IEA Energy Efficiency 2018 and World Energy Outlook 2018 · World Energy Outlook 2018 • Global...
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© OECD/IEA 2018 IEA Energy Efficiency 2018 and World Energy Outlook 2018 Kevin Lane Brussels, 27 November 2018 IEA
Transcript of IEA Energy Efficiency 2018 and World Energy Outlook 2018 · World Energy Outlook 2018 • Global...
© OECD/IEA 2018
IEA Energy Efficiency 2018 and World Energy Outlook 2018 Kevin Lane
Brussels, 27 November 2018
IEA
2 © OECD/IEA 2018
World Energy Outlook 2018
• Global trends, outlooks - Fuel (Oil, gas, coal) - Energy efficiency and renewables
• Based on scenarios to 2040 - Simulation model, detailed data - Current Policy Scenario (CPS) - New Policy Scenario (NPS) - Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)
• Special focus on electricity - Outlook supply, demand - Alternative Future is Electric Scenario (FES)
• Report available, and some findings at: www.iea.org/weo2018
3 © OECD/IEA 2018
Energy Efficiency 2018
• Global trends and outlooks - Energy intensity and efficiency trends - Policy progress and trends - Introduction to efficient world scenario - IEA Efficient World Strategy
• Sector chapters - Transport, Buildings and Industry
• Investment finance and business models
• Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa
• Available for free from www.iea.org/efficiency2018
4 © OECD/IEA 2018
Recent trends in energy efficiency
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Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, the fastest rise this decade, driven by economic growth and changes in consumer behaviour.
Change in global primary energy demand, 2011-17
2017 saw a resurgence in global demand growth
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
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Global primary energy intensity improved in 2017, but at the slowest rate this decade. The rate of global improvement would have been worse if not for continuing gains in China.
Annual change in global primary energy intensity, 2011-17
Global energy intensity is improving at a slower rate
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global Global without China
Source: Adapted from IEA (forthcoming), World Energy Outlook 2018; IEA (2018c) World Energy Statistics and Balances 2018 (database)
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Energy intensity is improving across major economies, but the rate of change and relationship to energy demand varies.
Primary energy demand, GDP and energy intensity in selected economies, 2000-17
Energy use and intensity trends differ by country and region
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The impacts of energy efficiency are already significant
Energy efficiency improvements since 2000 prevented 12% more energy use and emissions in 2017.
Global final energy use and emissions with and without energy efficiency improvements, 2000-17
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Why is energy use on the rise?
Global energy efficiency is improving, but its impact is being overwhelmed by factors that create more demand for energy.
Decomposition of final energy use in the world’s major economies
Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
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100 150 200 250 300 350
2000 energy use More buildings and appliances
Less efficient transport patterns
Increased activity Shifts in economic activity
Improvements in energy efficiency
2017 energy use
EJ
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Growth in building sector energy use is linked to increasing floor space and appliance ownership. Space heating is driving savings across all building types.
Decomposition of buildings global final energy use, 2000-17 (left) and end-use contribution to efficiency savings (right)
Buildings sector energy use is continuing to rise
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Sources: Adapted from IEA (2018a), Energy Efficiency Indicators 2018 (database) and IEA Energy Technology Perspectives Buildings model (www.iea.org/etp/etpmodel/buildings/).
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Energy efficiency policy trends
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Nearly 34% of global energy use in 2017 was covered by mandatory energy efficiency policies. A 1.1% increase on levels in 2016
Annual additions to the global coverage of mandatory energy efficiency policies, 2013-17
Coverage is growing slowly
28% 30% 32% 34%
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Existing policies New policies
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Strength is an important indicator of the impact that mandatory policies could have. In the past two years, policies have been strengthened at a slower rate than preceding years.
Annual changes in mandatory policy strength, 2000-17
Coverage is just the first part of the policy story
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Nearly 18% of global energy use is captured by a utility obligation. However, the implementation of new policies has slowed, with few new or strengthened policies in the last few years.
Coverage of energy utility obligations, by country/region
Obligation schemes have become a common policy tool
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
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World Energy Outlook 2018 New Policy Scenario: What we expect to happen with current and expected policies Sustainable Development Scenario: To meet climate and SDG goals
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Energy context
• Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy: - Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility - Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’ - Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a
push - Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in
2018 - For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion
• Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate
• Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures & how they come about. The WEO provides two key scenarios:
- New Policies Scenario - Sustainable Development Scenario
17 © OECD/IEA 2018
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Energy demand
In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
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By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
The new geography of energy
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Oil
Advanced economies
Developing economies
Gas
Advanced economies
Developing economies
The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvements in energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns
Coal
Advanced economies
Developing economies
Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040
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Fuelling the demand for energy
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All sources of flexibility
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Flexibility: cornerstone of tomorrow’s systems
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017
Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver investment in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response
Integration phase
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Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2030
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What if the future is electric?
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Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation
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Sustainable Development Scenario
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Increased room room to manoeuvre
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Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
Can we unlock a different energy future?
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An Efficient World Scenario
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What does a more efficient world look like?
