Iowa Republican Caucus Poll 1/31/16 - Opinion...
50
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll 1/31/16 Sponsor(s) N/A Target Population Iowa registered voters; Republican; likely caucus- goers Sampling Method Blended sample; mixed mode: Likely Republican caucus-goers were selected from a list of registered voters. Only voters determined likely to attend the 2016 Republican caucus were included in the sample. Landline: registered voters were contacted on the evenings of January 29 th and January 30 th , 2016 using an interactive voice response system. Mobile: registered voters were contacted on the evenings of January 29 th and January 30 th , 2016 on their mobile devices. Respondents answered an identical survey in visual form. Selection & Weighting Two questions served as selection variables. The first question asked whether the respondent intends to attend a caucus on February 1 st ; all responses other than “definitely” were excluded from the dataset. The second question asked whether the respondent knew where their caucus will be held (e.g. church, school); all responses of “I don’t know” were excluded from the dataset. The poll was weighted for age, race, gender, and evangelism using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using a combination of previous exit polls, primary voter turnout, external analysis and internal projections. Total Number of Respondents 887 Margin of Error ±3.2% (95% confidence)
Transcript of Iowa Republican Caucus Poll 1/31/16 - Opinion...
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Sponsor(s) N/A
Target Population Iowa registered voters; Republican; likely caucus-goers
Sampling Method Blended sample; mixed mode: Likely Republican caucus-goers were selected from a list of registered voters. Only voters determined likely to attend the 2016 Republican caucus were included in the sample. Landline: registered voters were contacted on the evenings of January 29th and January 30th, 2016 using an interactive voice response system. Mobile: registered voters were contacted on the evenings of January 29th and January 30th, 2016 on their mobile devices. Respondents answered an identical survey in visual form.
Selection & Weighting Two questions served as selection variables. The first question asked whether the respondent intends to attend a caucus on February 1st; all responses other than “definitely” were excluded from the dataset. The second question asked whether the respondent knew where their caucus will be held (e.g. church, school); all responses of “I don’t know” were excluded from the dataset. The poll was weighted for age, race, gender, and evangelism using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using a combination of previous exit polls, primary voter turnout, external analysis and internal projections.
Total Number of Respondents 887
Margin of Error ±3.2% (95% confidence)
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
1. How likely are you to attend a caucus to determine the 2016 Republican nominee for president?
a) I will definitely attend b) I am considering attending [EXCLUDED] c) I do not plan on attending [EXCLUDED]
Likely
Frequency Percent
Definitely 887 100.0
2. If the 2016 Iowa caucus to determine the Republican nominee for president were held today and your choices were [RANDOMIZED]: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZED TO MATCH LIST] a) Jeb Bush b) Ben Carson c) Chris Christie d) Ted Cruz e) Carly Fiorina f) Mike Huckabee g) John Kasich h) Rand Paul i) Marco Rubio j) Rick Santorum k) Donald Trump
First Choice
Frequency Percent
Bush 43 4.9
Carson 80 9.0
Christie 27 3.0
Cruz 172 19.4
Fiorina 34 3.8
Huckabee 39 4.4
Kasich 36 4.0
Paul 76 8.6
Rubio 165 18.6
Santorum 18 2.1
Trump 178 20.1
Undecided 20 2.2
Total 887 100.0
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
3. If the 2016 Iowa caucus to determine the Republican nominee for president were held today who would be your second choice? [RANDOMIZED TO MATCH Q2] a) Jeb Bush b) Ben Carson c) Chris Christie d) Ted Cruz e) Carly Fiorina f) Mike Huckabee g) John Kasich h) Rand Paul i) Marco Rubio j) Rick Santorum k) Donald Trump
Second Choice
Frequency Percent
Bush 84 9.4
Carson 117 13.3
Christie 59 6.7
Cruz 129 14.5
Fiorina 58 6.6
Huckabee 51 5.7
Kasich 23 2.6
Paul 80 9.0
Rubio 142 16.0
Santorum 21 2.4
Trump 81 9.2
Undecided 41 4.7
Total 887 100.0
4. Did you watch the Republican nominee debate hosted by Fox News on January 28th? a) Yes b) No
Watch Debate
Frequency Percent
Yes 570 64.3
No 317 35.7
Total 887 100.0
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
5. [If Q4 = “No”] Did you watch Donald Trump’s veterans event held on January 28th? a) Yes b) No
Watch Trump Event
Frequency Percent
Yes 100 31.7
No 216 68.3
Total 317 100.0
6. What is your age? a) 18-29 b) 30-44 c) 45-64 d) 65+
Age
Frequency Percent
18-29 142 16.0
30-44 212 24.0
45-64 302 34.0
65+ 231 26.0
Total 887 100.0
7. What is your race or ethnicity? a) White b) African-American c) Hispanic/Latino d) Other
Race
Frequency Percent
White 869 98.0
African - American 9 1.0
Hispanic / Latino 4 .5
Other 5 .5
Total 887 100.0
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16 8. What is your gender?
