The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self · The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self...
28
The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self Jonathan Melnick, Ph.D. Senior Analyst Lux Executive Summit- Americas March 19, 2015
Transcript of The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self · The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self...
The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self
Jonathan Melnick, Ph.D.
Senior Analyst
Lux Executive Summit- Americas
March 19, 2015
Agenda
Wearables enter the ecosystem era
There are different levels of ecosystems
Ecosystems will need to work with one another
2
Agenda
Wearables enter the ecosystem era
There are different levels of ecosystems
Ecosystems will need to work with one another
3
Wearable computing has a long history
4
1810: First wristwatch- Queen of Naples/ Abraham-Louis Breguet
1500s: Wearable abacus
1961:Thorp Roulette computer
1975: Pulsar watch calculator
1500s- wearable computing
1960s- wearable electronics
2000s- connected devices
2003: Garmin Forerunner
2013: Google Glass
2013: Samsung Galaxy Gear
Connected devices play a key role in the quantified self
5
Activity tracking Jawbone, Fitbit, Misfit
Vital signs monitoring- Biovotion, Oxiton, AliveCor, Huneo
Infant monitoring- Fever smart, Sproutling
6
Key questions remain for wearables and the quantified self: What is the value of the connected device?
Key questions remain for wearables and the quantified self: What is the value of the data?
7
Nutrition Labeling and Information Act of 1990
CDC (top) and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases
U.S. Nutritional Labelling and Information Act of 1990 required labels on food as we know them today
Obesity and diabetes have continued to rise, even more steeply since then
Wearable ecosystems seek to add value to the devices and the data
8
1500s- wearable computing
1960s- wearable electronics
2000s- connected devices
2010s-wearable ecosystems
“Works with Nest”
Agenda
Wearables enter the ecosystem era
There are different levels of ecosystems
Ecosystems will need to work with one another
9
Three types of wearable ecosystems have evolved
10
Device
Data
Environment
Pebble is developing its own smartwatch ecosystem Pebble is a smartwatch with an electophoretic display
Compatible with iOS and Android Smartphones
User base of ~1 million
Funding history: 2012 $10 million Kickstarter
Lost Kickstarter title to Coolest Cooler ($13 million) in 2014
2015: Pebble Time Steel reclaimed record (~$19 million)
Launched Pebble App store in 2014 with 3rd party software developers
Notifications, Sports & Fitness, Tools & Utilities, Remotes, Daily, and Games as well as an area for Pebble Faces (aka watchfaces)
Partnering with other device developers like activity tracker developer Misfit Wearables
11
Smart watches still have a lot of separate operating systems, which require their own ecosystems
Pebble OS
Watch OS
Android Wear Sony four generations of its own OS before adopting Wear
Tizen
Qualcomm OS
12
Apple Watch
Moto 360
Asus Zenwatch
LG G Sony SmartWatch Qualcomm Toq Samsung Gear 2
Smart watches are just one form factor in connected devices
13
Torso • Chest Strap • Shirt • Sports bra • Dress • Belt • Vest
Anywhere • Agnostic device • Tattoo • Patch
Arms/hands • Watches • Bracelets • Armbands • Rings
Legs/feet • Insoles • Socks • Pants • Anklet • Leg strap • Shoe
accessory
Head/neck • Glasses/glasses
accessory • Hat/headband/h
elmet • Headset • Contact lenses • Necklace • Mouthguard
Saleforce had challenges introducing starter apps for wearables
14
Challenges faced: Platforms: Android, Tizen, C/C++, Unity3D, etc. with no clear winner
• Combining devices: can separate devices work in concert?
UI/UX: e.g. different displays
Data flow: Input/output vs. just output
Security/ identity: no lock screens, passwords, etc.
Google Glass Android Wear Samsung Gear 2
Pebble Myo Nymi
Data ecosystems aggregate users information
15
Device
Data
Environment
Data ecosystems enable tracking, sharing, and analyzing wearable data
16
Data ecosystems revolve around function and device compatibility Activity logging
• Sony Lifelog
Athletics
• Nike+
• UA
• Strava
• Ride with GPS
• Google Fit
Health/wellness
• Apple Health
• Samsung S health
• AT&T
Lifelog- entertainment, activity, and communication
Strava- running and cycling
Apple Health- activity and health
Nike+ is compatible with mostly Nike and Apple devices
17
Nike+ and NikeFuel Tracks and logs workouts and activity
Access larger data pools
Compare with friends
Limited device compatibility
Device
Data
Employers use wellness companies to lower premium costs
Employer
Wellness
Device
Employee
18
Insurance
Devices come from the wellness programs
Employer
Wellness
Device
Employee
19
Device
Data
Ecosystems develop on three levels
20
Device
Data
Environment
Works with Nest looks to control in and out of the house
2014: Google acquired Nest for $3.2 billion Jawbone: tracks when user is about to wake and adjusts temperature
Pebble: set and monitor thermostat
How will compatibility shake out with Apple’s Homekit?
What if you don’t use Pebble or Jawbone?
21
Agenda
Wearables enter the ecosystem era
There are different levels of ecosystems
Ecosystems will need to work with one another
22
Key question for wearable ecosystems: How will ecosystems converge and interact with each other?
23
1500s- wearable computing
1960s- wearable electronics
2000s- connected devices
2010s-wearable ecosystems
“Works with Nest”
Device
Data
Environment
Device integration: Freescale’s WaRP Wearable Reference Platform
Device component challenges: No standardization leads to lack of uniformity across different devices
Most developers use mobile components:
• Parts expensive in low volumes
• 12 to 18 month component turnover
Unlike other markets, it open sources its reference designs to target broad start-up community and portfolio approach of mid-sized companies
Freescale provides standardized motherboard and daughterboards for wearables
24
Data integration: Under Armour Record
25
Nov. 2013: $150 Million/ 20 million users
Feb. 2015: $475 Million/ 80 million users
Feb. 2015: $85 Million/ 20 million users UA Record- track fitness, compete with friends Currently works with “hundreds of devices” inc. Jawbone, Pebble, and Misfit
Partnered with HTC to develop devices for the UA Record
Key questions and takeaways
26
Device
Data
Environment
Ecosystem battles are coming, they are often brutal, but who will win?
There will be lots of data generated, who owns it?
Performance opportunities exist today, when will health come about?
There will be opportunity in forming and controlling your own ecosystem, but more in merging existing ecosystems
Alpha partners will need to push standardization, but also be able to divide revenue through the ecosystems
Wearables have enough diversity to avoid commoditization challenges of today’s mobile electronics, but competitive threats will come from far and wide
Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Jonathan Melnick, Ph.D. Senior Analyst [email protected] +1 617 502 5324