• The world is missing opportunities to improve energy efficiency, policy is not delivering the full potential gains that are available with current technology.
• What is possible with greater efforts on energy efficiency? The IEA’s new Efficient World Scenario answers the question:
What would happen by 2040 if countries realised all the economically viable energy efficiency potential that is available today?
The Economy The Energy System
The Environment
24 © OECD/IEA 2018
There is significant cost-effective savings potential in every sector
Only one third of the potential cumulative energy savings from efficiency gains by 2040 are realised in the NPS.
The majority of potential across all sectors is realised in the EWS.
Cumulative energy savings in NPS and additional potential in the EWS to 2040
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The adoption of all cost-effective energy efficiency measures between now and 2040 could see energy use fall by 16% compared to the NPS. Emissions would fall by over 10% compared to current levels.
Energy use and emissions in the Efficient World Scenario and New Policies Scenario
Global final energy use and emissions would be vastly different
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In the Efficient World Scenario, energy intensity will improve by around 3% per year, a step-up from current levels, resulting in minimal increases in energy demand, despite the global economy doubling.
Global primary energy demand, GDP and intensity, historically and in the EWS, 2000-40
Energy intensity improvements will accelerate
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Primary energy demand GDP Energy intensity Primary energy demand (EWS) GDP (EWS) Energy intensity (EWS)
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Energy productivity can more than double, from USD 9000 to USD 18 000 of GDP for every tonne of oil equivalent of energy demand.
Doubling global GDP for a marginal increase in energy demand
Now 2040
GDP
Energy demand
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Efficiency bring benefits to all levels of the economy
The Efficient World Scenario also fully delivers the energy efficiency target (Target 7.3) of the UN Sustainable Development Goals
USD 700 billion
Avoided energy imports in the EU, China and India
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Avoided energy expenditure in
industry
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Avoided household energy spending
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Efficiency would deliver immediate environmental benefits
The EWS results in an early emissions peak and over 40% of the abatement required by 2040 to be in line with Paris targets. Energy efficiency is essential to achieving global climate targets.
Greenhouse emissions in the NPS and EWS, 2000-40 (left) and air pollutant emissions in the EWS, 2015-40 (right)
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Buildings energy use has been rising, but could stay flat to 2040, despite 60% more floor space. Buildings energy intensity has been improving at 1.6% per year, but this could be 2.2% per year.
Buildings energy use and energy intensity, 2000-40
Buildings energy intensity has been improving
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The IEA’s Efficient World Strategy shows where policy action must focus
The EWS opportunity Key policy actions
Transport
• Energy demand could stay flat, despite doubling activity levels.
• Passenger cars and trucks offer two-thirds of potential savings.
• Stronger and broader policies for cars and trucks and non-road modes.
• Provide incentives to support uptake and sustainable use of efficient vehicles.
Buildings
• Building space could increase by 60% for no additional energy use.
• Space heating, cooling and water heating offer 60% of savings.
• Efficiency policies, targeting both new and existing building stock and appliances.
• Incentives to encourage adoption of efficient appliances and deep energy retrofits.
Industry
• Value-added per unit of energy could double.
• Less energy-intensive industry offers 70% of potential savings.
• Standards for key industrial equipment, including electric heat pumps and motors.
• Incentives to encourage the adoption of energy management systems.
32 © OECD/IEA 2018
Concluding remarks
• Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, and CO2 emissions rose by 1.4% after three years of being flat.
• The IEA EWS shows a 2040 world with double GDP, 20% more people and 60% more building space, with lower emissions than today
• Efficiency can reduce air pollution, imports and consumer bills, and EWS maps out the path to delivering the UN SDG on energy efficiency
• The efficiency opportunities are cost-effective and use only technology available today, but require a significant step up in policy action
• Investments need to double now and double again after 2025, but these investments will payback threefold on energy savings alone
• There are good examples today of all the policies required for tomorrow. These form the basis for increased ambition and impact.
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www.iea.org IEA
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Energy efficiency and renewables account for 80% of the cumulative CO2 emission reduction in the SDS
Emissions in the New Policies Scenario and Sustainable Development Scenario
The EWS is the efficiency component of the SDS scenario (2017)
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Key messages
• Global energy demand rose by nearly 2% in 2017, and CO2 emissions rose by 1.4% after three years of being flat.
• Energy efficiency improvements are enhancing productivity and reducing emissions, but policy action is weakening.
• Expectation is increasing global energy consumption and emissions
• The Efficient World Scenario sees global GDP double between now and 2040 with emissions lower than today, and large savings in air pollution and energy costs.
• The IEA sets out an Efficient World Strategy that, through cost-effective measures and available technologies, unlocks the untapped potential for energy efficiency.
36 © OECD/IEA 2018
The IEA’s new Efficient World Scenario shows that global energy intensity improvements could average 2.9% per year to 2040, a 75% increase on levels observed in 2017.
Global energy intensity improvement in the in the Efficient World Scenario, 2017-40
A lot of energy efficiency potential remains untapped
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