Sweden Energy Outlook

SwedenCloser Look

The greater coat of arms of Sweden

Sweden population 2001-2015

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Population of Sweden has been rising slowly but steadily

Sweden economy energy intensity 2001-2012M

J/$2

011

PPP

GD

P

0

1,75

3,5

5,25

7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: World Bank

Swedish economy’s (without international trade) energy intensity has been

improving markedly in this century.

Sweden Energy Overview

Situation in early 2016

At current low electricity prices of ~20 euros / MWh in Sweden, no unsubsidised energy investments are possible.

Electricity prices are roughly equal to operation costs of current nuclear fleet.

Additional tax of ~7 euros / MWh on nuclear push nuclear below profitability, and with necessary investments needed,

threaten to close them.

Most nuclear reactors in Sweden are majority-owned by Vattenfall, which is 100 % state owned utility company.

The state’s tax on nuclear is killing a state owned company, and making it’s assets worthless.

Sweden electricity mix - 2015

4 %

4 %

11 %

47 %

34 %

Nuclear Hydro Wind CHP Industry CHP district heat

Source: Swedish Energy Authority

Sweden electricity mix 2001-2015TW

hs /

year

0

45

90

135

180

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hydro Nuclear Wind CHP industrial CHP district heating


Sweden electricity mix 2001-2021 with current planned nuclear closures - all other at 2015 levels

0

45

90

135

180

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Hydro Nuclear Wind CHP industry CHP district heating

Note: In 2015, most of the older nuclear plants were down on maintenance Source: Swedish Energy Authority

Sweden hypotetical electricity mix with Vattenfall nuclear closures up to 2021 - all other at 2015 levels

0

45

90

135

180

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Hydro Nuclear Wind CHP industry CHP district heating


Sweden hypotetical electricity mix with total nuclear closure up to 2021 - all other at 2015 levels

0

45

90

135

180

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021Hydro Nuclear Wind CHP industry CHP district heating

Note: It is somewhat unlikely that Uniper would keep a sole reactor (O3) running in Sweden if Vattenfall closes all of the others, even though electricity price would likely rise Source: Swedish Energy Authority

Sweden electricity net exports (+) and imports (-) 2001-2015

TWhs

-15

-7,5

0

7,5

15

22,5

30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Imports

Exports


TWhs

of i

mpo

rts o

r exp

orts

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

No further closures, reactors now down brought online, except O2Old nukes close: O1, O2, R1 and R2All Vattenfall nukes close: + R3, R4, F1-3All nukes close: Uniper also closes O3

Sweden exports - simplified forecast with nuclear closure - Other generation and demand remains at 2015 levels

Source: Swedish Energy Authority / Forecast is an approximation

Economic consequences of early nuclear phaseout.

Moving from low-price exports to high-price imports

Milli

on e

uros

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hydro Nuclear Wind

850€

2 700€

3 700€

340€

1 080€1 480€

Value of Swedish clean energy production in 2015 - at prices of 20 € and 50 € per MWh

Data: production data from Swedish Energy Authority 20 €/MWh is roughly current average price (2015)

50 €/MWh is estimated minimum price for new clean energy investments

Value of Swedish clean energy exports in 2015 - at prices of 20 € and 50 € per MWh

Milli

on e

uros

0

300

600

900

1200

1 150 Euros

460 Euros

20 € / MWh 50 € / MWh

Data: production data from Swedish Energy Authority 20 €/MWh is roughly current average price (2015)

50 €/MWh is estimated minimum price for new clean energy investments

Value of Swedish clean energy exports in 2015-2021 with various nuclear closure scenarios

at price of 20 € per MWhM

illion

Eur

os

-700

-525

-350

-175

0

175

350

525

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Milli

on E

uros

-1800

-1350

-900

-450

0

450

900

1350

1800

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


at price of 50 € per MWh


at price of 20 € and 50 € per MWhM

illion

Eur

os

-1800

-1500

-1200

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

50€ - No new closures 50€ - Planned closures50€ - Vattefall closures 50€ - All nukes close20€ - No new closures 20€ - Planned closures20€ - Vattefall closures 20€ - All nukes close

Revenue from nuclear tax to Swedish governmentM

illion

Eur

os

0

125

250

375

500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Tax stays Tax removed from 2017

Fiscally, the tax is going away either through removal or closures

Milli

on E

uros

0

1250

2500

3750

5000

No new closures Planned closures Vattenfall closures All nukes close

M€2 450M€2 450

M€900

M€900

M€1 940M€2 160

M€2 920

M€3 920

Export revenue Tax

Total revenue from exports at 20 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021

Total revenue from exports at 50 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021

Milli

on E

uros

0

3000

6000

9000

12000


M€2 450M€2 450M€900

M€900

M€4 850M€5 400

M€7 300

M€9 800

Export revenue Tax

Milli

on E

uros

-1800

-1350

-900

-450

0

450

900

1350

1800


M-€1 550M-€1 000

M€900

M€1 650

Export revenue Tax

Annual revenue from exports at 50 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden after 2020

If tax stays, nukes close, one of these is

the likely scenario

Milli

on E

uros

0

350

700

1050

1400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Export revenue @ 20 € Tax revenue

Annual revenue from exports at 20 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if no new closures

Milli

on E

uros

0

250

500

750

1000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Annual revenue from exports at 20 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if old nukes close

