The US Economic Hegemon

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    Sean Balkissoon

    is on stable ground,even as we see the rise and growth of the BRICs.

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    Past challengers laid to waste :

    Soviet Union

    Japan

    European Union

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    US economic hegemony consolidated by:

    US Dollar Role as world reserve currency

    Dominance of US Markets and Institutions in GlobalFinance

    US economy role and significance in global trade

    Political Stability confidence

    US Energy Security supported by

    Military Superiority and determination to protectits economic interests

    Globalization Americanization

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    Previously Britian Sterling backed by GoldStandard eventually collapsed

    Post WWII US dollars, backed by gold reservewas new world reserve currency

    1971 Gold backing abandoned This gave UShegemon enormous economic powers

    Effectively now debt, rather than credit hadbecome the new monetary power.

    60% global currency reserves is USD, Euro is25%. No alternative to US dollar for Globalcurrency on horizon, even though China haveproposed this since 2009. In uncertain times

    people seek confidence in USD.

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    Highly developed & sophisticated, range of

    financial products & services

    40% of global capitalization, presents unlimited

    opportunities for investors. China is only 5%.

    Markets are liquid, and liberalized allowing free

    flow of mobile global wealth .

    By contrast China markets underdeveloped and not

    transparent less attractive to investors.

    Significance of US Financial markets underscored

    by the global contagion of the 2008 US Sub-Prime

    financial crisis.

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    US economy is the engine for global economy

    - American consumerism.

    US consumer economy vital to export driven

    emerging economies, like China.

    Low domestic demand of China - cannot

    surpass central importance of US to global

    economy.

    The world and China needs a strong US withstrong demand.

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    Political Stability & Liberty Confidence in USDemocracy (> 200yrs), and civil liberty attracts

    people and wealth to US.

    By contrast BRIC Communist China, the resthave either new or tenuous democracy

    Rapid development poses socio-political

    challenges. China has bound to undergo arevolution, it remains to be seen what shape it

    will take.

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    US Growth and Dominance in the world

    economy has been fueled by aninsatiable appetite for energy

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    US understands this better than any other nation

    Threat is reliance on foreign oil

    Risk factors:

    Peak Oil

    Political Instability Nationalization

    Terrorist attacks

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    US foreign policy seeks to minimize energy

    security threat.

    Policy deterrents Carter Doctrine et al

    Military defense of economic interests

    Key Gulf Allies Saudi, Kuwait

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    Boost domestic oil production Gulf of Mexico

    Develop Shale Oil production currently at 1 millbpd, 20% of total output.

    Improve transportation energy efficiency majorconsumer of oil ~70%

    Increased use of natural gas and coal as analternative to petroleum

    Develop Shale Gas production

    Nuclear power

    Bio-Fuels Grain Ethanol and Bio-Diesel

    Hydro-Electric, Wind, Solar, Geo-thermal

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    US Military Superiority continue to be a stabilizing

    force for world security for vulnerable resource rich

    nations

    Defense of US economic interests to enforce

    US hegemony

    Industry of war and rebuild efforts will fuel

    economic activity for American corporations.

    BRIC nations as a powerful economic power,

    yet militarily inferior will conform to a US led

    world order.

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    US consumer expansion limited - market

    near saturated.

    Rise of large powerful middle class in BRIC -

    presents a new market.

    More affluent consumers demand more

    consumer goods - based on American tastes

    and brands.

    Consumer markets in BRIC open up for

    American products.

    US innovation & technology protected by

    adoption of intellectual property rights law

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    The US is on stable ground:

    The current status quo is in the best interest

    of everyone.

    BRICs need strong US with strong demand fortheir continued growth.

    The US needs the rise of the BRICs and the

    emergence of a large powerful middle class,

    which will be a new market for American

    consumer brands, among westernized

    domestic youth.