a) Male b) Female
Gender
Frequency Percent
Male 505 57.0
Female 381 43.0
Total 887 100.0
9. How would you describe your political ideology? a) Very conservative b) Somewhat conservative c) Moderate d) Somewhat liberal e) Very liberal f) I am undecided or I don’t know
Ideology
Frequency Percent
Very Conservative 381 43.0
Somewhat Conservative 309 34.9
Moderate 149 16.8
Somewhat Liberal 4 .5
Very Liberal 18 2.0
Don't know 25 2.8
Total 887 100.0
10. Do you consider yourself to be an evangelical Christian? a) Yes b) No
Evangelism
Frequency Percent
Yes 422 47.5
No 465 52.5
Total 887 100.0
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
11. Where will your caucus be held? a) At a school b) At a church c) At a community center d) I don’t know [EXCLUDED]
Caucus Location
Frequency Percent
School 488 55.1
Church 107 12.0
Community Center 178 20.1
Other 113 12.8
Total 887 100.0
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
First Choice Bush 13.1% 5.9% 18.3% .8% 6.8% 8.7% 2.9% 2.5% 4.7%
Carson 3.6% 1.7% 6.7% 15.5% 11.9% 13.5% 4.3% 2.5% 10.7% 10.0% 12.3% 15.0% 8.9%
Christie 1.7% 3.3% .8% 8.7% 10.0% 2.5% 5.0% 2.8%
Cruz 6.0% 33.9% 3.3% 9.3% 23.7% 11.5% 4.3% 36.7% 28.6% 15.0% 22.2% 5.0% 19.4%
Fiorina 6.0% 3.4% 1.7% 7.0% 1.7% 1.9% 13.0% 1.3% 5.7% 3.7%
Huckabee 6.0% 2.5% 3.9% 1.7% 23.1% 1.3% 4.3% 30.0% 1.2% 4.5%
Kasich 8.3% 6.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 8.6% 5.0% 6.2% 7.5% 4.1%
Paul 15.3% 9.3% 1.7% 7.7% 13.0% 31.6% 6.4% 10.0% 8.6%
Rubio 42.9% 17.8% 36.7% 24.0% 28.8% 11.5% 34.8% 20.0% 23.5% 5.0% 18.8%
Santorum 10.7% .8% 1.7% 3.4% 1.9% 2.1% 5.0% 2.1%
Trump 3.6% 16.9% 21.7% 28.7% 15.3% 26.9% 13.0% 20.3% 20.7% 20.0% 24.7% 25.0% 20.1%
Undecided .8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 22.5% 2.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
First Choice * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No First Choice Bush 5.1% 4.4% 4.9%
Carson 9.0% 9.1% 9.0%
Christie 3.2% 2.5% 2.9%
Cruz 21.8% 15.1% 19.4%
Fiorina 3.5% 4.1% 3.7%
Huckabee 2.6% 7.6% 4.4%
Kasich 5.1% 2.2% 4.1%
Paul 11.6% 3.2% 8.6%
Rubio 22.8% 11.0% 18.6%
Santorum 2.6% 1.3% 2.1%
Trump 10.0% 38.2% 20.1%
Undecided 2.6% 1.3% 2.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Choice * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No First Choice Bush 3.0% 5.1% 4.4%
Carson 2.0% 12.5% 9.2%
Christie 3.7% 2.5%
Cruz 3.0% 20.8% 15.2%
Fiorina 6.0% 4.1%
Huckabee 1.0% 10.6% 7.6%
Kasich 3.2% 2.2%
Paul 4.6% 3.2%
Rubio 16.2% 11.1%
Santorum 1.4% .9%
Trump 90.0% 14.4% 38.3%
Undecided 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
First Choice * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ First Choice Bush 5.0% 1.9% 5.3% 6.9% 4.9%
Carson 9.9% 4.2% 7.3% 15.2% 9.0%
Christie 6.0% 3.9% 3.0%
Cruz 12.1% 19.8% 24.5% 16.9% 19.4%
Fiorina 5.0% 1.9% 4.3% 4.3% 3.8%
Huckabee 6.4% 5.7% 3.6% 3.0% 4.4%
Kasich 3.8% 4.6% 6.1% 4.1%
Paul 22.7% 17.9% .7% 1.7% 8.6%
Rubio 20.6% 16.0% 19.2% 19.0% 18.6%
Santorum 1.4% 3.6% 1.7% 2.0%
Trump 18.4% 25.0% 17.9% 19.0% 20.0%
Undecided 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Choice * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
First Choice Bush 4.8% 25.0% 4.9%
Carson 9.0% 12.5% 8.9%
Christie 3.0% 2.9%
Cruz 19.5% 25.0% 50.0% 19.6%
Fiorina 3.6% 12.5% 25.0% 3.7%
Huckabee 4.5% 4.4%
Kasich 4.1% 4.1%
Paul 8.6% 25.0% 25.0% 8.7%
Rubio 18.8% 12.5% 18.6%
Santorum 2.1% 2.0%
Trump 19.8% 37.5% 50.0% 20.0%
Undecided 2.2% 2.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
First Choice * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female First Choice Bush 5.3% 4.2% 4.8%
Carson 6.5% 12.2% 9.0%
Christie 2.6% 3.6% 3.0%
Cruz 19.6% 19.0% 19.3%
Fiorina 3.4% 4.4% 3.8%
Huckabee 5.0% 3.6% 4.4%
Kasich 4.8% 3.1% 4.0%
Paul 10.9% 5.5% 8.5%
Rubio 16.2% 21.6% 18.6%
Santorum 1.6% 2.9% 2.1%
Trump 21.6% 18.0% 20.0%
Undecided 2.6% 1.8% 2.2% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
First Choice * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative
Somewhat Conservative Moderate
Somewhat Liberal
Very Liberal
Don't know
First Choice Bush 3.1% 4.8% 7.4% 26.3% 4.8%
Carson 9.1% 10.6% 5.4% 12.0% 8.9%
Christie 1.6% 3.2% 6.7% 4.0% 3.0%
Cruz 31.9% 14.8% 2.7% 19.3%
Fiorina 3.9% 3.9% 1.3% 15.8% 8.0% 3.8%
Huckabee 9.4% 1.0% 4.4%
Kasich .5% 3.5% 12.8% 50.0% 10.5% 4.0%
Paul 4.2% 11.6% 8.7% 5.3% 44.0% 8.7%
Rubio 11.7% 24.5% 25.5% 25.0% 26.3% 18.5%
Santorum 3.1% 2.3% 2.1%
Trump 20.1% 16.5% 26.2% 25.0% 15.8% 32.0% 20.1%
Undecided 1.3% 3.2% 3.4% 2.2% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
First Choice * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No First Choice Bush 4.8% 5.0% 4.9%
Carson 13.1% 5.2% 8.9%
Christie 1.7% 4.1% 2.9%
Cruz 22.8% 16.4% 19.4%
Fiorina 3.3% 4.1% 3.7%
Huckabee 7.6% 1.5% 4.4%
Kasich 1.2% 6.7% 4.1%
Paul 7.4% 9.9% 8.7%
Rubio 16.4% 20.5% 18.5%
