2012 Planning Committee Meeting

The Metropolitan Toronto Hotel, Canada

webcast:https://new.livestream.com/MillenniumProjectTV

26 & 27 July 2012

The Millennium Project

Agenda Thursday July 26, 2012

9:00 Introductions and Review Agenda 9:30 Recent Accomplishments10:00 Current and Recent Research and Activities

2012 State of the Future 2012 State of the Future Index

Changes to Gender Stereotypes 10:45 Break 11:30 Cooperatives 2030

Future of Food Industries - ArgentinaGlobal Futures Collective Intelligence Systems

Updating Global Challenges, FRM, and previous workReal-Time Delphi - New ImprovementsCollaborative tools for the Nodes

12:45 Lunch 1:45 Node Highlights 3:45 Break 4:00 Node Highlights 5:00 Adjourn 5:30 Potential Sponsors meeting 7:00 Dinner

Agenda Friday July 27, 2012

9:00 Node Highlights (continued)

10:15 MP information systems

10:45 Break

11:00 Review priorities

Fundraising

Strengthen Nodes (Nat. SOFI, collaborate research, conf. Educ,

Global Futures CIS Promotion Strategy

2012 SOF Promotion, reviews, blogs, launches

Futures encyclopedia dictionary

12:45 Lunch

1:30 Create Questions for Group Discussions

2:00 Group Discussions

4:00 Group Discussion Reports

5:30 Final comments by all

6:00 Adjourn

7:00 WFS Conference Opening

Accomplishments

• 2012 State of the Future

• New Nodes• Global Futures Collective Intelligence System • RTD Studies• Publications• Misc.

• CD• Kindle• In Global Futures CIS

• USB drive• Download• Print on demand

46 Millennium Project Nodes...

are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views

in:

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

New Nodes – New Total 46 Nodes

• Romania• Uruguay • South East Europe

• Slovenia, Montenegro, Serbia

• East Europe Node• Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland

• Potentials: • Hungary Denmark Nigeria• Caribbean Sudan (also Southern Sudan)• Costa Rica Guatemala Central America

Global Futures CIS

• Interoperable, Searchable, Editable• For each of the 15 Global Challenges

• Expert Discussion Groups• Bookmarklet scanning system• Use of RSS News Feeds Aggregator• Key web resources• Situation Chart to update and improve• Short and Long text to update and Improve• Related computer models

• Futures Research Methodology • 39 Chapters with groups to update and improve

• All previous MP research • Software (Models, Delphi, Futures Wheel, SOFI, Papers, briefings, Video)

Real-Time Delphi Studies

• Azerbaijan for AZ-SOFI• Global Trends of Women Stereotypes• Future of Cooperatives 2030 • Future of Agro-Industries • 2012 Global SOFI• Global Futures CIS –Internal MP study• Azerbaijan students' SOFI• Experiments• Pending: Dominican Republic for DR-SOFI• S Africa (?)• Women’s SOFI

Publications

Special Issue of Foresight Journal by the Millennium Project (UK)Special Issue of the Journal of Futures Studies Australia Node 15 GC (Taiwan)

UN Global Compact annual report chapter on CIS (Mediengruppe Macondo)

WFS conference volume – SOFIReferenced and Appendix in UN World Water Development ReportMeteorological Information 15 Global Challenges Korean text book

Forthcoming PublicationsChapter in Future book for BBVA (Spain)Future Media chapter in Journal of Futures Studies (Taiwan)FUTURES dictionary/encyclopedia New Media and Society to use 15 GC, Score Card, Future Arts/Media Collaboration with von der Gracht: RTD Experience, Expertise

Misc.:

• Comisión del Futuro, Senate of Chile• Compterworld Magazine Laureate • Tele-nation (Tele-Montenegro)• Discussions with Random House/Crown Group• 15 Global Challenges Curriculum with

Malaysia

MP Gets Computerworld Magazine Lauriat Recognition

Reid Hoffman Founder of LinkedIn

PRWeb Press Releases

• Sept 1 to April 20 there were 23 releases• Averaging: 1,347 reads (30,986 total); • Averaging 72 pickups (1,659 total); • Averaging 239 online interactions (5,492 total)

• Write press releases from now until September 1 - unlimited from now until then

2012 SOFI Highlights

• Some variables were replaced • Fresh expert judgments • Historical data were updated• New curve fit equations • TIA developments were revised• Best and worst estimates in equation choice• “Sparkline” sketches

2012 State of the Future Index

What caused the drop 2003-2008?

