Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project

Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project

Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007

Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of ScienceRussian Node of the Millennium Project

Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko

Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]

2007 Minnesota, U.S.

Russian Node Report

July 2006- July 2007

DR. Nadezhda GaponenkoHead of Department, Center of Science

Development Study under the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Director, Russian Node of the Millennium Project, AC/UNU

ProjectsProjects Nanotechnology Foresight

Methodology Sectoral Innovation System in

Nanotech in Globalized Economy Foresight : Theoretical and

Methodological Foundation Nanoscience of Russia Innovation Policy for the Building

adoptive SIS in Nanotech Business Incubators in the National

System of Innovation European Scenarios for the GEO

UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (contribution)


Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of SciencesDirector, Russian Node of the Millennium Project

Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko2007 Minnesota, U.S.



PublicationsPublications Nanotechnology : Foresight (ed. N. Gaponenko).

Economy & Law Press, Moscow, 2006, pp.265 Business Incubators in the National System of

Innovation (ed. N. Gaponenko). Economy & Law Press, Moscow, 2006, pp.235

1. Gaponenko N. “Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology”. Paper presented to the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision Making, September 2006

2. Gaponenko, N. Russian Nanotech Foresight Initiatives, The European Foresight Monitoring Network, 2006

3. Gaponenko, N. Nanoscience : Global & Regional Trends and National Initiatives. In “Science, Innovation and Education”, Parad Press, 2006, pp. 304-320

4. Gaponenko, N. Mission of Business Incubators in the National System of Innovation. In Innovations in Russia : Future and The Past, Moscow Univ. Press, 2006

5. Small Russian Future Studies Encyclopedia, Moscow, 2006 (contribution)






PresentationsPresentations Gaponenko, N. Global Challenges and Growing

Uncertainties, Dialogue West –East, Integration and Development, Moscow, President Hotel, July, 2006

Gaponenko N. “Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology”. International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision Making, September 2006

Gaponenko, N. Innovation Cycles : Towards the Third Generation of Business Incubators, Kondratieff Conference, Moscow, October, 2006

Gaponenko, N. Methodology for Nanotechnology Foresight, International Future Academy, March, 2007

Gaponenko, N. Global Challenges and Regional Strategies, Dialogue West –East, Integration and

Development, Delhi, January, 2007






Contribution to Contribution to Millennium Project & Millennium Project &

Nodes’ ActivityNodes’ ActivitySOFI – StudyReal- time DelphiLatin America Energy Delphi





Suggestions to MPSuggestions to MP

State of S&T Future Index– Outbreak of Technological

Foresight Programs around the world

– Scenarios are a part of Foresight Programs; coupled with Delphi

– Indicators for scenario quantification is a white sport

– Modeling is at the initial stageNanotechnology positive &

negative impact on economy, environment and human being

Global & Regional R&D Global & Regional R&D Expenditures’ TrendsExpenditures’ Trends

Phenomena of R&D expenditure trends in nano

– budget R&D expenditures on “nano”grow faster than budget appropriations on R&D

– Although nano-market is at the initial stage as far as both basic and applied research are concentrated in public sector corporate R&D expenditures grow faster than the public ones and in North America they exceed the public investments in nanotechnology

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2003 2004 2005 2006

Global public and private investments in nanotechnology,

2003-2006( U.S. $ million)

Total investments GovernmentCorporate Venture capital

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

NorthAmerica

Asia EU othercountries

Public and privat investments in nanotechnology, 2005 (U.S. $ billion)

GovernmentCorporateбюджетные инвестиции в нанонауку*

Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko


Corporate R&D expenditures Corporate R&D expenditures trends in different regions of trends in different regions of

the worldthe world

Phenomena of R&D expenditure trends in nano– Corporate R&D

expenditures grow fast in all regions of the world

– Share of Asia and in particular “other countries” increases

Corporate R&D expenditures by the regions of the world, 2004,

(U.S. $ billion)

1,1

0,3

0,71,7

USA Japan EU orhet countries

Corporate R&D expenditures by the regions of the world, 2005

(U.S. $ billion)

1,9

0,7

1,7

0,85

USA Asia EU other countries

Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences



Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SISin Russian Nanotech SIS

Nanotech are in governmental priorities

R&D on nano -scale are supported by varios national, regional and departmental programs

Special role in civilian R&D financing play Ministry of Science and Education of the RF, Russian Academy of Sciences and in basic research - the Russian Foundation of Fundamental Studies.

