The Iowa Caucus

11
John Ainsley February 1, 2012 The Iowa Caucus

description

The Iowa Caucus. John Ainsley February 1, 2012. The Importance of Iowa. First state in the country to have a caucus or primary Media Attention Momentum Results could make or break a candidates campaign. A Little Room For Debate. Pros: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of The Iowa Caucus

Page 1: The Iowa Caucus

John Ainsley

February 1, 2012

The Iowa Caucus

Page 2: The Iowa Caucus

• First state in the country to have a caucus or primary• Media Attention• Momentum• Results could make or break a candidates campaign

The Importance of Iowa

Page 3: The Iowa Caucus

• Pros:• Voters will get more information before they cast their vote• More motivated participants in a caucus• Everybody's vote will count due to realigning with stronger

candidates. • Cons:• Democratic participants have to cast their vote out loud.• Very time consuming• No absentee ballots.

A Little Room For Debate

Page 4: The Iowa Caucus

• Conservative Candidates.• Both Social and Fiscally

Who Typically Does Well?

Page 5: The Iowa Caucus

• Victorious Democrats:• 1976: Uncommitted-37%, Jimmy Carter*-28%• 1980: Jimmy Carter- 59%, Ted Kennedy- 31%• 1984: Walter Mondale- 49%, Gary Hart- 17%• 1988: Dick Gephardt- 31%, Paul Simon- 27%, Michael Dukakis-

22%• 1992: Tom Harkin- 76%, Uncommitted-12%, Paul Tsongas- 4%, Bill

Clinton*- 3%• 1996: Bill Clinton*- 98%, Uncommitted-1%, Ralph Nader-1%• 2000: Al Gore- 63%, Bill Bradley-37%• 2004: John Kerry- 38%, John Edwards- 32%• 2008: Barack Obama*- 38%, John Edwards-30%, Hillary Clinton-

29%

• Success in choosing the party nominee: 66%

Iowa Through The Years

Page 6: The Iowa Caucus

• Victorious Republicans• 1976 (Straw Poll of Sample of 62 Precincts): Gerald Ford- 264,

Ronald Reagan- 248• 1980: George H.W. Bush- 32%, Ronald Reagan*- 30%• 1984: Ronald Reagan*-Unopposed• 1988: Bob Dole-37%, Pat Robertson-25%, George H.W. Bush*-

19%• 1992: George H.W. Bush- Unopposed• 1996: Bob Dole- 26%, Pat Buchanan-23%• 2000: George W. Bush*- 41%, Steve Forbes -31%• 2004: George W. Bush*- Unopposed• 2008: Mike Huckabee-34%, Mitt Romney-25%, Fred Thompson-13%,

John McCain-13%

• Success in choosing the party nominee: 66%

Iowa Through The Years (continued)

Page 7: The Iowa Caucus

• Republicans: Democrats:• Mitt Romney Barack Obama• Newt Gingrich• Ron Paul• Michele Bachmann• Rick Santorum• Jon Huntsman• Rick Perry

The Candidates in 2012

Page 8: The Iowa Caucus

July 5 (Mason-Dixon Polling)Bachmann-32%, Romney-29%, Santorum-6%, Paul-3%, Gingrich-2%, Cain-1%, Huntsman-0%, Perry-0% August 4 (Rasmussen Reports)Bachmann-22%, Romney-21%, Paul-16%, Perry-12%, Gingrich-5%, Cain-4%, Huntsman-2%, Santorum- --August 31 (Rasmussen Reports)Perry-29%, Bachmann-18%, Romney-17%, Paul-14%, Santorum-4%, Cain-4%, Huntsman-3%, Gingrich-2%October 3 (NBC News)Romney-26%, Cain-20%, Paul-12%, Bachmann-11%, Perry-11%, Gingrich-5%, Santorum-3%, Huntsman-1%November 3 (Insider Advantage)Cain-30%, Romney-15%, Gingrich-12%, Paul-9%, Bachmann-8%, Perry-6%, Santorum-5%, Huntsman-2%

Leading Up to January 3rd

Page 9: The Iowa Caucus

November 30th (CBS News)Gingrich-31%, Romney-17%, Paul-16%, Perry-11%, Bachmann-9%, Santorum-4%, Huntsman-1%.December 13 (Rasmussen Reports)Romney-23%, Gingrich-20%, Paul-18%, Perry-10%, Bachmann-9%, Santorum-6%, Huntsman-5%December 27 (NBC News)Romney-23%, Paul-21%, Santorum-15%, Perry-14%, Gingrich-13%, Bachmann-6%, Huntsman-2%

A Month Before the Big Day

Page 10: The Iowa Caucus

• Republicans: Democrats:• Rick Santorum- 25% ( 29,839 votes) Barack

Obama- Unopposed• Mitt Romney- 25% (29,805 votes)• Ron Paul- 21% (26,036 votes)• Newt Gingrich- 13% (16,163 votes)• Rick Perry-10% (12,557 votes)• Michele Bachmann- 5% (6,046 votes)• Jon Huntsman- .6% (739 votes)

2012: The Results

Page 11: The Iowa Caucus

• Dollars spent on TV adds per vote.• Santorum: 15 Dollars• Romney: 132 Dollars• Paul: 52 Dollars• Gingrich: 29 Dollars• Perry: 332 Dollars• Bachmann: 10 Dollars• Huntsman: 0 Dollars

• Total Spent on TV adds• Santorum: $448,035• Romney: $3,934,260• Paul: $1,353,872• Gingrich: $468,727• Perry: $4,168,924• Bachmann: $60,460• Huntsman: $0

Campaign Spending $ $ $