The Role of DAta for Climate Monitoring and Prediction

The Role of Data for Climate Monitoring and

Prediction

Stefan Rösner

Head Division Regional Climate Monitoring and Office Deutscher

Klimadienst (GS DKD)

Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)

Offenbach

NAP Expo 13.07.16, S. Rösner, DWD 1

Overview

What data is needed?

Role of Data for Climate Monitoring

Role of Data for Climate Prediction

Monitoring and predicting extreme events



Data that underpin adaptation and mitigation, i.e. understanding the water-, carbon-, and energy-cycles

Data at local, regional and global scales

Data on physical and chemical properties of atmosphere, land, oceans

Data from observations, models

In situ observations

Remote sensing

Re-analyses

Predictions

Projections

Long and homogeneous time series



No climate monitoring without data!

Need for historical data even before instrumental observations



Detection of trends

Understanding climate variability

Extremes

How often?

Which magnitude?

Understanding interactions, fluxes, linkages, impacts

Equally important: meta data, i.e. information onhow, when, where, and by what means observations have been taken

But also: basis for

Developing climate models

Evaluating model results


AR5WG1, FAQ 2.2, Figure 1

Role of Data for Climate Prediction

Understand how well a model can

hindcast past climate at global, regional

or national scales

Validating, assessing & improving models

Measure model performance

Determine predictive skills

Understand uncertainties in model

results


AR5 WG1 FAQ 10.1, Figure 1


Need of long time-series

Homogeneous data

No artificial trends

In Europe the WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre

(RCC) Network has been established.

One of its tasks is monitoring of extreme climate

events for Europe/ the RA VI Region.

It offers / suggests the following services:

Visualization of parameters and extreme events

Climate Watch System

Knowledge Data Base KRONER




Homogeneous data












RCC Offenbach Node on Climate Monitoring

(RCC Node-CM) products

Reports

Monthly Bulletins

Monthly national reports

Annual RA VI Bulletin

Annual WMO-Report

BAMS State of the Climate Report

Monitoring Europe

Temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, drought index, SLP,

cloud coverage, water vapour, radiation, snow, albedo, soil moisture,

Description of methods and climate indices



Precipitation



Drought index



Event maps




Homogeneous data












The Climate Watch System (CWS)

Advisories on upcoming climate events (early warning)

Based on climate monitoring and forecast products (daily, weekly, monthly,

seasonal)

Discussion within RCC consortium partners before issuing

2-step approach for issuing Climate Watch Advisories (CWAs):

RCC-CM provides general advisories (guidance) for NMHSs

NMHSs provide tailored advisories for end users

ECMWF forecasts are included in decision making



The WMO Climate Watch System

provides advisories and statements to

inform users (particularly those involved

in natural hazards preparedness,

mitigation and

response) about

evolving or

foreseen climate

anomalies.




Homogeneous data












Knowledge database on euROpeaN climatE extRemes KRONER

Database solution with data model

Fields with data and metadata: timing of event, impact information, affected countries, etc.

Web application for displaying the spatial extension of events

Test version available, but still not public

Impact information from various sources from the Internet (no media reports)

Presently >7000 events for the period 1900-2012 included

Further events will be inserted and continuously updated

Providing the basis for easy evaluation of parameters of past events and for comparisons with recent events


Monitoring and predicting extreme events - 2007


Thank you for your attention!


Stefan Rösner

Head Division Regional Climate Monitoring and

Office Deutscher Klimadienst (GS DKD)

Focal Point WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre Network

Deputy GCOS German Coordinator

Deutscher Wetterdienst

Frankfurter Strasse 135

63065 Offenbach

Germany

T: +49 69 8062 4306

F: +49 69 8062 3759

E: [email protected]

I: www.dwd.de

The Role of DAta for Climate Monitoring and Prediction

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