The NSF Science and The NSF Science and TechnologyTechnology

Centers Program in Centers Program in PerspectivePerspective

Kelvin K. DroegemeierKelvin K. DroegemeierProfessor, School of Meteorology and Professor, School of Meteorology and

Director, Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsDirector, Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsUniversity of OklahomaUniversity of Oklahoma

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Looking Back to 1987Looking Back to 1987 The web didn’t existThe web didn’t exist NSFnet was in its infancy (56K connections)NSFnet was in its infancy (56K connections) The “fast” computer was the Cray X-MPThe “fast” computer was the Cray X-MP Universities and K-12 education. Are you serious?Universities and K-12 education. Are you serious? ““Interdisciplinary” was an emerging paradigmInterdisciplinary” was an emerging paradigm Global competition in science/technology was risingGlobal competition in science/technology was rising Perceived weakening in and exodus from US national Perceived weakening in and exodus from US national

laboratorieslaboratories Lack of a clear path in the US from basic research to Lack of a clear path in the US from basic research to

practical economic and societal benefitspractical economic and societal benefits

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The STC ConceptThe STC Concept Create well-funded, long-term centers exclusively at Create well-funded, long-term centers exclusively at

universities (though involving other entities)universities (though involving other entities) Attack fundamental science problems that are beyond a Attack fundamental science problems that are beyond a

single investigator and require multidisciplinary single investigator and require multidisciplinary approachesapproaches

Weave education and knowledge transfer throughout the Weave education and knowledge transfer throughout the center’s activitiescenter’s activities

Encourage linkages with industry to effectuate practical Encourage linkages with industry to effectuate practical utilization as well as researchutilization as well as research

Sunset law -- seed fund (plant) and let others water!Sunset law -- seed fund (plant) and let others water!

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Your Starting PointYour Starting Point The STC Program helped bring about or solidify The STC Program helped bring about or solidify

many things we know as common todaymany things we know as common today– Interdisciplinary research is well establishedInterdisciplinary research is well established– University participation in K-12 education is well University participation in K-12 education is well

establishedestablished– Commercialization of intellectual property is growing and Commercialization of intellectual property is growing and

IP issues are being dealt withIP issues are being dealt with– University partnerships with the private sector are University partnerships with the private sector are

commoncommon– Virtual collaboration is available (important for centers Virtual collaboration is available (important for centers

involving multiple institutions)involving multiple institutions)– Accountability is now a major issueAccountability is now a major issue– Tangible benefits to society have been demonstratedTangible benefits to society have been demonstrated– Science impacts are being communicated to Congress Science impacts are being communicated to Congress

(e.g., Ehlers report), but more work is needed(e.g., Ehlers report), but more work is neededs fn

The CAPS Problem: The CAPS Problem: Numerical Prediction of Numerical Prediction of

High-Impact Local High-Impact Local WeatherWeather

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What Do Operational Weather Models What Do Operational Weather Models Predict?Predict?

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What Do Forecasters Deal With?What Do Forecasters Deal With?

Individual thunderstorms and squall linesIndividual thunderstorms and squall lines Lake effect snow stormsLake effect snow storms Down-slope wind stormsDown-slope wind storms Convective initiationConvective initiation Seabreeze convectionSeabreeze convection Stratocumulus decks off the coastStratocumulus decks off the coast Cold air dammingCold air damming Post-frontal rainbandsPost-frontal rainbands

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Can We Predict Local High-Impact Can We Predict Local High-Impact Weather Weather ExplicitlyExplicitly Using Numerical Using Numerical

Models???Models???

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Theoretical viabilityTheoretical viability Computing and data Computing and data

neededneeded Practical implementationPractical implementation Economic and societal Economic and societal

valuevalue Commercial potentialCommercial potential

The Consequences and The Consequences and NeedNeed

Local high-impact weather causes economic Local high-impact weather causes economic losses in the US that average $300 M losses in the US that average $300 M per weekper week

Over 10% of the $7 trillion US economy is Over 10% of the $7 trillion US economy is impacted each yearimpacted each year

Commercial aviation losses are Commercial aviation losses are $1-2 B per $1-2 B per yearyear (one diverted flight costs $150K) (one diverted flight costs $150K)

Agriculture losses exceed Agriculture losses exceed $10 B/year$10 B/year Other industries (power utilities, surface Other industries (power utilities, surface

transport)transport) About About 50%50% of the loss is preventable! of the loss is preventable!

