The Outlook for Energy...The Outlook for Energy A View to 2040 Stephen S.F. Wong President Greater...
Transcript of The Outlook for Energy...The Outlook for Energy A View to 2040 Stephen S.F. Wong President Greater...
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1A of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K or information set forth under "factors affecting future results" on the "investors" page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
The Outlook for EnergyA View to 2040
Stephen S.F. WongPresidentGreater China/Japan Gas Marketing
Oil & Gas Energy ForumTaipei, July 4, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Proprietary 2
Global Progress Drives Demand
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
BillionPopulation GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.9%
OECD
Non OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.9%
Energy Demand
Energy Saved ~500 QBTUs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 2040
0.9%
0.3%
1.5%
-0.9%
2.1%
4.4%
Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Proprietary 3
Global Energy Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By SectorQuadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Power Generation
Res/Comm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
1.6%
0.7%
-0.2%
2.2%
0.3%
5.3%
growth0.9%
0.1%
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
41%@‘40
27%
growth0.9%
Proprietary 4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2015 2040
Natural Gas Demand Grows in All Areas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2015 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 2015 2040
Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
By Region By Sector
Oil
Gas
Russia/Caspian
Asia Pacific
Africa
Latin America Industrial
PowerGeneration
Other
Transportation
Coal
Middle East
North America
Europe
Res/Comm
Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
2.1%
1.4%
0.9%
MTAMTA
Fastest AP growth @ 3.2%
growth1.6%
Proprietary 5
Natural Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
North America
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
Europe Asia Pacific
Conventional
Pipeline
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0.3%
12.5%
4.2%
1.9%
0.9%
-1.9%
3.0%
-2.2%
74%@‘40
25%
12%
28%
24%
36%
12%@‘40
26%
36%
24%
7.8%
MTA MTAMTAgrowth
3.2%
growth0.5%
growth0.7%
14%
LNG
LNG
Proprietary 6
AP Gas Demand Grows in all countries
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
1990 2015 2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 2040
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
By Country
Oil
Coal
Gas
Other
China
SEA Countries
India
Other AP Countries
Japan
Australia
Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
1.5%
2.0%
29%@‘40
32%
21%
18%
0.1%
5.0%
3.2%
2.0%
35%
16%
23%
2.3%
0.6%
5.0%
2.7%3.2%
MTAgrowth
3.2%
growth1.3%
Proprietary 7
LNG Market TransitionMTA • 2012 outlook for Global
LNG demand back to 2009/10 view
• Different prospect of regional LNG demand
• Negligible North America LNG demand, volumes originally destined for NA now going primarily to Asia
• Asia continues to have the most significant LNG demand
MTA MTA
MTA
May 2012Feb 2011Feb 2010Feb 2009Feb 2008
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Proprietary 8
ExxonMobil’s LNG Global Reach
Over 40 years of LNG experience; Interest in over 25% of world's capacity
SpainItaly Japan
JapanKorea
(1st LNG Sale)
Korea
Spain
Spain
India(1st LNG Sale)
Italy
Belgium
UK
France
USMexico
Korea
Taiwan
India
US
Japan
Taiwan
China
Gross MTA
Libya Arun ArunExp
QG RG QGDeb
RGExp
RGExp
RGExp
RGExp
QGII RLIII PNG Gorgon
AsiaEurope
Americas
India
China
Source: ExxonMobil in the LNG Business
Proprietary 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North America
Europe OECD
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
1.3
4.1
2.6
2.3
8.1
4.9
4.8
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
• World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
• Large unconventional gains anticipated
World
Russia/Caspian*
Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Global Gas Resources
Proprietary 10
Growing Unconventional Gas Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Unconventional
Conventional
Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
69%
31% 5.7%
0.7%
MTA growth1.6%
Proprietary 11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MTA EIA & IEA Global
Unconventional Production
IEA Tight Gas Production
IEA CBM Production
IEA Shale GasProduction
EIA UnconventionalGas Production
GeologicalUnderstanding
Physical, social or environmental
constraints
Resource productivity & capacity of service
industry
Governments’ experience,
knowledge & expectations
Infrastructure, contractual & political
limitations
Resourcesize
Resourceaccess
Extractiontechnology
Regulatoryframework
Marketaccess
Factors Determining the Viability of Natural Gas De velopments
Development&
production
Too small / uncertain
Inaccessible
Not technically or economically recoverable
Unable to secure regulatory approvals
Unable to achieve commercial price or
volume
Not developed
Factors influencing success and pace of development
play as great a role in determining unconventional
production as does the size of the resource endowment
Source: Adapted from IEA. World Energy Outlook 2011: Special Report –Are We Entering the Golden Age of Gas?
