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The NOAA Climate Program: Research and Climate Services

Chet Koblinsky

Director of the NOAA Climate Program, and

Acting Director of the Office of Global ProgramsClimate Prediction Assessments and

Services Workshop, March 9-11,

Florida State University,

Tallahassee, Florida

NOAA Climate Program

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• Ten years ago NOAA’s climate services were primarily focused on the dissemination of coarsely resolved national seasonal forecasts.

• Over the last ten years NOAA has, in close collaboration with decision-makers, conducted research that has enhanced the relevance, value, and accuracy of its data and forecasting tools.

• Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change?

Need to develop a vision and roadmap for the future.

NOAA Climate Program

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• The current program stems from NOAA’s commitment to develop a cohesive system that links research, operational climate services, and decision-makers needs.

NOAA Climate Program

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NOAA’ s MISSION

To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs.

BENEFITS TO THE NATION

Consistent with its results-oriented approach to strategic planning, NOAA is committed to maximizing the benefits of its products and services to our Nation’s:

•Environment •Public Safety •Economy

NOAA Climate ProgramVision

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Climate is one of the four strategic themes within NOAA.

“Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond”

Climate Services (NAS): The timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers.

Anticipated Outcomes (Build an end-to-end system)– Increased use and effectiveness of observations and

climate information – show the benefit of the observations, provide feedback on what works, what doesn’t work, and what needs to be changed and how.

NOAA Climate ProgramMission Goal 2 - Climate

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Research

NOAA Climate Transition Program

Operations/Decision-makers

InformationGathering andDissemination

NOAA Climate Program Research to Delivery

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Climate Board

Mat

rix

Lin

k

Interagency ClimateOffice

External AdvisoryGroups

NOAA Climate Program Office

NMFS

RISAs, IRI,Extension

NWS

NCEP

CSD

Regions

OGP,COSP

Sea Grant

CDC, GFDL

OAR NOS

CSC, OCRM,CWISE

NESDIS

RCCs CWISE

NGDC

NCDCNODC

CPC

OCWWS

RegionalManager

WFOs/RFCs

Matrix Link

EMC

NOAA Climate ProgramOrganizational Ideas

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1. Climate Observations and Analysis (T. Karl - NESDIS) 50%ObservationsData StewardshipUnderstanding Climate Variability and Change

2. Climate Forcing (D. Albritton - OAR) 20%Global Carbon CycleAtmospheric Composition

3. Climate Predictions and Projections (A. Leetmaa - OAR) 25%Climate PredictionClimate Change ProjectionsReducing Model Uncertainty

4. Climate and Ecosystems (N. Cyr - NMFS) 1%

5: Regional Decision Support (R. Livezey NWS, C. Nierenberg - OAR) 4%

NOAA Climate Program Elements

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Regional Decision Support: A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding to stakeholder needs for products and services.

Outcome – Enhance NOAA’s operational decision support tools to provide climate services for national socio-economic benefits

Performance Measure – Provide NWS forecasters scientific training to understand and use NOAA climate forecasts and other climate products, and adapt these products for regional delivery.

NOAA Climate ProgramGoal 5

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Exploratory workshops to identify climate sensitive issues at regional scales.

Regional forums to identify research priorities and transfer to operations

Develop prototype methods for application of climate information to practical management

Transition research products to operations

Social science-based studies for context and use of climate information

NOAA Climate ProgramMilestones for Goal 5

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• Operational wildfire forecasting a federal and state partnership with NOAA.

• Climate implications for estuarine rehabilitation, the CALFED example.

• NWS partnerships with FEMA to improve disaster management in Montana.

• Climate based risk management NOAA-USDA research-extension partnership.

NOAA Climate ProgramExamples

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NOAA Climate Program

• Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change?

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BACKUP

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Development ofDecision Resources

(across scales & communities)

Increase ResponseOptions

Expanded Regional Adaptive

Capacity

Identification of key Knowledge gaps

Policy Contexts and

Decision-making Processes

Scientific ResourcesAnd Knowledge

Problem IdentificationAnd Formulation

Characterizing&

Communicating

Outcomes

PLACE-BASED RESEARCH ANDDECISION SUPPORT

• Extreme events• Recreation• Estuarine restoration

• Ecosystem sciences• Ecosystems restoration• Endangered species

• Mississippi Great Lakes shipping (variable water volume)• Extreme events & infrastructure• Extreme events & public safety (insurance)

• Fisheries populations• Production

• Health• EPA air quality regulation • Vector borne diseases

• Asthma

• Energy demand Conditions for wind & solar

• Risk management• Yield, supply, price expectation• Trade implications

• Wildfire management• Reforestation options• Controlled burning

• Flood Control• Water quality• Consumption