Chad McNutt and Lisa Darby NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory/Climate Program Office
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Transcript of Chad McNutt and Lisa Darby NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory/Climate Program Office
Chad McNutt and Lisa Darby NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory/Climate Program Office
NIDIS Background
Southeast Drought Outlook Forum (Dec. 1)
NIDIS ACF Pilot Update Meeting (Dec. 2)
Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006)
• “Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts”
• “better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”
NIDIS Objectives• Coordinating national
drought monitoring and forecasting systems
• Providing an interactive drought information clearinghouse and delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)
• Designing mechanisms for improving and incorporating information to support coordinated preparedness and planning
Missouri
Oklahoma
Montana
Chesapeake Bay
NIDIS Early Warning Systems PilotsHighlighted-first round prototypes;
Others-Regional DEWS & transferability
Southeast
Colorado River Basin
California
Columbia River Basin
Great Plains
Great Lakes
Tennessee Valley
NIDIS ACF Pilot Drought Early Warning Information System in
Review
Southeast Drought Outlook Forum
November 18, 2010 Albany December 1, 2011 Lake
Lanier• Observed and predicted state
of climate system in the SE• Implications of SE Outlook on
ACF
•Discussion of short-term and long-term vulnerabilities
Albany in Nov 2010 – strong La Nina, forecast for it to cont. throughout the winter did verify• Impact on rainfall across ACF
generally as expected• Impact on temperatures
across ACF not as expected: AO/NAO led to unusually cold December; some return to above-normal temperatures in Jan/Feb
Spring impacts were largely La Nina-like
Review of 2010 Outlook Forum-D. Zierden
There has been some short-term improvement in conditions over the past 60-90 days, which has helped ameliorate some of the drought impacts
2011-2012 winter and spring recharge in the ACF Basin will be crucial in determining the persistence and intensity of drought conditions
Current Conditions-V. Murphy
Lanier Calculated Inflows vs Rainfall Surplus/Deficits (Climate Division 2 and 3)
La Nina has redeveloped and is expected to persist throughout the winter• AO/NAO continues to be erratic and difficult to
predict
Expected La Nina impacts for this winter:• Better chance for warmer-than-normal
temperatures• Better change for drier-than-normal precipitation
Bottom line: drought likely to persist in ACF
Winter Outlook-M. Halpert
Winter Outlook-M. Halpert
3-Month Temperature Outlook
3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Forecast for the primary recharge period (winter and spring) for ACF Basin is as follows:• Greatest likelihood is for
below-normal inflows into Lake Lanier
• Greatest likelihood is for below-normal streamflow in the Flint, Chattahoochee, and Apalachicola Rivers
There is some uncertainty in these outlooks • Factors other than La Nina
can become dominant over short periods (e.g., AO/NAO)
La Nina & ACF Recharge-J. Dobur
Lake Lanier Inflows
Upper Flint
Lower Chattahoochee
Apalachicola
Historical Data – December – February Period
La Nina will continue through the winter But, this La Nina is weaker than last winter’s Slight odds of a third winter of La Nina conditions in 2012-2013 (“triple
delight”) Any return to El Nino in 2012 would likely benefit ACF (but historically,
more reliable impact would be in other drought-stricken areas such as Texas)
La Nina Forecast-K. Wolter
3yr La Niña 2yr La Niña
Lake Lanier – 3 Month Forecast-B. Crane
2011 Observed Elevations10th Percentile Hydrology25th Percentile Hydrology50th Percentile Hydrology
Top of Conservation
NIDIS ACF Pilot Update Meeting Results & Next Steps
Committees keep working• Education & Outreach• Data Committee
Webinars (~monthly)• USACE collaborate with NIDIS for drought
calls
How are we providing early warning?• Issue Drought Watch advisory• Distribute fact sheets
Thank you
Southeast Climate Outlook Forum
ENSO Status
Current Conditions
Effects of ENSO
3-Month Seasonal Forecast
Impacts&
Vulnerability
New Climate Water Efforts• Skillful drought and flood outlooks
for a range of climate time-scales based on process understanding of watershed-scale hydrologic budgets
• Regional drought monitoring tools and impact assessments
• Hydroclimate information system enhancements such as inputs into watershed plus state and local drought plans and operations