Unconventional Gas - Challenges
Proprietary 12
Kenai LNG (1.5 MTA)Final Conventional Cargo 2012
Participants: ConocoPhillips, Marathon
Other BC LNG Export ProjectsYet to apply for export approvals
1. Shell, KOGAS, Mitsubishi, PetroChina (~10 MTA)
2. Petronas, Progress (7.4 MTA)3. BG - Prince Rupert (?)
4. Nexen/Inpex (?)
Jordan Cove LNG (9 MTA)DOE FTA approval Dec ‘11;
Yet to apply for non-FTA/FERCParticipants: Veresen, Energy
Partners Development
Kitimat LNG (10 MTA)NEB export license Oct’11.BC O&G approval pending.Participants: Apache , EOG
Resources, Encana Corporation
Douglas Channel (1.8 MTA)NEB Export License Jan 2012BC O&G approvals pendingParticipants: LNG Partners
Cove Point LNG (7.8 MTA)DOE re-export approval Jan ‘12;
DOE FTA Oct ‘11;DOE non-FTA approval pending; Yet to
apply for FERC approvalParticipants: Dominion
Lake Charles LNG (15 MTA)DOE FTA approval July ‘11;
DOE non-FTA approval pending;Yet to apply for FERC approval
Participants: BG , Southern Union
Cameron LNG (12 MTA)DOE re-export approval Dec ‘10;
DOE FTA approval Jan ‘12, DOE non-FTA approval pending,
Yet to apply for FERC approvalParticipants: Sempra Energy
Sabine Pass LNG (16 MTA)DOE re-export approval Feb ‘09;
DOE FTA approval Sep ‘10;DOE non-FTA approval May ‘11;
FERC approval pendingParticipants: Cheniere
Corpus Christi (13.5 MTA)Yet to apply for DOE FTA and non-FTA
Export DOE Re-Export approval, or FERC approval
Participants: Cheniere
Gulf Coast LNG (21 MTA)DOE FTA/non-FTA under reviewYet to apply for FERC approval
Participants: Freeport LNG
Golden PassNo application for DOE FTA and non-
FTA Export DOE Re-Export approval, or FERC approval
Participants: Qatar Petroleum, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips
Freeport LNG (9 MTA)DOE re-export approval May ‘09;
DOE FTA approval Feb ‘11;DOE non-FTA and FERC approvals
pendingParticipants: Freeport LNGFreeport Expansion (9 MTA)
DOE FTA non-FTA approvals pendingYet to apply for FERC approval
Source: Wood Mackenzie; U.S. Department ofEnergy; Canada National Energy Board
Potential North American LNG Exports
Proprietary 13
Key Insights
• Global energy demand is expected to grow about 30% in 2040 compared to 2010
• OECD countries remain flat, economic growth offset by large efficiency gain
• Non-OECD will grow by ~60% due to economic and population growth
• Fossil fuels continue to provide about 80% of the world’s energy
• Demand for coal will peak and begin a gradual decline while the use of gas and renewables will grow significantly
• Strong growth in natural gas by more than 60% through 2040 overtaking coal being the second position behind oil
• Driven by power generation due to less emissions
• Demand from Asia Pacific will grow the fastest, account about 30% of global natural gas demand by 2040
• Estimates of global unconventional gas resources and production continue to grow
• Asia continues to be the premium LNG market with significant growing demand
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1A of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K or information set forth under "factors affecting future results" on the "investors" page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Stephen S.F. WongPresidentGreater China/Japan Gas Marketing
Oil & Gas Energy ForumTaipei, July 4, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
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