CVS, PMI RMP, PMP, CCE/A - Value Analysis Value · PDF fileCSVA 2012 Conference Calgary,...

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Transcript of CVS, PMI RMP, PMP, CCE/A - Value Analysis Value · PDF fileCSVA 2012 Conference Calgary,...

  • CSVA2012ConferenceCSVA2012ConferenceCalgary Alberta CanadaCalgary Alberta CanadaCalgary,Alberta,CanadaCalgary,Alberta,Canada

    GregGregBrink,CVS,PMIBrink,CVS,PMIRMP,PMP,CCE/ARMP,PMP,CCE/A

  • BackgroundInformationFunctionDrivenRiskManagement(FDRM)g ( )ProcessRiskIdentificationRiskAnalysisRiskResponsePlanningRiskMonitoringandControl

    ConclusionsQ iQuestions

  • Wi DOTM WisDOTMegaProjectEff ti l Effectivelyaprogramconsistingofmultipleprojectsp j17milesfrom20092014inWinnebagoCCounty14milesfrom20102017inBrownCounty2017inBrownCounty

  • ManychallengescreatinguncertaintyCoordinatingMultipleDesigns ConsultantdesignteamswithmultiplesubcontractorsROWAcquisitionandUtilityRelocationConstructionStagingManagementofTrafficContextSensitiveDesignEstimateUncertainty

  • Project B

    Project A Project CProject A

    Start End

    Project C

    Project D $$ }

    Program

  • EstimateRisk

    ProjectRiskRisk

    ProfileEventRisk

    ResultsInMoreRobustRiskManagement!

  • Response

    Analysis

    ProblemFocused

    Identification

  • ResponseSolutionFocused

    Analysis

    Identification

  • ?Response

    ? ?? ???Analysis

    ? Identification? ?

  • Id if Ri kIdentifyRiskCategories

    (RBS)

    BrainstormQualify/ RisksbyCategory

    Qualify/PrioritizeRisk

    PopulateRiskRegister

  • RiskCriticalFunctions

  • RiskCriticalFunctions

    Function1

    Ri k

    Function2

    Ri k

    Function3

    Ri k Risk1 Risk2 Risk3

    Risk1 Risk2 Risk3

    Risk1 Risk2 Risk3 Risk3 Risk3 Risk3

    i iTeamBrainstorming

  • FunctionAnalysis:FocuseseffortintherightdirectionFacilitatestheprioritizationofrisksFacilitatesmanagementofprojectdelivery

  • DescribeRisks

    IdentifyImpacts

    EstablishPriorities

    Identifyb b l

    Runl ProbabilityAnalysis

  • IdentifyResponseStrategies

    D l A ti S d Ri k DevelopActionPlans

    SecondaryRiskAnalysis

    IdentifyResponsibilitiesResponsibilities&Milestones

  • RiskObjectIdentification

    BrainstormingofRiskResponseStrategiesbyFunction

    SecondaryRiskAnalysis

    Function

    EvaluationofRiskResponse

    DevelopmentofActionPlansforRi kR ResponseStrategiesRiskResponseStrategies

  • Avoid

    ThreatResponseFunction

    ResponseStrategy

    Accept

    Mitigate

    T f

    VerbTransfer

    RiskDescription

    ObjectofRisk Noun

  • ResponseStrategy Mitigatep gy g

    P ibilit fPossibilityofencounteringconflictswithTransCanadian

    Pipeline

    PipelineConflicts

  • ResponseStrategy Avoidp gy

    P ibilit fPossibilityofencounteringconflictswithTransCanadian

    Pipeline

    PipelineConflicts

  • E l it

    OpportunityResponseFunction

    ResponseStrategy

    Exploit

    Enhance

    ShareVerb

    RiskDescription

    ObjectofRisk Noun

  • ResponseStrategy Exploitp gy p

    ThereistheopportunityThereistheopportunitytorealizecostsavings

    resultingfromreestimationof

    quantities

    Estimate

    quantities

  • RiskResponseFunctions

    Function1 Function2 Function3

    Strategy1 Strategy2 Strategy3

    Strategy1 Strategy2 Strategy3

    Strategy1 Strategy2 Strategy3gy 3 gy 3 gy 3

    i iTeamBrainstorming

  • Nextsteps:Nextsteps:PrioritizeriskresponsestrategiesD l d t il d ti lDevelopdetailedactionplansPerformsecondaryriskanalysisasneeded

