CSVA  2012 Conference CSVA  2012 Conference Calgary  Alberta  CanadaCalgary  Alberta  CanadaCalgary, Alberta, CanadaCalgary, Alberta, Canada

Greg Greg Brink, CVS, PMIBrink, CVS, PMI‐‐RMP, PMP, CCE/ARMP, PMP, CCE/A

Background InformationFunction Driven Risk Management (FDRM) g ( )ProcessRisk IdentificationRisk AnalysisRisk Response PlanningRisk Monitoring and Control

ConclusionsQ iQuestions

Wi DOT M  WisDOT Mega ProjectEff ti l      Effectively a program consisting of multiple projects p j17 miles from 2009‐2014 in Winnebago CCounty14 miles from 2010‐2017 in Brown County2017 in Brown County

Many challenges creating uncertainty Coordinating Multiple Designs▪ Consultant design teams with multiple subcontractors

ROW Acquisition and Utility RelocationConstruction StagingManagement of TrafficContext Sensitive DesignEstimate Uncertainty

Project B

Project A Project CProject A

Start End

Project C

Project D $$ }

Program

Estimate Risk

Project Risk Risk 

ProfileEvent Risk

Results In More Robust Risk Management!

Response

Analysis

Problem Focused

Identification

ResponseSolution Focused

Analysis

Identification

?Response

? ?????

Analysis

? Identification? ?

Id if  Ri k Identify Risk Categories 

(RBS)

Brainstorm Qualify /  Risks by Category

Qualify / Prioritize Risk

Populate Risk Register

Risk Critical Functions

Risk Critical Functions

Function 1

Ri k 

Function 2

Ri k 

Function 3

Ri k • Risk 1• Risk 2• Risk 3

• Risk 1• Risk 2• Risk 3

• Risk 1• Risk 2• Risk 3• Risk 3 • Risk 3 • Risk 3

i iTeam Brainstorming

Function Analysis:Focuses effort in the right directionFacilitates the prioritization of risksFacilitates management of project delivery

Describe Risks

Identify Impacts

Establish Priorities

Identify b b l

Run l ProbabilityAnalysis

Identify Response Strategies

D l  A ti  S d  Ri k  Develop Action Plans

Secondary Risk Analysis

Identify Responsibilities Responsibilities & Milestones

Risk Object Identification

Brainstorming of Risk Response Strategies by Function

Secondary Risk Analysis

Function

Evaluation of Risk Response 

Development of Action Plans for Ri k R   Response 

StrategiesRisk Response Strategies

Avoid

Threat Response Function

Response Strategy

Accept

Mitigate

T f

VerbTransfer

Risk Description

Object of Risk Noun

Response Strategy Mitigatep gy g

P ibilit   f Possibility of encountering conflicts with TransCanadian

Pipeline

Pipeline Conflicts

Response Strategy Avoidp gy

P ibilit   f Possibility of encountering conflicts with TransCanadian

Pipeline

Pipeline Conflicts

E l it

Opportunity Response Function

Response Strategy

Exploit

Enhance

ShareVerb

Risk Description

Object of Risk Noun

Response Strategy Exploitp gy p

There is the opportunity There is the opportunity to realize cost savings 

resulting from  re‐estimation of 

quantities

Estimate

quantities

Risk Response Functions

Function 1 Function 2 Function 3

• Strategy 1• Strategy 2• Strategy 3

• Strategy 1• Strategy 2• Strategy 3

• Strategy 1• Strategy 2• Strategy 3gy 3 gy 3 gy 3

i iTeam Brainstorming

Next steps:Next steps:Prioritize risk response strategiesD l  d t il d  ti   lDevelop detailed action plansPerform secondary risk analysis as needed

Risk Response StrategiesRisk Response Action Plans

Ri k D i ti

L M H EV L M H EV1-48 Utility

Conflict Definition

Threat

80% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.04 0.00 1.00 2.00 0.80

Risk Description

Risk ID Risk Name Type Description ProbabilityCost Schedule

There is confusion on the Domino Rd. project in terms of defining what a conflict is. Central office is saying that anything below the 18" subgrade is a conflict. This could result in a schedule delay as a result of disagreements between the contractors and the department.

L M H EV L M H EV

Risk Response Action Plan

Risk Response Strategies Probability

Cost Schedule

Primary Strategies:1. Settle on a definition now by getting key players involved2. Hold consensus building meeting to agree on definition

50% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.03 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.25

3. Add language to contracts to add clarity and specify4. On the design side, to avoid risk to DOT, follow the TRANS 220 processFallback Strategies:5. Pay for it6. Perform an early location through 3D layout of existing utilities (expensive)

Risk Response Action Plan Risk Owner Risk Review Milestone / FrequencyPrimary1. Setup meeting with key players to discuss and make final decision on the defention of a conflict. Prior to the meeting have Key playermeeting by end of Augustp g y p y gBobby Johnson talk to his chief counter parts to get input on this issue statewide. Identify who key player is. Who would be the DOT decision maker/voice in conflict scenario between Road Builders and DOT?2. Same as 1.3. Based on outcome for the conflict definition clarify in specs how to address. Make sure utilities are clear on what the requirments are for conflicts and ensure they convey that into future work plans. Clarify contractor vs. DOT vs utilty risk/responsability if issues are realized in the field. Cleary explain what the differences in risk/responsabilty are when trans 220 isn't followed to the tee.4. Continue tracking detailed shedules but determine what projects are at risk for not following trans 220. Then determine where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed

Sally JonesKey player meeting by end of August 2011.  Spec language develped prior 

to December 1st PS&E.  

Base Cost ImpactsNeed to budget contingency to address additional costs if DOT takes risk of incurring all costs.

No real design costs but could incure constrution delays if contractor is unclear on how to address "a conflict" and refuses to proceed.

where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed.Fallback:5. Continue business as usual but take on the risk that DOT may incure delay costs and budget for those costs.6. Determine critical areas where multiple conficts are anticipated. Have detaild utiltiy identification/location done so it is clear where and how deep the facilities are to cleary identify possible conflicts in design.

Base Schedule Impacts

Function Analysis:Anchors brainstorming of response strategies to functionsIncreases quantity and quality of response 

istrategiesProvides for a more robust exploration of 

l tisolutions

Compile Results of Risk Analysis & 

Workshop

Compile Risk Establish & E  Ri k  Compile Risk 

Management Plan

Execute Risk Monitoring and Control Plan

Produce ReportProduce Report

Function Analysis Enhances Risk Management:Facilitates communicationImproves understanding of projectFocuses effort on critical functions and risksImproves quantity and quality of response strategiesResults in robust and more detailed action plans with multiple contingencies

The Best Value results when the necessary yfunctions to meet the required performance at the lowest overall cost and least amount of delivery time are performed in the least uncertain way.  yPerformance, Cost and Schedule are UncertainPerformance includes requirements and Performance includes requirements and attributesRisk in costs and durations are comprised of pestimating risk and event risk