The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program:

Oregon’s PerspectiveProgress, Future Goals and Proposed Work

for Fiscal Year 2008

National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Annual Meeting – Honolulu, Hawaii

November 1, 2007

Robert C. WitterOregon Regional Coastal Geologist

Jay WilsonEarthquake, Tsunami & Volcano Programs Coordinator

Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach

Continuing work on Post- Disaster Recovery Planning (w/CREW)

Continuing work towards Oregon’s unified tsunami warning standard

Developed and released the Tsunami Emergency Guidebook for Oregon Mass Media

Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach

Working closely with WFO Portland on providing guidance to Lincoln City’s new TsunamiReady Program coordinator, Althea Turner

Progress made on Seaside tsunami risk mitigation: CERT training initiated School tsunami ed program updated Acquiring Tone/Voice sire system Tsunami outreach coordinator Reverse 911

Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach

Working with WC/ATWC, reviewed and revised the tsunami warning and advisory criteria after the Kuril Islands event

Impacts in Crescent City, CA

1964 Tsunami VideoCompiling interviews and observations of

the 1964 Alaska tsunami in OregonTom Horning discusses multiple sites inSeaside, during 1964 tsunami

1964 Tsunami VideoCompiling interviews and observations of

the 1964 Alaska tsunami in Oregon1964-Seaside, Sea foam inundation, From Necanicum River

2007-Seaside,Current location,

Near Convention Center

1964 Tsunami VideoCompiling interviews and observations of

the 1964 Alaska tsunami in Oregon1964-Seaside, late Tsunami surge on the following day

2007-Seaside, Tsunami vulnerable Dock, especially considering new Tsunami Advisory

Observations of Tsunami Impacts

Mapped extent of 3 prehistoric tsunami deposits in Cannon Beach, Oregon

Used geologic data to reconstruct prehistoric landscape Compiled historical reports on 1964 tsunami impacts Using tsunami observations to verify computer simulations

Peat Debris layer Sand Peat

Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami

Bridge alignment

Bridge deck carried~300 m upstream

Cannon BeachElementary School

Foundation

House carried~400 m upstream

Published in the Hillsboro Argus, March 30, 1964

Bell Harbor Motel

Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami

“Bell Harbor Motel, fronting on Elk Creek at the north end of Cannon Beach, found itself in the direct path of the incoming tidal wave that swept up the little stream. The motel was inundated, and debris strewed its yard. This building roof, carried hundreds of yards, wound up in the front yard.”

Daily Astorian, March 30, 1964

Bell Harbor Motel

Comparisons of Models vs Sand Sheet

Average 9

Small 1 no dune

Small 1 dune

N

meters

feet

20000

5000

Elementaryschool

ProposedSchool

City Hall

Fire Station

Cannon Beach Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Developed new Cascadia earthquake source characterization Finalizing 25 Cascadia tsunami scenarios Simulated 1964 and worst-case Alaska tsunamis Probabilistic map explores the variability and uncertainty in

the earthquake source process Expanding tsunami hazard assessment into southern Oregon

Cannon Beach, Oregon

Vertical seafloor deformation

CannonBeach

Conceptual Tsunami Hazard Map

Cannon Beach, Oregon

Elementaryschool

ProposedSchool

City Hall

Fire Station

Worst-case Cascadia

“Most likely” Cascadia

Worst-case distant

Oregon’s Long-Term Goal:

Complete Cannon Beach Tsunami Hazard Assessment (winter 2008)

Develop prototype online interactive tsunami hazard and evacuation map for Cannon Beach (summer ‘08)

Use selected tsunami scenarios to map inundation hazard to entire northern Oregon coast (2009)

Complete online interactive tsunami hazard and evacuation maps for northern Oregon coast (2010)

Accelerate and complete tsunami hazard mapping

along entire Oregon coast in the next 5 years

…A Five-Year Plan Bandon Tsunami Hazard Assessment (fall 2007) Develop Cascadia earthquake source characteriza-

tion for southern Oregon (fall ’07-winter ’08) Investigate prehistoric tsunami inundation and

runup at Bandon, Oregon (winter-summer 2008) Run multiple tsunami simulations for Bandon (2009) Use selected tsunami scenarios to map inundation

hazard to southern Oregon coast communities (2010)

Complete mapping of southern Oregon coast (2011) Education and outreach (ongoing)

FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 1 – Mitigation and Preparedness

Develop effective public outreach programs and media tools Presentations to Lodging Assoc., CERTs, Oregon State Parks Tsunami Emergency Guidebook for Oregon Mass Media PSAs and press packets

Develop the next generation tsunami evacuation maps for Cannon Beach as digital online interactive maps (ARC IMS) Consistent information and style Zoomable to business or home location

Explore feasibility of an Oregon Tsunami Advisory workgroup

Support NOAA-NWS TsunamiReady activities Contribute to NTHMP and international mitigation efforts

Task 1 CostsLaborNon-labor

$57,242$7,235

$64,477

FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 2 – Inundation Modeling and Mapping

Task 2 CostsLaborNon-labor

$108,241$66,108

$174,349

Complete compilation of eyewitness observations for video documentary of past tsunami impacts on the Oregon coast

Develop new earthquake source models for southern Cascadia

Complete probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments for southern Cascadia at Bandon, Oregon

Develop the next generation tsunami hazard maps using an online interactive map display (ARC IMS)

FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 3 – Tsunami Notification Infrastructure

Support efforts of coastal communities to mitigate tsunami risk

Ensure that communities have access to multiple communication pathways for tsunami warnings

Participate in end-to-end tests of the tsunami alert system

Task 3 CostsLaborNon-labor

$0$36,174

$36,174Total NTHMP CostsLaborNon-labor

$160,483$109,517

$275,000