The PROTHEUS - Joint Office for Science · PDF fileA Regional System for climate change...
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A Regional System for climate change assessment in the Mediterranean region: preliminary results. The PROTHEUS Group V. Artale 1 , X. Bi 2 , S. Calmanti 1 , A. Carillo 1 , A. Dell’Aquila 1 , F. Giorgi 2 , J. Pal 2 , G. Pisacane 2 , S. Rauscher 2 , P.M. Ruti 1 , G. Sannino 1 , M.V. Struglia 1 1) ENEA, Rome (Italy) 2) ICTP, Trieste (Italy) ABSTRACT Climate change assessment and impact studies demand realistic prediction of atmospheric fields, which can be either derived from global-scale simulations through down-scaling procedures, or obtained by running regional climate models which use global-scale fields as boundary conditions. In particular nested limited-area atmospheric models have proven their ability to resolve small features that are missed by large-scale simulations. At present fully coupled regional climate models are being developed, so that the interactions among the distinct components of the climate system (i.e. ocean, atmosphere, biosphere) are explicitly simulated. Such models are expected to improve our skill in predicting reliable scenarios in complex regions such as the Mediterranean area, which is subject both to the influence of global scale dynamics (e.g. disturbances in the mid-latitudes, strength and meridional extension of the Hadley circulation), and to the effects of local physical processes. We present a new regional system consisting of the RegCM (atmospheric model), the MITgcm (ocean model) and BATS (Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme), coupled via OASIS3. Preliminary simulations of the coupled system over the Mediterranean area are here discussed. 42 vertical levels 1/8°x1/8° horizontal resolution MITgcm Ocean: OASIS3 Coupler: BATS Land Surface: 18 vertical levels 30 Km horizontal resolution RegCM3 Atmosphere: Coupled Model Configuration The PROTHEUS System Interactive Runoff: Catchment basins of rivers falling in the Mediterranean sea reconstructed by using TRIP database AL MD VALIDATION: Present Climate Simulation • 40-year simulation driven by ERA40 reanalysis at BC • Comparison with : Stand-alone configuration of the atmospheric model RegCM3 (forced by GISS SST data ), ERA40 Reanalysis, Observational datasets. • Major results: Realistic features reproduced (atmospheric circulations, land surface climate, ocean SST, ocean surface circulations and air-sea fluxes ) The coupling does not affect the bulk characteristics of the atmospheric model The coupled model is capable of significantly improve the description of air-sea interactions in terms of sensible and latent heat, especially at small scales and for intense events Seasonal SST in GISS data and the PROTHEUS CPL simulation. Time series are for data spatially averaged over the whole MED Time series of temperature anomalies averaged over the entire Mediterranean basin, the Western basin and the Eastern Basins (from top to bottom). In the left panel averages on the entire water column, in the right panel averages on the interval 150-600 m. Model (solid line,) data from MEDATLAS II database (dotted line). PDF for monthly land-precipitation in CRU(Blu line) ERA40(green values), RCM-Stand Alone (black values) and PROTHEUS Coupled (red values) over MD and AL sub-areas ( Christensen and Christensen 2007) for different seasons. Time series of 2000 SST anomalies for the CPL simulation (red line) and satellite observations (black line). Values are averaged over the whole basin. 9-7 11-7 13-7 15-7 17-7 OISST PROTHEUS SST anomalies between 09/07/2000 and 17/07/2000 in CPL and in satellite observations Scenario Simulation • 1951-2050 simulation driven by ECHAM5-MPIOM at BC (20c3m for 1951-2000 and SRESA1B for 2001-2050) • Comparison with ECHAM5-MPIOM corresponding simulation • Major results: Upward trend in Surface Temperature detected in PROTHEUS simulation Trends in PROTHEUS significantly lesser than the corresponding one in the global simulation, especially over the sea and over mountain regions Strong seasonality in PROTHEUS E-P flux trend and, consequently, in river discharges Sea level height changes detected (steric sea level rise) DJF MAM JJA SON Surface Temperature PROTHEUS trend Difference PROTHEUS-ECHAM5 trend E-P FLUX PROTHEUS trend Difference PROTHEUS-ECHAM5 trend DJF MAM JJA SON Climatological Discharge Oceanic Temperature Oceanic Salinity Steric Sea Level Height Difference 2021-50 / 1961-90 Temperature Contribution Sea Level Height Salinity Contribution Sea Level Height MED Western Basin Eastern Basin Oceanic Global Driver: SST Difference 2021-50 / 1961-90 Oceanic Global Driver: SSS Difference 2021-50 / 1961-90 + INTERACTIVE RUNOFF Contact: [email protected]
Transcript of The PROTHEUS - Joint Office for Science · PDF fileA Regional System for climate change...
