The Modeling of Climate and Climate Change; can we trust model predictions?
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Transcript of The Modeling of Climate and Climate Change; can we trust model predictions?
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The Modeling of Climate and Climate Change;can we trust model
predictions?University of California, Irvine
21 February 2003by
John Houghton
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Outline Introduction Cloud Radiation Feedback Ocean Interactions The Carbon Cycle The Climate of the 20th Century Climate Projections for the 21st Century Regional Climate Modeling Patterns of Climate Response
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The greenhouse effectLong-waveradiation
236 Wm-2
Equivalent T = 255 K (-18ºC)
390 Wm-2
T = 255 K (-15ºC)
236 Wm-2
Solar radiation
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Spectra of outgoing radiation from Earth observed by IRIS on Nimbus 3
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The Enhanced Greenhouse EffectSolar (S) and longwave (L) radiation in Wm2 at the top of the atmosphere
S L236 236
T = 18°C
S L236 232
CO2 x 2
S L236 236
CO2 x 2
S L236 236
CO2 x 2+ Feedbacks
H2O (+60%) Ice/Albedo (+20%)
Cloud?Ocean?
TS = 15°C TS = 15°C TS ~ 1.2K TS ~ 2.5K
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The climate system
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The Development of Climate models, Past, Present and Future
Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere
Land surfaceLand surfaceLand surfaceLand surfaceLand surface
Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice
Sulphateaerosol
Sulphateaerosol
Sulphateaerosol
Non-sulphateaerosol
Non-sulphateaerosol
Carbon cycle Carbon cycle
Atmosphericchemistry
Ocean & sea-icemodel
Sulphurcycle model
Non-sulphateaerosols
Carboncycle model
Land carboncycle model
Ocean carboncycle model
Atmosphericchemistry
Atmosphericchemistry
Off-linemodeldevelopment
Strengthening coloursdenote improvementsin models
Mid 1970s Mid 1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present day Early 2000s?
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Predicting impacts of climate change
Emissions
ConcentrationsCO2, methane, sulphates, etc.
Global climate changeTemperature, rainfall, sea level, etc.
Regional detailMountain effects, islands, extreme weather, etc.
ImpactsFlooding, food supply, etc.
Scenarios from population, energy,economics models
Carbon cycle and chemistry models
Coupled global climate models
Regional climate models
Impacts models
The main stages required to provide climate change scenarios for assessing the impacts of climate change.
Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
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Coupled atmosphere / ocean climate model
Radiation
Atmosphere: DensityMotionWater
HeatExchange of: Momentum
Water
Ocean: Density (inc. Salinity)Motion
SeaIce
Land
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19 levels in atmosphere
20 levelsin ocean
2.5lat 3.75
long
1.251.25
THE HADLEYCENTRETHIRDCOUPLEDMODEL -HadCM3
30km
-5km
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Physical Feedbacks Water vapour Ice albedo Clouds Oceans Ice sheets
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Cloud Radiation Feedback
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Cloud radiation feedback
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Global average change in T /CGreenhouse Gases Clouds Change in T
None As Now -32As Now None 4As Now +3% high 0.3As Now +3% low -1X2 CO2X2 CO2
As Now+ feedbacks
1.22.5
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Model Estimates of Cloud Radiative Forcing with CO2 Doubling
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Effect of cloud feedback formulation on climate prediction
Feedback scheme Global Av Temp change,C for doubled CO2
–RH 5.3–CW 2.8–CWRP 1.9
– after Senior & Mitchell, Hadley Centre
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Net cloud forcing: January to July
Hadley Centre
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SHIP TRACKS UNDER CLOUD
Washingtonstate
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Ocean Interactions
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JTH14 23 IPCC Synthesis Report
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Strength of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic.
Hadley Centre
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JTH15 25 IPCC Third Assessment Report
Modelled transport of water in Atlantic conveyor belt
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Projected changes in annual temperatures for the 2050s
The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about 1% increase per year in CO2
The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.
BW 11
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Changes in surface air temperature, relative to the present day, 20 years after the hypothetical collapse of the thermohaline circulation.
Hadley Centre
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Surface Temperature
Combined effect of THC collapse (2049-2059) and global warming
Cooling over UK: 1-3°C
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The Carbon Cycle
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JTH15 31 IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle
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Partitioning of CO2 uptake using O2 measurements
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1980s 1990s
Atmospheric increase 3.3 ± 0.1 3.2 ± 0.1
Emissions (fossil fuel, cement) 5.4 ± 0.3 6.3 ± 0.4
Ocean-atmosphere flux -1.9 ± 0.6 -1.7 ± 0.5
Land atmosphere flux -0.2 ± 0.7 -1.4 ± 0.7
partitioned as follows:
Land-use change 1.7 (0.6 to 2.5) NA
Residual terrestrial sink -1.9 (-3.8 to 0.3) NA
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Global CO2 budgets in GtC per year
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Carbon cycle feedbacks
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Change in carbon content of soil (top) and vegetation (bottom) between 1860 and 2100 - predicted by Hadley Centre climate model
Hadley Centre
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Simulated changes in the global total soil and vegetation carbon content (Gt C) between 1860 and 2100.
Hadley Centre
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Influence of ENSO on CO2 Variability
Annual changes in atmospheric CO2 are dominated by ENSO
– after removing anthropogenic rise
– rise during El Nino
– fall during La NinaCO2 - black, Nino3 - red
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Influence of Volcanoes on CO2 Variability
2 notable exceptions to ENSO correlation
CO2 levels lower than expected
Coincide with major volcanic eruptions
CO2 - black, Nino3 - red
El Chichon
Pinatubo
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Constraint from ENSO Sensitivity Model with q10=2 has realistic sensitivity to
ENSO.
