CSVA2012ConferenceCSVA2012ConferenceCalgary Alberta CanadaCalgary Alberta CanadaCalgary,Alberta,CanadaCalgary,Alberta,Canada

GregGregBrink,CVS,PMIBrink,CVS,PMIRMP,PMP,CCE/ARMP,PMP,CCE/A

BackgroundInformationFunctionDrivenRiskManagement(FDRM)g ( )ProcessRiskIdentificationRiskAnalysisRiskResponsePlanningRiskMonitoringandControl

ConclusionsQ iQuestions

Wi DOTM WisDOTMegaProjectEff ti l Effectivelyaprogramconsistingofmultipleprojectsp j17milesfrom20092014inWinnebagoCCounty14milesfrom20102017inBrownCounty2017inBrownCounty

ManychallengescreatinguncertaintyCoordinatingMultipleDesigns ConsultantdesignteamswithmultiplesubcontractorsROWAcquisitionandUtilityRelocationConstructionStagingManagementofTrafficContextSensitiveDesignEstimateUncertainty

Project B

Project A Project CProject A

Start End

Project C

Project D $$ }

Program

EstimateRisk

ProjectRiskRisk

ProfileEventRisk

ResultsInMoreRobustRiskManagement!

Response

Analysis

ProblemFocused

Identification

ResponseSolutionFocused

Analysis

Identification

?Response

? ?? ???Analysis

? Identification? ?

Id if Ri kIdentifyRiskCategories

(RBS)

BrainstormQualify/ RisksbyCategory

Qualify/PrioritizeRisk

PopulateRiskRegister

RiskCriticalFunctions

RiskCriticalFunctions

Function1

Ri k

Function2

Ri k

Function3

Ri k Risk1 Risk2 Risk3

Risk1 Risk2 Risk3

Risk1 Risk2 Risk3 Risk3 Risk3 Risk3

i iTeamBrainstorming

FunctionAnalysis:FocuseseffortintherightdirectionFacilitatestheprioritizationofrisksFacilitatesmanagementofprojectdelivery

DescribeRisks

IdentifyImpacts

EstablishPriorities

Identifyb b l

Runl ProbabilityAnalysis

IdentifyResponseStrategies

D l A ti S d Ri k DevelopActionPlans

SecondaryRiskAnalysis

IdentifyResponsibilitiesResponsibilities&Milestones

RiskObjectIdentification

BrainstormingofRiskResponseStrategiesbyFunction

SecondaryRiskAnalysis

Function

EvaluationofRiskResponse

DevelopmentofActionPlansforRi kR ResponseStrategiesRiskResponseStrategies

Avoid

ThreatResponseFunction

ResponseStrategy

Accept

Mitigate

T f

VerbTransfer

RiskDescription

ObjectofRisk Noun

ResponseStrategy Mitigatep gy g

P ibilit fPossibilityofencounteringconflictswithTransCanadian

Pipeline

PipelineConflicts

ResponseStrategy Avoidp gy

P ibilit fPossibilityofencounteringconflictswithTransCanadian

Pipeline

PipelineConflicts

E l it

OpportunityResponseFunction

ResponseStrategy

Exploit

Enhance

ShareVerb

RiskDescription

ObjectofRisk Noun

ResponseStrategy Exploitp gy p

ThereistheopportunityThereistheopportunitytorealizecostsavings

resultingfromreestimationof

quantities

Estimate

quantities

RiskResponseFunctions

Function1 Function2 Function3

Strategy1 Strategy2 Strategy3

Strategy1 Strategy2 Strategy3

Strategy1 Strategy2 Strategy3gy 3 gy 3 gy 3

i iTeamBrainstorming

Nextsteps:Nextsteps:PrioritizeriskresponsestrategiesD l d t il d ti lDevelopdetailedactionplansPerformsecondaryriskanalysisasneeded

RiskResponseStrategiesRiskResponseActionPlans

Ri k D i ti

L M H EV L M H EV1-48 Utility

Conflict Definition

Threat

80% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.04 0.00 1.00 2.00 0.80

RiskDescription

RiskID RiskName Type Description ProbabilityCost Schedule

There is confusion on the Domino Rd. project in terms of defining what a conflict is. Central office is saying that anything below the 18" subgrade is a conflict. This could result in a schedule delay as a result of disagreements between the contractors and the department.

L M H EV L M H EV

RiskResponseActionPlan

RiskResponseStrategies Probability

Cost Schedule

Primary Strategies:1. Settle on a definition now by getting key players involved2. Hold consensus building meeting to agree on definition

50% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.03 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.25

3. Add language to contracts to add clarity and specify4. On the design side, to avoid risk to DOT, follow the TRANS 220 processFallback Strategies:5. Pay for it6. Perform an early location through 3D layout of existing utilities (expensive)

RiskResponseActionPlan RiskOwner RiskReviewMilestone/FrequencyPrimary1. Setup meeting with key players to discuss and make final decision on the defention of a conflict. Prior to the meeting have Key playermeeting by end of Augustp g y p y gBobby Johnson talk to his chief counter parts to get input on this issue statewide. Identify who key player is. Who would be the DOT decision maker/voice in conflict scenario between Road Builders and DOT?2. Same as 1.3. Based on outcome for the conflict definition clarify in specs how to address. Make sure utilities are clear on what the requirments are for conflicts and ensure they convey that into future work plans. Clarify contractor vs. DOT vs utilty risk/responsability if issues are realized in the field. Cleary explain what the differences in risk/responsabilty are when trans 220 isn't followed to the tee.4. Continue tracking detailed shedules but determine what projects are at risk for not following trans 220. Then determine where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed

SallyJonesKeyplayermeetingbyendofAugust2011.Speclanguagedevelpedprior

toDecember1stPS&E.

BaseCostImpactsNeed to budget contingency to address additional costs if DOT takes risk of incurring all costs.

No real design costs but could incure constrution delays if contractor is unclear on how to address "a conflict" and refuses to proceed.

where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed.Fallback:5. Continue business as usual but take on the risk that DOT may incure delay costs and budget for those costs.6. Determine critical areas where multiple conficts are anticipated. Have detaild utiltiy identification/location done so it is clear where and how deep the facilities are to cleary identify possible conflicts in design.

BaseScheduleImpacts

FunctionAnalysis:AnchorsbrainstormingofresponsestrategiestofunctionsIncreasesquantityandqualityofresponse

istrategiesProvidesforamorerobustexplorationof

l tisolutions

CompileResultsofRiskAnalysis&

Workshop

CompileRiskEstablish&E Ri k CompileRiskManagementPlan

ExecuteRiskMonitoringandControlPlan

ProduceReportProduceReport

FunctionAnalysisEnhancesRiskManagement:FacilitatescommunicationImprovesunderstandingofprojectFocuseseffortoncriticalfunctionsandrisksImprovesquantityandqualityofresponsestrategiesResultsinrobustandmoredetailedactionplanswithmultiplecontingencies

TheBestValueresultswhenthenecessaryyfunctionstomeettherequiredperformanceatthelowestoverallcostandleastamountofdeliverytimeareperformedintheleastuncertainway.yPerformance,CostandScheduleareUncertainPerformanceincludesrequirementsandPerformanceincludesrequirementsandattributesRiskincostsanddurationsarecomprisedofpestimatingriskandeventrisk