The Market Today and Business Valuation. 2 ● 2011 Global economy worth 69,659,626 million US...
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Transcript of The Market Today and Business Valuation. 2 ● 2011 Global economy worth 69,659,626 million US...
Ave 4 offers per project up from 2 in 2010. Sales increased by 50%
Demand but why?
The Market Today and Business Valuation
Avondale - master brokerage in commercial business sales,
acquisitions & strategy- Team of 30.
2
● 2011 Global economy worth 69,659,626 million US dollars.
● The United Kingdom is world’s 7th largest economy.
● Over 300,000 companies in UK employ more than 6 people.
Advanced economies no longer driving global GDP growth
Source: IMF,
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
percentage change on a year ago
Emerging and developing economies
Advanced economies
World
Global market
The UK M&A market
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1981
1992
2011
Sources: data stream- merger market
Spare capacity increases competitive factors and creates driver for consolidation and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity. Interest rates low to 2015?
UK output- Recovery lagging last two recessions and volatile
Weak credit arena/volatility creating drag.
Overall 2011 M&A activity (by value) increased on 2010 with Europe most active due to consolidation. Activity down 30% on 2007 but down only 10% in sub £250m arena. 1st qtr 2012 on a par 2011.
Reasons to buy• Drive shareholder value• Buy, build and sell • Interest rates low• Organic slow down
Business drivers• Quality with
sustainable earning• Increase market
share/ product base/ skills
1+1+1 = 6
Reasons to sell • Retirement/health• Lifestyle changes• Capitalise on assets
Business drivers• Lack of succession• Underperformance• Investment • Entrepreneur’s Relief
10%- £10m
Leap of faith
Transaction Drivers
Buyerand seller
drivers.
P/E
Earnings
Valuation methodsDiscounted cash-flowIP/capital projects/Start ups
Price Earnings Ratio (multiples)PBIT/EBITDA
What profits?Sustainable/art
RevalueWhat assets?
Include net assetsDebt free/cash free/
Value Influencers
Key DriversRecurring revenue/loyalty clientsCompany positioning (Brand) Scale-abilityIntellectual propertyManagement track record/skillsCapital requirements
Economies and synergy
Sale Process employed(strategic buyer)
Risk, certainty and return on investment
P/E Multiples
Multiples (years earnings)
50k 250k 500k 750k 1,500k 2,500k 3,500k
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Most likely
Least likely
PBIT/EBITDA £000’s
Financial Buyer Strategic Buyer
Adjusted Profits- exampleExample hire business 31/12/2010 Multiple Influencers
Turnover £1,850,000
Gross £746,976
Operating Profit £177,725
Adjustments to net profit
Directors pension £3,600
Spouse salary (non operational) £21,859.00
Directors remuneration (part-time/strategic role) £78,005 In top 5 brands in UK
NI On Directors £7,800 Scalable/expanding niche
Additional rental -£15,000 Strong systems
Bank interest £639Balance sheet with surplus removed £220,000
Factoring £16,806 Good forecast/client list
Hire purchase interest £3,542
Amortisation (of goodwill) £21,600
Depreciation real cost hire co
Adjusted PBIT under management £316,576.00 X pre-tax multiple 4 = £1. 26 ml
Forecast Value- example
CalculationNet x multiple = £_______ (debt free cash free)
£316,576 x 4 = £1.26 mil (debt free cash free)
Actual 2011Marketed on Offers
5 Offers
Offer achieved £1.7 million
All cash strategic deal
Dutch co seeking UK base.
Deal StructureDeals Structure effects multiplesEarn-outs common
RulesAvoid profit relatedGross Profit easier to calculateReverse Non Compete clause
Performance related paymentsCan help buyers hedge risk
Multiple Influencer
Secure the RisksGuarantees/Debentures/ChargesAccess to RecordsMaterially same as presentEscrow