The Netherlands in a Sustainable World Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity Se cond Sustainabilty...
-
Upload
jack-carvin -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of The Netherlands in a Sustainable World Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity Se cond Sustainabilty...
The Netherlands in a Sustainable World
Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity
Second Sustainabilty Outlook
Aldert Hanemaaijer, projectleader
2
Approach First
Sustanability Outlook
4 ‘policy rich’ scenario’s
(based on different
worldviews and values)
• Anything is possible
• Goals were implicit
• Risk of cherry picking
• Difficult to give robust options
3
Approach Second Sustanability Outlook
• 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD)– No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy
4
Approach Second Sustanability Outlook
• 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD)– No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy
• Existing goals – MDG’s: half poverty– EU 2 degrees climate– CBD: signifcantly reduce biodiversity loss
• Policy challenge = goal - trend
• Options to realise goals
• Worldviews to make options robust
5
Assumptions Baseline Scenario
• Looking 35 years back and forward from 2005
• Almost 9 billion people in 2040
• World GDP tripples; GDP doubles per head
• Energy use + 75%; GHG almost + 50%
• Agricultural productivity + 40%
6
The world is not enough
For simultaneously:
Foodsupply
Biofuels
Biodiversity conservation
Climate Change
Biodiversity loss
7
Reasons for not realising the goals
• For biodiversity and climate change T < P * C
Population x Consumption Technology
• One-sided emphasis in the short term
• Partial solutions
• Inadequate international cooperation
8
Mankind develops …
Africa
lags
behind
9
… at the expense of biodiversity
10
11
12
13
Human development has an ecological price
Further loss of biodiversity is inevitable
14
MDG’s will not be reached in time
Africa and
South Asia
lag behind
15
Stimulating devlopment in poorest countries
• Investing in broad infrastructure
Education, health care, roads, energy, water, sanitation, etc.
• Abolish agricultural subsidies and phased opening of
markets in the poorest developing countries
• Combining ODA funds to prevent fragmentation
16
Climate requires strong international coalition
By broadening the EU trading system
17
18
Biofuels put tropical nature and food supply under additional pressure
19
There’s more then biofuels
• Lowering current EU ambitions for 2020
• Biofuels versus energy from biomass
• Other options for transport: more efficient engines and second generation cars
• How to get second generation biofuels in a liberalising global market, not competing with food production (in less productive areas)?
20
If the world would consume as the Dutch in 2040, all natural forests and grasslands will be gone
21
Reduce biodiversity loss
• Raise agricultural production in developing countries
• Influence people’s diet (meat)
• Sustainable production changes via companies
• Targeted protection of and paying for (tropical) nature
IPCC for biodiversity Biodiversity for development
ecosystem goods and services
22
No sustainable development without Europe
• Right scale to work on international coalition
• Emission trading and level playing field for companies
What is needed for SD on EU level? What is needed for SD on EU level?
• Broaden EU competences
– To integrate policies for development, climate, biodiversity,
trade, energy and agriculture
• Adjustment of decision making procedures
– Unanimity at discussion
23
Dutch citizens: “Government should take care”
• Solve the social dilemma– Support and willingness to pay for climate in NL and EU
• Products should be ‘OK’– Sustainable consumption also asks for active role government
• Pricing and EU regulation needed– Pricing in rich countries has less effect
24
Realising goals and human ambitions
• Fysical limits to realising all the global goals
• Big ambitions in a small world: what is possible?
• Will technolgy be enough? Also change in lifestyle!
– ‘Fat ego’ debate in NL on the question if everybody should be able to buy a SUV and a jaccuzi in the garden
– Influencing behavior with pricing, sustainable chains or taking away ‘bad’ choices by regulation
Coherent international policy
Willingness to pay
Key role for Europe
Leading government
Technology + lifestyle
Summary
What is needed?
Nederland en een duurzame wereld