The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 · · 2018-03-15ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy...

on March 16, 2018 (13:30-15:30)

PTT Auditorium, 2nd Floor, PTT Building 1

Public Lecture:

By

Lynne Taschner, Energy Advisor

Corporate Strategic Planning Department, ExxonMobil

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy‹#›

2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand,

supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information

from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout

2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including

energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic

regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions,

technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors

discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website

at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil

Corporation. All rights reserved.

Asia Pacific Energy Outlook Tour

March 2018

ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for EnergyExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Global trends continue to evolve

+1.7 billion

people

2x

GDP

+25%

demand

+10%

CO2 emissions

-45%

CO2 intensity

Percent

Growth from 2016 level 2016

3

2018 Outlook for Energy

FundamentalsWhat will the world’s energy picture look like in the future?

4


Energy supports living standards

2016 Electricity demand per capita

kWh per person

2016 GDP per capita

Thousands of PPP dollars

Half of World population

Population

5


GDP

Trillion 2010$

OECD

Non-OECD

Non-OECD leads economic expansion

GDP growth

Trillion 2010$

Europe

United

States

China

Other

AP

Africa

India

1.9%

AAGR

4.1%

AAGR

6

ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for EnergyExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy 7

Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)

2040 Percentage Urban

0-50%

50-75%

75-100%

2010 City – 10 million +

2040 City – 10 million +

Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates


Purchasing power expands

Thousand PPP$

GDP per capita

United States

Europe OECD

China

World

India

Other AP Non-OECD

Global middle class

Billion people

Latin America

Europe

Asia Pacific

North America

Source: The Brookings Institution

Africa/Middle East

Africa

8



Demand

Global energy demand will continue to rise through 2040,

reflecting its fundamental link to expanding prosperity and

better living standards for a growing population worldwide.

9


Developing Economies Dominate Growth

0

250

500

750

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

Rest of World

India

China

Other AP Non-OECD

Quadrillion BTUs

Demand by Region


Energy demand varies by sector

End-use energy demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Primary energy demand

Quadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Elec/Mkt Heat

Wind/Solar

Hydro/Geo

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Liquids‘16

‘25

‘40

Transportation Res/CommIndustrial

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

201620252040Electricity Generation

‘16

‘25

‘40

11


Rising prosperity lifts chemicals energy demand

Chemicals demand by region

Quadrillion BTUs

Fuel

Feedstock

Mature Regions China Rest of Asia Pacific Rest of World

Emerging Markets

Asia

Pacific

OECD

Europe

Russia/

Caspian

North

America

India

Other

Asia

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

12


Industry undergirds global economic expansionHeavy industry migrates to emerging markets

Quadrillion BTUs

China

Mature Regions

Rest of Asia Pacific

Rest of World

Heavy industry evolves toward cleaner fuels

Growth in Quadrillion BTUs

Mature Regions China Rest of Asia Pacific Rest of World

Emerging Markets

Electricity/Market heat

Gas

Oil

Other Coal

13


0

25

50

75

2000 2020 2040

0

10

20

30

OECD China India Other APNon-OECD

Rest ofWorld

Sector Demand

MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

14

Transportation Demand

Demand by Region

MBDOE

‘40‘25‘16

U.S.