Building public-private partnership is in the focus to stimulate private investment in nanotech

0 700 1400 2100

Public investments in Nanotechnology

(U.S.$ million; $1=1euro)

9,4

6,3

5,62

5,42

4,33

3,1

2,83

2,69

2,62

2,53

2,2

5,4

0 2 4 6 8 10

Taiwan

Japan

Korea

USA

Ireland

Israel

Germany

Singapore

France

NL

UK

Russia

Government nanotech funding per capita at purchasing-power parity, 2004; Russia-

2006(U.S.$)




Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends

in Russian Nanotechin Russian Nanotech SIS SIS

R&D organizations are concentrated in the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)(about 40%)

Presidium of the RAS supports 7 interdisciplinary programs and pushes this way the interdisciplinary networks

10% of R&D organizations refer to private sector

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Russian

Academy of

Sciences

Univ ersity Departmental

R&D

organizations

Priv ate sector

Break down of R&D Organizations by Sectors

0

100

200

300

Asia EU NorthAmerica

Russia

R&D organizations around the world




Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends

in Russian Nanotechin Russian Nanotech SIS SIS

One may observe the super concentration of R&D capacity in nano-materials




Fig. 9. Break down of R&D organizations by nanofields (in %)

20

9

6

27

58

nanomaterials

nanoelectronics

nanoenergy

nanobio

nanometrology

Specific Characteristics of Specific Characteristics of SIS in NanotechnologySIS in Nanotechnology

Emerging, fragmented at the initial stage With potential huge impact on NIS, structural

shifts in economy, national competitiveness Marked by the institutional gaps, setting up

of new firms and non-firm organization, emergence of networks, learning regime and consolidation of technologies

Knowledge dynamic is an engine of SIS formation





Knowledge base

– interdisciplinary– cross-sectoral– not coherent science

field characterized by enormous thematic breadth

– most important sub-disciplines: applied physics, material science, physical chemistry, physics of condensed matter, chemistry, molecular biology

– structural shifts from physics towards material science, polymer chemistry and chemistry

– research on nano-scale are not purely fundamental nor fully applied (use-inspired research)

Sectoral R&D system

– setting up of interdisciplinary nanotechnology centers and centers of excellence around the world

– expensive scientific infrastructure

– both basic & applied science is concentrated in public sector

– consequences of knowledge commercialization (both positive and negative) are not well explored





Technology– emerging– disruptive– science-based

technology– not coherent

field

Nano-market– emerging & fragmented– fast developing– In 2005, there were about

1480 companies with significant predominance of USA (about 825 companies), Germany (100) and UK (98)

– Key players at the world market: SMEs and start- up, R&D organizations and some well known corporations

– In U.S. – dominance of SMEs and start-up; in EU, Asia and Russia- R&D organizations

Networks

–interdisciplinary

–overlapping




Building Balanced Building Balanced and Adoptive SIS and Adoptive SIS

Common measures implemented around the world

– Orientation on institutional gaps– Setting up interdisciplinary research

centers– Supporting information infrastructure– Investment in scientific infrastructure– Supporting networks building– Investment in human capacity building

(training courses)– Coordination of actions between

different departments




Building Balanced and Building Balanced and Adoptive SISAdoptive SIS

(regions’ specific measures)(regions’ specific measures)

USA– dual oriented

technologies and high share of defense sector

– Orientation on molecular technologies (bottom-up approach)

European Union

– Development of Pan-European Nano – area

– Patent system– Building nanotech

platforms– Public-private

partnership– Supporting spin-

offs




Building Balanced and Building Balanced and Adoptive SISAdoptive SIS

(regions’ specific measures)(regions’ specific measures)

Asia Pacific – Nano-

standardization initiatives (China)

– Strong accents on commercialization (Taiwan)

– Nanotech Roadmaps initiated by corporations (Japan, 2003)

Russia– Setting-up

governmental nano-corporation

Latin America– Millennium centers

supported by World Bank (Brazil)

– Partnership with Lucent Technology (USA) for commercialization (Argentina)




What drives nano-market and What drives nano-market and push corporations to invest in push corporations to invest in

nano-scale research?nano-scale research? Market expectations Growing competition at the

electronics market Aggregation of energy problems

( high prices & call for environmentally friendly technology)

Promise of some social issues solution (cancer, diabetes, early diagnostic, and the like)

Lack of innovations out of “nano”, which potentially could yield significant revenue




Russian SIS in Nanotech: Russian SIS in Nanotech: institutional set upinstitutional set up

