The Risk of Change - Value engineering · The Risk of Change Presentation to CSVA October 2004 by...
Transcript of The Risk of Change - Value engineering · The Risk of Change Presentation to CSVA October 2004 by...
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Black & Veatch ConsultingBlack & Veatch Consulting
Value Management!Value Management!
The Risk of ChangeThe Risk of ChangePresentation to CSVA October 2004 Presentation to CSVA October 2004
byby
Tom BleasdaleTom Bleasdale
Black & Veatch Black & Veatch
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AimAim
The aim of the presentation is to provide a brief introduction to some of the risk management techniques that are in use and how they can interact with Value Engineering
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PresentationPresentation
Basis for Synergy
Definitions & Terminologies
Interaction
Examples
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Some Basic Thoughts!Some Basic Thoughts!
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Some Basic ThoughtsSome Basic ThoughtsFor the purposes of this presentation VE or Value Engineering is generic for all forms of Value Management, e.g. Engineering, Management, Assessment, etc,
A scheme can relate to, Construction project
Technical review
System Review
Operations
,etc
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SynergyIn Value Engineering we strive to achieve the most cost effective solutions for both immediate capital expenditure, along with probable life cycle costs.
In other words the Value Engineer performs a Cost Benefit Analysis
In Risk & Reliability Engineering we seek to provide a solution based on ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable).
In other words the Risk Engineer performs a Cost Benefit Analysis
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Synergy
The Higher Order Function (Scheme Intent) provides the basis for determining Success Criteria
Both the Value Engineer and The Risk Engineer review the functionality of the scheme
Each function is reviewed for its criticality
An assessment of benefit is established for each proposed change
The scheme Life Cycle is taken into Account
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Value Management Value Management (VM) provides a systematic Value Management (VM) provides a systematic
approach by which the most cost effective approach by which the most cost effective method can be assessed in order to achieve a method can be assessed in order to achieve a desired aim, without any detriment to desired aim, without any detriment to ReliabilityReliability& & QualityQuality
However VM can lead to change, which in turn, However VM can lead to change, which in turn, can lead to a change in can lead to a change in RISKRISK levels. levels. Risk & Risk & Reliability ManagementReliability Management actively seeks to actively seeks to QUANTIFYQUANTIFY this potential change and its impact this potential change and its impact on on ReliabilityReliability & & QualityQuality..
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Therefore!Therefore!
Whilst seeking to achieve this the VM Whilst seeking to achieve this the VM team team MUST TAKEMUST TAKE into account the into account the potential impact on risk that the VM potential impact on risk that the VM study can have on the Reliability & study can have on the Reliability & Quality of the Higher Order FunctionQuality of the Higher Order Function
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Definition of Risk
Risk can be defined as the Risk can be defined as the likelihood of an event happening likelihood of an event happening compared the potential compared the potential consequences of such an event consequences of such an event should it occur.should it occur.
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Terminologies
When we refer to assessment of risk there are three methods for quantifying risk
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Types of Risk Assessment Quantitative (QRA) - This can be a detailed
mathematical assessment of the probability of failure (Success).
It utilises hard Data as for example
Failure Rates Consequence
Repair Times Capital Cost
Criticality Performance
Life Cycle Regulatory
It provides the user with both probability and likely outcome as a numerical consequence e.g. 10-6 fatalities equivalents
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Types of Risk Assessment Qualitative-
This is a highly subjective/judgemental approach generally utilising a Risk Matrix. High, Low, Medium, 1:10, 90%, etc
Semi-Quantitative-
This is a mixture of hard and subjective data. Can also include various risk management techniques such as HAZOP, HAZAN, etc. As with Qualitative it generally uses a Risk Matrix, but with a more mathematical assessment. Quantification of Risk (Consequence x Probability)
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TerminologiesRBC RBC –– Reliability Centred MaintenanceReliability Centred MaintenanceRAM RAM –– Reliability, Availability, MaintainabilityReliability, Availability, MaintainabilityFME(C)A FME(C)A -- Failure Modes Effects (Criticality) AnalysisFailure Modes Effects (Criticality) Analysis
RBD RBD –– Reliability Block DiagramReliability Block DiagramRBA RBA –– Risk Based Asset ManagementRisk Based Asset ManagementFault & Event TreesFault & Event TreesMonte Carlo SimulationMonte Carlo SimulationLive Risk RegisterLive Risk RegisterHAZOP HAZOP –– HAZardHAZard & & OPerabilityOPerability Study Study
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Risk Matrix
A risk matrix is a means of providing both a qualitative & semi-quantitative assessment of risk
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Qualitative Risk Matrix10
SeveritySeverity
HIGHHIGH
MEDIUMMEDIUM
LOWLOW
e.g.High/High = HighMedium/High = HighLow/High = Medium7 x 7 = 49 = Medium
10
49
Prob
abili
tyPr
obab
ility
0
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Semi Quantitative Risk Matrix
Unl
ikel
yU
nlik
ely
IntolerableIntolerable
TolerableTolerable
AcceptableAcceptable
Prob
able
Prob
able
Prob
abili
tyPr
obab
ility
Mos
t Lik
ely
Mos
t Lik
ely
SeveritySeverity
Minor InjuriesMinor Injuries Major InjuriesMajor Injuries FatalitiesFatalities
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3 Dimensional Risk Matrix
Severity
Severity
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3 Dimensional Risk Matrix
SeveritySeverity
Probable Severity
Probable Severity
Medium
Low
HighPr
obab
ility
Prob
abili
ty
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How can Risk & VM be incorporated?