Commercial


Global fleet increases and diversifies

Fleet by type

Million cars

Gasoline

Diesel

Natural gas/LPG

Full hybrid

Electric/Plug-in/

Fuel cell

Efficiency curbs demand growth

MBDOE

15


Policy and consumer choices impact demand

Electric vehicles grow rapidly

Million cars

Battery

electrics

Plug-in

hybrids

Liquids demand remains resilient

MBDOE

Total liquids

demand

Light-duty liquids

demand

Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base

Outlook

16


0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 2010 2040

Electricity Demand by Region

Thousand TWh

United States

India

Europe

China

OtherAsia Pacific

2016

17

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

Electricity Net Delivered by Type

Thousand TWh

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

OtherRenewables

Gas

Wind & Solar


Renewables and gas capture growth

Change in net delivered electricity 2016-2040

Thousand TWh Share of TWh

Wind / Solar share of delivered electricity

North

America

Europe Asia

Pacific

Middle

East

Africa World

Wind

Solar

Solar capacity Wind capacity

'16

'40

18


Electricity generation by region highlights diversity

Net delivered electricity

'16

'40

Wind/Solar

Other renewables

'25

Nuclear

Gas

Coal Oil

Thousand TWh

19


Policy and technology choices impact outcome

Gas demand from electricity generation

BCFD

Middle East

Africa

North America

Europe

Other Asia Pacific

China

India

Latin America

Russia/Caspian

Higher wind/solar

penetration

Lower nuclear/

coal use

Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base

Outlook

20


Global Demand

2040 by fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2016 - 2040

0.9%

2016

0.7%

1.3%

-0.1%

1.6%

Nuclear

Biomass

Solar / Wind /

Biofuels

Hydro / Geothermal

21



SupplyWhat resources will be available to meet the world’s

increasing demand for more energy?

22


Liquids Supply

MBDOE

World Supply by Type

0

40

80

120

2000 2020 2040

Other Liquids

Biofuels

Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

New ConventionalCrude and Condensate

Development

0

40

80

120

2000 2020 2040

By Region

MBDOE

Other Non-OPEC

North America

Russia

OPEC


Gas supply highlights regional diversity

Gas demand by supply type

BCFD

Local unconventional production

Local conventional production

Net

imports

Pipeline imports

Net

exports

North

America

Latin

America

Africa Europe Russia/

Caspian

Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

Total production

LNG imports

Share of growth 2016-2040 Supply type Production

.

'16 '40 '25 '00

24


Asia Pacific Natural Gas Demand and Supply

0

50

100

150

2000 2020 2040

Electricity Generation

Industrial

Res/Comm

Transportation

BCFD

Demand by Sector

0

50

100

150

2000 2020 2040

India

Demand by Country

China

Rest of AP

BCFD

0

50

100

150

2000 2020 2040

Local Conventional

Pipeline

LNG

BCFD

Supply by Type

SE Asia

Japan

Korea

Local Unconventional


Climate/Energy policy

Gas import diversityClimate/Energy

policy

Fuel supply diversity

Air quality management

Climate/Energy policy

Air quality management

Chemical feed

Backfill declining

gas production

LNG trade grows and diversifies

Europe and Asia Pacific dominate LNG imports

BCFD

Europe

Japan/Korea/

Taiwan/Singapor

e

China

India

Other Asia Pacific

Rest of World

Asia Pacific

Growth

26


LNG trade grows and diversifies

Europe and Asia Pacific dominate LNG imports

BCFD

Europe

Japan/Korea/

Taiwan/Singapor

e

China

India

Other Asia Pacific

Rest of World

Asia Pacific

Growth

Abundant gas supplies underpin new LNG exports

BCFD

Asia Pacific

Middle East

North America

Africa

Rest of World

27



EmissionsThe dual challenge of providing reliable, affordable energy to

support prosperity and enhance living standards is coupled

with the need to do so in ways that reduce impacts on the

environment, including the risks of climate change. This is a

challenge we take seriously.

28


Energy mix shifts to lower-carbon fuels

Global energy mix

Percent

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind/Solar

Other renewables

Oil

Energy-related CO2 emissions peak

Billion tonnes

North America

Europe

China

Other Asia Pacific

Russia/Caspian

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

29


Restraining energy-related CO2 emissions

Energy-related CO2 emissions

Billion tonnes

2000 GDP

growth

CO2

intensity

Energy

efficienc

y

2016 GDP

growth

CO2

intensity

Energy

efficienc

y

2040

30


Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix

Primary energy demand

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

Unconventional Gas

Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil

Quadrillion BTUs



Energy mattersAs the world’s population approaches 9 billion people in 2040,

we are challenged to help improve living standards

everywhere. We expect that progress will be powered by

human ingenuity and the energy that helps make better lives

possible.

32


Energy powers modern economies and

living standards

Global energy needs rise about 25%, led by

non-OECD nations

Electricity demand nearly doubles in non-

OECD nations

Electricity from solar and wind increases

about 400 percent

Natural gas expands role to meet a wide

variety of needs

Oil plays a leading role to aid mobility and

modern products

Decarbonization of the world’s energy

system will accelerate

33


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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 · · 2018-03-15ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy...

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