Santorum 1.4% 2.6% 2.0%
Trump 18.8% 21.3% 20.1%
Undecided 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Choice * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other
First Choice Bush 5.3% 3.8% 3.9% 5.4% 4.9%
Carson 7.4% 9.4% 13.4% 8.0% 8.9%
Christie 2.2% 2.8% 3.4% 6.3% 3.0%
Cruz 20.7% 13.2% 17.3% 22.3% 19.3%
Fiorina 3.9% 1.9% 3.4% 6.3% 3.8%
Huckabee 4.5% 1.9% 5.0% 6.3% 4.5%
Kasich 5.1% .9% 4.5% 1.8% 4.1%
Paul 5.9% 22.6% 5.0% 13.4% 8.7%
Rubio 19.0% 14.2% 22.9% 14.3% 18.6%
Santorum 1.2% 11.3% 2.0%
Trump 21.9% 17.9% 19.6% 15.2% 20.1%
Undecided 2.9% 1.7% .9% 2.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
First Choice * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile First Choice Bush 5.9% 2.0% 4.8%
Carson 9.3% 7.8% 8.9%
Christie 4.2% 3.0%
Cruz 22.9% 10.2% 19.4%
Fiorina 4.8% 1.2% 3.8%
Huckabee 4.2% 5.3% 4.5%
Kasich 5.6% 4.1%
Paul 1.7% 26.5% 8.6%
Rubio 19.1% 17.1% 18.6%
Santorum 2.5% 1.2% 2.1%
Trump 17.6% 26.5% 20.0%
Undecided 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Second Choice Bush 26.2% 3.8% 2.9% 15.2% 12.5% 19.4% 21.7% 47.4% 1.7% 9.5%
Carson 16.7% 2.5% 8.0% 23.3% 12.1% 7.5% 23.7% 12.7% 5.3% 11.2% 13.3%
Christie 26.2% 5.1% 8.0% 1.2% 3.0% 11.1% 13.3% 5.3% 7.3% 6.8%
Cruz 2.4% 25.3% 4.0% 7.0% 27.3% 12.5% 15.8% 18.7% 20.8% 5.3% 14.6%
Fiorina 9.5% 8.9% 8.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 1.3% 10.2% 10.5% 5.1% 10.5% 6.7%
Huckabee 8.9% 3.5% 3.0% 30.0% 2.8% 5.3% 3.6% 5.3% 7.9% 5.9%
Kasich 4.8% 1.3% 8.0% .6% 9.1% 3.9% 4.8% 1.7% 2.6%
Paul 2.5% 16.9% 3.0% 2.5% 5.6% 32.9% 9.0% 15.8% 8.9%
Rubio 9.5% 19.0% 56.0% 23.3% 24.2% 15.0% 33.3% 11.8% 15.8% 16.3% 15.8%
Santorum 2.5% 1.7% 15.0% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3%
Trump 4.8% 12.7% 8.0% 10.5% 2.5% 13.9% 11.4% 11.2% 21.1% 9.2%
Undecided 7.6% 8.0% 1.2% 8.3% 5.3% 1.2% 10.5% 5.6% 47.4% 4.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Second Choice Bush 11.9% 5.1% 9.5%
Carson 14.6% 10.8% 13.2%
Christie 6.8% 6.3% 6.7%
Cruz 15.4% 12.7% 14.5%
Fiorina 7.4% 5.4% 6.7%
Huckabee 4.6% 7.9% 5.8%
Kasich 2.5% 2.9% 2.6%
Paul 7.7% 11.1% 8.9%
Rubio 16.3% 15.6% 16.0%
Santorum 1.9% 3.2% 2.4%
Trump 7.2% 12.7% 9.2%
Undecided 3.7% 6.3% 4.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Choice * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No Second Choice Bush 2.0% 6.5% 5.0%
Carson 10.9% 11.1% 11.0%
Christie 7.9% 5.5% 6.3%
Cruz 6.9% 15.7% 12.9%
Fiorina 6.9% 4.6% 5.3%
Huckabee 6.9% 8.3% 7.9%
Kasich 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
Paul 12.9% 10.6% 11.3%
Rubio 7.9% 18.9% 15.4%
Santorum 2.0% 3.7% 3.1%
Trump 23.8% 7.4% 12.6%
Undecided 8.9% 5.1% 6.3% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Second Choice Bush 13.6% 7.5% 8.9% 9.5% 9.5%
Carson 2.1% 18.7% 12.9% 15.2% 13.2%
Christie 2.9% 2.3% 9.6% 9.1% 6.7%
Cruz 25.0% 16.8% 8.9% 13.4% 14.5%
Fiorina .7% 5.1% 8.6% 8.7% 6.5%
Huckabee 4.3% 5.6% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7%
Kasich 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% 3.5% 2.6%
Paul 15.7% 14.0% 6.3% 3.5% 8.9%
Rubio 17.1% 10.3% 18.2% 17.3% 15.9%
Santorum 1.4% 4.3% 2.2% 2.4%
Trump 13.6% 8.4% 9.6% 6.9% 9.2%
Undecided 2.9% 7.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Choice * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Second Choice Bush 9.3% 28.6% 9.4%
Carson 13.3% 33.3% 13.2%
Christie 6.8% 14.3% 6.8%
Cruz 14.5% 14.3% 33.3% 14.5%
Fiorina 6.4% 14.3% 25.0% 6.6%
Huckabee 5.9% 5.8%
Kasich 2.6% 25.0% 2.7%
Paul 9.1% 25.0% 9.0%
Rubio 16.0% 14.3% 25.0% 15.9%
Santorum 2.3% 33.3% 2.4%
Trump 9.2% 14.3% 9.2%
Undecided 4.7% 4.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female Second Choice Bush 7.7% 11.5% 9.4%
Carson 10.3% 17.3% 13.3%
Christie 6.3% 7.1% 6.7%
Cruz 14.9% 13.9% 14.4%
Fiorina 6.5% 6.8% 6.7%
Huckabee 7.3% 3.4% 5.6%
Kasich 2.4% 2.9% 2.6%
Paul 11.1% 6.3% 9.0%
Rubio 15.5% 16.8% 16.0%
Santorum 1.6% 3.4% 2.4%
Trump 11.3% 6.5% 9.3%
Undecided 5.0% 4.2% 4.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative
Somewhat Conservative Moderate
Somewhat Liberal
Very Liberal
Don't know
Second Choice Bush 6.0% 10.4% 15.9% 20.0% 5.3% 8.0% 9.3%
Carson 15.5% 15.9% 5.3% 20.0% 5.3% 13.3%
Christie 1.6% 8.4% 14.6% 10.5% 16.0% 6.7%
Cruz 17.8% 15.2% 4.0% 20.0% 26.3% 8.0% 14.5%
Fiorina 7.1% 3.9% 10.6% 15.8% 6.5%
Huckabee 8.1% 5.5% 1.3% 20.0% 5.7%
Kasich .5% 2.9% 6.0% 15.8% 2.6%
Paul 10.5% 5.2% 7.3% 5.3% 48.0% 9.0%
Rubio 15.5% 16.8% 19.2% 5.3% 8.0% 16.1%
Santorum 3.7% 2.3% 2.4%
Trump 10.8% 9.1% 8.6% 9.2%
Undecided 2.9% 4.5% 7.3% 20.0% 10.5% 12.0% 4.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No Second Choice Bush 7.3% 11.4% 9.4%
Carson 15.3% 11.2% 13.1%
Christie 5.7% 7.7% 6.7%
Cruz 15.6% 13.5% 14.5%
Fiorina 7.5% 5.8% 6.6%
Huckabee 6.4% 5.2% 5.7%
Kasich 2.4% 2.8% 2.6%
Paul 7.1% 10.7% 9.0%
Rubio 17.0% 15.0% 16.0%