A Regional System for climate change assessment in the Mediterranean region: preliminary results.
The PROTHEUS Group V. Artale 1, X. Bi 2, S. Calmanti 1, A. Carillo 1, A. Dell’Aquila 1, F. Giorgi 2, J. Pal 2, G. Pisacane 2, S. Rauscher 2, P.M. Ruti 1, G.
Sannino 1 , M.V. Struglia 1 1) ENEA, Rome (Italy)
2) ICTP, Trieste (Italy)ABSTRACT
Climate change assessment and impact studies demand realistic prediction of atmospheric fields, which can be either derived from global-scale simulations through down-scaling procedures, or obtained by running regional climate models which use global-scale fields as boundary conditions. In particular nested limited-area atmospheric models have proven their ability to resolve small
features that are missed by large-scale simulations. At present fully coupled regional climate models are being developed, so that the interactions among the distinct components of the climate system (i.e. ocean, atmosphere, biosphere) are explicitly
simulated. Such models are expected to improve our skill in predicting reliable scenarios in complex regions such as the Mediterranean area, which is subject both to the influence of global scale dynamics (e.g. disturbances in the mid-latitudes, strength and meridional extension of the Hadley circulation), and to the effects of local physical processes.
We present a new regional system consisting of the RegCM (atmospheric model), the MITgcm (ocean model) and BATS (Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme), coupled via OASIS3.Preliminary simulations of the coupled system over the Mediterranean area are here discussed.
42 vertical levels1/8°x1/8° horizontal resolution
MITgcmOcean:
OASIS3 Coupler:
BATSLand Surface:
18 vertical levels 30 Km horizontal resolution
RegCM3Atmosphere:
Coupled Model Configuration
The PROTHEUS System
Interactive Runoff: Catchment basins of rivers falling in the Mediterranean sea reconstructed by using TRIP database
AL
MD
VALIDATION: Present Climate Simulation •40-year simulation driven by ERA40 reanalysis at BC
•Comparison with :
Stand-alone configuration of the atmospheric model RegCM3 (forced by GISS SST data ),
ERA40 Reanalysis,
Observational datasets.
•Major results:
Realistic features reproduced (atmospheric circulations, land surface climate, ocean SST, ocean surface circulations and air-sea fluxes )
The coupling does not affect the bulk characteristics of the atmospheric model
The coupled model is capable of significantly improve the description of air-sea interactions in terms of sensible and latent heat, especially at small scales and for intense events
Seasonal SST in GISS data and the PROTHEUS CPL simulation. Time series are for data spatially averaged over the whole MED
Time series of temperature anomalies averaged over the entire Mediterranean basin, the Western basin and
the Eastern Basins (from top to bottom). In the left panel averages on the entire water column, in the right panel averages on the interval 150-600 m. Model (solid line,) data from MEDATLAS II database (dotted line).
PDF for monthly land-precipitation in CRU(Blu line) ERA40(green values), RCM-Stand Alone (black values) and PROTHEUS Coupled (red values) over MD and AL
sub-areas ( Christensen and Christensen 2007) for different seasons.
Time series of 2000 SST anomalies for the CPL simulation (red line) and satellite observations (black line). Values are averaged
over the whole basin. 9-7 11-7 13-7 15-7 17-7
OISST
PROTHEUS
SST anomalies between 09/07/2000 and 17/07/2000 in CPL and in satellite observations
Scenario Simulation •1951-2050 simulation driven by ECHAM5-MPIOM at BC (20c3m for 1951-2000 and SRESA1B for 2001-2050)
•Comparison with ECHAM5-MPIOM corresponding simulation
•Major results:
Upward trend in Surface Temperature detected in PROTHEUS simulation
Trends in PROTHEUS significantly lesser than the corresponding one in the global simulation, especially over the sea and over mountain regions
Strong seasonality in PROTHEUS E-P flux trend and, consequently, in river discharges
Sea level height changes detected (steric sea level rise)
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Surface Temperature
PROTHEUS trend Difference
PROTHEUS-ECHAM5 trend
E-P FLUX
PROTHEUS trend Difference
PROTHEUS-ECHAM5 trend
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Climatological Discharge
Oceanic Temperature Oceanic Salinity
Steric Sea Level Height
Difference 2021-50 / 1961-90
Temperature Contribution Sea Level Height
Salinity Contribution Sea Level Height
MED
Western Basin
Eastern Basin
Oceanic Global Driver:
SST Difference 2021-50 / 1961-90
Oceanic Global Driver:
SSS Difference 2021-50 / 1961-90
+INTERACTIVE RUNOFF
Contact: [email protected]
