The solar cycle response of the middle and upper atmosphere: Simulations with HAMMONIA

The solar cycle response of the middle and upper atmosphere: Simulations with

HAMMONIA

Hauke Schmidt1, Guy Brasseur2, Marco Giorgetta1, and Aleksandr Gruzdev3

1: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany2: now at National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,

USA3: A. M. Obukhov Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Moscow,

Russia

Schmidt et al., Univ. of Bremen, February 2006

Outline

•HAMMONIA - Model description

•The atmospheric response to the 27-day variation

•The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle

- Energy budget

- Chemistry

- Dynamics

•The atmospheric response to CO2 doubling


HAMMONIA – a member of the ECHAM familyEC

HA

M5

MA

EC

HA

M5

HA

MM

ON

IA

~ 250 km

~ 80 km

~ 30 km

Sola

r H

eati

ng

(n

ear

UV

, vis

. &

near

IR)

Mole

cu

lar

Pro

cesses

Sola

r H

eati

ng

(S

RB

&C

, Ly-a

,

EU

V)

IR C

oolin

gIR

Coolin

g (

non

-LTE)

Ch

em

ical

heati

ng

Gra

vit

y W

ave D

rag

Ion

D

rag

Tu

rbu

len

t D

iffu

sio

n

Clo

ud

s &

C

on

vecti

on

Su

rface

Flu

xes

Neu

tral G

as P

hase C

hem

istr

y

(MO

ZA

RT3

)


HAMMONIA - Description (1)

• 67 levels from the surface to ~250 km, T31 horizontal resolution

• Based on ECHAM/MAECHAM5 with extensions to account for processes in the upper atmosphere

• Radiation

- Near UV, Vis. & near IR heating: 4 bins, Fouquart & Bonnel (Contr. Atm Phys., 1980); or taken from TUV (< 680nm)

- IR cooling: RRTM from Mlawer et al. upto 0.1 hPa (eg. Iacono et al., JGR, 2000)

- Non-LTE IR cooling: 15 μm CO2 & 9.6 μm O3 above 0.02 hPa (Fomichev, JGR, 1998)

- CO2-IR heating (Ogibalov & Fomichev, Adv. Sp. Res., 2003)

- EUV heating: 5 to 105 nm, 20 bins, Richards et al. (JGR, 1994), efficiency from Roble (AGU Monogr., 1995)

- Schumann Runge B&C heating: either Strobel (JGR, 1978), eff. from Mlynczak & Solomon (JGR, 1993); or taken from TUV


HAMMONIA - Description (2)

• Doppler-spread non-orographic gravity wave drag (Hines, JASTP, 1997) and orographic gravity wave drag (Lott, MWR, 1999)

• Prescribed ion drag (Hong & Lindzen, JAS, 1996)

• Molecular processes

• Chemistry of the MOZART-3 CTM (48 constituents, 153 gas phase reactions)

• Chemical lower boundary concentrations from MOZART-2 simulations

• Photodissociation rate computation from MOZART-3 (based on TUV, Madronich et al.)• JO2: Chabrillat & Kockaerts (Lya, GRL, 1998), Brasseur & Solomon (SRC,

Book, 1986), Koppers & Murtagh (SRB, Ann. Geoph., 1996)

• JNO: Minschwaner & Siskind (JGR, 1993)

• Chemical heating for 7 reactions

• R and Cp height dependent


Acknowledgements

People at (or formerly at) MPI-Met:

• M. Charron, T. Diehl, M. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, and E. Roeckner and the ECHAM-team

People who contributed to the model development outside MPI-Met:

• V. Fomichev1, D. Kinnison2, and S. Walters2

1 York University, Toronto, Canada2 NCAR, Boulder, USA

• J. Lean (Naval Res. Lab., Washington, USA) provided the solar irradiance spectra

• D. Marsh (NCAR) helped in the model evaluation with SABER data

• M. Zecha and P. Hoffmann (IAP Kühlungsborn) for model evaluation with ground-based observations

• Computations were made at the DKRZ (German climate computing centre)

• The work was supported by the BMBF (German ministry for education and science)


