The Technology and Future of Weather Forecasting Cliff Mass University of Washington.
Transcript of The Technology and Future of Weather Forecasting Cliff Mass University of Washington.
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The Technology and Future of Weather Forecasting
Cliff MassUniversity of Washington
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2012: Hurricane Sandy
125 dead, 60+ billion dollars damage in an area with a population of tens of millions.
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Well predicted, more than a week ahead
ECMWF 6-day Forecast of Sea Level Pressure
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1938 Hurricane: Similar in Strength to Sandy
Nearly a thousand died
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Not forecast the day before
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1962 Columbus Day Storm
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Not forecast the day before either
Seattle Times
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Jan 1993: Inauguration Day Storm: Near Perfect Forecast
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Something Has Changed
Before 1990 the National Weather Service got virtually every major storm wrong, even the
day before.
After 1990, they gave good warnings for nearly all.
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Forecast Skill Improvement
ForecastError
Year
Better
National Weather Service
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Skill Improvements (ECMWF)
Major improvements, mainly due to satellite data and improved models
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Weatherman Jokes Are No Longer Appropriate
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The Key Technology of Modern Weather Forecasting is
Numerical Weather Prediction
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The First Numerical Weather Prediction
• The first successful numerical prediction of weather was made in April 1950, using the ENIAC computer at Maryland's Aberdeen Proving Ground
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Numerical Weather Prediction
• The basic idea is that if you can determine the current state of the atmosphere (known as the initialization) , you can predict the future using the equations that describe the physics of the atmosphere.
• These equations can be solved on a three-dimensional grid.
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Observation Collection Needed to Create the Initialization
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Numerical Weather Prediction
One of the equations used to predict the weather is Newton’s Second Law:
F = maForce = mass x acceleration
Mass is the amount of matter
Acceleration is how velocity changes with time
Force is a push or pull on some object (e.g., gravitational force, pressure forces, friction)
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This equation is a time machine!
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•The initialization gives the distribution of mass (how much air there is and where) and allows us to calculate the various forces.
•Then… we can solve for the acceleration using F=ma
•With the acceleration we can calculate the velocities in the future.
•Similar idea with temperature and humidity but with different equations.
F = ma
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The “Primitive” Equations
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Numerical Weather Prediction• Numerical weather prediction is limited by the
available computer resources.
• As computer speed increases, the number of grid points can be increased.
• More (and thus) closer grid points means we can simulate (forecast) smaller scale features.
National WeatherService WeatherPrediction Computer
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NGM, 80 km,1995
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1995
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2007-2008
4-km UWMM5 System
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1.33 km resolution available on the UW web site
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But just as important as the computer revolution has been the
weather data revolution, with satellites giving us three
dimension data over the entire planet
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Example: The Pacific Data Void No Longer Exists
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Cloud Track Winds
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Better than Star Trek!
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NOAA PolarOrbiter WeatherSatellite
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Satellite Sensors Provide Thousands of High Quality Vertical Soundings Daily over the Pacific
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Cosmic GPS Satellites Provide More Soundings!
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Impacts
• The addition of massive amounts of new observations is causing a steady improvement in weather prediction
• We are now starting to see frequent examples of forecast skill past one week:
• Hurricane Sandy is only one example
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Observed 180 hr (7.5 days)
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Forecast Skill Will Continue to Extend Further in Time…with
limits (about 2 weeks)
• More satellite assets will provide a far better description of the atmosphere.
• Better models and higher resolution
• Better data assimilation: how we use the observations to produce an initialization for our models.
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Increasing Resolution and Better Models Will Not Be Enough
The Next Major Revolution in Numerical Weather Prediction
Will Come Elsewhere
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The Transition from Deterministic to Probabilistic
Prediction
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A Fundamental Problem• The way we have been forecasting
has been essentially flawed.
• The atmosphere is a chaotic system, in which small differences in the initialization…well within observational error… can have large impacts on the forecasts, particularly for longer forecasts.
• Not unlike a pinball game….
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A Fundamental Problem
• Similarly, uncertainty in processes, like the development of clouds and precipitation, also produces uncertainty in forecasts.
• Thus, all forecasts have some uncertainty.
• The uncertainty generally increases in time.
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This is Ridiculous!
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Forecast Probabilistically
• We should be using probabilities for all our forecasts or at least providing the range of possibilities.
• There is an approach to handling this issue that is being explored by the forecasting community…ensemble forecasts
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Ensemble Prediction
• Instead of making one forecast…make many…each with a slightly different initialization or different model physics.
• Possible to do this now with the vastly greater computation resources that are available.
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Ensemble Prediction
•Can use ensembles to give the probabilities that some weather feature will occur.
• Ensemble mean is more accurate than any individual member.
•Can also predict forecast skill!•When forecasts are similar, forecast skill is generally higher.•When forecasts differ greatly, forecast skill is less.
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Prediction!
• The meteorological profession is rapidly gaining the ability to produce high-resolution probabilistic weather forecasts AND analyses.
• Probabilistic forecasts and analyses will be available for a wide range of weather parameters.
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The Nowcasting Revolution
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AMS Nowcasting Definition
A description of current weather and a short-term forecast varying from minutes to a few hours; typically shorter than most operational short-range forecasts.
American Meteorological Society’s Glossary of Weather and Climate
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During the past decade or so the geographical and temporal specificity of
the information that the weather profession can provide has greatly
increased.
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Pacific Northwest Surface Observations
3000-4000 observations per hour over WA and OR
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Traditional Approaches of Weather Information
Dissemination Are Incapable of Delivering the Specificity and
Detail Meteorologists Can Now Provide
Typical TV weathercasters have only 2.5 minutes!
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There has never been such a large difference between what meteorologists know about current weather and what we are communicating to the public.
An Irony
A Worry
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The Solution? Smartphones are Ideal for Weather Data Delivery.
• Lots of bandwidth• They know where they are, so forecast
information can be tailored to the user• Substantial computational capacity.
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Smartphones Offer a Powerful, Portable Platform for Viewing Weather Information, Forecasts, and Warnings
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There are now thousands of weather apps for
smartphones…and the best are yet to come!
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WeatherProtector
WEATHERPROTECTOR
Tells you whether heavy precipitation, winds, or other weather issue are approaching your position.
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BikeWeatherGuard
Bike WeatherGuard
•Using a map interface, describe your planned route and when you want to travel.•Tells you whether you should delay your trip, or perhaps leave a few minutes early, to stay dry.
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The Weather Adaptive Society
• Advances in computation, control, and communication allows society to react quickly and effectively to weather information.
• At the same time, weather forecasts will rapidly improve.
• Together they allow effective real-time weather adaptation.
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Traffic Can Be Slowed During Dangerous Weather
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Can use flow control to limit the number of cars entering the roadways near heavy rain.
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Power Generation• Coordination of power generation by
weather-sensitive renewables and reserve power sources (e.g., hydro, gas turbines).
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Weather Forecasting is Only One Part of Atmospheric Sciences
• Climate research and prediction
• Severe weather research and prediction (hurricanes, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, windstorms, snowstorms)
• Atmospheric pollution and chemistry
• Mountain meteorology
• And many more…
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The End