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Pielke Jr. (1997)

More than the National Weather More than the National Weather ServiceService

General and commercial aviationGeneral and commercial aviation Power and communication utilitiesPower and communication utilities Surface transportationSurface transportation AgricultureAgriculture Defense and space flightDefense and space flight ConstructionConstruction InsuranceInsurance Weather derivatives and commoditiesWeather derivatives and commodities RecreationRecreation Toxic releaseToxic release HydrologyHydrology

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NEXRAD Doppler Radar NEXRAD Doppler Radar DataData

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NEXRAD Radar Observations

7:00 pm - 2 hour Forecast

ARPS Prediction Model(2 hour forecast)

CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic StormsStorms

Comparison With Current Operational Comparison With Current Operational ModelModel

12-hour NWS12-hour NWSForecastForecast

(unable to(unable torepresentrepresentindividualindividual

thunderstorms)thunderstorms)

Moore, OKTornadic

Storm

2-Hour CAPS Computer Forecast Down to the Scale of Counties

NEXRAD Radar Observations

Moore, OKTornadic

Storm

The Early YearsThe Early Years Early organization is absolutely criticalEarly organization is absolutely critical

– Take proposal and reviews and come up with a work Take proposal and reviews and come up with a work planplan

– Everyone needs to see where they fit, especially Everyone needs to see where they fit, especially studentsstudents

– Regular meetings of center leadership are important Regular meetings of center leadership are important – Need to balance the “freedom” of a university Need to balance the “freedom” of a university

setting with the organization of a private companysetting with the organization of a private company A good associate director and other administrative A good associate director and other administrative

staff!staff! Specific goals for individual thrust areas -- good to have Specific goals for individual thrust areas -- good to have

a common target that everyone is working towarda common target that everyone is working toward PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!!PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!!

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The Early YearsThe Early Years Early organization is absolutely criticalEarly organization is absolutely critical

– Take proposal and reviews and come up with a work planTake proposal and reviews and come up with a work plan– Everyone needs to see where they fit, especially studentsEveryone needs to see where they fit, especially students– Regular meetings of center leadership are important early Regular meetings of center leadership are important early

in the process (and ongoing)in the process (and ongoing)– Need to balance the “freedom” of a university setting with Need to balance the “freedom” of a university setting with

the organization of a private companythe organization of a private company Clear lines of authority and responsibilityClear lines of authority and responsibility A good associate director and other administrative staff!A good associate director and other administrative staff! Specific goals for individual thrust areas -- good to have a Specific goals for individual thrust areas -- good to have a

common target that everyone is working towardcommon target that everyone is working toward PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!!PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!!

– Establish a Establish a strongstrong External Advisory Panel External Advisory Panel– Maintain strong ties with your program director and quickly Maintain strong ties with your program director and quickly

deal with problems as they arisedeal with problems as they arise

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The Early YearsThe Early Years Some good early decisionsSome good early decisions

– Worked with the “end users” as soon as possibleWorked with the “end users” as soon as possible– Developed a vision for the practical benefits and kept them in mindDeveloped a vision for the practical benefits and kept them in mind– Developed something that would live beyond the center and the people who Developed something that would live beyond the center and the people who

developed itdeveloped it– Not only “did science” but looked toward commercialization from day oneNot only “did science” but looked toward commercialization from day one– Excellent linkages with university administrationExcellent linkages with university administration

Early strugglesEarly struggles– Education and outreachEducation and outreach– Dealing with reporting procedures (data base) - NSF was learning right along with Dealing with reporting procedures (data base) - NSF was learning right along with

usus– Lots of reviews (13 formal reviews in 9 years)Lots of reviews (13 formal reviews in 9 years)

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The Mature PhaseThe Mature Phase Try to stay focused and avoid the temptation of broadening your goals too Try to stay focused and avoid the temptation of broadening your goals too

quicklyquickly Staff turnover unavoidable -- try to cross-trainStaff turnover unavoidable -- try to cross-train STC director meetings will be valuableSTC director meetings will be valuable Make visits to the HillMake visits to the Hill Professional development: scientists need to learn how to write proposals, etc Professional development: scientists need to learn how to write proposals, etc Be creativeBe creative

– undergraduate fellows programsundergraduate fellows programs– REU and related opportunitiesREU and related opportunities– visiting scientist programsvisiting scientist programs– international linkagesinternational linkages

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The Ramp Down and The Ramp Down and TransitionTransition

Plan to lose your funding - that’s the way it should be!Plan to lose your funding - that’s the way it should be! Start cultivating linkages with the private sector and other communities Start cultivating linkages with the private sector and other communities Think carefully whether certain efforts should continueThink carefully whether certain efforts should continue

– Difficult to sustain a single scientific problem beyond a decadeDifficult to sustain a single scientific problem beyond a decade– Does it make sense to continue?Does it make sense to continue?