• The greatest impact came from – The income gap, “Economic income inequality (share

of top 1%),” which doubled from earlier values.

• Also changing:– R&D expenditures dropped– Percentage of electricity from renewable sources

relative to non renewable dropped– The number of people killed or injured in terrorist

attacks rose

Where are we winning?

Where is Humanity Winning

Where are we losing?

Where is Humanity Loosing?

Where there is no significant change or change is not clear

1. Corruption2. Freedom rights 3. Electricity from renewables4. Forest lands 5. R&D expenditures 6. Physicians per capita

Equivocal, Little Change

Overly Optimistic

Overly Pessimistic

Too Optimistic

Too Pessimistic

Too Pessimistic

Not Too Pessimistic or Optimistic; Potential Denouements More Likely to Improve Rather than Worsen the Percent

SOFI Research Directions

• Expanded uses of User Data• Regional SOFI (public policy, competitiveness)• Improved SOFI computation (e.g.,TIA, expertise, policy

opportunities)

• RTD Surveys• SOFI Country ranks• Correlation SOFI/ Public opinion polls• Better IFS historical data• Future oriented thinking SOFI (Pavel)• Sectorial, corporate SOFI

100-Year Gender Stereotypes Changes

• Three categories:– Beliefs about gender social and economic equity– Beliefs about woman’s rights– Beliefs about societal and emotional aspects

• Three questions about the 39 stereotypes:– Assume opinion poll: is stereotype true.? What

percentage would have said they believed it in 1961, in 2011, and in 2016?

– What is the role of the media?– What is the respondent’s personal belief?

Decreasingly Believed 1961-2061

• Women must obey and submit to their husband or male companion.

• Wives need to be beaten occasionally.• Men should have certain rights that are not

available to women. • Men should have priority in access to

education.

Increasingly Believed 1961-2061

• Women have the right to decide on issues related to their ow n health and bodies.

• Women should have the right to divorce. • Single women manage better than single men.• Equal work deserves equal pay• Women have the right to decide whether and

when to have children.• Independent women increase family social status• Women should be included in conflict resolution.

Interesting Relationships

Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria&

The Millennium Project

The Future of Food & Agribusiness in Argentina, 2030

140 questions:

• Elements that will impact the future of agribusiness and SMEs

• in Argentina and the world

• Technologies and policies that could be important for their future development

• Institutional limitations

• Likelihood of occurrence

Highlights – Future Agribusiness

• 19,907 entries• High degree of commonality of the developments judged as having the

highest future impact on Argentine agribusiness & SMEs.• public policies which foster technological innovation • long-term strategic planning between the public and private sector

• High likelihood of occurring by 2016:• Production be stimulated by higher consumer demands• Regulations adopted to stimulate technological innovation• Quality management systems implemented

• Potentially occurring after 2026:• Implementation of long-term strategic planning• Synergistic public-private strategies development• Application of some technologies (e.g. ohmic heating)

• Most “never” estimates: “The global economic crisis will reduce the trend of rising food demand.”

Collective Intelligence

• It is an emergent property• from synergies among

• data/info/knowledge• software/hardware• experts and others with insight

• that continually learns from feedback• to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better

decisions• than these elements acting alone.

Each can change the other

Global Futures CIS

• Interoperable, Searchable, Editable• For each of the 15 Global Challenges

• Expert Discussion Groups• Bookmarklet scanning system• Use of RSS News Feeds Aggregator• Key web resources• Situation Chart to update and improve• Short and Long text to update and Improve• Related computer models

• Futures Research Methodology • 39 Chapters with groups to update and improve

• All previous MP research

Global Futures CIS (continued)

• Additional Elements• New Real-Time Delphi 2.0 Software• Node Collaborative Tools• Video conferencing • Papers, briefings, Video

• All previous MP Website Information• Internal MPPC RTD on CIS raw data:

http://themp.info/rtd/mps_global_futures_collective_intelligence_system_rtd_working_notes/export/report/

Question 1.1 Do you think this approach will improve the ability of The Millennium Project to achieve its mission?