Old nukes refers to Oskarshamn 1 and 2 and Ringhals 1 and 2

Milli

on E

uros

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual revenue from exports at 20 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if Vattenfall nukes close

From 2021 onward Sweden will need to import electricity with ~400 Meuros

Milli

on E

uros

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual revenue from exports at 20 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if all nukes close

From 2021 onward Sweden will need to import electricity with 600+ Meuros

Annual revenue from exports at 50 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if no new closures

Milli

on E

uros

0

425

850

1275

1700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Annual revenue from exports at 50 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if old nukes close

Milli

on E

uros

0

400

800

1200

1600

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Annual revenue from exports at 50 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if Vattenfall nukes close

Milli

on E

uros

-1200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1200

1600

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


From 2021 onward Sweden will need to import electricity with 1000 Meuros

Annual revenue from exports at 50 € MWh and nuclear tax to Sweden between 2015-2021 if all nukes close

Milli

on E

uros

-1600

-1200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1200

1600

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


From 2021 onward Sweden will need to import electricity with 1500+ Meuros

Sweden Emissions Overview

Sweden emissions by sectorkt

CO

2-eq

v

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Electricity & central heating Industry Total transports (dom.&int.)


Sweden total emissions by sectorkt

CO

2-eq

v

0

15000

30000

45000

60000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Electricity & central heat Industry Domestic transportInternat. transport


Sweden domestic, non-LULUCF per capita emissions 2001-2014

tons

per

cap

ita

0

2

4

6

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Swedish per capita emissions have fallen by more than a quarter since 2000


Sweden electricity & heat emissions per capitato

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Almost all of these emissions come from four district heating plants: - Arosverket in Västerås (coal) - Värtaverket in Stockholm (coal) - Ryaverket in Gothenburg (natural gas) - Öresundsverket in Malmö (natural gas)

Sweden industry emissions per capitato

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

0,575

1,15

1,725

2,3

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Sweden domestic transportation emissions / capitato

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

0,6

1,2

1,8

2,4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Sweden international transport emissions per capitato

ns C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

0,275

0,55

0,825

1,1

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Sweden total transport emissions per capita 2001-2014kt

CO

2-eq

v / c

apita

0

1

2

3

4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

International Domestic


Sweden emissions dynamicsWhat could happen with nuclear closures?

Grid

ave

rage

gra

ms

CO

2-eq

v / k

Wh

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Sweden Finland Lithuania Denmark Germany Estonia

794

510

401340

9720

Sweden Finland Lithuania Denmark Germany Estonia

Swedish electricity exports often replace much dirtier power in neighbouring countries

Source: IEA and national energy agencies, data year varies from 2010 to 2015

gram

s C

o2-e

qv /

kWh

0

250

500

750

1000

Nuclear Coal

1 000

220

820

12

781

5

Vattenfall LCA (CHP coal) IPCC 2014 median Highest estimate

Although nuclear would be replaced often by marginal coal production, not average grid

production

kton

s C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

1750

3500

5250

7000

Ringhals 1 R2 R3 R4 Oskarshamn 1 O2 O3 Forsmark 1 F2 F3

58075480

4814

6849

3121

2314

45895196

39484296

868171102463468775964

Emissions from nuclear Saved compared to coal

Emissions saved by Swedish reactors per year, compared to burning coal

Data: 0.7 load factor used for nuclear, reactor net power from World-nuclear.org Emissions are IPCC (2014) mean: 12 g CO2/kWh for nuclear, 820 g for coal

kton

s C

O2-

eqv

/ yea

r

0

12500

25000

37500

50000

CO2 saved by nuclear Electricity&heat Domestic transport Internat transport Industry

Compared to coal burning, Swedish nuclear saves ~2.5 times the Swedish domestic

transportation emissions

Data: Swedish Energy Authority, reactor net power from World-nuclear.org Emissions are IPCC (2014) mean: 12 g CO2/kWh for nuclear, 820 g for coal

Saved emissions due to nuclear use equal more than 10 million cars’ annual

emissions

Health consequences of early nuclear phaseout in Sweden

Mortality from nuclear compared to coal

Annual mortality prevented by nuclear compared to burning coal 1972 - 2015

0

750

1500

2250

3000

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Low estimate High estimate Historical rate

Sources: Swedish Energy Authority Low and High are estimates with modern coal plants

Historical rate is from Clean Air Task Force

Total mortality prevented by Nuclear compared to burning coal up to 2015

0

17500

35000

52500

70000

64 713

24 726

11 148

Low estimate High estimate Historical


Historical rate is from Clean Air Task Force

Total mortality prevented by Swedish nuclear compared to burning coal up to 2015 - and Chernobyl

0

17500

35000

52500

70000

4 000

64 713

24 726

11 148

Low estimate High estimate Historical Chernobyl estimated

Sources: Swedish Energy Authority Low and High are estimates with modern coal plants,

Chernobyl is WHO/UNSCEAR estimate

Deaths prevented during Swedish reactors’ remaining operational lifetime

0

2500

5000

7500

100009 833

4 433

Low estimate High estimate


Remaining production estimated at 900 TWh

Deaths prevented during Swedish reactors’ remaining operational lifetime - and annual Swedish traffic fatalities

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

264

9 833

4 433

Low estimate High estimate Traffic fatalities in 2013


Remaining production estimated at 900 TWh

Sweden Energy Outlook

Environment

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