Santorum 3.1% 1.7% 2.4%
Trump 8.3% 10.1% 9.2%
Undecided 4.5% 4.9% 4.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Choice * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other
Second Choice Bush 10.0% 9.3% 11.8% 3.5% 9.4%
Carson 11.4% 16.7% 11.8% 20.4% 13.3%
Christie 6.1% 12.0% 5.1% 7.1% 6.7%
Cruz 14.1% 14.8% 16.9% 11.5% 14.4%
Fiorina 5.3% 4.6% 9.6% 9.7% 6.6%
Huckabee 5.7% 2.8% 9.6% 1.8% 5.6%
Kasich 3.3% 2.8% 1.1% 2.7% 2.7%
Paul 7.6% 11.1% 7.9% 14.2% 8.9%
Rubio 15.3% 14.8% 17.4% 17.7% 16.0%
Santorum 3.1% 2.8% .6% 3.5% 2.6%
Trump 12.2% 2.8% 7.3% 4.4% 9.1%
Undecided 5.9% 5.6% 1.1% 3.5% 4.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Second Choice * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile Second Choice Bush 10.9% 5.3% 9.4%
Carson 13.6% 12.7% 13.3%
Christie 7.3% 4.9% 6.7%
Cruz 12.3% 20.1% 14.4%
Fiorina 7.6% 4.1% 6.7%
Huckabee 5.6% 5.7% 5.6%
Kasich 3.6% 2.6%
Paul 5.8% 17.6% 9.0%
Rubio 17.1% 12.7% 15.9%
Santorum 3.3% 2.4%
Trump 9.5% 8.6% 9.3%
Undecided 3.4% 8.2% 4.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Watch Debate * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Watch Debate Yes 67.4% 63.8% 69.2% 72.1% 60.6% 38.5% 80.6% 86.8% 78.8% 78.9% 32.0% 78.9% 64.2%
No 32.6% 36.3% 30.8% 27.9% 39.4% 61.5% 19.4% 13.2% 21.2% 21.1% 68.0% 21.1% 35.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Debate * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Watch Debate Yes 81.0% 70.9% 66.1% 68.8% 71.2% 51.0% 60.9% 55.7% 65.5% 52.4% 50.6% 51.2% 64.4%
No 19.0% 29.1% 33.9% 31.3% 28.8% 49.0% 39.1% 44.3% 34.5% 47.6% 49.4% 48.8% 35.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Watch Debate * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No Watch Debate No 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Debate * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Watch Debate Yes 67.6% 67.0% 62.6% 61.9% 64.3%
No 32.4% 33.0% 37.4% 38.1% 35.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Debate * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Watch Debate Yes 64.4% 44.4% 60.0% 75.0% 64.3%
No 35.6% 55.6% 40.0% 25.0% 35.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Debate * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female Watch Debate Yes 62.6% 66.7% 64.3%
No 37.4% 33.3% 35.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Debate * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative
Somewhat Conservative Moderate
Somewhat Liberal
Very Liberal
Don't know
Watch Debate Yes 62.0% 70.2% 66.0% 50.0% 22.2% 48.0% 64.3%
No 38.0% 29.8% 34.0% 50.0% 77.8% 52.0% 35.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Debate * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No
Watch Debate Yes 65.3% 63.4% 64.3%
No 34.7% 36.6% 35.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Watch Debate * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other
Watch Debate Yes 61.1% 69.2% 66.9% 69.0% 64.3%
No 38.9% 30.8% 33.1% 31.0% 35.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Debate * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile
Watch Debate Yes 63.2% 66.9% 64.3%
No 36.8% 33.1% 35.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Watch Trump Event * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Watch Trump Event
Yes 21.4% 6.9% 6.3% 4.2% 74.4% 25.0% 31.6%
No 78.6% 93.1% 100.0% 93.8% 100.0% 95.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 25.6% 75.0% 68.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Trump Event * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Watch Trump Event
Yes 12.5% 31.4% 40.0% 17.1% 41.2% 28.0% 33.3% 36.1% 16.3% 20.0% 60.0% 45.0% 31.8%
No 87.5% 68.6% 60.0% 82.9% 58.8% 72.0% 66.7% 63.9% 83.7% 80.0% 40.0% 55.0% 68.2% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Watch Trump Event * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
No
Watch Trump Event
Yes 31.6% 31.6%
No 68.4% 68.4% Total
100.0% 100.0%
Watch Trump Event * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Watch Trump Event
Yes 34.8% 58.6% 22.1% 20.5% 31.5%
No 65.2% 41.4% 77.9% 79.5% 68.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Trump Event * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Watch Trump Event
Yes 31.7% 20.0% 100.0% 31.6%
No 68.3% 80.0% 100.0% 68.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Trump Event * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female
Watch Trump Event
Yes 33.9% 28.3% 31.6%
No 66.1% 71.7% 68.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Trump Event * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative
Somewhat Conservative Moderate
Somewhat Liberal
Very Liberal
Don't know
Watch Trump Event
Yes 27.6% 35.9% 33.3% 42.9% 38.5% 31.9%
No 72.4% 64.1% 66.7% 100.0% 57.1% 61.5% 68.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Trump Event * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No Watch Trump Event
