SCENARIO PLANNING: THE CENTRAL TEXAS SUSTAINABLE …
Transcript of SCENARIO PLANNING: THE CENTRAL TEXAS SUSTAINABLE …
SCENARIO PLANNING:THE CENTRAL TEXAS SUSTAINABLE PLACESPROJECT
Graduate Program in Community and Regional PlanningUT Center for Sustainable Development
Overview
Background on Central Texas ExperienceFive major shortcomings of Scenario Planningin Central TexasSustainable Places Project: The NextGeneration of Scenario Planning SoftwareCurrent Activities Next Steps….
The Central Texas Challenge
Not Unlike Many MetrosFragmented Metro area with many cities, MUDs,and counties not terribly coordinated in managinggrowth and development on a regional scaleOne of the Fastest Growing MSAs in the US for 3decades running…..Many fits and starts – some good plans made (butnot always adopted nor implemented)Recognition of the importance of sustainabilityapproach – that protects environment, improvessocial justices and enhances a place basedeconomy
1998 - _Present
2035 RTP37 Project
Activity Centers
Activity Center - Urban VillageWork, Live and Play
In Pursuit of Regional Sustainability
SustainableCommunities
Regional PlanningGrant
Address Five Major Problems
1. Transaction Costs to Doing ScenarioPlanning
2. Disbelief among important stakeholders thatit is based on market and profit realities
3. Often, indicators do not match the localvalues and therefore don’t aid in learning,adoption or implementation
4. N-table problem5. Helps clarify issues but not always solutions
Austin SustainableCommunities GrantBuild on Existing Regional Collaboration toImplement the Regional Plan Concepts in the ECTand CAMPO 2035 Plan through:Creation of the next generation sustainabilityAnalysis Software SuiteBeta Test and refine the software suite withDemonstration Planning Projects with CentralTexas Communities committed to the CAMPO2035 PlanTrain Region’s network of planners in the use ofthe New Software and apply to all centers….
The Central Texas SustainablePlace Analytic Suite
Assemble the best elements from all collaborators to producethe next generation of sustainability scenario planningsoftwareThe new “state of the art” sustainability analytic tools willincrease local usability and local capacity for analysis with ET+being the backbone of the effort.The tool will include many locally calibrated indicators ofsustainability that will enable Central Texas communities tomake better informed choices in land use and transportationplanning.Create a tool that better enables user learning and solutionswith pop up windows, links to source documents andthresholds for guidance where appropriate…
Sustainable Places Project:Analytic Tools Team
Building on the ET+ Framework
Suite of planning tools:Prototype Builder
Return on Investment (ROI) model
Scenario BuilderExtension for ArcGIS
University of Texas – Center forSustainable Development
Project Lead – Coordinates all partnerorganizations and working with local planningconsultants on the demonstration sites.Adding many Central Texas calibratedsustainability metrics for use with model.Adding higher user functionality with pop-upwindows that explain importance of each indicatorwith hyperlinks to on-line sources as well asplanning and design solutions when indicators arenot in a desired state.Long term steward and developer of analyticsystem for Texas and beyond
The Sustainable Places Project: Dealingwith Past Planning Shortcomings….
Many citizens and developers argue too muchplanning is utopian without grounding in fiscalrealities of the land development process andbottom line profit considerations…ET+ betteraddresses this upfront….Transparent and accessible tool
simple Arc-Excel linkmost calculations performed in Excel
Start at Building levelfinancially feasible scenarioswealth of available data on buildingseasily modeled indicators (land use, energy, financial)
Criterion Planners & AssociatesProblem: 80% of Scenario Planning Effort in start up…..
Solution: maximize usability with a standardized data schemaand reduce transaction costs where feasible with new tool: DataWizard
Data Quality WizardBad geometries removed (null, self-intersecting, etc)Street-centerlines-to-parcel-rights-of-way alignment checkedMulti-part demographic parcels splitProper boundary-to-land-use topology ensured
Provide technical design coordinationInsure integrated operationsStandardized Data Schema
HDR, Inc.
Sustainable Return on Investment (SROI)Monetize sustainable development benefitsProduce an inventory of social values to beused within the tool to determine monetaryvalues of the social and environmental impactsExamples: Value of a Statistical Life (VSL),Value of a Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY),Social Cost of an Incremental Ton of GreenHouse Gases (GHGs), Social Cost of anIncremental Ton of Various Criteria AirContaminants (CAC’s), Social Value ofEcosystem Services, Business ProductivityImpacts, and Jobs and Tax Impacts.
Center for Transportation Research
Dynamic Traffic Assignment ModelEnsure transportation-related performancemeasures are appropriately incorporated intothe modelPossible regionally calibrated Bike andPedestrian Quality/Supply side factors tied toactual counts for design alternatives
18 “Apps” Either completed or underdevelopment with MRC Univ. of Utah
Growth Location PredictionBuilding and Land Use TypesBuilding EnergyConsumption7D Transportation EffectsReturn on InvestmentHousing + TransportationCostsAir Quality and CO2 ImpactsFiscal ImpactPublic HealthEmployment Growth
Employment ResilienceDevelopment CapitalRedevelopment TimingWater ConsumptionTransportation SafetyWorkforce HousingLEED-NDArts and Public AmenitiesLocal Jobs HousingBalance
Texas Advanced ComputingCenterCloud veil hosting of the analytic tool (web basedversion)Web display and visualization technology
Hardware and softwareIntegration with CityEngine 3D visualization
Site for one or two demo site charrettes – @ UTVisualization LabOn-line Participatory Planning Interface as well asTemplates for results from Charrettes for localitieswanting to share and expand the participation withinthe community via the WWW
Preliminary List ofSustainability Indicators
Walkable Schools
Parks for Everyone
Shaded, walkable str eets
Accessible Community Services
Accessible Retail Services
Healthy Food Access
Urban Efficiency
Land Use Diversity
Employment Center Competitiveness
Efficient Use of Land
Transit Supportive Neighborhoods
Accessible Important Places
Urban Forest
Park Space Availability
Healthy Water Systems
Climate Change
Air Quality
Road construction cost
Total Revenues
Total Expenditures
Fiscal Balance
Transit Accessibility
Pedestrian Friendly
Transit Supportive Activity
Sidewalks
Live-Work Places
Housing for Everyone
Adequate Parking
Necessary Public Services
Access to Education
Trend Scenario– Hutto, TX
Compilation Scenario– Hutto, TX
Select Indicators from Hutto
Tie to implementation solutions
Quality Growth Toolbox
Quality Growth Toolbox
Address Five Major Problems
1. Transaction Costs to Doing ScenarioPlanning (Data Schema/Wizard/Training)
2. Disbelief among important stakeholders thatit is based on market and profit realities. ET+
3. Often, indicators do not match the localvalues and therefore don’t aid in learning,adoption or implementation (Good Process –ask and then use appropriate analytics)
4. N-table problem (On-line engagement)5. Helps clarify issues but not always solutions
(Integrate planning and design solutions info)
Conclusions
Assemble the best elements from allcollaboratorsProduced a new “state of the art” suite ofsustainability analytic tools that increaseusability and local capacity for analysis withET+ the backbone of the effortHelp move Central Texas communitiesforward in realizing the Regional Vision….Energize local planning with more informedchoices from the analytics…grow the systemthrough open source community….
Q&A?