  • RiskResponseStrategiesRiskResponseActionPlans

    Ri k D i ti

    L M H EV L M H EV1-48 Utility

    Conflict Definition

    Threat

    80% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.04 0.00 1.00 2.00 0.80

    RiskDescription

    RiskID RiskName Type Description ProbabilityCost Schedule

    There is confusion on the Domino Rd. project in terms of defining what a conflict is. Central office is saying that anything below the 18" subgrade is a conflict. This could result in a schedule delay as a result of disagreements between the contractors and the department.

    L M H EV L M H EV

    RiskResponseActionPlan

    RiskResponseStrategies Probability

    Cost Schedule

    Primary Strategies:1. Settle on a definition now by getting key players involved2. Hold consensus building meeting to agree on definition

    50% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.03 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.25

    3. Add language to contracts to add clarity and specify4. On the design side, to avoid risk to DOT, follow the TRANS 220 processFallback Strategies:5. Pay for it6. Perform an early location through 3D layout of existing utilities (expensive)

    RiskResponseActionPlan RiskOwner RiskReviewMilestone/FrequencyPrimary1. Setup meeting with key players to discuss and make final decision on the defention of a conflict. Prior to the meeting have Key playermeeting by end of Augustp g y p y gBobby Johnson talk to his chief counter parts to get input on this issue statewide. Identify who key player is. Who would be the DOT decision maker/voice in conflict scenario between Road Builders and DOT?2. Same as 1.3. Based on outcome for the conflict definition clarify in specs how to address. Make sure utilities are clear on what the requirments are for conflicts and ensure they convey that into future work plans. Clarify contractor vs. DOT vs utilty risk/responsability if issues are realized in the field. Cleary explain what the differences in risk/responsabilty are when trans 220 isn't followed to the tee.4. Continue tracking detailed shedules but determine what projects are at risk for not following trans 220. Then determine where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed

    SallyJonesKeyplayermeetingbyendofAugust2011.Speclanguagedevelpedprior

    toDecember1stPS&E.

    BaseCostImpactsNeed to budget contingency to address additional costs if DOT takes risk of incurring all costs.

    No real design costs but could incure constrution delays if contractor is unclear on how to address "a conflict" and refuses to proceed.

    where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed.Fallback:5. Continue business as usual but take on the risk that DOT may incure delay costs and budget for those costs.6. Determine critical areas where multiple conficts are anticipated. Have detaild utiltiy identification/location done so it is clear where and how deep the facilities are to cleary identify possible conflicts in design.

    BaseScheduleImpacts

  • FunctionAnalysis:AnchorsbrainstormingofresponsestrategiestofunctionsIncreasesquantityandqualityofresponse

    istrategiesProvidesforamorerobustexplorationof

    l tisolutions

  • CompileResultsofRiskAnalysis&

    Workshop

    CompileRiskEstablish&E Ri k CompileRiskManagementPlan

    ExecuteRiskMonitoringandControlPlan

    ProduceReportProduceReport

  • FunctionAnalysisEnhancesRiskManagement:FacilitatescommunicationImprovesunderstandingofprojectFocuseseffortoncriticalfunctionsandrisksImprovesquantityandqualityofresponsestrategiesResultsinrobustandmoredetailedactionplanswithmultiplecontingencies

  • TheBestValueresultswhenthenecessaryyfunctionstomeettherequiredperformanceatthelowestoverallcostandleastamountofdeliverytimeareperformedintheleastuncertainway.yPerformance,CostandScheduleareUncertainPerformanceincludesrequirementsandPerformanceincludesrequirementsandattributesRiskincostsanddurationsarecomprisedofpestimatingriskandeventrisk