Yes 32.9% 30.4% 31.5%
No 67.1% 69.6% 68.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Watch Trump Event * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other
Watch Trump Event
Yes 34.2% 40.6% 27.1% 17.1% 31.6%
No 65.8% 59.4% 72.9% 82.9% 68.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Watch Trump Event * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile Watch Trump Event
Yes 21.6% 61.3% 31.6%
No 78.4% 38.8% 68.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Age * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Age 18-29 16.3% 17.5% 9.9% 20.6% 23.1% 42.1% 17.6% 14.7% 15.9%
30-44 9.3% 11.3% 24.4% 11.8% 30.8% 22.2% 50.0% 20.6% 16.7% 29.9% 26.3% 23.9%
45-64 37.2% 27.5% 66.7% 43.0% 38.2% 28.2% 38.9% 2.6% 35.2% 61.1% 30.5% 47.4% 34.1%
65+ 37.2% 43.8% 33.3% 22.7% 29.4% 17.9% 38.9% 5.3% 26.7% 22.2% 24.9% 26.3% 26.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Age 18-29 22.6% 2.6% 6.8% 27.1% 1.7% 11.8% 13.0% 27.8% 17.0% 23.2% 9.3% 15.8%
30-44 19.0% 34.2% 8.5% 27.9% 19.0% 23.5% 17.4% 38.0% 15.6% 14.3% 22.0% 39.5% 24.1%
45-64 32.1% 33.3% 49.2% 20.9% 44.8% 35.3% 34.8% 24.1% 39.0% 61.9% 35.4% 27.9% 34.0%
65+ 26.2% 29.9% 35.6% 24.0% 34.5% 29.4% 34.8% 10.1% 28.4% 23.8% 19.5% 23.3% 26.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Age * Watch Debate Crosstabulation % within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Age
18-29 16.8% 14.5% 16.0%
30-44 24.9% 22.1% 23.9%
45-64 33.2% 35.6% 34.0%
65+ 25.1% 27.8% 26.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No
Age 18-29 16.0% 13.8% 14.5%
30-44 41.0% 13.4% 22.1%
45-64 25.0% 40.6% 35.6%
65+ 18.0% 32.3% 27.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Age 18-29 15.5% 44.4% 33.3% 40.0% 16.0%
30-44 23.8% 33.3% 66.7% 20.0% 24.0%
45-64 34.4% 22.2% 20.0% 34.0%
65+ 26.3% 20.0% 25.9% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female Age
18-29 20.2% 10.5% 16.0%
30-44 26.5% 20.5% 23.9%
45-64 30.7% 38.3% 34.0%
65+ 22.6% 30.7% 26.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Age * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative Somewhat
Conservative Moderate Somewhat Liberal Very
Liberal Don't know
Age 18-29 17.6% 11.0% 13.4% 55.6% 41.7% 15.9%
30-44 19.4% 27.5% 28.2% 22.2% 29.2% 24.0%
45-64 36.0% 34.0% 34.2% 22.2% 12.5% 33.9%
65+ 27.0% 27.5% 24.2% 100.0% 16.7% 26.2% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No
Age 18-29 16.8% 15.2% 16.0%
30-44 24.6% 23.4% 24.0%
45-64 29.9% 37.8% 34.0%
65+ 28.7% 23.6% 26.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Age * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other
Age 18-29 15.8% 20.8% 14.0% 15.0% 15.9%
30-44 24.4% 25.5% 23.5% 21.2% 23.9%
45-64 34.2% 28.3% 36.9% 34.5% 34.1%
65+ 25.6% 25.5% 25.7% 29.2% 26.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile
Age 18-29 9.0% 34.3% 16.0%
30-44 8.4% 64.5% 23.9%
45-64 46.6% 1.2% 34.0%
65+ 36.0% 26.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Race * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Race White 97.7% 98.7% 100.0% 97.7% 93.9% 100.0% 100.0% 97.4% 99.4% 100.0% 97.2% 100.0% 98.2% African - American 1.3% 1.2% 3.0% .6% 1.7% .9% Hispanic / Latino 3.0% 1.3% 1.1% .5%
Other 2.3% 1.2% 1.3% .5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Race * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Race White 97.6% 99.1% 98.3% 98.4% 96.6% 100.0% 95.8% 98.8% 98.6% 95.2% 98.8% 100.0% 98.4% African - American 2.4% 1.7% .8% 1.7% .7% 1.2% .8% Hispanic / Latino .9% .8% 4.8% .3%
Other 1.7% 4.2% 1.3% .7% .5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Race * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Race
White 98.2% 97.5% 98.0% African - American .7% 1.6% 1.0% Hispanic / Latino .5% .6% .6%
Other .5% .3% .5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Race * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No Race
White 98.0% 97.7% 97.8% African - American 1.0% 1.9% 1.6% Hispanic / Latino 1.0% .3%
Other .5% .3% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Race * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Race
White 95.1% 97.2% 99.0% 99.6% 98.1% African - American 2.8% 1.4% .7% 1.0% Hispanic / Latino .7% .9% .3%
Other 1.4% .5% .3% .4% .6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Race * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female Race
White 98.4% 97.4% 98.0% African - American .8% 1.3% 1.0% Hispanic / Latino .2% .8% .5%
Other .6% .5% .6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Race * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative Somewhat
Conservative Moderate Somewhat
Liberal Very
Liberal Don't know Race
White 98.4% 99.0% 96.0% 100.0% 88.9% 96.0% 98.0% African - American .5% .6% 2.7% 5.6% 1.0% Hispanic / Latino .5% .7% .3%
