The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC Winter Weather Experiment
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Transcript of The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC Winter Weather Experiment
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
The Inaugural Hydrometeorological The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed Testbed – HPC HPC
Winter Weather ExperimentWinter Weather Experiment
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David Novak
Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Ed Danaher, Dan Petersen, Rich Bann, Mike Musher,
Chris Hedge
and
Many participants and contributors
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Hydrometeorological Testbed Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC HPC
Goal: To accelerate R2O-O2R to enhance HPC services
Roles:• Identify and test new techniques
to improve HPC forecasts• Provide training in new techniques to
HPC forecasters• Host visiting forecasters and scientists
Principal Collaborators:• Other NOAA Testbeds (e.g. HWT, AWT)• Forecasters and academia
Description
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A component of the NOAA HMT
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Internal deterministic 6-h snow /sleet /ZR / SLR grids & graphicshttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/internal/
Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion (QPFHSD)
HPC Winter Weather DeskHPC Winter Weather DeskOverviewOverview
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Public products: 24 & 48 h probabilities for:
-Snow/Sleet/ Freezing Rain-Probabilities computed from deterministic forecast and model spread
Track forecasts for surface lows associated w/ significant winter weather
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment
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•14 participants (WFO, SPC, AWC, HPC, EMC, ESRL, and COMET)
Approach•Create snow and ice accumulation forecasts using experimental guidance
•Write “confidence discussion”
•Subjectively evaluate experimental guidance
Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011
•Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount?
•Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?
Goals
Participants
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
A Great Time to Have an ExperimentA Great Time to Have an Experiment
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•Several major winter weather events
•Period of unusually low hemispheric predictability from late January – early February
Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011
Mean 500 hPa height Dec 24-28, 2010 Jan 9-13, 2011
Jan 26-27, 2011 Feb 1-3, 2011
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Experimental DataExperimental Data
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•Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount?
Ensemble
Goals
High ResolutionResolution Fields Day 1 Day 2
HRW-ARW 4 km Amounts, Ptype,Sim Reflect
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HRW-NMM 4 km Amounts, Ptype,Sim Reflect
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NMMB nest (new NAM) 4 km Amounts, Ptype,Sim Reflect
x x
Resolution Fields Day 1 Day 2
SREF 32 km MeansMax/Min amountsProbabilities
x x
HPC Superensemble 32 km Mean amounts x x
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount?
HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment
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HRW-NMM ObservedHRW-ARWExperimental NAM
Pros: •Improved orographic precipitation, lake effect
•Visualizing temporal evolutions
•Providing unique fields (simulated reflectivity)
•Explicit prediction of mesoscale bands
Cons:•Overall amounts not superior to operational
•Little additional confidence in band location
BandBandBand
Neutral
Useful
Not Useful
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Feb 2-4, 2011 SnowstormFeb 2-4, 2011 Snowstorm
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Simulated Reflectivity experimental 4 km NMMB model (to become operational this fall)
03Z Tuesday Feb 01 to 12Z Wednesday Feb 02
Low Tracks
Snowfall
Obs
NAM
Exp NAM
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Confidence: “above average confidence that an area near Chicago will receive up to 20" of snow.”
Storm track: “Fairly confident of storm track, though high resolution models seem to deepen low center more and pull it further north and west into the cold air.”
Snow Probs: >12": 80%>20": 20%
HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment•Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather
uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center10
Forecast team’s confidence was qualitatively correlated to snowfall errors
When forecast teams rated their snow forecast confidence as low (high), there were generally larger (smaller) errors
HMT-HPC Winter Weather ExperimentHMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment•Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather
uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Operational ImpactsOperational ImpactsNWPNWP
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Diagnosed “strange band” in HRW-NMM
Fixed before implementation
Identified NAM snow depth limitations
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•Exposed forecasters to cutting-edge tools and techniques
•Increased confidence in using NMMB (upgraded NAM) for winter weather forecasting.
•Revealed substantial limitations of ice accumulation analysis used for verification. Exploring alternatives.
•Revising guidelines to include confidence information in HPC Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion.
Operational ImpactsOperational ImpactsHPC Winter Weather DeskHPC Winter Weather Desk
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center13
2012 Experiment Plans 2012 Experiment Plans
Assess, quantify, and communicate uncertainty• Explore how humans can add value to probabilistic products• Evaluate experimental ensemble systems from EMC, HMT and AFWA• Evaluation of ensemble clusters and QPF bias-correction
Evaluate societal impacts• Explore categorizing impacts of forecasts (low, moderate, high, historic)• Calculate impact by using joint probabilities
Expand participation• Goal of 3 forecasters per region, NCEP, NSSL, ESRL involvement
Jan 9 – Feb 10 2012
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SummarySummary
Inaugural HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment conducted
Participants had a neutral-to-positive view of the operational utility of high resolution models for winter weather
Human forecast teams showed skill in anticipating errors in their forecasts (confidence – skill relationship)
2012 Experiment planned for Jan-Feb 2012
If interested, contact [email protected]
Full detailed report with recommendations at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/HMT_HPC_WWE_Summary_Final.pdf