Zonal mean temperature [K], July, 16 LT

HA

MM

ON

IA

SA

BER

/TIM

ED

, Ju

ly 1

-16,

2002


Zonal mean O3 [ppmv], July, 15 LT

HA

MM

ON

IA

SA

BER

/TIM

ED

, Ju

ly 6

-14,

2002

UR

AP


Zonal mean zonal wind [m/s], July

UARS (HRDI) / UKMO

HAMMONIA


Temperature in the Mesopause RegionHAMMONIA – Meteor Radar Observations

(courtesy by M. Zecha, IAP Kühlungsborn, Germany,for meteor radar details, see e.g. Singer et al., JASTP, 2004)


Variability of solar irradiance as given by UARS / SOLSTICE(Maximum: 1992, Minimum: 1996)

(Rottmann, Space Sc. Rev., 2000)


Penetration depth of solar radiation in the atmosphere

(Liou, Academic Press, 2002)

(nm) 50 100 150 200 250 300


The variation of solar UV radiation

(Rottman, Sp. Sc. Rev., 2000)

norm

aliz

ed in

tens

ity


27-day Variation Experiments - Setup

Two simulations over 5 years each:a)forced by mean solar irradiance as for January to June 1990b)as in a) but with an additional 27-day variation of solar

irradiance

- irradiance variation is assumed to be sinusoidal and have a period of exactly 27 days

- irradiance depending on wavelength (1nm resolution, see Lean et al., JGR, 1997) for λ>120nm has been analysed spectrally for Jan-Jun 1990

- the analysed amplitude for the 27-day period was used as amplitude of our artificial forcing

- EUV is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Richards et al., JGR, 1994)

- SSTs fixed to climatological values

- compound concentrations at the surface are fixed to climatological values


The 27-day solar signal in low-latitude ozone

no forcing


The 27-day solar signal in mid-latitude ozone

10 20 30 40 50

Period (day)

0

50

100

150

200

250

He

i gh

t (

km

)

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

winter

10 20 30 40 50

Period (day)

0

50

100

150

200

250

He

igh

t

(k

m)

-6.5

-6.0

-5.5

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

summer

Normalized Ozone Power Spectra at 50N


The 27-day solar signal in stratospheric ozone

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Year of simulation

10

20

30

40

50

Pe

rio

d (

da

y)

-15.0

-14.5

-14.0

-13.5

-13.0

-12.5

-12.0

-11.5

-11.0

Ozone running spectrum at 35 km at 50S


Solar Cycle Experiments - Setup

Two simulations over 20 years forced by constant solar irradiance for

a) solar minimum (September 1986, F10.7=69)b) solar maximum (November 1989, F10.7=235)

- irradiance depending on wavelength (1nm resolution) from Lean et al. (JGR, 1997) for λ>120nm

- EUV is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Richards et al., JGR, 1994)

- upper boundary condition for H und O from MSISE90 is modulated using F10.7 as proxy (Hedin, JGR, 1992)

- thermospheric solar NO production is increased by 1/3 for high activity

- NO production by galactic cosmic rays is modulated

- SSTs fixed to climatological values

- Compound concentrations at the surface fixed to climatological values


Solar cycle effect on the global mean energy budget

solar heating (incl. chemical)infrared coolingmolecular diffusion solar minimum solar maximum


solar heating

long wave heating/cooling

Solar cycle effect on the energy budget(annual mean, K/day)

molecular diffusion (heat conduction)

chemical heating


delta T [vmr], (solar max – min)

delta O3 [%], (solar max – min)

Solar cycle effect - annual mean

delta O3, significance

delta T, significance


Solar cycle effect on temperaturesimulation vs. observations

(observed values are adapted from papers listed by Beig et al., Rev. Geophys., 2003)

8a 0#,b

3-10b

15c

4f

-1f

3j 0#,m8g5h2e

0d

8d

10d

0d

0#,k

delta T [K], annual zonal mean, (solar max – min)

a: French, PhD thesis, 2002, OHb: Reisin & Scheer, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2002, OH, O2c: Mohanakumar, Ann. Geo., 1995, rocketsd: She & Krueger, Adv Sp. Res., 2003, lidare: Lowe, workshop paper, 2002, OHf: Keckhut et al., JGR, 1995, lidarg: Semenov, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2000, OHh: Offerman et al., Adv. Space Res., 2003, OHj: Espy & Stegmann, Ph. Ch. Earth, 2002, OHk: Luebken, GRL, 2000, rocketsm: Sigernes et al., JGR, 2003, OH