Other .5% .3% .7% 5.6% 4.0% .7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Race * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No Race
White 98.3% 97.8% 98.1% African - American 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% Hispanic / Latino .5% .4% .5%
Other .2% .6% .5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Race * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other
Race White 98.2% 98.1% 99.4% 94.7% 98.0% African - American .8% 1.9% 1.8% .9% Hispanic / Latino .4% .6% 1.8% .6%
Other .6% 1.8% .6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Race * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile Race
White 97.7% 99.2% 98.1% African - American 1.1% .4% .9% Hispanic / Latino .5% .4% .5%
Other .8% .6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Gender * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Gender Male 62.8% 41.3% 48.1% 57.6% 50.0% 64.1% 66.7% 72.4% 49.7% 42.1% 61.2% 65.0% 56.8%
Female 37.2% 58.8% 51.9% 42.4% 50.0% 35.9% 33.3% 27.6% 50.3% 57.9% 38.8% 35.0% 43.2% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Gender Male 47.0% 44.1% 54.2% 58.6% 55.9% 74.0% 52.2% 70.0% 54.9% 38.1% 69.5% 61.0% 56.9%
Female 53.0% 55.9% 45.8% 41.4% 44.1% 26.0% 47.8% 30.0% 45.1% 61.9% 30.5% 39.0% 43.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Gender * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Gender
Male 55.4% 59.8% 57.0%
Female 44.6% 40.2% 43.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No Gender
Male 64.0% 57.9% 59.8%
Female 36.0% 42.1% 40.2% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Gender
Male 71.8% 63.2% 51.5% 49.4% 57.0%
Female 28.2% 36.8% 48.5% 50.6% 43.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender * Race Crosstabulation % within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Gender Male 57.2% 44.4% 25.0% 60.0% 56.9%
Female 42.8% 55.6% 75.0% 40.0% 43.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Gender * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative Somewhat
Conservative Moderate Somewhat
Liberal Very
Liberal Don't know Gender
Male 56.7% 62.3% 51.7% 50.0% 22.2% 54.2% 57.0%
Female 43.3% 37.7% 48.3% 50.0% 77.8% 45.8% 43.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No Gender
Male 54.7% 58.9% 56.9%
Female 45.3% 41.1% 43.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other Gender
Male 60.3% 44.9% 62.4% 45.6% 57.0%
Female 39.7% 55.1% 37.6% 54.4% 43.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile Gender
Male 52.1% 69.8% 57.0%
Female 47.9% 30.2% 43.0% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Ideology * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Ideology Very Conservative 27.9% 44.3% 22.2% 70.9% 44.1% 92.3% 5.6% 20.8% 27.3% 63.2% 43.0% 25.0% 43.0% Somewhat Conservative 34.9% 41.8% 37.0% 26.7% 35.3% 7.7% 30.6% 46.8% 46.1% 36.8% 28.5% 50.0% 34.8%
Moderate 25.6% 10.1% 37.0% 2.3% 5.9% 52.8% 16.9% 23.0% 21.8% 25.0% 16.7% Somewhat Liberal 5.6% .6% .6% .4%
Very Liberal 11.6% 8.8% 5.6% 1.3% 3.0% 1.7% 2.1%
Don't know 3.8% 3.7% 5.9% 14.3% 4.5% 2.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ideology * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Ideology Very Conservative 27.7% 50.0% 10.0% 52.7% 46.6% 60.8% 8.7% 50.0% 41.3% 66.7% 50.0% 26.2% 42.8% Somewhat Conservative 38.6% 41.5% 43.3% 36.4% 20.7% 33.3% 39.1% 20.0% 36.4% 33.3% 34.1% 33.3% 34.7%
Moderate 28.9% 6.8% 36.7% 4.7% 27.6% 3.9% 39.1% 13.8% 20.3% 15.9% 26.2% 17.0% Somewhat Liberal 1.2% .8% .8% 2.0% 2.4% .6%
Very Liberal 1.2% .8% 3.3% 3.9% 5.2% 13.0% 1.3% .7% 4.8% 2.1%
Don't know 2.4% 6.7% 1.6% 15.0% 1.4% 7.1% 2.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Ideology * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Ideology Very
Conservative 41.5% 45.7% 43.0% Somewhat Conservative 38.0% 29.0% 34.8%
Moderate 17.3% 16.1% 16.9% Somewhat Liberal .4% .6% .5%
Very Liberal .7% 4.4% 2.0%
Don't know 2.1% 4.1% 2.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ideology * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No Ideology Very
Conservative 39.6% 48.6% 45.7% Somewhat Conservative 32.7% 27.3% 29.0%
Moderate 16.8% 15.7% 16.1% Somewhat Liberal .9% .6%
Very Liberal 5.9% 3.7% 4.4%
Don't know 5.0% 3.7% 4.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ideology * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Ideology Very
Conservative 47.5% 34.9% 45.7% 44.4% 43.1% Somewhat Conservative 24.1% 40.1% 35.0% 36.6% 34.9%
Moderate 14.2% 19.8% 17.0% 15.5% 16.8% Somewhat Liberal 1.7% .5%
Very Liberal 7.1% 1.9% 1.3% 2.0%
Don't know 7.1% 3.3% 1.0% 1.7% 2.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ideology * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Ideology Very Conservative 43.2% 22.2% 66.7% 33.3% 43.0% Somewhat Conservative 35.2% 22.2% 16.7% 34.8%
