The Tsupitero Newsletter 05-29-2013

The Tsupitero Newsletter is a daily Technical Analysis report by Miko S. Sayo. The report is divided into three parts:

1. A daily Technical Analysis report of the PSEi;

2. A comprehensive Technical Analysis report of the most active and volatile stock during the day; and,

3. Recommended stocks for tsupita (short-term) trades, and, notes for Tsupiteros, which includes the following: the top 10 stocks that foreign funds are buying and selling; the top 10 most active stocks; the top 10 most volatile stocks; and, the top 10 gainers and losers for the day. These statistics would exclude stocks that are illiquid.

The comprehensive Technical Analysis report of the most volatile and most active stock during the day is divided between a Technical Analysis for Tsupiteros (short-term traders) and a Technical Analysis for Position Traders. Each of these Technical Analyses will include such data as its daily chart, support, resistance, trend, average true range, relative strength vs. the Phisix, a discussion of the technical character of the stock and a recommendation. Included also in the analysis of each of these stocks are other practical information such as the top three buying and selling brokers for the past five days, the amount that these brokers bought and sold for the past five days, the net foreign buying and/or selling for the past five days and the news or rumor currently affecting the movement of the stock in the short-term.

With regards to the "Recommended stocks for Tsupita" section of the newsletter, I usually choose around 3 stocks that are actually my best bets for a short-term trade or for a Tsupita. With each stock recommendation, there is a short technical description of the stock as well as my suggested trigger for buying the stock.

The cost of a one-month subscription to the Tsupitero newsletter is P1,000.00. To subscribe to the Tsupitero newsletter, please email Miko at [email protected]. One may pay by simply making an over-the-counter deposit to the following bank account:

BPI Savings Account No. 3149-0491-25

Account Name – Michael S. Sayo

The Tsupitero newsletter will be emailed everyday on or before 9:00 in the evening.

The PSEi (May 29, 2013) Open – 7,113.49 High – 7,228.57 Low – 7,113.49 Close – 7,228.57 Value – P9,214,253,038

Advances – 114 Declines – 49 Unchanged – 40 Foreign Buying – P4,738,472,994

Foreign Selling – P5,968,361,323

Rallying Off the 7000 Level but…

Charts is courtesy of Metastock

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: Medium-term/Position Traders:

Support – 7000 Support – 6850

Resistance – 7270 Resistance – 7400

Trend – Sideways Trend – Up

ATR – 110pts. ATR – 180pts.

Recommendation – Trade the range Recommendation – Take profits on strength

The PSEi rallied today on the back of a strong move on Wall Street last night. The market ended up 115 points and with a long white candle. So, does this mean that the correction is over and the party has now resumed? Maybe, however, I believe the market was “damaged” in the last few days and will probably need some consolidation first before it resumes its uptrend, if ever. Notice that, despite the strong rally today, foreign funds were still net sellers by more than P1.2 billion. Even if I took out all the block transactions, they were still net sellers by P950 million. Take note, our market will not be able to trend up if these foreign funds continue to be net sellers. The locals funds simply cannot do it alone. The chart above shows that prices are now approaching a minor resistance at the 7270 level. If prices fail to break above this resistance line, there is a possibility that the market will retest the lows near 7000. To be bullish again, prices must take out 7270 and, at least, retest the previous highs at 7400. That way, even if it drops back down, there will be plenty of buyers waiting to buyback. Tsupiteros, who bought either yesterday or early today, are recommended to take profits if prices fail to break above 7270. Mental stops are suggested to be placed below today’s low at 7113. Position-traders, on the other hand, are still recommended to start taking profits on strength. For those who opt to just hold, I would suggest to place mental stops on the break below the 6850 level.

Tsupitero Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Lepanto Consolidated Mining Company (LC) Open – 0.67 High – 0.80 Low – 0.67 Close – 0.78 Value – P134,006,560

Strong Rally Continues but Now Approaching Overbought Conditions

After trending down strongly and reaching extremely oversold conditions, news of the proposed mining law has trigged a strong rally in LC since yesterday. Yesterday, the stock was up by 16%. Today, it was up by another 20%. Given the strong upward momentum right now, prices might still continue to climb by tomorrow. However, if you will look at the chart above, prices are now approaching a resistance line at around the 0.85 level. The previous lows at 0.90 might also act as a resistance for the stock as some of those who got stuck at those levels, might sell once they break-when even. I wouldn’t be surprised though if the stock continues to rally all the way up to Jun 3, which is when the TWG (Technical Working Group), assigned to prepare the new revenue-sharing scheme, is set to present in the next MICC (Mining Industry Coordinating Council). Tsupiteros are now recommended to either just hold but place mental stops on the break below the 0.67 level, or, start taking profits on strength.

LC Technical Analysis

Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation

Tsupitero 0.67 0.85 to 0.90 Sideways to Down 0.10 Hold / Take profits on strength

Position Trader 0.56 1.05 Down 0.15 Trade the range

LC Top Buying and Selling Brokers

Thursday May 23, 2013

Friday May 24, 2013

Monday May 27, 2013

Tuesday May 28, 2013

Wednesday May 29, 2013

Buyers

Eastern – 1.966M Abacus – 1.720M Larrgo – 0.845M

Tri-Sate – 0.725M BDO – 0.655M

Larrgo – 0.940M BPI – 0.725M

UCPB – 0.651M Luys – 0.613M

Ansaldo – 0.613M

Larrgo – 3.510M COL – 1.040M BDO – 0.897M

Eastern – 0.776M FirstMetro – 0.702M

DA Market – 7.362M PhilEquity – 5.060M KingsPower – 3.79M BH Chua – 3.501M Bernad – 2.641M