• 50: Almost certainly 34%, Very Likely 54%, Not sure 9%• More than just SOF and FRM online, it Increases participation,

increases MP information utility• Allows MP to stay on top of change in a more timely manner. • More sustainable than once-a-year reports• Will be used a fundamental resource for research; scanning

capability and experience of the global brain• Avoid data soup with easy navigation• What about those who won’t use it?• CDs and print on demand are still possible, but CD uses is falling• Who is the target audience(s) who will be influenced by this

approach? How do we create a MP CIS for identifying target users and identifying how to make the CIS even more relevant to target markets?

Will you use it?

• 49: Yes 31%, very much 28%, not sure 4%• Access on my smart phone with me all the time, while

not using or have SoF with me everyday• Fantastic global brain interaction• Valuable for scanning, updating research, teacher

preparation, stimulates thinking• Future-oriented, sustainable, but make it simple or will

get info elsewhere.

More Useful that SOF or FRM?

• 49: More useful 46%, Much more 24% same 24%, less 4%

• SOF/FRM only small part of CIS• Up-to-date characteristics attractive, advantage• Searching everything, RTD, listservs, discussions, better

than what we have today• The book is an event, people look forward to, enhances

the MP Brand. Many other sources, albeit not as credible, but might be easier for them to feel that they are getting enough 'futures' insight.

• Print highlights, journal articles, etc. from the CIS

Will you use it more than SoF/FRM?

• 48: More 43%, same 39%, not sure 12%, less 2%• Because everything is searchable

What should we charge per year for full access?

Individuals, consultants, professors $106

Government agencies $856

UN/other International organizations $805

Corporations $2,116

NGOs and universities $418

Free for participants/content reviewers…free for all…charge business…no charge no value

Nodes' Sales and Commissions

• 27% Average sales commission• 51% How likely is it your Node will sell it? • Comments: We already sell SOF and FRM

now...We would sell an annual access to at least 3 organizations…more than 3 per year…Interest might me more than we anticipate now…Depends on the attractiveness of the site

How CIS will improve MP ?

• Will greatly improve the quality of the longer versions of the 15 Global Challenges – more time, greater participation, feedback systems

• Each Challenge gets:• Text• Scanning System• Models

• Situation Chart• Discussion Group• News Feeds

Biggest Obstacles to Success

• Competition (comment not real, but perceived)• Lack of Interest in general (comment – awareness)• Price, perception that it is free elsewhere• Perception of benefits• Complexity• Finding the right person in gov., corp., univ.,• Great briefing tool for any discussion group, give free to

UN and Staff

How to Over Come Obstacles• Be clear on benefits, promotional visits, • Clear, crisp marketing, Global Futures CIS Brochure for Nodes to use,

marketing person write up the benefits• Benefits to each category, price is not the prime mover.• Be best content, user friendly, intuitive, trustworthy• Make it simple, shot 3-5 minute video introduction available on

YouTube, send the link on social media.• Examples, vignettes of its use, helping research and scenarios. • Build communities of interest for each element (State of the Future,

RTD, scanning, discussions, models, etc.)• Great briefing tool for any discussion group; market it as a that way, as

a great briefing tool• More visual thematic approach • Attractive highlights from text • Work from existing customer base, give them first year discounts• Making it clear how different from others• Different plans for different regions/countries

What could your Node do?

• Make it part of our project portfolio• Use it ourselves in client projects and teaching• Make presentations to potential buyers.• Hold CIS launches like SOF launches• Make YouTube video, put it on our Node website• Write press releases using material from the CIS• Promote it the Prospective Foresight Network • We will create marketing strategy.• Make info available via our newsletters• talk about it to policymakers and professionals• training as a simulation of prospects and sellers. We can offer this

to our industry guilds at a discount to professionals• We can advertise it on our 50,000/day visitor site in Korea