Moderate 16.6% 44.4% 33.3% 16.7% 16.9% Somewhat Liberal .5% .5%
Very Liberal 1.8% 11.1% 16.7% 2.0%
Don't know 2.8% 16.7% 2.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Ideology * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female Ideology Very
Conservative 42.8% 43.3% 43.0% Somewhat Conservative 38.2% 30.7% 35.0%
Moderate 15.2% 18.9% 16.8% Somewhat Liberal .4% .5% .5%
Very Liberal .8% 3.7% 2.0%
Don't know 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ideology * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No Ideology Very
Conservative 57.2% 30.1% 43.0% Somewhat Conservative 29.2% 40.0% 34.9%
Moderate 9.5% 23.4% 16.8% Somewhat Liberal .2% .6% .5%
Very Liberal 1.9% 2.2% 2.0%
Don't know 1.9% 3.7% 2.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ideology * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other
Ideology Very Conservative 46.3% 32.4% 41.6% 40.9% 43.0% Somewhat Conservative 36.5% 35.2% 30.9% 33.9% 34.9%
Moderate 12.1% 16.7% 26.4% 21.7% 16.8% Somewhat Liberal .4% .6% .9% .4%
Very Liberal 3.1% .9% .6% 1.7% 2.1%
Don't know 1.6% 14.8% .9% 2.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ideology * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile
Ideology Very Conservative 48.5% 28.7% 43.1% Somewhat Conservative 32.3% 41.8% 34.9%
Moderate 15.9% 19.3% 16.8% Somewhat Liberal .6% .5%
Very Liberal 1.6% 3.3% 2.0%
Don't know 1.1% 7.0% 2.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Evangelism * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Evangelism Yes 46.5% 69.6% 26.9% 55.8% 42.4% 82.1% 13.9% 40.3% 42.1% 33.3% 44.4% 35.0% 47.6%
No 53.5% 30.4% 73.1% 44.2% 57.6% 17.9% 86.1% 59.7% 57.9% 66.7% 55.6% 65.0% 52.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Evangelism * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Evangelism Yes 36.9% 55.6% 40.0% 51.2% 54.2% 52.9% 43.5% 37.5% 50.7% 61.9% 42.7% 45.2% 47.6%
No 63.1% 44.4% 60.0% 48.8% 45.8% 47.1% 56.5% 62.5% 49.3% 38.1% 57.3% 54.8% 52.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Evangelism * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Evangelism
Yes 48.2% 46.2% 47.5%
No 51.8% 53.8% 52.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Evangelism * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No Evangelism
Yes 48.0% 45.2% 46.1%
No 52.0% 54.8% 53.9% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Evangelism * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Evangelism
Yes 50.0% 48.8% 41.7% 52.4% 47.5%
No 50.0% 51.2% 58.3% 47.6% 52.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Evangelism * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Evangelism Yes 47.6% 44.4% 50.0% 25.0% 47.5%
No 52.4% 55.6% 50.0% 75.0% 52.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Evangelism * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female
Evangelism Yes 45.7% 50.0% 47.6%
No 54.3% 50.0% 52.4% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Evangelism * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative Somewhat
Conservative Moderate Somewhat
Liberal Very
Liberal Don't know Evangelism
Yes 63.3% 39.8% 26.8% 25.0% 44.4% 32.0% 47.5%
No 36.7% 60.2% 73.2% 75.0% 55.6% 68.0% 52.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Evangelism * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other Evangelism
Yes 50.4% 27.1% 47.2% 54.9% 47.5%
No 49.6% 72.9% 52.8% 45.1% 52.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Evangelism * Mode Crosstabulation % within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile Evangelism
Yes 48.3% 45.5% 47.5%
No 51.7% 54.5% 52.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Caucus Location * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Caucus Location School 60.5% 45.6% 40.7% 59.1% 55.9% 55.0% 69.4% 37.7% 56.4% 33.3% 60.1% 77.8% 55.2%
Church 9.3% 12.7% 11.1% 8.2% 5.9% 5.0% 2.8% 31.2% 9.1% 66.7% 10.7% 12.0% Community Center 16.3% 30.4% 22.2% 18.1% 17.6% 22.5% 22.2% 11.7% 24.8% 19.7% 16.7% 20.2%
Other 14.0% 11.4% 25.9% 14.6% 20.6% 17.5% 5.6% 19.5% 9.7% 9.6% 5.6% 12.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Caucus Location * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Caucus Location School 58.3% 47.5% 50.0% 53.9% 44.1% 56.0% 66.7% 46.8% 52.8% 65.2% 74.1% 70.7% 55.1%
Church 11.9% 15.3% 21.7% 12.5% 8.5% 6.0% 12.5% 15.2% 11.3% 13.0% 3.7% 14.6% 12.1% Community Center 25.0% 17.8% 15.0% 23.4% 28.8% 34.0% 8.3% 17.7% 21.8% 4.3% 16.0% 4.9% 20.0%
Other 4.8% 19.5% 13.3% 10.2% 18.6% 4.0% 12.5% 20.3% 14.1% 17.4% 6.2% 9.8% 12.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Caucus Location * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Caucus Location School 52.5% 59.9% 55.1%
Church 13.0% 10.4% 12.1% Community Center 20.9% 18.6% 20.1%