CAPS created a transition teamCAPS created a transition team– Responded to opportunitiesResponded to opportunities– Created our own opportunities (this is critical since your work will be very novel) -- do it Created our own opportunities (this is critical since your work will be very novel) -- do it

all along the wayall along the way Plan for efforts to slow a bit if transition funding is uncertain -- write papers!Plan for efforts to slow a bit if transition funding is uncertain -- write papers! Private company/commercializationPrivate company/commercialization

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CAPS in PerspectiveCAPS in Perspective

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Basic R&D Operational Applications & Testing Commercialization

1989-1992 +++ 0 0

1993-1996 +++ + 0

1997-1998 ++ ++ +

1999-2000 + ++ ++

2001-2003 ++ + +++

2003-2005 +++ + ++++

WDT

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Some SuggestionsSome Suggestions Track your intellectual property from day one and work Track your intellectual property from day one and work

closely with your Research or IP Officeclosely with your Research or IP Office Track the careers of your students and post-docsTrack the careers of your students and post-docs Assign a competent staff member to the data baseAssign a competent staff member to the data base Have weekly informal scientific discussions for all center Have weekly informal scientific discussions for all center

personnel, including studentspersonnel, including students Rehearse site visits and EAP meetingsRehearse site visits and EAP meetings Think out of the box -- you’re the NSF’s premiere activity!Think out of the box -- you’re the NSF’s premiere activity!

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Because CAPS was an Because CAPS was an STC...STC...

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NEXRAD Radar Observations

7:00 pm - 2 hour Forecast

ARPS Prediction Model(2 hour forecast)

CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic StormsStorms

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$1 million, 3-year R&D project with $1 million, 3-year R&D project with American Airlines American Airlines

Built and now operate for AA aBuilt and now operate for AA acustomized numerical predictioncustomized numerical predictionsystemsystem

Led to an endowed professorshipLed to an endowed professorship Helped initiate a private companyHelped initiate a private company

– Possibly an AA-Weather Channel equityPossibly an AA-Weather Channel equitypartnershippartnership

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Project Hub-CAPSProject Hub-CAPS

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Abilene + NEXRADAbilene + NEXRAD

15-h Accumulated Precipitation15-h Accumulated PrecipitationValid 03Z on 1 August 1999Valid 03Z on 1 August 1999(400 Station AWS Mesonet)(400 Station AWS Mesonet)

Operational Version of ARPS in Korea Operational Version of ARPS in Korea (1999)(1999)

ARPS 12-h 9 km ARPS 12-h 9 km Forecast Valid 03Z on 1 August 1999Forecast Valid 03Z on 1 August 1999

Weather Decision Weather Decision Technologies, Inc.Technologies, Inc.

WDTWDT

When the Book is Written on When the Book is Written on CAPS...CAPS...

We would like to be remembered for the fact that weWe would like to be remembered for the fact that we– Did our best and did not squander the S&T Center opportunityDid our best and did not squander the S&T Center opportunity– Learned from our mistakes and listened to advice (and Learned from our mistakes and listened to advice (and

sometimes even followed it!)sometimes even followed it!)– Produced new scientific knowledge of the highest quality and Produced new scientific knowledge of the highest quality and

moved the field forward more quickly than otherwise would moved the field forward more quickly than otherwise would have been the casehave been the case

– Led major national initiatives that otherwise would not have Led major national initiatives that otherwise would not have happenedhappened

– Were good stewards of the funding entrusted to us and held Were good stewards of the funding entrusted to us and held ourselves to the highest standards of professional ethicsourselves to the highest standards of professional ethics

– Had the interests of the community in mind for every decision Had the interests of the community in mind for every decision mademade

– Recognized that our work was made possible by the efforts of Recognized that our work was made possible by the efforts of those who preceded usthose who preceded us

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Finally…Finally… The STC program is one of NSF’s crowning The STC program is one of NSF’s crowning

achievementsachievements

The STC experience will no doubt be the The STC experience will no doubt be the highlight of your careerhighlight of your career

Have a great time. Congratulations!!Have a great time. Congratulations!!

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CAPS Contact InformationCAPS Contact Information Visit CAPS on the web at http://caps.ou.eduVisit CAPS on the web at http://caps.ou.edu Real time forecasts are at Real time forecasts are at

http://caps.ou.edu/wxhttp://caps.ou.edu/wx For more information, contactFor more information, contact

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Prof. Kelvin K. Droegemeier, DirectorCenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms

University of OklahomaSarkeys Energy Center, Suite 1110

100 East Boyd StreetNorman, OK 73019Email: kkd@ou.eduPhone: 405-325-0453Fax: 405-325-7614