (4,492)
Dunnellon city (1,733)
Alternate balance of county (288,085)
The Villages CDP (51,442)
Lake Panasoffkee CDP (3,551)
Silver Springs Shores CDP (6,539)
Census balance of county(349,617)
Wildwood city (6,709)
Webster city (785)
Coleman city (703)
Center Hill city (988)
Bushnell city (2,418)
Reddick town (506)
Ocala city (56,315)
McIntosh town (452)
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Lewis & Clark County, Montana
Helena city (28,190)
East Helena town (1,984)
Alternate balance of county (7,675)
Census balance of county (33,221)
Helena Valley Northwest CDP (3,482)
Augusta CDP (309)
Helena Valley Northeast CDP (2,995)
Lincoln CDP (1,013)
Helena Valley Southeast CDP (8,227)
Helena Valley Westside CDP (1,637)
Helena Valley West Central CDP (7,883)
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Missoula County, MontanaMissoula city (65,770)
Alternate balance of county (30,517)
Census balance of county (43,904)
Condon CDP (353)
Frenchtown CDP (1,358)
Lolo CDP (4,188)
Seeley Lake CDP (1,815)
Orchard Homes CDP (5,673)
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Columbia Falls city (4,596)
Alternate balance of county (38,774)
Census balance of county (59,546)
Kila CDP (392)
Whitefish city (6,264
Kalispell city (19,530)
Batavia CDP (385)
Bigfork CDP (4,199)
Coram CDP (4,596)
Evergreen CDP (7,600)
Helena Flats CDP (1,043)
Hungry Horse CDP (826)
West Glacier CDP (227)
Somers CDP (1,092)
Martin City CDP (500)Marion CDP (886)
Little Bitterroot Lake CDP (194)
Lakeside CDP (2,492)
Flathead County, Montana
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Gallatin County, MontanaBelgrade city (7,378)
Alternate balance of county (38,774)
Census balance of county (39.997)
Amsterdam/Churchill CDP (1,046)
West Yellowstone town (1,271)
Three Forks city (1,862)
Manhattan town (1,495)
Bozeman city (34,250)
Willow Creek CDP (210)
Ponderosa Pines CDP (336)
Logan CDP (99)
King Arthur Park CDP (7389)
Gallatin Gateway CDP (856)
Four Corners CDP (3,146)
Big Sky CDP (1,876)
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Spokane County, WashingtonAirway Heights city (6,114)
Alternate balance of county (88,764)
Census balance of county (136,108)
Millwood city (1,786) Medical Lake city (5,060) Liberty Lake city (7,591)
Deer Park city (3,652)Cheney city (10,590)
Green Bluff CDP (761) Four Lakes CDP (512)
Fairwood CDP (19,102)
Country Homes CDP (5,841)
Spokane city (208,916) Spangle city (278)
Rockford town (470)
Fairfield town (612) Latah town (183)
Spokane Valley city (89,755) Waverly town (106)
Town and Country CDP (4,857) Otis Orchards-East Farms CDP (6,220)
Mead CDP (7,275)
Fairchild AFB CDP (2,776)
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Conclusion
• Advantage– Political boundaries are not a hindrance..
• Disadvantage– Quality CAMA/GIS data is not available for many
areas
If good building permit data is unavailable, use of alternate estimates of housing units may be warranted.Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Spokane WA May 16, 2013
Bureau of Business and Economic ResearchThe University of Montana-Missoula
Missoula MT 59812243-5113
243-2086 (FAX)[email protected]
Jim Sylvester