#: zero or at least no significant trend


Height vs. Pressure in HAMMONIAsolar min(1*CO2)

solar max – solar min

2*CO2 – 1*CO2

dashed:negative values


delta T [vmr], (solar max – min)

delta O3 [%], (solar max – min)

Solar cycle effect - annual mean

delta O3, significance

delta T, significance

Solar cycle effect on annual mean stratospheric ozone(Lee and Smith, JGR, 2003)

Satellite observations

2D-model results


Confidence level of delta O3 [%]

delta O3 [%], July, (high - low) activity

delta O3 [%], July, (high - low) activity

Solar cycle effect on July ozoneO3 [vmr], July, low activity


The solar cycle effect on the diurnal variation of ozone at the mesopause

local time

0 4 8 12 16 20 0

local time

0 4 8 12 16 20 0


Solar cycle effect on July chemistry

Noctilucent Clouds(Polar Mesospheric Clouds)

Occur at the summer mesopause, depending on• Temperature (< 150 K)• Water vapor• Condensation nuclei


Solar Cycle and Polar Mesospheric Clouds

(DeLand et al., JGR, 2003)


delta T [K], July, (high - low) activity

Solar cycle effect on temperature

delta T [K], July, (high - low) activity Confidence level of delta T [%]

T [K], July, low activity


Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere

NCEP analyses, (Kodera & Kuroda, JGR, 2002; Matthes et al., JGR, 2004) HAMMONIA


Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere NCEP analyses,

(Matthes et al., JGR, 2004) HAMMONIAold simulations, 10 years


Solar cycle effect on wintertime zonal mean zonal wind (solar max-solar min) – Northern hemisphere

(Shibata and Kuroda, JASTP,

2005)


The QBO simulated by MA-ECHAM5

(Giorgetta et al., GRL, 2002)

MA-ECHAM5:


Solar cycle effect on temperature – the longitudinal dependence, January


Solar cycle effect on tidesT [K]


Solar cycle effect on tidesv [m/s]


CO2 doubling Experiments - Setup

Four simulations over 10 years each1) surface CO2 of 360 ppm (same run as „solar minimum“)2) surface CO2 of 720 ppm + changed SST (and sea ice)

- initial concentrations doubled to 720 ppm, followed by a one year initialization phase

- sea surface temperatures and sea ice are taken from a respective run with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ECHAM5 + MPI-OM)

3) only SST changed (according to a CO2 concentration of 720 ppm)

4) only CO2 increased to 720 ppm


Effect of CO2 doubling and SST change on Temperature

delta T, July

CO2 + SST changed

delta T, July

only SST changeddelta T, July

only CO2 changed


Effect of CO2 doubling and SST change on Temperature

delta T, July

experiment where CO2 + SSTs are changed simultaneously

delta T, July

sum of two experiments

where CO2 and SSTs are changed separately


Effect of CO2 doubling and SST change on July zonal wind

CO2 + SST changed only SST changeddelta u [m/s], July delta u [m/s], July

u [m/s], July

only CO2 changeddelta u [m/s], July


Conclusions

•The response to the 27-day variation is highly variable in space and time.

•11-year cycle effects in the MLT are strong.

•The magnitude of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response is in agreement with observations. – How sure are we about the response in the real atmosphere?

•The solar signal in stratospheric model winds is not robust. – How robust is the signal in the real atmosphere?

•The solar signal depends on longitude and local time (tides!).

•Changes of SSTs have an influence at least up to the mesopause.


The End

Schmidt et al., The HAMMONIA chemistry climate model: Sensitivity of the mesopause region to the 11-year solar cycle and CO2 doubling, J. Climate, in press, 2006.

available at http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~schmidt.hauke/publications.php

The solar cycle response of the middle and upper atmosphere: Simulations with HAMMONIA

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