President of the RF

State Duma Government Council of Federation

Ministry of Science&Education

Ministry of Defense

Ministry of Industry and Energy

Ministry of ICT

Atomic Energy Agency

Ministry of Finance

General P

olicy making

Science, Innovation &

Technology P

olicy Form

ulation and F

inancing

Regional Authorities

Other

GovernmentalNanotech Council (2007)

Russian Space Agency

Ministry of EconomicAffairs Interdepartmental Nanotech Coordination Group (2006)

Russian Foundationfor Basic Research

Russian Foundationfor Promotion

of SMEs in S&T

Russian Foundationfor Technological

Development

Venture FundsInvested in Nanotech

(11)

Private fundsPublic funds

Foundation for Supporting Russian

scienceONEKSIM group

Foundation

International funds

International S&T center

Financial Infrastructure

Public R&D organizations

Academic research institute (104)Universities (80)

Departmental R&D organizations (56)

Private R&D Organizations (26)

Scientific infrastructure

Nanotech centers (42)

Know

ledge productionK

nowledge transfer&

comm

ercialization

Specialized incubators (2) Center for technology Transfer in Nanotech

(12)

Interdepartmental S&T Council for the Development Nanotechnology &Nanomaterials (2005)

Sectors of econom

y

20 spin-offs company

Public Nanotech

Corporation




Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SISin Russian Nanotech SIS

Ventura capital investments are still small but are growing fast

ANEKSIM group Space tech, energy, aircraft




Conclusions Conclusions SIS in Nanotech is looking for trajectories and is marked by

diversity and lacking coherence of nanofield in the current embryonic stage

Althougy nanotech are scince-driven technologies but to some degree they are pushed by existing industry boarder and are path dependent; at the same time they already drive interdisciplinary and crossectoral networks, will change knowledge foundation of NIS, mode of Industry-Academy relation and condition structural shifts in economy

Private sector plays a vital role in emerging SIS; it provides huge contribution to knowledge production; high tech companies push interdisciplinary networks and contribute to the formation of new mode of Academy-Industry relations

Public authorities measures are oriented on the development of information infrastructure, training courses, supporting networks and “filling” institutional gaps in SIS and this way they open the window for private sector

Cultural issues play a significant role in trajectory of SIS development



Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected] Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

Nanotech Nanotech Foresight Foresight

Methods & toolsMethods & toolsAnalytical stage

S&M Benchmarking SWOT

Exploration of Nanotech future

Delphi

Technology roadmapping

Scenarios

S&T platform

Strategy Strategic technology Policy mechanisms

Delphi for knowledge Delphi for knowledge accumulation and linking accumulation and linking science push& demand science push& demand

pullpull approachesapproaches

Researches•Nanotech impact on S&T domains•Possible negative impact•Scientific & technical barriers•S&T mechanisms•Spheres of application

Corporations•Market demand& market barriers•Spheres of application•Impact on the competitiveness•Policy mechanisms

Policy- makers•Public demand•Institutional& legislative barriers•Policy mechanisms

Innovation’s users•Importance for the solution of social and env. issues• Cultural barriers

Delphi like a dialogue Delphi like a dialogue and learning processand learning process

Questionnaire developmentMultidisciplinarybrainstorming

workshop

Round 1(sending out Quest.)

Round 1(results)

List of experts with radically different judgmentsInterviews

Round 2(Quest. development &sending out)

Round 2results

Scenario logicScenario logicIdentification and mapping

key problems, important for the decision making

Driving forces mutual impact exploration

Time scale of events– Social, economic and

environmental events– Technological events

Turning points in technological trajectory

Time scale of eventsTime scale of events

S&T PlatformS&T Platform

Strategic goals

State of the art

Strategy background

Strategic technologies for the programming funding

Plan of actions and policy mechanisms

Normative scenariosStakeholders workshop

trees

Benchmarking, SWOT

scenariosMorphological analyses; stakeholders’ workshop

Delphi, scenarios; technological roadmaps

Stakeholders’ workshop

Delphi, scenarios Stakeholders’ workshop

Methodology is Methodology is designed:designed:

to link science push and demand pull approaches

to provide dialogue and learning process between different stakeholders

to link future studies with policy- making to collect the judgments of different

stakeholders and innovations’ users for the providing comprehensive assessment of coming nanotechnology

to select nanotechnology for the programming finding

to formulate policy mechanisms like dialogue between different stakeholders as well as the fields for the public- private partnership

to form the information base for the corporations’ strategic planning. The design of Foresight program like a dialogue forms also conditions for the building networks and public- private partnership

Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project

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