Bernad – 18.274M COL – 14.312M

Thing-On – 7.396M RCBC – 7.213M

ATdeCastro – 4.45M

Sellers

COL – 4.384M BH Chua – 3.513M

Tower – 1.430M F Yap – 0.921M

Asiasec – 0.228M

COL – 3.032M Angping – 1.116M

MDR – 0.867M F Yap – 0.421M ATR – 0.227M

ATR – 3.238M UBS – 2.918M

F Yap – 1.176M SB – 0.973M BPI – 0.925M

SB – 14.104M F Yap – 5.671M

AB Cap – 1.738M Goldstar – 1.581M Abacus – 1.370M

ATR – 14.138M CLSA – 7.800M

CreditSui – 7.800M KingsPower – 5.73M

F Yap – 5.582M

LCB Net Foreign Activity

Amount 4,116,240 (420,490) 59,550 (371,600) (1,685,840)

LC News/Rumors

Proposed Mining Law readied. http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=TopStory&title=Proposed-mining-law-readied&id=70868

Recommendations for Tsupiteros

Technical Analysis of Selected Stocks


LTG 25.00 26.00 Sideways 0.60 Hold / Buy if breakout

Comments: Rallying from its support at 25.00 but still hesitating at 26.00. Needs to break 26.00 to trend up


OPM 0.023 0.025 Sideways to Up 0.001 Hold / Buy as long as support holds

Comments: Still consolidating within its range. Needs to take out 0.025 to get some momenum going.


OV 0.042 0.044 - 0.045 Sideways 0.001 Buy as long as support holds

Comments: Still stuck within its range. Needs to take out 0.044 to 0.045 to get some momenum going.


VMC 1.97 2.05 Up 0.08 Buy if support holds

Comments: Hesitating at the 2.05 level but may still be bullish as long as support holds.


AGI 24.50 26.00 Sideways to Up 0.90 Trade the range

Comments: Trying to rally off the 24.50 level but seems to be having a tough time doing so.


COSCO 13.84 15.50 - 16.00 Down 0.70 Sell on strength

Comments: Rallying from its trough at 13.84 but now approaching its resistances at 15.50 to 16.00.


FGEN 19.90 - 20.00 22.50 Down 1.15 Sell on strength

Comments: Rallying from its trough at 19.90 but now approaching its resistances at around 22.50.


MCP 11.30 11.90 / 12.50 Down 0.45 Trade the range

Comments: Trying to rally off the 11.30 level but seems to be having a tough time doing so.

Comments: Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation

URC 124.00 130.00 Sideways to Up 4.50 Trade the range

Comments: Continuing to rally off the 117.70 level but now approaching its resistance at around 130.00.

Today’s Notes for Tsupiteros

` Top Ten Net Foreign Buying Stock Top Ten Most Active Stock Top Ten Gainers

MPI P58,861,455 TEL P613,242,460 LCB 20.59%

JFC P54,889,152 AGI P582,772,525 LC 20.00%

TEL P45,670,080 SM P470,136,955 ZHI 11.25%

AEV P28,619,288 SMPH P454,504,107 JFC 9.42%

SECB P24,259,642 MPI P385,606,526 MAB 6.98%

BPI P21,459,108 ALI P327,200,400 MA 6.98%

PSE P18,253,042 SMC P316,365,995 GLO 6.08%

PF P17,782,762 JGS P310,963,105 NI 5.96%

MWIDE P16,280,675 MBT P296,757,280 GERI 5.24%

LTG P14,318,565 BDO P291,691,253 AEV 5.02%

Stock Top Ten Net Foreign Selling Stock Top Ten Most Volatile Stock Top Ten Losers

SMPH (P221,447,741) MMI 28.49% PXP -4.14%

SMC (P166,223,167) LCB 20.69% SHNG -3.10%

SM (P147,800,535) LC 19.64% SMC -1.87%

MEG (P79,556,310) FGEN 11.21% RLC -1.84%

JGS (P79,097,930) MAB 10.00% SMPH -1.48%

MBT (P78,429,957) MA 9.76% PNB -1.36%

AGI (P74,717,140) COSCO 9.24% FOOD -1.10%

AC (P62,485,775) NI 9.15% TSI -1.04%

URC (P48,478,859) DFNN 9.05% VMC -0.99%

AP (P45,390,540) NIKL 7.46% COAL -0.97%

Important Notice - The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Tsupiteros are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between one day and two weeks. The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Position Traders are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between two weeks and three months. Traders who have a holding period of more than three months are not advised to use this newsletter.

Legend: + recommend to buy if resistance is taken out to the upside * recommended stop ^ recommendation has changed from the previous day

Glossary of Terms:

1. Support - A historical price level at which falling prices have stopped falling and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 2. Resistance - A historical price level at which rising prices have stopped rising and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 3. Average True Range (ATR) – defined by Wilder to be the greatest of the following for each period:

• The distance from today’s high to today’s low • The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s high • The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s low

The Average True Range is simply the average of the true ranges over the past x periods (where x is specified by the user). In this newsletter, the ATR is computed in percentage terms. The ATR for Tsupiteros is calculated on a lookback period of 3 days, while the ATR for Position Traders is calculated on a lookback period of 3 weeks.

4. Trend - The general drift, tendency or bent of a set of statistical data as related to time.

Disclaimer – This document is published by Michael S. Sayo. The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of the addressee only and it is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. Michael S. Sayo accepts no liability for any direct or incidental loss arising from the use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. I may or may not hold the securities that I recommend in this newsletter.

Author: Miko S. Sayo Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.tsupitero.com

The Tsupitero Newsletter 05-29-2013

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