The Production Revolutions Theory and Forthcoming Technologies
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THE PRODUCTION REVOLUTIONS THEORY AND FORTHCOMING TECHNOLOGIES
©Anton L. Grinin, Leonid E. Grinin
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• The Agrarian (or Neolithic) • The Industrial • The Information‐Scientific
PRODUCTION REVOLUTIONS
Cybernetic
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PRODUCTION PRINCIPLES
• Hunter‐Gatherer • Craft‐Agrarian • Industrial • Information‐Scientific
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• The initial phase, when the advanced technologies are developed which later become widespread.
• The final phase of production revolution results in the flourishing of a new production principle.
PHASES OF PRODUCTION REVOLUTION
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Agrarian Revolution:
• The initial phase is the transition to primitive hoe agriculture and animal husbandry starting about 12–9 thousand years ago;
• The final phase is the transition to irrigation or non‐irrigation plough agriculture starting about 5.5 thousand years ago.
PHASES OF PRODUCTION REVOLUTION
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Industrial Revolution
• The initial phase is a vigorous development of seafaring and trade, mechanization on the basis of water engine and other processes in the 15th – 16th centuries.
• The final phase is the industrial breakthrough (the 1760s–1830s) connected with the introduction of various machines and steam energy.
PHASES OF PRODUCTION REVOLUTION
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Cybernetic Revolution
• The Initial phase (scientific‐informational epoch) which dates to the 1940s – 1990s.
• The final phase, which we call the epoch of controllable systems, will begin in the 2030–2040s and will last until the 2060–2070s.
PHASES OF PRODUCTION REVOLUTION
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THE EPOCH OF CONTROLLABLE SYSTEMS
• the value of this revolution after its completion lies in the ability to create systems of different levels that could be self‐controlled or indirectly controlled either through other systems or by means of point impact and corrections.
The revolution is called cybernetic because
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CYBERNETIC REVOLUTION
The revolution is called cybernetic because
• the main changes will take place including the rapid increase of opportunities to control various processes in different ways;
• the main vector of this revolution will be associated with a synthesis of principle characteristics of various systems which cybernetics deals with: the biological, social and technological ones.
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THE LEADING TRENDS OF THE CYBERNETIC REVOLUTION
• Biotechnologies• Human medicine• Nanotechnologies
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CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CYBERNETIC REVOLUTION
• Self‐regulation.• Individualization. • The resource and energy saving.• The development of the predetermined but previously non‐existent properties.
• Miniaturization.
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BIOTECHNOLOGY
• The production of nutritional supplements and medicines
• The genetic engineering • The cellular engineering • Cloning• Creating alternative energy resources
THE MAIN BIOTECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS ARE
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Fig. 1. GMO acreage world
INDIVIDUALIZATION IN BIOTECHNOLOGY
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Fig. 2. DNA Sequencer today
Fig. 3. DNA Sequencer tomorrow
INDIVIDUALIZATION IN BIOTECHNOLOGY
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CLONING
Fig. 4 The cloning of Dolly
INDIVIDUALIZATION IN BIOTECHNOLOGY
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SELFREGULATION IN BIOTECHNOLOGY
Fig. 5. Gene constructionhttp://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l_e/other/
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ENERGY AND RESOURCE SAVINGIN BIOTECHNOLOGY
• The biotechnological industry lowers the production costs significantly.
• A number of alternative energy resources are developed by means of biotechnologies, for example, bioethanol, biodiesel, biogas, biohydrogen etc.
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MEDICINE
• Pharmaceuticals;• Aesthetic medicine;• Fight against cureless diseases; • Implantation; • Reproductive medicine;• Gene therapy.
THE MOST DEVELOPING BRANCHES OF MEDICINE:
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INDIVIDUALIZATION IN MEDICINE
• AN INDIVIDUAL TREATMENT PROGRAM
• GENE THERAPY
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BIONICS
Fig. 6. Amanda Kitts using her bionic arm to squirt mustard
Fig. 7. Tim Hemmeswith the DARPA arm
INDIVIDUALIZATION IN MEDICINEhttp://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l_e/other/
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SELFREGULATION IN MEDICINE
Fig. 8. Biochip
Fig. 9. Da Vinci SHDI
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ENERGY AND RESOURCE SAVING
• The number of the produced medical products is constantly growing.
• The most precise diagnostic methods will give an opportunity to define the required concentrations and forms of medicines, thereby reducing the patient's expenses and reducing the price for the treatment.
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NANOTECHNOLOGIES
Fig. 10. The global market of nanotechnology ($ millions)http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l_e/other/
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INDIVIDUALIZATION IN NANOTECHNOLOGIES
• In medicine: biochips created on the biotechnological basis.
• Individualization in agriculture.
• Individualization in devices.
Fig. 11. Nokia Human Formhttp://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l_e/other/
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SELFREGULATION IN NANOTECHNOLOGIES
• The most important task for nanotechnologies is to make molecules or atoms to group in a self‐organized way and to produce new ones resistant to the changing conditions.
• One of the main conceptions of nanotechnology is from larger to smaller.
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Fig. 12. Nanocar by James Tour
SELFREGULATION IN NANOTECHNOLOGIES
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Fig. 13. Fullerene
Fig. 14. “Lotus effect”
SELFREGULATION IN NANOTECHNOLOGIES
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RESOURCE AND ENERGY SAVING
SOME EXAMPLES:
“Clever glass”
• Electronic paper
• Producing electricity through the organic matter destruction
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CONCLUSION
• All the trends of the Cybernetic revolution will be tightly interconnected and support each other.
• Revolution of controllable systems willoriginate in a narrow sphere.
• The final stage of the Cybernetic revolutionwill start at the intersection of medicine, biotechnology and gene engineering(probably with nanotechnologies).
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CONCLUSION• The general vector of the breakthrough can bedefined as a rapid growth of possibilities tocorrect or even modify the human biologicalnature itself .
• Among other results we can achieve a radical expansion of our opportunities to prolong life and improve its biological quality.
• It will take about two or three decades after the beginning of the Cybernetic revolution (in the 2030‐2040s) before a wide application takes place.
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Thank you for attention!
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