The Sustainable Development Scenario · 2019. 12. 13. · The Sustainable Development Scenario and...
Transcript of The Sustainable Development Scenario · 2019. 12. 13. · The Sustainable Development Scenario and...
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The Sustainable Development ScenarioLaura Cozzi, Yasmine Arsalane, Christophe McGlade, Tiffany Vass, Daniel Crow
Paris, 4th December 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Context
• The energy world is marked by a series of deep disparities, between:
- The promise of energy for all, while 850 million people remain without access to electricity
- Better awareness of the impacts of air quality on public health, as pollution in cities continues to rise
- The need for rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, while these emissions reach historic highs
• Cost reductions & digitalisation are boosting new technologies, but they still need a helping hand from policy
• More than ever, energy decision makers need to take a hard, evidence-based look at the choices ahead
• The World Energy Outlook does not forecast what will happen; it explores different possible futures:
- What if the world continues on its current path, with no additional changes?
- What if we reflect today’s policy intentions and targets? This is the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
- What if we meet sustainable energy goals in full? This is the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)
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An integrated strategy for energy & sustainable development
• The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions while also tackling air
pollution, achieving universal energy access
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
change
climateAddress
accessenergy
universalAchieve
Improve airquality
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No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals
Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source
A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach, and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation
10
20
30
40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gt CO2
Other renewables end-uses
Nuclear
Sustainable Development Scenario
Biofuels transport
Air conditioners
Cars & trucksHeavy industry
WindSolar PV
Hydro
Electric vehiclesFuel switch incl. hydrogen
Buildings
CCUS power
Current Trends
Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel switch, CCUSand other
Aviation and shipping
Power
CCUS industry
Other renewables power
Light industry
Stated Policies ScenarioIndustrial electric motors
Behavioural changeResource efficiency
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How does the SDS compare to other climate scenarios?
The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2050 in the SDS is within the envelope of 1.5 °C scenarios used by the IPCC. Climate action beyond 2050 will determine the ultimate temperature outcome
Energy sector CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and other “well below 2 °C” scenarios
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2015 2025 2035 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Gt
CO
2
20452015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Below 1.5 °C
1.5-1.8 °C
SDS
SDS to 1.65 °C
SDS to 1.5 °C
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500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Peo
ple
(m
illio
n)
2000 2010 2018 2030
Accelerating action in power is key to achieve sustainable goals
Population without electricity access
Stated Policies scenario
Despite progress in several countries, access programs barely outpace sub-Saharan population growth;solar PV is essential to bridge the gap for universal access and deliver affordable electricity to millions
Other sub-SaharanAfrica
Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda & Senegal
India
Other AsiaNorth Africa & Middle EastLatin America
Solutions to provide full access by 2030
in Sub-Saharan Africa
Grid extension
and densification43%
Mini-grids
31%
Stand-alone
Systems26%
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2 500
5 000
7 500
2010 2018 2030 2040 2050
GW
Towards a low-carbon power sector
Renewables provide three-quarters of the growth in electricity supply to 2040 under stated policiesmuch more is needed: a greater shift towards low-carbon generation and tackling the legacy issues
Global power capacity by source
Stated Policies Scenario
Historical Projections
2018 2030 2040 2050
Global power capacity by source
Sustainable Development Scenario
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Solar PV
Gas Hydro
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
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A carbon neutral Europe puts offshore wind in front
Offshore wind is set to become the largest source of electricity in the European Union by 2040, complementing other renewables towards a fully decarbonised power system
Shares of electricity generation by technology in the European Union, Sustainable Development Scenario
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Onshore wind
Nuclear
BioenergySolar PVHydroNatural gas
Coal
Offshore wind
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Investment in CCUS will be critical to ensure that the young coal fleet is compatible with climate targets, while repurposing them to provide flexibility can reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions, and help integrate renewables
Today’s coal plants leave a legacy that technology can address
Annual CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants
Existing and under construction
Sustainable DevelopmentScenario
2018 2040 20502030
Coal-fired capacity, existing and under construction:
2
4
6
8
10
12
Gig
ato
nn
es
Early retirements
CCUS retrofits orrepurposing
Subcritical
Advanced
Combinedheat andpower
Developingeconomiesin Asia
Otherdevelopingeconomies
Advancedeconomies
2 250 GW
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Emissions from transport: easy wins and tough challenges
Efficiency improvements and EVs cut CO2 emissions from cars in both scenarios. Trucks, aviation and shipping are harder to abate and will require low carbon fuels and new technologies in the long term.
CO2 emissions from transport by mode and by scenario
2
4
6
8
10
2018 2050 STEPS 2050 SDS
GtC
O2
Aviation, Shippingand Other
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Light Duty Vehiclesand Motorcycles
+51%
+44%
-12%
-46%
-36%
-78%
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Buildings sector: different challenges around the world
Tough regulations in advanced economies see deliver emissions reductions in STEPS; SDS only builds on this trend. For developing economies a sea change is required, supported by the rapid decarbonisation of power
CO2 emissions from buildings in advanced and developing economies by scenario
2018 2030 2040 2050 2018 2030 2040 2050
Developing economies
GtCO2
Indirect
Direct
Indirect
Direct
Indirect
Direct
2018
SDS
STEPS2
4
6
8
Advanced economies
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Clean cooking for all: planned effort lags behind
Despite progress in several countries, acceleration is needed in Africa and AsiaLPG and improved cookstoves could significantly lower premature deaths due to household air pollution
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2000 2010
Population without access to clean cooking
by scenario
Stated Policies Sustainable Development
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other Asia
India
Other developing countries
LPG44%
Improved biomass cookstoves 43%
Biogas digesters 8%
Electric stoves5%
Population gaining access by 2030
Sustainable Development Scenario,
bill
ion
2020 20302018
Sub-Saharan AfricaOther Asia
India
Other developing countries
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Industry requires multiple emissions reduction strategies
Energy efficiency makes up the largest portion of industry emissions reductions in the SDS, followed by fuel switching, carbon capture and storage and material efficiency.
Savings in energy-related CO2 emissions in industry by measure and scenario
2
4
6
8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gt CO2
Stated Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario
Energy efficiency
Material efficiency
Fuel switching
CCUS
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Liquids and gases remain the cornerstone of energy consumption
Electricity comprises and increasing share of energy consumption but liquids and gases remain central to energy use. Limiting the emissions from these is a key element of energy transitions.
Share of fuels in total final energy consumption in the Sustainable Development Scenario
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2010 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
Electricity and heat
Liquids
Gases
Coal
Other
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Energy-sector investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario
Investment in fuels and power is marked by a major reallocation of capital towards renewables and electricity networks; demand-side investment increases substantially
Average annual energy investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2014-2018 and 2019-2050
0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8
2014-18
2019-50
2014-18
2019-50
2014-18
2019-50
OilNatural gasCoalBiofuels
Fossil fuels (w/o CCUS)Fossil fuels (w/CCUS)NuclearRenewablesNetworksBattery storage
RenewablesEfficiencyOther
Power
Trillion dollars (2018)
End-use
Fuels
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The Sustainable Development Scenario and 1.5 °C
Emissions trajectories for total CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and to limit warming to 1.5 °C
If emissions turn net negative after 2070, the Sustainable Development Scenario could lead to a 50% chance of limiting the temperature rise to below 1.5 °C
-15
0
15
30
45
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1.5 °C with no negative emissions
Sustainable Development Scenario
From SDS towards 1.5 °C
From SDS towards 1.65 °C
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