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Value ManagementValue Management
Time Given ApproachTime Given Approach
InformationInformation F.A.S.T.F.A.S.T. Brain StormingBrain Storming EvaluationEvaluation ImplementationImplementation
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Risk Management Risk Management ApproachApproach
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Starting Point
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HOW WHY
SCOPE
Objectives &Specifications
Functions ThatHappen All The Time
HigherOrder
Function
LowestOrder
Function
BasicFunction
F.A.S.T Diagram
WHEN
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Atypical Fault Tree
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Reliability Block Diagram (RBD)Reliability Block Diagram (RBD)
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HOWHOW WHYWHY
SCOPESCOPE
Objectives &Objectives &SpecificationsSpecifications
Functions ThatFunctions ThatHappen All The TimeHappen All The Time
HigherHigherOrderOrder
FunctionFunction
LowestLowestOrderOrder
FunctionFunction
BasicBasicFunctionFunction
F.A.S.T DiagramF.A.S.T Diagram
WHENWHEN
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HOWHOW WHYWHY
SCOPESCOPE
Objectives &Objectives &SpecificationsSpecifications
Functions ThatFunctions ThatHappen All The TimeHappen All The Time
HigherHigherOrderOrder
FunctionFunction
LowestLowestOrderOrder
FunctionFunction
BasicBasicFunctionFunction
F.A.S.T DiagramF.A.S.T Diagram
WHENWHEN
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Template Stage
InformationInformation Brain StormingBrain Storming EvaluationEvaluationF.A.S.T.F.A.S.T.NONOYESYES ImplementationImplementation
Template for Risk ModelTemplate for Risk Model
ReliabilityReliabilityAnalysisAnalysis
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InformationInformation
ReliabilityReliabilityAnalysisAnalysis
Brain StormingBrain Storming EvaluationEvaluationF.A.S.T.F.A.S.T.NONOYESYES ImplementationImplementation
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Where Does it Fit In?
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HAZANHAZANAsset
Asset Management
Management
RAMSRAMS
VMVM
StudyStudy
QRAQRA
Overall Systems Overall Systems
EffectivenessEffectiveness
RCMRCM
RBIRBI
DesignDesign
LCALCA
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Example of Risk Generating a VE Study
A system is designed to have an availability level of 100% based upon a reliability of 1 major systems failure per 10 years.
RAM analysis has determined that the systems current reliability is more towards 1 major system failure per 3 years giving an availability of 90% .
This has resulted in system overloads and unscheduled failures.
A VE study is required to assess the most cost effective means of increasing availability.
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Best Value Fit
Exp
endi
ture
Good Value - ALARP
Reliability
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Bridge Construction Project The following is based upon a real project and
how a more detailed use of Reliability Modelling can be used.Some of the Issues,
Novel Design of Bridge
Materials of Construction
In country capacity for technical skills
Capacity to supply materials in country
Contractual Conditions to be met
Geotechnical requirements
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Bridge Construction Project Due to the time constraint for the study, a semi
quantitative assessment was carried out.
The aim of the assessment was to provide a confidence factor for the study and avoid technical prejudices
Each identified issue was allotted a criteria for success and a value based upon its ability to meet that criteria
The probable consequences for failure were identified on a generic basis
A basic fault tree was drawn up with decision gates and supportive events.
From this area of criticality were defined
The result indicated that a high degree of confidence could be achieved for a successful outcome. But most importantly it identified the areas providing the greater degree of risk.
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Monte Carlo SimulationMonte Carlo Simulation
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Monte Carlo - Description This is a mathematical model of the results of the
various techniques used in Risk Analysis. First developed for use in the “Atomic” industry.
The basis for the technique is the roll of the dice (Hence Monte Carlo).
It takes into account that whilst based upon certain criteria being met, the probability of an event occurring can be taken as predicted, the resulting consequences however may change.
The tighter the criteria for success the greater degree of uncertainty in the outcome. E.g. with 2 dice roll a value of 12.
The less stringent the criteria the more predictable e.g. ODDS or EVENS.
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Low Degree of Confidence
ImpactImpact
0
20
10
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 7060 80 90 100
% P
roba
bilit
y%
Pro
babi
lity
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% P
roba
bilit
y%
Pro
babi
lity
ImpactImpact
00
2020
1010
3030
4040
5050
6060
7070
8080
9090
100100
00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 70706060 8080 9090 100100
High Degree of Confidence
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Reliability Modelling
In general terms, the Monte Carlo simulation looks at the randomness on potential outcome of an event.
The more accurate the data the less random the potential outcome.
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Reliability Modelling Reliability modelling examines how a “system” is Reliability modelling examines how a “system” is
constructed (Functionality) and determines potential constructed (Functionality) and determines potential “failure” modes, including topics such as “failure” modes, including topics such as
frequencies
recovery times
criticality
availability
maintainability
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It can be used to predict,
Schedule, including contingency
Cost Benefit Analysis
Risk Based Asset Management
Life Cycle Analysis
Construction techniques & materials
Capital Expenditure, including Contingency
Future Availability
Quality
Reliability Modelling
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InformationInformation
ReliabilityReliabilityAnalysisAnalysis
Brain StormingBrain Storming EvaluationEvaluationF.A.S.T.F.A.S.T.NONOYESYES ImplementationImplementation
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Overall Systems Management
Value ManagementValue Management
Risk/Reliability ManagementRisk/Reliability Management
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Black & Veatch ConsultingBlack & Veatch Consulting
Value Management!Value Management!
The Risk of ChangeThe Risk of ChangePresentation to CSVA October 2004 Presentation to CSVA October 2004
byby
Tom BleasdaleTom Bleasdale
Black & Veatch Black & Veatch