The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ

materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and

under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes

ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the

International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

The Outlook for Energy

a view to 2030

William M. Colton

NARUC

November 15, 2011

ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook

100 countries

15 demand

sectors

20 fuel

types

Energy Outlook Basis

technology & policy


0

5

10

15

20

1980 2005 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1980 2005 2030

Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1980 2005 2030

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Savings ~300

Energy Demand

Average Growth / Yr.

2005 – 2030

1.2%

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 2005 2030

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion

Population GDP Trillion 2005$


2005 – 2030

0.9%


2005 – 2030

2.8%


0

150

300

450

1980 2005 2030

0

150

300

450

1980 2005 2030

Expansion Economies Drive Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

United States

Europe OECD

Other

Quadrillion BTUs

Non OECD

China

India

Middle East

Other

Latin America

Africa


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Growth Energy Savings

167

300

Power Generation Leads Growth

Quadrillion BTUs

1.3%

0.9% AAGR

0.3%

1.7%

Transportation

2005

2030


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar,

Biofuels

0.7%

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

0.7% AAGR

2.0%

0.4% 2.3%

2.1% 9.9%

World Average Growth/Yr.

’05 to ’30 – 1.2%

2005

2030


0

5

10

15

20

United

States

Europe

OECD

China India

0

10

20

30

40

1980 2005 2030

CO2 Emissions Moderate

Tons per Person Emissions per Capita

2005

2010

2030

Billion Tons By Region

OECD

Other Non OECD

India

China


0

10

20

30

1980 2005 2030

0

10

20

30

1980 2005 2030

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

k TWh By Sector

Transportation

Heavy Industry

Other

Industry

Residential

Commercial

By Region k TWh

Non OECD

OECD


Power Generation Mix Evolves

0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind

$0/ton CO2

2010 cents/kWh Baseload, Startup 2025


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 2005 2030

k TWh By Generation

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas

Power Generation Mix Evolves

0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind

$0/ton CO2

2010 cents/kWh Baseload, Startup 2025

$60/ton CO2


U.S. Changing Power Generation Fuel Mix

Electricity Demand kTWhrs, Net Delivered

Coal

Wind & Solar

Other Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil


Combined resources of 28,600 TCF are equal to 250 years of current production

Source: IEA 2011 World Outlook

Global Gas Resources


Shale Gas Production

• Shale gas is produced through hydraulic fracturing of low permeability rock

• Groundwater supplies are protected by thousands of feet of impermeable geologic layers and well casing design

• Hydraulic fracturing has been used globally since the 1940s in over 1 million wells

• Unconventional gas accounts for well over 50% of US natural gas production by 2030

Source: American Petroleum Institute and EIA


Gas – U.S. and Global Energy Solution

1. Abundant energy resource available to power economic growth

2. Lowest cost alternative for substantial emission reductions right now

− Electricity from natural gas produces 60% lower emissions than coal

− Negligible SO2, NO2, mercury versus other hydrocarbons

− No intermittency issues

− Gas power plants can be permitted and built relatively quickly

3. New jobs, new sources of tax revenue, supports domestic industries

Higher gas use depends on appropriate policy development


Development Challenges and Solutions

8 billion people

100% increase in global GDP

35% increase in energy demand

300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency

A diverse mix of affordable fuels to

enhance energy security

World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow

Mitigate

Emissions

Expand

Supply

Increase

Efficiency

Technology

The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030

Documents

Transcript of The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030