Reconstructions for range of q10.
Infer q10=2.1±0.7.
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Constraint from Sensitivity to Volcanoes
Model with q10=2 has realistic sensitivity to Pinatubo.
Reconstructions for range of q10.
Infer q10=1.9±0.4
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ENSO and Pinatubo Variations as a constraint on climate-carbon cycle feedback
Model without C cycle
Feedback
Model with C cycle
Feedback (q10= 2)
Grey region is estimate of uncertaintyrelated to q10 parameter for soil respiration
q10= 3
q10= 1
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JTH15 43Photo: Tim Hewison
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Estimated carbon uptake if suitable arable land north of 30º N were to be replaced with trees.
Hadley Centre
The additional effect on climate of the changes in surface reflectivity when trees are planted on suitable arable land north of 30º N, expressed as equivalent carbon emissions.
The difference between the two diagrams above. Negative values show where the net effect of planting trees is to warm climate.
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NET EFFECT OF PLANTING TREESexpressed as equivalent carbon uptake
tonnes of carbon per hectare–50 0 50 100 150 200
Negative values show where the net effect of planting trees is to warm climate
Met Office / Hadley Centre
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EMISSIONS AND CONCENTRATIONS OF CO2 from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
10
5
0
15
20
Ant
hrop
ogen
ic C
O 2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
/yr)
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350
CO
con
cent
ratio
n (p
pm)
2
1000950900850800750700650600550500450400350
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350
Source: IPCC
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The Climate of the 20th Century
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Global mean surface air temperature anomalies from 1,000 year control simulations with three different climate models, - Hadley, GFDL and Hamburg, compared to the recent instrumental record. No model control simulation shows a trend in surface air temperature as large as the observed trend. If internal variability is correct in these models, the recent warming is likely not due to variability produced within the climate system alone.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures
Natural forcing
Anthropogenic forcing
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Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures
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IPCC statements on Detection
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” 1995 Report
“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”2001 Report
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Climate Projections for the 21st century
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The solid line shows a GCM prediction of temperature change. Prior to 1990, historical emissions were used. Beyond 1990, the IS92a emissions scenario was used. The dashed line shows the results of scaling the model prediction to give the best fit to the most recent 50 years of observations. The shaded region is the uncertainty estimate.
Hadley Centre
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SRES scenario familysMore
economic
More environmental
More regional
More global
B: balancedFI: fossil intensiveT: non-fossil
A1 A2
B2B1
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JTH15 55 IPCC Third Assessment Report
Globally averaged tempertaure change for scenario SRES B2
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JTH15 56 IPCC Third Assessment Report
Globally averaged precipitation change for scenario SRES B2
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JTH15 57 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
Area averaged changes in summer rainfall for the period 2071-2100 over southern Asia as predicted by nine coupled models forced by the A2 emissions scenario (taken from Chapter 10 of the Scientific Basis of the IPCC Third Assessment Report). In other areas predictions can show much greater differences in magnitude and even sign.
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Observed and projected changes in extremesConfidence in observed
changes (latter half of the 20th century)
Likely
Very likely
Very likely
Likely, over many areas
Likely, over many Northern Hemisphere mid- to high-latitude land areas
Likely, in a few areas
Not observed in the few analyses available
Insufficient data for assessment
Changes in Phenomenon
Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areasHigher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas
Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
Increase of heat index over land areas
More intense precipitation events
Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought
Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities
Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities
Confidence in projected changes (during the 21st century)
Very likely
Very likely
Very likely
Very likely, over most areas
Very likely, over many areas
Likely, over most mid-latitude continental interiors (Lack of consistent projections in other areas)
Likely, over some areas
Likely, over some areas
IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Simulated temperature rise and thermal expansion for the 4xCO2 experiment
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Regional Climate Modelling
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JTH15 61 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
Schematic diagram of the resolution of the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere in the Hadley Centre regional climate model.
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Regional Climate Model
High resolution (50km) over limited area (Europe, Indian subcontinent)
Embedded in global model, so subject to same uncertainties
Takes account of local characteristics, e.g. mountains, coasts
Better regional detail, better prediction of extremes in weather (eg flooding)
Everybody wants one!
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JTH15 63 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
The representation of the Philippines in RCMs with resolutions of 400 km (the GCM), 50 km and 25 km.
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JTH15 64 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
Patterns of present-day winter precipitation over Britain. Left, as simulated with the global model. Middle: as simulated with the 50 km regional model. Right, as observed.
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JTH15 65 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
The frequency of winter days over the Alps with different daily rainfall thresholds. Purple bars, observed. Dark red bars simulated by the GCM. Green bars simulated by the RCM.
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JTH15 66 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
A tropical cyclone is evident in the mean sea-level pressure field from the RCM (right) but not in the driving GCM (left) for the corresponding day (from an RCM over southern Africa, developed by the Hadley Centre in collaboration with the university of Cape Town).
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JTH15 67 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
Predicted changes in summer surface air temperatures between the present day and the end of the 21st century. Left, from the global model. Right, from the regional model.
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JTH15 68 Hadley Centre - PRECIS brochure
Predicted changes in monsoon precipitation over India, between the present day and the middle of the 21st century from the GCM (left) and the RCM (right).
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JTH14 69
Is the Climate Chaotic?