The Outlook for Energy - Stanford University · ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy Energy Fuels...
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1 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2015. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com . This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Lynne Taschner October 2016
Transcript of The Outlook for Energy - Stanford University · ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy Energy Fuels...
1
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2015. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040
Lynne TaschnerOctober 2016
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
2014 2040
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
2014 2040
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
2014 2040
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
2014 2040
Global Trends Continue to Evolve
GDP
PopulationDemand
Carbon Emissions
Percent
Growth from 2014 Level
3
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Key Energy Outlook Themes
Energy is fundamental to standards of living.
Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards.
Oi l remains the world’s primary fuel through 2040.
Natural gas grows more than any other energy source.
Economics and policies impact the fuel mix.
Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty.
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Energy Fuels Human Development
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
10 100 1000 10000
U.N. Human Development Index
2013 Index
Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates
Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)
NorwayUnited States
Brazil
Germany
Niger
India
China
Nigeria
Bangladesh
5
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations
2014
$72 Trillion (2010$)
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Brazil
Mexico
South
Africa
Nigeria
Saudi
Arabia
Indonesia
Thailand
Egypt
China
India
Turkey
Iran
OECD*China
India
Key
Growth
Rest of
World
6
ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations
2014
2040
$72 Trillion (2010$)
~$150 Trillion (2010$)
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
2.0%
per year
5.0%
5.5%
3.5%
3.4%
OECD*China
India
Key
Growth
Rest of
World
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
OECD* China India KeyGrowth
ROW
PPP 2011$k
Standards of Living Increase in the Non OECD
2040 GDP per Capita
2014
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind/ Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
Global Demand
2040 By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2014 - 2040
0.9%2014
0.7%
1.6%
2.9%0.3%
4.8% 1.3%
-0.2%
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Natural gas growsmore than any otherenergy source.
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
201020252040 201020252040 201020252040 201020252040
Other Renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Primary Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10
‘25
‘40
Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity
Generation
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Natural Gas Supply
Natural Gas Resources*
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2040
Cumulative
Production
through 2040
Remaining
Resource
Thousand TCF
* Source: IEA
0
200
400
600
2000 2020 2040
Unconventional
Conventional
By Production Type
BCFD
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
Remaining Global Gas Resource
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
World
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
4.2
North America
2.9
Latin America
1.3
Europe
OECD
3.5
Africa
4.2
Middle East
6.5
Russia/
Caspian*
5.0
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA; YE 2014 *Includes Europe Non OECD
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0000000
30
60
90
120
150
180
Gas Trade Balance by Region
North
America
Latin
America
Europe Russia/
Caspian
Africa Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
BCFD
‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20
Demand
Unconventional Production
Conventional Production
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0
200
400
600
2000 2020 2040
Natural Gas Supply
0
200
400
600
2000 2020 2040
By Delivery Type
BCFD
Unconventional
Conventional
By Production Type
BCFD
Pipeline
Net Local Production
LNG
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Africa Europe Russia/Caspian
MiddleEast
AsiaPacific
By Region and Supply Type
Gas Demand
BCFD
LNG Imports
Pipeline Imports
Local Unconventional Production
Local Conventional Production
‘10
‘40‘25
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0
30
60
90
Europe AsiaPacific
Rest ofWorld
0
30
60
90
Russia/Caspian
NorthAmerica
AsiaPacific
MiddleEast
Africa Rest ofWorld
Gas Trade
Exports by Region
BCFD
‘10
‘25
‘40
Imports by Region
BCFD
China
‘10
‘25
‘40
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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2014 20400
10
20
30
40
2000 2020 2040
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
Billion Tonnes
CO2 Emissions PlateauEnergy Mix Shifts to Lower-Carbon Fuels
India
Key Growth
Rest of World
OECD*
China
Global Energy Mix
Percent
Oil
Coal
Gas
Biomass
Renewables
Nuclear
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
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