Other 13.7% 11.0% 12.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Caucus Location * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No
Caucus Location School 65.0% 57.9% 60.1%
Church 13.0% 8.8% 10.1% Community Center 16.0% 19.9% 18.7%
Other 6.0% 13.4% 11.1% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Caucus Location * Age Crosstabulation % within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Caucus Location School 54.6% 56.1% 55.3% 54.1% 55.1%
Church 15.6% 12.7% 9.9% 11.7% 12.0% Community Center 17.7% 19.8% 21.9% 19.9% 20.2%
Other 12.1% 11.3% 12.9% 14.3% 12.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Caucus Location * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Caucus Location School 55.3% 50.0% 40.0% 60.0% 55.2%
Church 12.0% 25.0% 12.0% Community Center 20.3% 20.0% 20.0%
Other 12.4% 25.0% 40.0% 40.0% 12.9% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Caucus Location * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female Caucus Location School 58.3% 50.8% 55.1%
Church 9.5% 15.4% 12.0% Community Center 21.9% 17.5% 20.0%
Other 10.3% 16.2% 12.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Caucus Location * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative Somewhat
Conservative Moderate Somewhat
Liberal Very
Liberal Don't know Caucus Location School 59.2% 57.4% 39.6% 50.0% 78.9% 32.0% 54.9%
Church 9.2% 12.3% 12.1% 5.3% 64.0% 12.1% Community Center 19.4% 17.7% 31.5% 25.0% 5.3% 20.0%
Other 12.3% 12.6% 16.8% 25.0% 10.5% 4.0% 12.9% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Caucus Location * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No Caucus Location School 58.4% 52.0% 55.1%
Church 6.9% 16.8% 12.1% Community Center 20.0% 20.2% 20.1%
Other 14.7% 11.0% 12.8% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Caucus Location * Mode Crosstabulation
% within Mode
Mode
Total
Landline Mobile
Caucus Location School 56.5% 51.4% 55.1%
Church 10.0% 17.6% 12.1% Community Center 20.6% 18.8% 20.1%
Other 12.9% 12.2% 12.7% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Mode * First Choice Crosstabulation
% within First Choice
First Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Mode Landline 88.4% 75.9% 100.0% 85.5% 91.2% 67.5% 100.0% 14.5% 74.5% 84.2% 63.5% 73.7% 72.4%
Mobile 11.6% 24.1% 14.5% 8.8% 32.5% 85.5% 25.5% 15.8% 36.5% 26.3% 27.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mode * Second Choice Crosstabulation
% within Second Choice
Second Choice
Total Bush Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Santorum Trump Undecided
Mode Landline 84.3% 73.7% 79.7% 61.7% 83.1% 72.0% 100.0% 46.3% 78.0% 100.0% 74.4% 52.4% 72.5%
Mobile 15.7% 26.3% 20.3% 38.3% 16.9% 28.0% 53.8% 22.0% 25.6% 47.6% 27.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Mode * Watch Debate Crosstabulation
% within Watch Debate
Watch Debate
Total
Yes No Mode
Landline 71.2% 74.4% 72.4%
Mobile 28.8% 25.6% 27.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mode * Watch Trump Event Crosstabulation
% within Watch Trump Event
Watch Trump Event
Total
Yes No Mode
Landline 51.0% 85.6% 74.7%
Mobile 49.0% 14.4% 25.3% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mode * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
Total
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Mode
Landline 40.8% 25.5% 99.0% 100.0% 72.4%
Mobile 59.2% 74.5% 1.0% 27.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mode * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Total
White African - American
Hispanic / Latino Other
Mode Landline 72.2% 87.5% 75.0% 100.0% 72.5%
Mobile 27.8% 12.5% 25.0% 27.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mode * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Total
Male Female Mode
Landline 66.2% 80.6% 72.4%
Mobile 33.8% 19.4% 27.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Iowa Republican Caucus Poll
1/31/16
Mode * Ideology Crosstabulation
% within Ideology
Ideology
Total
Very Conservative Somewhat
Conservative Moderate Somewhat
Liberal Very
Liberal Don't know
Mode Landline 81.6% 67.0% 68.5% 100.0% 55.6% 29.2% 72.4%
Mobile 18.4% 33.0% 31.5% 44.4% 70.8% 27.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mode * Evangelism Crosstabulation
% within Evangelism
Evangelism
Total
Yes No
Mode Landline 73.6% 71.4% 72.5%
Mobile 26.4% 28.6% 27.5% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mode * Caucus Location Crosstabulation
% within Caucus Location
Caucus Location
Total
School Church Community
Center Other Mode
Landline 74.2% 59.8% 74.2% 73.5% 72.4%
Mobile 25.8% 40.2% 25.8% 26.5% 27.6% Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
![Social media buzz around U.S elections 2012- 1 [IOWA CAUCUS]](https://static.fdocuments.in/doc/165x107/554ef558b4c90577698b4738/social-media-buzz-around-us-elections-2012-1-iowa-caucus.jpg)
